Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 - Final Profit +127.57 pts

[StuSimmy]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Two nice winners lately fintron :clap

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Cheers Stu :ok 4.15 Hamilton BLACK JACARI was formerly with Alan King and having won off a mark only 3 lb lower in this sphere with his former trainer he is potentially well handicapped here today. His fitness has to be taken on trust for what is his first run of the season but he ran well on his first run of the 2008 season to suggest he can go well fresh and at the price I feel he is worth a little bet, especially since he wasn't suited with the way the race unfolded when behing Callisto Moon on his last flat start. Advised bet: Black Jacari 16/1 Betfred, 0.5 pt each-way (3 places, 1/5 odds)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Results update for this week: 26/4 Roker Park -1 26/4 Cmon You Irons -1 28/4 Electrolyser +0.75 (Placed 10/1 EW) 28/4 Dazzling Light +0.19 (Placed 11/2 EW) 28/4 Reignier -1 28/4 Gazboolou +2.63 (Placed 25/1 EW) 29/4 Maze -1 30/4 Dandino +7.5 (WON 12/1) 30/4 Mafeking -1 30/4 Desert Dreamer -1 1/5 Ithinkbest -1 1/5 Fencing Master -1 1/5 Total Gallery -1 1/5 Jack My Boy +12.5 (WON 20/1 EW) 1/5 Dubai Dynamo -1 1/5 Lucky Art +0.4 (Placed 9/1 EW) 1/5 Brierty +1.3 (Placed 20/1 EW - 35 pt R4) 2/5 Pipette -1 2/5 Indian Skipper/Hawkeyethenoo + 2 (WON 12/1) 2/5 Black Jacari -1 Thread Stats No. of bets: 37 + 20 = 57 Pts staked: 40.75 + 20.25 = 61 Profit/loss: -3.46 + 15.27 = +11.81 pts ROI: +19 % Strike Rate (winners only): 7/57 (12 %) Strike Rate (placers/winners 25/57 = 44 %) Biggest winner: Jack My Boy 20/1 (1/5/10) I'm really happy with how they've run this week, much more like I have been hoping for and after an indifferent April (historically a poor month for me with fitness a big issue whilst the form settles down) things are getting nicely on track with a 19 % yield overall now. Gazboolou and Brierty have run well at big prices too and if one of them had gone in then the yield would have been doubled. The switch to near on level stakes has been a positive move and I will continue with that for now with a planned doubling of the stakes in June or July, as that is when my methods seem their most effective. Another angle I am going to look into in more detail is place only betting as the profit would have been really nice in April backing them all TBP to 1 pt level stakes. The place strike rate is around 50 % so I only need to find 1 in 2 TBP selections at odds greater than evens to make a profit, and typically 2/1 - 4/1 shots have been found daily so it is definately something I need to look at closely - noting when prices are out and with whom etc.

[DM99]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Amazing how fast things can turn around! Great stats! If you can keep up something like 20% yield for the flat season then that would be an outstanding achievement! :notworthy

[Stevet1859]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Great stuff Fin :clap The trusty pine cone indicates a thunderstorm brewing !!!!

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Thanks guys. I hope you are right on the thunderstorm Steve! 3.20 Beverley With Richard Fahey in rampant form HERRERA has to be seriously considered here. The High Chapparal mare has won around this track previously and has slipped to a good mark after defeat at the back end of last season. Nevertheless, she went well fresh first time out at Newcastle last term and could be primed for a big run at a price here. Advised bet: Herrera 9/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt each-way (3 places, 1/4 odds) 4.00 Kempton DESERT KISS is well drawn for his style at racing at Kempton today and having put in a fine effort at Newbury, latest, I think this improving sort can run well for Walter Swinburn, whose yard are in decent form. The horse has won on the all-weather before and looks destined for better things than most of these. Advised bet: Desert Kiss 9/2 Bet 365, 0.5 pt each-way (3 places, 1/4 odds)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Herrera was unp, desert kiss placed in 3rd. Two for today 2.45 chester - majestic concorde - form of curragh third behind silverhand boosted by drunken sailor over in meydan. Goes well fresh. 12s bet 365, 0.5 EW 3.15 chester - look busy - group 2 winner last season, drops into handicap here. Cd winner well drawn. 7s bet 365, 0.5 pt E

[RussP]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Was away this weekend so missed the racing but a couple of cracking winners Fin. Things just starting to click into place and fully expecting another very profitable season mate. You'll need to keep up the profit though to keep baby Fin in nappies and Dani stocked up with wine & choccies;)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

Was away this weekend so missed the racing but a couple of cracking winners Fin. Things just starting to click into place and fully expecting another very profitable season mate. You'll need to keep up the profit though to keep baby Fin in nappies and Dani stocked up with wine & choccies;)

