Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 - Final Profit +127.57 pts

[fintron]

Last year's thread ended up comfortably in profit and showed the following figures at the end of the season: 2009 Figures Total Pts staked: 6146.5 Final Profit/loss: +478.17 Final ROI: +7.77 % I'm gonna go again this season, although this years thread will not be a full diary and a complete list of every flat bet I placed, as was the case last year. Due to time constraints I won't be able to study as much as before, so I am ignoring all races below class 4 level. If the no. of races beyond that is still too much to get a handle on then I'll focus on the sprints - which were the money spinners last season. All selections will be proofed to Racing Index, if anyone wants to receive the tips via e-mail (not everyone can get access to PL through work firewalls) then please drop me a PM and I will add you to my mailing list. All tips go out before 11 am each morning and will also be posted on here as of today. All bets are on a 0.25 pt to 3 pt scale and are value picks. There may be long losing runs as was the case last year, but the aim is to stay ahead long-term by continually backing selections I feel are overpriced relative to what I consider to be their true odds. My target yield is double that of last season - I'm gunning for a 20 % return on investment this season, despite missing my 10 % target slightly last season. I think a bit of new found discipline will keep me on track. I plan to raised my stakes around June - July - which was my "thunderstorm" period last season. By how much will depend on how the selections perform over April-May. Stakes will probably drop off again for the final few months of the campaign, if the winners start to dry up as they did towards the back end of last season.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Bet 1: 4.35 Ffos Las Just the eight runners are currently declared for this class 4 sprint over 5 furlongs. Its a trappy race with two vying for joint favouritism - The Hermitage of Mark Johnston's and Silver Linnet, an impressive winner last time out, and I think there could be an upset. The one I feel is overpriced is the one racing from out the weights - EXCEED POWER. He is 3 lb out of the handicap but Andrea Atzeni claims a useful 3 lbs to effectively put him back in the handicap proper. Raised 6 lb from his Wolverhampton win two starts ago he is in tougher company here, but he rates better than his margin of defeat showed last time out (hit traffic trouble) and should get things run to suit today. 12/1 Betfred, 0.5 pt win/0.25 pt place (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[ELCAKER]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Best of luck Fin. I will be following with interest, and financially ;). I am sure you'll improve again from last year, despite the fact you have a new addition :D I found that I actually had more time for research after the arrival of our baby for the simple reason you go out less!! Here's to a profitable 2010.... :cash

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

Best of luck Fin. I will be following with interest, and financially ;). I am sure you'll improve again from last year, despite the fact you have a new addition :D I found that I actually had more time for research after the arrival of our baby for the simple reason you go out less!! Here's to a profitable 2010.... :cash

Thanks Caker. I found the same too actually, Ive been on paternity leave for the past two weeks and with the baby being so small I've been holding him in one arm and surfing with the other :lol But I go back to work in a few days and then may struggle to find as much time after !

[StuSimmy]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Good luck fintron bud, always nice reading your write-ups and I will be sure to have small bets on the majority of your selections :ok

[Kithanga]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Looking forward to it Fintron. You gave some great advice and big priced winners last season and I enjoyed reading your write ups. Hope it goes well for you and you manage to beat last years ROI this time round. I'll be trying my best to beat you though! :ok

[chris34]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Good to see ya back in biz and fingers crossed you can have such a good year as last year!! Good luck mate!!

