Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 - Final Profit +127.57 pts

[League1_punter]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Think youve got these the wrong way round Fintron.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

Think youve got these the wrong way round Fintron.

Yeah, thanks for pointing out, Misaro ran at 3.30 (unplaced :\) and Peter Island runs in the 6.10. :hope

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 I was expecting more from todays two runners. Both Misaro and Peter's Island raced prominently or led as expected but both failed to see out their races - which isn't good enough considering they were well fancied in the market. Anyway, onto tomorrow at Epsom where a cracking card is on offer. 2.20 Epsom In the opener I like the look of ROCKET ROB who won over this course and distance with his former trainer Simon Callaghan before he headed off to the States. Now with Marco Botti, he is in very capable hands and the yard have already brought a win out of him on the all-weather at Kempton. The handicapper could only react with a modest rise so he remains competitively weighted on his return to turf and with the eyecatching jockey booking of Ryan Moore and a return to five furlongs, all looks set for a big run here with the yard in good form (3-12 in the last fortnight). Advised bet: 5/1 Bet 365, 1 pt each-way (3 places, 1/5 odds) 2.55 Epsom FINAL VICTORY has his fitness to prove but with his handler Andrew Balding in such sparkling form (5-16 in the last two weeks) I think it is worth chancing that this four-year-old gelding will be spot on for this assignment. I think he will get the race run to suit here and he looks well weighted bearing in mind he is only 4 lbs higher than when winning on his handicap debut at Kempton at the beginning of last season. Advised bet: 10/1 Paddypower, 0.5 pt each-way (3 places, 1/5 odds) 4.05 Epsom I think the favourite Alainmaar will run a good race here but he is priced in line with market expectation and at the prices it may be worth taking him on with TARTAN GUNNA. Mark Johnston's gelding ran credibly here last June and shaped as if in need of further when staying on well at Pontefract last week. He remains open to more improvement and this greater stamina test could be the key to unlocking further improvement. Advised bet: 9/1 Paddypower, 0.75 pt each-way (3 places, 1/4 odds) Hoping one of those can put an end to the barren spell :hope

[bowles10]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 hope so mate, i have picked the last 2 myself. :ok

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 A much better today but its the same sort of story, plenty are running into the frame but just not going on to win. Rocket Rob ran on well and was second in the sprint. Final Victory stayed on nicely for a clear second too, but Coin of the Realm bolted up. Tartan Gunna was unlucky and hampered twice at crucial stages. He was third and would have finished closer with a clear run. He got the trip fine. One for tomorrow............ 2.30 Beverley TAARESH did not get the race run to suit at Kempton 15-days ago and the handicapper has generously dropped him 1 lbs. He was rated as high as 82 when first assessed in 2008 and although it has taken him until now to get competitive after his mark has been eased, he probably has room for more improvement off his current perch of 71. Advised bet: 8/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt each-way (3 places, 1/5 odds)

[philss_99]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Well Done today Fintron . 2 x 2nd's 1 x 3rd. :ok

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

Well Done today Fintron . 2 x 2nd's 1 x 3rd. :ok

Thanks Phil. Taaresh was another that made the frame yesterday without winning :wall 16/1 the price this time. I've never known a month like this!! Just one bet for today 3.55 Sandown STREET ENTERTAINER - potentially well handicapped having been raised just 1 lb for maiden win at Lingfield last time out. In terms of breeding and based upon his Lingfield effort over an inadequate mile, I think he could make up to be a bit more useful than that. Big price with the yard bang in form - 4-11 in the last fortnight. Advised bet: 14/1 VC Bet, 0.75 pt EW.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 street entertainer faded and was unp. 1.55 Leics - HI SHINKO - won fto last season and fast ground and 6f ideal. Would have gone max bet on this if yard had been in better form as was expecting 10/1. 20/1 Paddypower, 1 pt EW 3.25 ripon - BOGSIDE THEATRE - looks like he could get run of the race, has been sstepping up his fitness and should be suited to track. 5/1 sj, 1 pt win 3.35 leics- SPIRIT OF SHARJAH - won well at lingfield and likely get race run to suit. Frankie eyecatching booking. 11/2 bet 365, 0.25 pt EW