Cheers Russ, I'm happy with how things are coming along now, the aim is to make a little bit of profit this month now the form is settling down, then double the stakes June time ish. :hope I was happy with how todays two ran - Majestic Concorde was tucked away by Pat Smullen on the inside and once he managed to get him out he ran on well for some place money. Look Busy was on edge during loading, was one of the last in, broke slowly and lost ground, so did quite well to take fourth - edged out close home in a photo for third. Had she broken on terms she would have placed. Onto tomorrow at Chester: 1.45 Chester I was impressed with LECEILE last season when she almost landed a hat-trick but was narrowly beaten by Nashmiah at Goodwood. She had Alsace Lorraine back in fourth that day and that rival came out of the race and ran superbly at Ascot subsequently. Although Leceile makes her seasonal reappearance I think her price more than accounts for that and with proven stamina over 1m 2f I think she can go well from the front tomorrow. Advised bet: Leceile 13/2 Stan James, 0.5 pt each-way (3 places, 1/5 odds) 2.15 Chester SOUTH EASTER won over this course and distance last season and William Haggas' colt has only raced twice since. He didnt quite see out one and a half miles when running in The King Edward Stakes at Ascot, but bounced back with a bang in the listed Magnolia Stakes at Kempton in March when back over shorter. The form of that race is starting to have a nice look to it as the second, fourth and sixth have all come out of the race and produced very respectable efforts subsequently - Honimiere especially who ran Strawberrydaiguiri really close in a Group 3 at Newmarket this weekend just gone. I think he is improving nicely and can come out on top here under Johnny Murtagh. Advised bet: South Easter 4/1 Bet 365, 1 pt win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 3.15 chester - sea lord - was useful last season beating flouncing and ran well over this sort of trip. Potentially better than 88 and on breeding should appreciate extra half furlong. 12s b365, 0.5 pt ew 5.05 chester - paquerettza - only 4 lb higher than march win at doncaster. Ran well over 10f at york last year, open to improvement. 11/1 vc bet 0.5 pt /eW

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 1.45 chester - Academy blues- progressed nicely for a yard that have a good record in this handicap. Will appreciate the softening ground. 10/1 ladbrokes, 0.5 pt ew. 5.05 chester - interdiamonds-narrowly btn lto and should be fitter for those two runs. Handles good to soft and as a daughter on montjeu, 12f shouldnt be an issue. 7/1 b 365, 0.5 pt ew.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Acadmey Blues traded at 1.03 in running but pipped close home by the rag! 3.25 Ascot (Victoria Cup) - Saturday This prestigious handicap is always an ultra competitive race and with a field totalling 29 runners things could potentially get very messy. However, the odds justify the risk in my opinion as there are some cracking prices on offer for several of the runners. Personally, I think STREET POWER is overpriced at 25/1 given he is a progressive individual and continued his improvement with a win at Kempton last month on his comeback run. That was his fourth win in his last six races and I just feel he has more to give at present. Proven over the course when winning here last July, Jeremy Gask's gelding is also a triple winner over seven furlongs so should take the step up in trip in his stride. 28/1 is available with Coral but with Bet 365 paying out each-way on five places, they get my business instead. Advised bet: 3.25 Ascot (Saturday) - Street Power 25/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt each-way (5 places, 1/4 odds)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 2.55 Nottingham LONDON GOLD - Henry Candy had churned out some quality sprinters over the years and this one looks no exception. Making his handicap debut here the trainer looks to have plenty of mileage in him off this generous looking mark; on his second start he chased home subsquent Group 3 winner Carnaby Street and he looks a handicap blot rated just 78 here. I've been waiting for this one to run for several months now and the price is better than I was expecting. Advised bet: London Gold 6/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt each-way (3 places, 1/4 odds) 4.35 Ascot ERMYN LODGE was consistent last year without winning, but she appears to have improved from three to four as she made a winning comeback on her first start of the season at Kempton last time out. The form of that race doesnt look anything to get too excited about but prior to that she ran in what has turned out to be a decent stayers handicap at Nottingham, and I think she is overpriced at double figure odds this afternoon with proven stamina over the trip whilst she remains open to improvement. Advised bet: Ermyn Lodge 12/1 VC Bet, 0.5 pt each-way (3 places, 1/4 odds) 5.10 Ascot I like the look of MEDICEAN MAN here for Jeremy Gask. The four year old ran a number of solid races last season as a three year old and showed he had trained on when landing a Wolverhampton handicap on his reappearance. He has failed to follow up in both of his last two runs but I think he is better than the official margins of defeat show; last time out he was running in a strangely run Newmarket handicap where there were plenty of traffic problems. I am willing to give him another chance today at this price. Advised bet: Medicean Man 16/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt each-way (3 places, 1/4 odds)

[philss_99]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

4.35 Ascot ERMYN LODGE was consistent last year without winning, but she appears to have improved from three to four as she made a winning comeback on her first start of the season at Kempton last time out. The form of that race doesnt look anything to get too excited about but prior to that she ran in what has turned out to be a decent stayers handicap at Nottingham, and I think she is overpriced at double figure odds this afternoon with proven stamina over the trip whilst she remains open to improvement. Advised bet: Ermyn Lodge 12/1 VC Bet, 0.5 pt each-way (3 places, 1/4 odds)

Cracking pick Fin :ok ... Excellent Reasoning.