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Thanks for that lads :ok K, a bit of friendly competition never did anyone any harm! Exceed Power ran well yesterday. Was backed into 15/2 and kept on nicely from off the pace but the winner Silver Linnet got first run. A return to six furlongs or a strongly run five looks the way to go with Exceed Power next time out, but he looks handicapped to win again (especially considering was 3 lb oh yesterday on official figures). Today is a busy day.... 2.50 Nottingham WI DUD is an enigmatic character and she has only won twice in her 31 race career. However, its rare for her to contest races down at this level, she is usually competing in listed and group races. With a good record fresh and placed form in a Haydock Group 2 on soft ground last season, she is my selection here, with Jamie Spencer (who has a good record for Kevin Ryan) booked to ride. Advised bet: Wi Dud, 5/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt each-way (3 places, 1/5 odds). 3.50 Nottingham DRILL SERGEANT was mixing it up in some valuable handicaps last season and came within a short head of winning at this level when pipped by Choc A Block at Newbury in October. Proven under slow conditions and with a history of going well fresh, he could burn these rivals off under Joe Fanning. Advised bet: Drill Sergeant 5/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt each-way (3 places, 1/5 odds) 3.10 Catterick This looks a very good handicap for the course and although many of these look fairly exposed, one of the exceptions is CRACKENTORP, now with Tim Easterby. The five-year-old gelding improved nicely under Ralph Beckett last season and is open to more improvement. He looks the sort to be contesting and winning heritage handicaps later in the season and although he is not proven on ground this testing, a chance is taken on his class at the price. Stablemate BOLLIN FELIX relishes cut in the ground and ended last season well in competitive handicaps. At a double figure price, he too looks worth an investment. Advised bets: Crackentorp 7/1 Stan James, 0.5 pt each-way (3 places, 1/5 odds) Bollin Felix 11/1 Stan James, 0.25 pt each-way (3 places, 1/5 odds) 8.00 Kempton IT'S A DATE is unproven on polytrack so for that reason the stake is only modest here. Nevertheless, he is a distance winner, looks on a good mark taking into account his turf wins last season and he could get the run of the race with a decent pitch in stall 8 to boot too. Advised bet: It's A Date 14/1 Bet 365, 0.25 pt each-way (3 places, 1/5 odds). Summary of today's bets (scale 0.25 - 3 pt) 2.50 Nott- Wi Dud, 5/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW 3.10 Catt - Crackentorp, 7/1 SJ, 0.5 pt EW 3.10 Catt - Bollin Felix, 11/1 SJ, 0.25 pt EW 3.50 Nott - Drill Sergeant, 5/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt EW 8.00 Kemp - It's A Date, 14/1 Bet 365, 0.25 pt EW

[alexmac]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 All the best with this mate.

[Kithanga]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

2.50 Nottingham WI DUD is an enigmatic character and she has only won twice in her 31 race career. However, its rare for her to contest races down at this level, she is usually competing in listed and group races. With a good record fresh and placed form in a Haydock Group 2 on soft ground last season, she is my selection here, with Jamie Spencer (who has a good record for Kevin Ryan) booked to ride. Advised bet: Wi Dud, 5/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt each-way (3 places, 1/5 odds).

Well picked mate, round one to you I think :clap

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 alex, K, cheers. Profit/loss broke even yesterday. Wi Dud won eased down but crackentorp and bollin felix broke badly and never travelled. Drill Sergeant (5/1 out to 10/1) and Its A Date (14/1 out to 29/1) were big drifters on betfair. Just one for today.... 8.20 Wolverhampton BAHAMIAN LAD - four time cd winner that is well drawn in stall 1 here and dropped 1 lb for his latest fifth. He is quite consistent and the price seems fair. 8/1 bet 3H5, 1 pt win/0.5 pt place (3 places, 1/4 odds)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 bahamian lad hit 7/2 in running as he looked a place banker inside 2f last night, but his tank emptied inside the final furlong which was disappointing. Two bets today; 3.25 Muss - INGLEBY STAR - kept fit on aw and in form winning at Wolv last month. Running off same mark as CD win previously, handles cut. 16/1 SJ, 0.75 pt EW. 6.45 Wolv - FOL HOLLOW - worth a try on poly because although his sand form is poor, all his best turf form has come on a fast surface. Well handicapped relative to turf mark if taking to surface and low draw a help. 6/1 bet 365, 0.5 pt EW

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Just spotted your thread as not been around a lot due to visitors over Easter. Good Luck with this and I hope a very profitable season lies ahead for you.:ok

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

Just spotted your thread as not been around a lot due to visitors over Easter. Good Luck with this and I hope a very profitable season lies ahead for you.:ok

Cheers Dave, a similar start as you have made to your thread would be very nice ;) I was happy with how they ran today. Ingleby Star (16/1) was pummelled into 6/1 and was second at Muss. Fol Hollow drifted out to 7/1 with bog and was third for place profit too. Two for tomorrow and a results update to be done on Sunday... 2.10 Lingfield SEEK THE FAIR LAND has been running in some tough all-weather handicaps recently and aquitted himself well. Far from disgraced in a £31k event last time out when third to the useful Brave Echo, he should find the opposition in this £7k race a bit more on his level. He is suited to seven furlongs on polytack and looks a fair price. Advised bet: 7/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt win/0.25 pt place (3 places, 1/4 odds) 2.45 Lingfield ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE ran better than his finishing position indicated at Kempton last time out and in this larger field and with useful 7 lb claiming jockey John Fahy booked, he could return to winning ways here off top-weight. A Group 3 winner over this trip on turf last season he has placed form over 12f on the all-weather too (in a Group 3 when a neck second to Hattan), and at a double figure price, he looks worth chancing. Advised bet: 12/1 Bet 365, 0.75 pt win/0.25 pt place (3 places, 1/4 odds)

[Kithanga]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Both placed, that's two nil to you as I'm still waiting for mine to finish! Well done mate, good picking. I thought you were a bit unlucky with the second one as he looked to be going well turning in.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

Both placed, that's two nil to you as I'm still waiting for mine to finish! Well done mate, good picking. I thought you were a bit unlucky with the second one as he looked to be going well turning in.

thanks K. I thought Illustrious Blue was gonna do better too, he cruised into contention on the outside turning in like you say, but couldn't find the pace of the leading pair in the straight I suppose. Both placed for pretty much money back (a slight loss from Seek The Fair land placing due to the staking) on the day, but I am happy they are knocking on the door at least, and hoping for some good quality sprints next week.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Results Update Exceed Power (Placed 12/1) +0.1 Wi Dud (Won 9/2) +3 Drill Sergeant -1 Crackentorp/Bollin Felix -1.5 Its A Date -0.5 Bahamian Lad -1.5 Ingleby Star (Placed 16/1) +2.25 Fol Hollow (Placed 7/1 bog) +0.38 Seek The Fair Land (Placed 7/1) -0.07 Illustrious Blue (Placed 12/1) 0 Thread Stats No. of bets: 10 Pts staked: 10.5 pts Profit/loss: +1.16 pts ROI: +11 % Strike Rate (winners only): 1/10 (10 %) Strike Rate (placers/winners 6/10 = 60 %) Biggest winner: Wi Dud 5/1 Overall not a bad update with at least some sort of profit to show. With five of them hitting the frame without winning, if any one of those had gone in then the return of investment would have hit the 20 % target, so I am not too fussed it is below that at this early stage. The reason my best bet of the day Kargali (won 18/1) was not included is that all the thread bets are to be submitted by 11 am, the deadline I set myself for getting the e-mails out to my members list, so because Kargali was only a last minute selection (something that Racing Index also dont like, they like all selections proofed in the morning), I didn't include it in here, its a shame, but hopefully there will be plenty more of them.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 three for today, 3.20 Windsor - CHARLOTTE POINT - slipped back down to last winning mark, distance winner, had pipeopener in kemp listed race LTO. 20/1 Ladbrokes, 0.5 pt EW. 3.50 Windsor - LUSCIVIOUS - won well at Muss, form franked by second, turned out under a penalty. 10/3 vc bet, 1 pt win 4.20 Windsor - LOVE YO* LOUIS - won well at folke and eased down at finish. Rise in weights warranted, still well handicapped on old form perhaps. 9/2 bet 365, 0.5 pt EW.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Luscivious was the main bet yesterday but with the ground drying out quickly he was pulled from the race by McCabe. Charlotte Point was given a poor ride by Eddie Ahern, who strangely decided to hold her up which proceeded to get her into all sorts of trouble when she went looking for a run. Any jockey worth their salt should stick to prominent racing at Windsor when they are riding a horse that produces her best form riding prominently. Definately one of my jinx jocks is Ahern. Love You Louis was placed for profit and better than the margin of defeat showed, he was another blocked off on more than one occasion, and could have finished closer with a break. Just one for today. 4.00 Yarmouth MONSIEUR JOE - ended last season finishing mid-field in a Group 3 but back down to a more realistic level. Trainer Swinburn sent Crown Choice close the other day after a big lay off and several others running well for him. Ryan Moore, who is in rampant form with nine winners in the last fortnight, is booked to ride, another positive. 7/1 Bet 365, 0.25 pt EW.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Actually, another for today (think its great value). 3.20 Pontefract Course and distance form is often very informative at Pontefract, where a stiff finish often puts pay to the chances of those coming from too far off the pace or with stamina issues. As a result, FASTNET STORM, who is likely to get the run of the race from stall five, as well as having winning form over further, looks overpriced. He won over course and distance last season and still looks open to more improvement and at a big price he looks worth backing today. 11/1 VC Bet, 0.75 pt win/0.25 pt place (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[Kithanga]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010

4.00 Yarmouth MONSIEUR JOE - ended last season finishing mid-field in a Group 3 but back down to a more realistic level. Trainer Swinburn sent Crown Choice close the other day after a big lay off and several others running well for him. Ryan Moore, who is in rampant form with nine winners in the last fortnight, is booked to ride, another positive. 7/1 Bet 365, 0.25 pt EW.

Great analysis mate. You're on fire!

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Cheers K. He only got up to win by a nose but I think its 1-3 to the opposition with regards to photo finishes this season now so I was owed one!!! Fastnet Storm faded yesterday and probably needed the run. Monsieur Joe was backed off the boards at Yarmouth and won at 3/1 (7/1 advised). Two races are of interest today; 3.10 Beverley It is hard to get an edge at Beverley these days given that the draw bias at the Yorkshire track is one of the most widely known biases in racing. Bookmakers know all too well the advantage of being drawn high and factor it into their prices accordingly, but the form that FOL HOLLOW showed for the service when running so well for so long at Wolverhampton, suggests he is still worth keeping onside despite the prohibitive odds this afternoon. He will appreciate the drop back in trip and he is infact a dual course and distance winner. He looks on a competitive mark and looks a worthy favourite. The other horse that looks worth a bet in this contest is one of his stablemates - TAJNEED. The seven-year-old is probably more effective over six furlongs than over the minimum trip he tackles here, but he looks so well-weighted that I feel he has to be worth a small investment at a massive price. This is a horse that won the St Wilfrid at Ripon off a mark of 92 and was a superb second in the Ayr Gold Cup off 4 lb higher next time out. He has now slipped way below that level now and given he has rarely run at 5f I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for a yard renowned for producing sprint winners. Advised bets: Fol Hollow 3/1 Bet 365, 1 pt win Tajneed 16/1 Bet 365, 0.25 pt each-way (4 places, 1/4 odds) 5.55 Newmarket This sprint looks fast and furious as twenty unexposed three-year-olds do battle at racing's headquarters. Firstly, it is quite possible FRATELLINO will bowl out of the gates, just as he did at Lingfield last month, and blaze a trail under James Doyle. He has done all of his winning over five furlongs but on the basis of his last run he may find six furlongs within his compass. Race fit after his last outing, he looks overpriced at massive odds. However, the winner of this race tends to be a little less exposed and tends to have been sent directly into the race off the back of a summer break, so the progressive KAPTAIN KIRKUP looks to hold a strong chance. Michael Dods' colt won on his handicap debut at Haydock last season on his third start to land a hat-trick and he looked better than the winning margin suggested having met with trouble in running. He confirmed that form to be no fluke when finishing runner up in the listed 2-yo trophy at Redcar (over this trip) and given he has gone well fresh previously and that this is his trip, he has to be backed today at a juicy price. Advised bets: Fratellino 25/1 Bet 365, 0.25 pt each-way (4 places, 1/4 odds) Kaptain Kirkup 16/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt each-way (4 places, 1/4 odds)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 fol hollow faded up the hill yesterday but tajneed ran a cracker ew in second (shaped as if wants further). Fratellino ran a huge race at hq, a nk and nk out of the frame at 25/1, kaptain kirkup was poor though. Two today: 2.35 Ripon - MANDURAH - hacked up at Ascot off this mark last season, if ground rides ok on low rail then every chance. 20/1 Hills, 0.75 pt EW. 3.00 newmarket - ABLE MASTER - good second in lusted race at redcar, progressed nicely last season, interesting booking of queally for gask. 12/1 hills, 0.5 pt win /0.25 pt place.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 In my e-mail this morning I said Ripon can be a tricky track to fathom as the draw can often be unpredictable, and that was evident today with the first four, out of a field of sixteen, drawn 13,11,15 and 12. Our selection, Mandurah, was marooned over on the other rail having started from stall five, and it was somewhat annoying seeing him (and the rest of his group on that side) treading water on what turned out to be the slower strip of ground. Had the going been more conclusive the scenario may have been avoided, but when the going is neutral as it was today, you often don't know the way things will go and simply take a chance when handing over your money. The second selection of the day was Able Master, there but were no hard-luck stories there I'm afraid. The rationale behind the bet was that he was a big price and could capitalise if the quirky favourite flopped, but Equiano actually ran a very good race and won, with Able Master caught off his feet a little half-way and outpaced. I wouldn't normally advise a bet for tomorrow this early, but through either accident or design, Bet 365 are offering each-way betting at a quarter of the odds tomorrow in the 2.40 at Newbury, despite the fact there are only nine runners in the race (usually you need more than 12 runners for 1/4 odds, otherwise they pay 1/5 odds). Whilst they offer EW bets at these terms I think its worth having a bet in the race, as the rest of the firms are paying out at 1/5. 2.40 Newbury Hughie Morrison has saddled up three winners from the eleven runners he has sent out from his East Ilsley base in the last fortnight, and considering such a promising start to the season, SOHRAAB looks one to be on tomorrow in this five furlong dash. The six-year-old is best caught fresh and was second in this race last season on his reappearance, winning at York first time out the year before. He ran some superb races last season, winning a Chester handicap off 96 and placing in a listed event at the same track. He was even sent over to France where he ran in the Prix de l'Abbaye when last seen. It was little surprise to see him put in his place in that Group 1 event, but back in handicaps here he looks on a competitive mark, only 2 lbs higher than when scoring at the Roodee in that aforementioned handicap last term. Advised bet: Sohraab 6/1 Bet 365, 1 pt win/0.5 pt place (3 places, 1/4 odds) Note: all other firms paying out 1/5 odds each-way on this race.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 in additon to sohraab, two at thirsk. 4.15 Thirsk - outsider of the field GREEN PARK is a cd winner, had a mini break to get him prepped and multiple winner over 5f. Well hcapped on best form. 25/1 b365, 0.25 pt EW. 4.45 Thirsk - INCOMPARABLE - good win at donc last term, sliding down weights again, appreciated headgear and drop back in trip. 11/2 vc bet, 0.5 pt EW

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Sohraab was well backed this morning after Hugh Taylor got involved, but he lacked his finishing kick that he has shown in the past. He was disappointingly unplaced, but the two at Thirsk placed, Green Park was most pleasing, finishing second at 33/1 (bog) behind the hot favourite. There are plenty of prices already out for the Spring Cup tomorrow so I'm posting my bet up for this now. 2.35 Newbury A field of 24 contest this valuable heritage handicap but we can probably cross a line through plenty of the runners on the basis of the draw and them not fitting the typical progressive profile that is usually needed to win these big handicaps. There are plenty in with chances but the one that looks a good price is Jane Chapple-Hyam's BIG BAY. Unraced at two, the chestnut colt progressed nicely last season having made his debut in a warm Newmarket maiden. He was last seen winning a handicap at Kempton and despite a rise in the weights he looks open to plenty more improvement off his present mark. From a high draw he could get involved if Shane Kelly keeps him towards the front, where he may avoid trouble at the back of the field. Advised bet: Big Bay 20/1 Bet 365, 0.75 pt win/0.25 pt place (4 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Big Bay was practically pulled up today at Newbury suggesting a health problem with him. He also raced much more restrained than usual, another bad sign of his well being. Its been a disappointing week this time. When the profitable bets have been found, they have been to minimal stakes, and when I have upped stakes, they've lost. The final outcome is a loss on the week, but its still early days and Im remaining unfazed. 12/4 Charlotte Point -1 pt 12/4 Love You Louis +0.15 pt (Placed 13/2 bog EW) 13/4 Monsieur Joe +2.1 (WON 7/1 EW) 13/4 Fastnet Storm -1 pt 14/4 Fol Hollow/Tajneed -1/+0.75 pt (Tajneed Placed 16/1 EW) 14/4 Kaptain Kirkup/Fratellino -1.5 pt 15/4 Mandurah -1.5 pt 15/4 Able Master -0.75 pt 16/4 Sohraab -1.5 pt 16/4 Green Park +1.82 (Placed 33/1 bog EW) 16/4 Incomparable +0.05 (Placed 11/2 EW) 17/4 Big Bay -1 pt Thread Stats No. of bets: 10 + 12 = 22 Pts staked: 10.5 + 12.75 = 23.25 pts Profit/loss: +1.16 - 4.38 = -3.22 pts ROI: -14 % Strike Rate (winners only): 2/22 (9 %) Strike Rate (placers/winners 11/22 = 50 %) Biggest winner: Wi Dud 5/1 I'm happy with the place strike rate - its only a matter of time until they start being converted into wins, although I dont expect the win rate to raise much, given more picks are double figures prices than not.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 3.35 Leopardstown GAN AMHRAS was my selection in last years 2,000 Guineas and he didn't disappoint as he was third to the legendary Sea The Stars in the UK classic, confirming he acts well over a mile and also that he goes well fresh. During the remainder of last season it all well a bit downhill for him but his dip in form coincided with being stepped up in trip. Back down to a mile here, and on better ground on which he has run well in the past, he could spring a shock for Jim Bolger in this listed event. Advised bet: Gan Amhras 14/1 Bet 365, 0.75 pt win/0.25 pt place (2 places, 1/4 odds)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Gan Amhras was steamed into 11/2 from 12s (reformed market) yesterday but was outpaced. However, if we keep beating the prices by such margins, the long term picture will be bright. 3.10 Pontefract DAMIKA - dropped 1 lb despite running a mammoth race from poor draw at Chester last season. Goes well fresh and now 4 lb lower than last win. Placed at course prev. 16/1 ladbrokes, 0.75 pt EW

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 damika was taken down a blind alley at pontefract yesterday and would have finished closer with a good ride. Culhane showed him how to do it, riding aggresively through a gap to get int'debut into third. Two for today: 3.30 fokestone - peter island 5/2 bet 365 0.75 pt - won well lto, cd winner, handles fast fround 6.10 brighton - misaro 11/4 bet 365, 0.75 pt win - won at kemp lto, runs under pen here but won off this high prev on turf. Gets on well with probert