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Hi Shinko is a horse that has done all of his winning from the front, and having broken really well at Leicester yesterday I was amazed to see the jockey be content to sit him in behind the leaders off the pace - incredible! Bogside Theatre couldn't see out the full race on fast ground and slipped back in the field, but Spirit of Sharjah hacked up at Leicester. He was swinging on the bridle until Frankie pushed the button, and he rates much better than the official margin suggested. He was smashed into 7/2 at SP from the 11/2 advised. 2.25 Navan It looks interesting that connections reapply headgear onto DOUZE POINTS having omitted it on his comeback run at Dundalk last time out. The four-year-old was holding his form well at the back end of last season and has slipped to a decent looking mark so with his favoured good ground, should run a race. Advised bet: 16/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt each-way (4 places, 1/4 odds) 4.25 Bath I respect Anglzarke and Tominoul Singer here but feel the value in the race lies with Clive Cox's filly, GILT EDGE GIRL. She progressed nicely in handicaps last season and looks one to go on and earn herself some black type this term. She ran well on her last outing at Wolverhampton to suggest she has trained on and the price of 10/1 looks several points too big in my opinion. Advised bet: 10/1 Stan James, 0.5 pt each-way (3 places, 1/5 odds) 4.30 Gowran Park FINAL FLASHBACK is a course and distance winner and with the yard in good nick, the Singspiel gelding should give a good account on the fast ground he relishes. Advised bet: 7/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt each-way (4 places, 1/4 odds) Summary of advised bets (scale 0.25 - 3 pts) 2.25 Navan - Douze Points 16/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW 4.25 Bath - Gilt Edge Girl 10/1 SJ, 0.5 pt EW 4.30 Gowran - Final Flashback 7/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW

[StuSimmy]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Nice winner fintron, cracking price you got as well :nana

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

Nice winner fintron' date=' cracking price you got as well :nana[/quote'] Thanks Stu, Morris gave it a good ride, sensing the strong pace and opting to deliver him late - he timed his run well and he had the race in the bag 1f out. Of the others, Douze Points ran well at Navan and was only a hd and a hd out of the places (a NR meant EW only paid on 1-2-3) although Final Flashback, despite strong support (7/1 into 9/2) ran no sort of race and never travelled at Gowran. These are the full results this week.. 18/4 Gan Amhras -1 pt 19/4 Damika -1.5 pt 20/4 Misaro -0.75 pt 20/4 Peter Island -0.75 pt 21/4 Rocket Rob 0 (Placed 5/1 EW) 21/4 Final Victory +0.5 pt (Placed 10/1 EW) 21/4 Tartan Gunna +0.94 pt (Placed 9/1 EW) 22/4 Taaresh +1.1 pt (Placed 16/1 bog EW) 23/4 Street Entertainer -1.5 pt 24/4 Hi Shinko -2 pt 24/4 Bogside Theatre -1 pt 24/4 Spirit of Sharjah +1.72 (WON 11/2 EW) 25/4 Douze Points -1 25/4 Gilt Edge Girl +6 (WON 10/1 EW) 25/4 Final Flashback -1 Thread Stats No. of bets: 22 + 15 = 37 Pts staked: 23.25 + 17.5 = 40.75 pts Profit/loss: -3.22 - 0.24 = -3.46 ROI: -8 % Strike Rate (winners only): 4/37 (11 %) Strike Rate (placers/winners 17/37 = 46 %) Biggest winner: Gilt Edge Girl 10/1 (SP 13/2) (25/4/10) This weeks profit/loss figure is 0.76 pts profit as I actually settled up a day earlier last week and my Sunday bet on Gan Amhras went down as a loser. Either way, there isn't much in it, and I still haven't hit my +20 % target in any of my updates. However, these is enough there to be optimistic about, had any of Rocket Rob (2nd), Tartan Gunna (3rd but hampered), Final Victory (2nd) or Taaresh (3rd) won, I would have made the target, and I think its just a case of waiting until some of the placers are converted into winners. The other thing I have looked at is staking, as most of the winners in the thread have been small size bets and when Ive upped stakes to try cash in on excellent value prices, they've lost. For example, If I'd backed all of those this week to 1 pt level stakes I'd have had 2.36 pts profit (+15 % ROI) so that is something I will consider next week. I would have been worse off betting to level stakes last season but my 2010 results show from around 100 bets that there isn't much in it.

[RussP]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Good winner Fin. Don't worry, those placed ones will come very good very soon. Just keep doing the same things mate:ok

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

Good winner Fin. Don't worry' date=' those placed ones will come very good very soon. Just keep doing the same things mate:ok[/quote'] Cheers, I hope so. :hope Some good races tomorrow and a few take the eye so hoping for some good prices in the morning.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 One for tomorrow... 4.10 Newcastle ROKER PARK - looks a fair price considering he was running in some hot handicaps last year, including the Silver Cup at Ayr, when disadvantaged by a huge bias favouring those drawn on the far side. Lookks capable of winning off 95 and a previous course winner. 8/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 6.40 Windsor C'MON YOU IRONS - is a course and distance winner and goes on any ground. His fitness has to be taken on trust but his price factors that in and I like his trainer who has kept Mafeking rising through the handicap ranks on the all-weather. C'Mon You Irons must defy a mark 5 lbs higher than his last win but he won so convincingly at Pontefract in July (by 6 lengths) that his trainer may find the necessary improvement with this one too now he's had a break. 25/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW.

[Kithanga]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 You beat me into 2nd again. Will you stop picking in the same race as me as it's getting me down ;) Well done, don't change anything it'll come good just the way it is. Like you say, one winner makes all the difference Cheers, K

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 2,000 Guineas - Ante-Post With the 2,000 Guineas only four days away now I think its time to lay the cards on the table and get a thread bet in the race, the first classic of the season and a race that catapulted John Oxx's magnificent Sea The Stars into the limelight last season. The hype horse St Nicholas Abbey has to be the first horse to get to work on. Aidan O'Brien's colt was a brilliant winner of the Racing Post Trophy when last seen at Doncaster. Despite having only a modest pace to chase he hacked up by over three lengths and rates much better than the winning margin suggested. Granted a true gallop on Saturday he has outstanding chances although the layers will point to the poor record of Racing Post Trophy runners in the race and the poor strike rate of favourites in the race - only one has won in the last decade. I snapped up some of the 7/2 about him a few months ago but now feel he is poor value. In a race full of unexposed, progressive, pattern horses, you don't want to be lumping on at the current price and for the purposes of this thread I will quite happily tip my hat and marvel in his excellence should he get the job done on Saturday. If the Saint does come unstuck, I feel it will be by a horse that is pacier over a mile. As a son of Montjeu, St Nick may come into his own over further later on in the season and so I've paid particular emphasis on breeding in an attempt to find my winner. Pimping aint easy Elusive Pimpernel has been popular having hacked up in the Craven Stakes. He has clearly progressed over the summer but I feel he is plenty short enough based on what he has shown to date. Forced to take the current 5/1 for this one or 6/4 for St Nick, I'd probably take the O'Brien horse as I think he can probably confirm Doncaster form with him, so he too is passed over on the grounds of value this afternoon. Fast and furious Next I've considered the horses that were running in the big sprints last season, the likes of Awzaan, Canford Cliffs and Extension. Awzaan brings an unbeaten record into the race for Mark Johnston but he steps up markedly in trip and I feel the 8/1 is short. He should be able to get the trip on breeding (by Alhaarth, 8f winner at 3) but is overlooked. Canford Cliffs will be ridden with more restraint in the race as connections look to avoid his hanging problems which cost him the Greenham earlier this month. The trainer reports him to be working well at home but 8/1 looks an poor price for a horse by Tagula, who never won beyond 7f. Xtension is interesting for Clive Cox. He won over 7f last term having been outpaced over sprint trips and he was a credible third in Dewhurst, a race that has produced a couple of recent, Graded winners. However, sire Xaar could manage no better than 4th in this race and I have a niggly suspicion about his stamina. I think he is a nice price but have passed over. Save the best till last I'm not keen on any horses that have had a prep run this season, and think the genuine contenders will have been trained at home, so that enables some of the outsiders to be cut out - Audacity of Hope (150/1), Fair Trade (50/1), Free Judgement (100/1), Red Jazz (66/1), Makfi (66/1), Lord Zenith (100/1), Greyfriarschorista (100/1), Dick Turpin (16/1) and Viscount Nelson (50/1). All but the last two were discarded without second thought as this isnt a race for massive upsets. The winner is generally findable and the only year in which big prices really seemed to cause havoc was the year Teofilo was a late withdrawl - 2007 with Cockney Rebel winning at 25/1 from 33/1 and 14/1 shots. Last time out form a good pointer Buzzword's form figures are 355 - hardly the most inspiring for a classic winner and with typical winners finishing in the first three on their latest start the Godolphin runner is axed along with stablemate Poet's Voice for the same reason. Out of their depth? Inler, Elspeth's Boy and Arry's Orse, who come here off the back of maiden victories, are all chopped on the grounds they are not proven at a good level. Typically winning or placed group form acts as a good pointer to a Guineas winner, and we now have a final shortlist of three as we attempt to topple St Nicholas Abbey with a value bet in the race. The final shortlist Hearts of Fire 25/1 Fencing Master 16/1 Al Zir 14/1 Had I written this post last week when placing my penultimate round of bets I may have made Al Zir my selection. 25/1 at the time I've actually backed him as a saver, but with the value seemingly gone and him currently being a best priced 14/1 (Coral) he isn't plausible. I wonder if the price has crashed because of the booking of Frankie? The horse was identified by Godolphin as a classic horse in a recent tour of the yard and was third in the Racing Post Trophy on his last start at two. He has clearly progressed between races and makes some appeal on breeding as his US sire was a multiple winner over 9f at two. Okay, the Guineas is run over a mile at HQ, but that breeding looks more suitable than the sprinters or the middle distance-bred animals. Either way, I think 14/1 is short for a horse that has quite a bit of work to do to reverse Doncaster form with St Nick and cannot go piling into him at the current odds. Next, onto Hearts of Fire. This horse is a strange one. He won the Brocklesby on his debut at Doncaster last season and it was a win that came as no surprise at all to the yard. However, just when it looked as if his improvement may have levelled out, a step up in trip, and the decision to clock up the airmiles with trips to Deauville, Baden Baden and the San Siro, all reaped dividends as the Firebreak colt won listed followed by Group 3 and then Group 1 races. The form of the last race was boosted when Vale of York won the Breeders Cup juvenile on his next start, but it is niggling at the back of my mind that he has been running against possibly inferior horses abroad and that I'd prefer my selection to have contested Group races in Ireland (the juvenile form there is high class IMO) if they have to have learned their trade overseas. For that reason he is reluctantly passed over at the price (although again, I've backed as a saver) and we now have a selection. FENCING MASTER - one of three O'Brien entries the Onatorio colt presumably inherited the lazy traits of his sire as he was pitched into a modest Dunalk maiden on his debut and wasn't strongly fancied on his second and latest start in the Dewhurst, perhaps suggesting he shows little at home? However, he actually ran a terrific race at HQ that day; having been pushed along early after a poor start and being forced to race wide on the outside he ran a monstrous race to finish half a length off stablemate Beethoven to take second. It was a performance that smacked of greenness but it also represented drastic improvement from his first to second run. To put some kind of numerical figure on that improvement, the Racing Post rated his maiden win at 86 and his performance in the Dewhurst earned a RPR of 117, over two stone higher. Although the Dewhurst form was met with caution in the aftermath of the race, despite it being run at a good time, the recent victories of Chabal (classic trial at Sandown) and Dick Turpin (Greenham) suggest it probably wasn't so bad afterall and that it may yet produce several more winners. If we look at Fencing Master's breeding we see the sire could manage no better than fourth in the race but he was a law unto himself at times and it is worth acknowledging the stamina infleunces on the dam's side - he is closely related to a useful French miler, a half-brother to smart miler Memory Maker and his grand-dam is infact a French 1,00 Guineas winner. There have to be slight concerns over his temperament but if he is at one with himself on the day and is capable of making another step forward then he could run well at a juicy price. The fact he is O'Brien second string is not offputting as the trainer won this race with Rock of Gibraltar in 2002 when favourite and stablemate Hawk Wing was turned over at 6/4 under Jamie Spencer. Advised bet: Fencing Master 16/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

You beat me into 2nd again. Will you stop picking in the same race as me as it's getting me down ;) Well done, don't change anything it'll come good just the way it is. Like you say, one winner makes all the difference Cheers, K

Cheers K, I was contemplating a bet on Tinshu tonight at 25/1 but she's been pulled out at Nott so its a day off for me today.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Two for Ascot tomorrow: 3.55 Ascot ELECTROLYSER was handed a poor draw in the Cesarewitch on his final run in 2009 so I am willing to overlook his lowly placing that day at Newmarket. Quite often last season he shaped as if two miles may be his optimum trip and it was over this course and distance that he won in September. I think he can make the leap in class required here as Askar Tau, although the class act in the race, is vulnerable when fresh. Advised bet: Electrolyser 10/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds) 4.30 Ascot Our Jonathon sets the standard here but at a bigger price REIGNIER looks the each-way value. He was second here at Royal Ascot in the Norfolk Stakes and has placed in close proximity to genuine Group 1/2 sprinters such as Monsieu Chevalier, Radiohead and Arcano. I rate him higher than the handicapper judging by his official rating and with the yard saddling up a first time out winner recentky at Nottingham I'm taking a punt on this one being ready to run into a place. Advised bet: Reignier 25/1 Paddypower, 0.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Final two bets for today: 4.05 Pontefract DAZZLING LIGHT is of interest here after catching the eye on her reappearance in a competitive Musselburgh handicap on her latest start. Yet again she failed to fully see out her race, so this drop back in trip today looks warranted (and overdue). The other factor that counts in her favour today is the dryer ground - she was running on good to soft last time but much prefers a quicker surface. Only 1 lb above her previous win, I think she can give a good account today if her jockey keeps her in touch. Advised bet: Dazzling Light 11/2 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW (2 places, 1/4 odds) 9.10 Kempton This is the very last race of the day and at the bottom of the weights GAZBOOLOU seems to have been forgotten about. The importance of the draw at Kempton is well known and starting from the rail draw the six year old already has a massive box ticked than makes his price seem outrageously generous for starters. However, another less known factor is the talent of 5 lb claimer Keiron Fox, who takes the ride and is in my opinion is worth that allowance. He has started this season very well and it won't be long until he is riding out his claim, so with him on board the horse is effectively running off a mark 3 lbs lower than when winning over course and distance previously. The horse showed he retains his ability on his last start at Wolverhampton and should be half of his current price by my estimates. His wins have come in a lower grade, but I'm gunning for a place from this one, with 1/4 odds paid if he can sneak second or third. Advised bet: Gazboolou 25/1 Blue Sq, 0.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 I was very pleased with how yesterday's four ran as a profit was made and we came ever so close to nailing a massive winner. Gazboolou (25/1 advised, backed into 14/1 SP) ran a monster of a race under Kieron Fox and took second in the finale at Kempton. My heart raised a couple of beats as he hit the front inside the final furlong but he was just pipped close home. A great performance from Fox nonetheless, despite the fact he put up 1 lb overweight. Of the rest, Reignier ran well at 25/1 at Ascot (nibbled into 18/1), racing up with the pace and having every chance 1f out before getting slightly outpaced to finish fourth (EW money was paid on 3 places). Dazzling Light was steamed into 11/4 from the 11/2 advised and was second at Pontefract. He would have gone closer had he been ridden in touch but jockey Bartley held him up right at the back of the field. Further each-way money was won from Electrolyser who also ran a brilliant race at Ascot (backed into 15/2 from 10/1 advised). Adam Kirby rode him exactly how I hoped and when pulled out for a run he stayed on nicely, but finished a tight third finding a couple too good. Overall, a pleasing day. Just the one bet today with most of the action low grade stuff that makes no appeal....... 4.00 Redcar Dandy Nicholls is on fire at the moment saddling up four winners from his last seven runners. He sends out two in this six furlong sprint up on Teeside but at the prices MAZE has to be the bet. The chestnut gelding was a really useful juvenile, winning the listed Chesham Stakes at Ascot in his first season of racing, and like so many before him, he then struggled the following season off a lofty handicap mark as he was hard to place. Those difficulties contined into last season, apart from a cracking run up at Newcastle when placed behind Baby Strange off a mark of 87. However, the handicapper has taken note and his rating has been slashed down to a mere 75 here - there must be races in him off a mark this low and there are two other clues to suggest he is ready to go in. He was making his first start for Nicholls last time out at Ripon and was well backed, into joint favouritism infact, suggesting his homework has been good. Secondly, although his chances here have been dismissed after that poor run, I commented on the heavy draw bias that day in the assessment of my previous selection, Mandurah. Like Mandurah, Maze was drawn on the slower strip of turf on the near side of the track. When you consider the first five home that day were drawn 13-11-15-12-14 then his lowly placing is perfectly excusable, as he showed up well for a way before fading. He may also strip fitter for that outing and is the selection. Advised bet: Maze 16/1 Stan James, 0.5 pt each-way (3 places, 1/5 odds)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Stan James are offering NRNB on the 1,000 Guineas so its time to nail colours to the mast for the second classic of the season as well as the 2k, already posted. 1,000 Guineas (Newmarket, 2nd May) Looking over the previous winners of this race informs us that there are frequent upsets in this contest, and as somebody that likes to beat the favourites with big priced alternatives, it is thus a race of interest. Ghanaati turned over the short priced Rainbow View last season and was yet another example of a filly coming into the race with last time out winning form. Infact, nine of the last ten winners have ticked this same box, and applying this filter to the field cuts down the number of possibles massively. Then things get a little harder to fathom as we have to delve into breeding, but the pedigrees of Guineas winners do throw out some clues that we can take note of. For example, Ghanaati (2009 winner) was sired by Giant's Causeway, an 8f winner at three and a horse infact placed in this same race, Natagora (2008) was by a sire with a stamina index of 8f, Finsceal Beo 8.2f and Speciosa 8.0f. Focussing on such horses in this years field means we can cut out Puff - whose stamina credentials are in doubt, and Hibaayeb and Pollinator who may come into their own over further at a later point into the season. What we are left with is a shortlist of three - Music Note (best priced 6/1), Rumoush (7/1) and Pipette (33/1). All make appeal on breeding, come into the race off the back of last time out winning form and have form chances. The prices determine the bet though, despite being inferior rated to the other pair, PIPETTE is available at quadruple the odds of the other two and is open to more improvement so has to be the bet. Recent comments from her trainer Andrew Balding suggest she will only run if the rain arrives, but the three day forecast for Newmarket is light rain today and tomorrow and heavy rain on Saturday so there is a strong chance the going will shift from its current good to firm desciption. Should it not, then the trainer will hopefully pull her from the race, and with Stan James offering non-runner no bet terms on this race, we would still have our stakes returned if she failed to participate. Advised bet: 1,000 Guineas (Newmarket, Sunday) - Pipette 33/1 Stan James, 0.5 pt each-way (3 places, 1/4 odds) Note: Stan James, along with Bet 365, are the only two bookies offering non-runner no-bet terms on this race at present.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Maze was backed into 10/1 SP from 16/1 yesterday but finished fourth (EW paid on 1-2-3). Three for today 4.45 Doncaster It is very rare that you can back unexposed handicappers at 12/1 when they won their last start and are stepped up in trip ahead of their handicap debut, but that is exactly what Victory Chandler are offering us for DANDINO today at Doncaster. I feel the price is due to the fact he hails from less glamorous connections than some of today's rivals, but the Dansili colt has shown improvement between each of his three runs to date and shapes as if this extra furlong today will be to his liking. Although the sire was more of a miler, the dam injects some fair middle distance form into his pedigree, and although Rigidity, Hidden Glory and Realisation all provide solid looking opposition, none have the benefit of a run this season. Should any two of them be shown up for lack of fitness then James Given's runner may be able to land a place at nice odds and at the price, Dandino is the selection with the yard 's string in good order. Advised bet: Dandino 12/1 VC Bet, 0.5 pt each-way (2 places, 1/4 odds) 4.55 Lingfield MAFEKING was in the money at the start of last month and although he has been beaten twice since, he has not had conditions to suit on either occassion. Punters keep letting him go off at big prices, I personally think it is because his trainer is viewed as unfashionable, but the horse is much better than a 14/1 shot, having proven himself over the track and trip and with him performing so consistently when he has enjoyed the run of the race - which I feel he will get today. Advised bet: Mafeking 14/1 Ladbrokes, 0.5 pt each-way (3 places, 1/5 odds) 5.05 Musselburgh DESERT DREAMER looks a stonking price north of the border up at Musselburgh. The unusual jockey booking of Tom Eaves catches the eye and the horse looks to have a much better chance than his odds indicate. He is at his best when chasing a fast pace over seven furlongs - the exact conditions he will get today. He was kept on the go for quite some time, the best part of last year, so it is no surprise his trainer has given him a little break to recharge his batteries. The gradient up to the finishing pole at Musselburgh is a little stiffer than that at Lingfield, Wolverhampton or Chester where his last few wins have come, but I think he should have the stamina to get home and the price justifies the risk on this one in my opinion. Advised bet: Desert Dreamer 28/1 Stan James, 0.5 pt each-way (3 places, 1/4 odds)

[Kithanga]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

4.45 Doncaster It is very rare that you can back unexposed handicappers at 12/1 when they won their last start and are stepped up in trip ahead of their handicap debut, but that is exactly what Victory Chandler are offering us for DANDINO today at Doncaster. I feel the price is due to the fact he hails from less glamorous connections than some of today's rivals, but the Dansili colt has shown improvement between each of his three runs to date and shapes as if this extra furlong today will be to his liking. Although the sire was more of a miler, the dam injects some fair middle distance form into his pedigree, and although Rigidity, Hidden Glory and Realisation all provide solid looking opposition, none have the benefit of a run this season. Should any two of them be shown up for lack of fitness then James Given's runner may be able to land a place at nice odds and at the price, Dandino is the selection with the yard 's string in good order. Advised bet: Dandino 12/1 VC Bet, 0.5 pt each-way (2 places, 1/4 odds)

Nice one mate :clap

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

Nice one mate :clap

Cheers K, can't beleive the price on that one, I was expecting around 8/1 so was well chuffed. Mafeking and Desert Dreamer both flopped in the other two races; both horses lost ground in the stalls but overall a profitable day. My bet for the 2k Guineas was posted previously but these are my other three picks at Newmarket tomorrow. 1.55 Newmarket A large field line up for a competitive renewal of the Sussex stakes but ITHINKBEST looks the one to be on. Sir Michael Stoute's gelding has improved since going handicapping and is perhaps a couple of pounds well in on his official rating judging by the manner of his latest win. He fits the ideal profile of the previous winners of this race - a lightly raced improving handicapper - and the yard infact saddled up the winner twelve months ago with Confront so know what is required to win the race. Advised bet: Ithinkbest 6/1 VC Bet, 0.5 pt each-way (4 places, 1/4 odds) 3.40 Newmarket The Palace House Stakes looks a scintillating race and my favourite horse in training, Borderlescott, is one of the twelve participants. However, I have cast sentiment aside here because at the prices I think TOTAL GALLERY is the bet of the race. Stan Moore's four-year-old made up into a really smart sprinter last term and in winning the Prix de L'Abbaye at Longchamp in October has proven he can mix it on the highest level. This Group three contest has to be considered an easier assignment and although Armour Propre is a smart prospect and ranks as a big danger I feel Total Gallery represents the value in the race at double the price. Advised bet: Total Gallery 6/1 Stan James, 0.5 pt each-way (3 places, 1/4 odds) 4.15 Newmarket Swilly Ferry will be a warm order here, and rightly so, having not enjoyed a clear passage last time out. However, JACK MY BOY looks a nice each-way alternative at 20/1 having shown recent progression under David Evans. This race is a step up in grade and the colt has to defy a further rise in the weights. However, six furlongs on fast ground is his ideal conditions and at the prices I'm hoping he can run into a place. Advised bet: Jack My Boy 20/1 Stan James, 0.5 pt each-way (4 places, 1/4 odds)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 last bets for today and tonight......... 4.05 Thirsk This race is the 2010 running of the Thirsk Cup and it usually pays to side with a runner that will race up with the pace and not come from too far back in the field. Although he was turned out yesterday, DUBAI DYNAMO makes some appeal as he ran a cracker in Musselburgh yesterday and prior to that had also ran well at this track off a similar sort of mark. Advised bet: Dubai Dynamo 11/1 Stan James, 0.5 pt each-way (4 places, 1/4 odds) 5.45 Thirsk LUCKY ART has won both of his races at this track and hinted that he was coming to hand with a credible effort at Ripon recently, faring best of those in his side of the split. He has dropped 3 lbs lower than his win here last season and from a good draw I'm hoping he can land a Dubai Dynamo double for Ruth Carr. Advised bet: Lucky Bet 9/1 Ladbrokes, 0.5 pt each-way (3 places, 1/5 odds) 7.50 Doncaster BRIERTY has been running very consistently on the all-weather for Declan Carroll and looks capable of making an impact of this lowly mark of 77. A winner off 79 at York last season he may well surpass that level this season bearing in mind his recent form at Wolverhampton, which strongly hinted further wins were in the offing. Advised bet: 20/1 VC Bet, 0.5 pt each-way (4 places, 1/4 odds)

[Kithanga]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

4.15 Newmarket Swilly Ferry will be a warm order here, and rightly so, having not enjoyed a clear passage last time out. However, JACK MY BOY looks a nice each-way alternative at 20/1 having shown recent progression under David Evans. This race is a step up in grade and the colt has to defy a further rise in the weights. However, six furlongs on fast ground is his ideal conditions and at the prices I'm hoping he can run into a place. Advised bet: Jack My Boy 20/1 Stan James, 0.5 pt each-way (4 places, 1/4 odds)

....and another - nice choice. I had the 5th that beat him last time so he's clearly on the up.:clap

[philss_99]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

4.15 Newmarket Swilly Ferry will be a warm order here, and rightly so, having not enjoyed a clear passage last time out. However, JACK MY BOY looks a nice each-way alternative at 20/1 having shown recent progression under David Evans. This race is a step up in grade and the colt has to defy a further rise in the weights. However, six furlongs on fast ground is his ideal conditions and at the prices I'm hoping he can run into a place. Advised bet: Jack My Boy 20/1 Stan James, 0.5 pt each-way (4 places, 1/4 odds)

Well Done Fin .... Cracking pick there mate :ok

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 thanks guys :ok Nearly won big today, if briety and kucky art (both second) had gone in with jack my boy, it would have been a massive treble, several thousand to one. So close.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 May got off to a flyer today when Jack My Boy went in at Newmarket at 20/1 - and he did it well too. We came so close to landing a treble that would have paid several thousand to one as Lucky Art (advised at 9/1) was caned into 7/2 and beaten by a neck at Thirsk and then Brierty ran a fine race at Doncaster and was gaining on the winner in the end when a good second in the 7.50. Due to non-runners there was a 35p deduction in the pound on that bet. Fencing Master disappointed in the 2,000 Guineas and didnt see out his race, Ithinkbest was going very nicely before the tank emptied inside the final furlong in the opener. Dubai Dynamo was ridden with too much restraint in the Thirsk Hunt Cup - the winner raced prominently as I expected but our jockey obviously hadn't done his homework in keeping his mount in midfield! Total Gallery travelled nicely in the Group 3 sprint but found himself a little short of room. He wouldn't have won, but anyway, a highly profitable day. With a 20/1 winner, 9/1 placer and 20/1 placer (-35p R4). I have already advised a 0.5 pt EW bet on Pipette in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket tomorrow (33/1) and also have two further bets: 2.05 Newmarket It was hard not to be impressed with DANGEROUS MIDGE who hacked up at Doncaster earlier in the month on his comeback run for the season. The handicapper has hit him with an 11 lb rise for that win but he won so easily that he is well worth a try in this slightly better event before he steps into listed and group races. He evidently handles fast ground and the step up in trip should continue his improvement. Advised bet: Dangerous Midge 7/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt each-way (4 places,1/4 odds) 3.55 Newmarket INDIAN SKIPPER came ever so close to winning at Leicester last time out and although he was mugged close home the run confirmed his well being and that he is running off a dangerously low mark on turf, considerably lower than that on the all-weather. He's been put up a couple of pounds from his last run and is 1 lb wrong at tomorrows weights but he looks as if he has a race in him and he should have conditions to suit. HAWKEYETHENOO caught the eye when beating our pick Green Park at Thirsk the other week and is improving rapidly. I want him onside too as a saver as I feel he too will run a race tomorrow. Advised bets: Indian Skipper 40/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW (4 places, 1/4 odds) Hawkeyethenoo 12/1 Stan James, 0.25 pt win