[TheRat]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Cracking day Fin :clap

[Stevet1859]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Two great double figure priced winners today Fin :clap:clap

[Boulder5111]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Cracking stuff Fin, really well done :ok

[philss_99]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

5.10 Ascot I like the look of MEDICEAN MAN here for Jeremy Gask. The four year old ran a number of solid races last season as a three year old and showed he had trained on when landing a Wolverhampton handicap on his reappearance. He has failed to follow up in both of his last two runs but I think he is better than the official margins of defeat show; last time out he was running in a strangely run Newmarket handicap where there were plenty of traffic problems. I am willing to give him another chance today at this price. Advised bet: Medicean Man 16/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt each-way (3 places, 1/4 odds)

And Again Mate ... Well Done ...2 good priced winners :clap

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 :clap:clap Great Stuff Fin:ok

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 thanks guys, appreciate the comments :) Well chuffed with those results, I sensed a big win was in the offing and for the last few saturdays have done a yankee on the selections. last week I was a neck away from a 180/1 winner, this time managed a 208/1 double, so over the moon :nana

[jtw1]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

thanks guys, appreciate the comments :) Well chuffed with those results, I sensed a big win was in the offing and for the last few saturdays have done a yankee on the selections. last week I was a neck away from a 180/1 winner, this time managed a 208/1 double, so over the moon :nana

Well done Wayne you deserve a decent pay day :clap:clap:clap:clap:clap

[Kithanga]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Nice day mate, well done. I'm gutted about Medicean Man having backed it last weekend at 20's and had it in my final four yesterday. In the end I went for Secret Asset and he got nosed out of a place. Long may your good run continue!:ok

[RussP]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Great stuff Fin. I told you those winners would be flying in in no time:clap

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Well done Wayne. Not been on the site a great deal in the last week or so and would like to also offer my belated congrats on April's BBOTD. Keep it going Mate!

[mowgli77]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Well done Wayne, hopefully catch up with you at York through the week. :ok

[ELCAKER]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Wayne...maginifcent work. Was with you on Medician Man, he did it very well putting up the performance that connections had hoped for the previous week at Newmarket. Had a great day yesterday with some of the Gask stable owners, and gained a real insight into a couple of things. Primarily despite believing Med Man was more than capable of winning they didnt back him! They had concerns over his ability to act on the surface. Yet the horse was still backed from 16's in the morning to a low of 8's. It just illustrated that even with no "stable money" to speak of, horses can still get seriously backed. Before yesterday I would have seriously disregarded comments made by connections of well backed winning horses, stating "dont know where the money came from" etc etc. Yet yesterday proved that often really must be the case. After the way he won there were a couple of connections a little bit gutted they hadn't maybe got at least there stake money back from Newmarket!

[StuSimmy]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Fantastic tipping fintron :clap:clap

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Thanks for the comments lads :ok I just hope the run continues into next week for the Dante meeting at York :hope Results for the week: 3/5 Herrera -1 pt 3/5 Desert Kiss +0.07 pt (Placed 9/2 EW) 5/5 Majestic Concorde +1.25 (Placed 14/1 bog EW) 5/5 Look Busy -1 6/5 Leceile -1 6/5 South Easter -1 6/5 Sea Lord -1 6/5 Paquerettza -1 7/5 Academy Blues +1 (Placed 12/1 EW) 7/5 Interdiamonds -1 8/5 Street Power -1 8/5 London Gold -1 8/5 Ermine Lodge +7.5 (WON 12/1 EW) 8/5 Medicean Man +10 (WON 16/1 EW) Thread Stats No. of bets: 57 + 14 = 71 Pts staked: 61 + 14 = 75 Profit/loss: +11.81 + 10.82 = +22.63 ROI: +30 % Strike Rate (winners only): 9/71 (13 %) Strike Rate (placers/winners 30/71 = 42 %) Biggest winner: Jack My Boy 20/1 (1/5/10) Overall a pleasing update, it keeps things nicely on track and the figures are above the target 20 % yield. The planned doubling of stakes is on hold for the time being, but getting nearer! As for how the last lot actually ran. Academy Blues ran a blinder at Chester, Adrian Nicholls sent him to the front a fraction too early. He traded at 1.03 but was mugged close home. Interdiamonds ran a shocker and dropped right back through the field, something may have been physically wrong with her there. Street Power never got involved in the Victoria Cup and London Gold didnt look fully fit at Notts, racing up with the pace and fading tamely, however, Ermine Lodge ran a blinder for Tadgh O'Shea, who found plenty when she was taken on in the run in. Medicean Man won smartly for Jimmy Quinn, who took his time to find a gap before going for home.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 5.10 Brighton LODI - handicapped near to last two wins and a dual distance winner. Recent run should sharpen up his fitness, outside claims if principals bomb out. Advised bet: 20/1 lads, 0.75 pt EW

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 3.10 York (Wednesday) INXILE - in rude health at Doncaster when last seen and took a while to pull up afterwards. Has now dispelled any doubts over his ability to act over 6f and he goes on a variety of ground. Advised bet: Inxile 12/1 Bet 365, 0.75 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds)