Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Frankie not on Uphold now so my reasoning looks a bit stupid, hes off to Epsom :@ Not sure whos on board yet, RP taking ages to update.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 15:10 Leicester James Fanshawe holds a fantastic strike rate at Leicester and is one of the leading trainers at the track and he saddles up just the one horse at todays meeting which I find interesting. The lightly raced Bondage runs in his 4th handicap race today and attempts this trip and this course and distance for the 2nd time. He was 4/7 on his penultimate start, was hampered around halfway out which seemed to have knocked him off a bit but he did stay on well towards the end of the race without troubling the leaders. Is only 1lb higher for today's run and is yet to experience ground softer than good so it will be interesting to see how he handles that today and it may even spark some extra improvement from the horse. 1pt win Bondage @ 4/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 15:30 Ripon Be Invincible could be the one to beat in this race, especially since Barry Hills holds a nice strike rate at the track (26%). This is his only horse at the meeting and he has a handy draw in stall 11 to boost. Still lightly raced and has only attempted this trip once which was LTO at York where he finished a very creditable 3/18. Howevr at the current prices I am willing to look elsewhere and therefore my selection lies with Fastnet Storm who had a cracking 2009, winning three times over this sort of trip from 9 runs in total. His first win last season came over this course and distance off a mark of 78 before going on to win off marks of 84 and 86 at Pontefract and Nottingham. Hasn't shown too much so far this season but dropped back down to a mark of 87 which is only 1lb higher than his win at Nottingham. Did hint at returning to form LTO off this mark when only beaten by a length at Beverley so should run his race once again here today. Has a nice high draw in stall 10 which is handy round here. Callan on board who holds a 18% strike rate here and a LSP of £85. 0.5pt win Fastnet Storm @ 15/2 (WillHill - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 1st and 2nd today after a bad day yesterday, still considering one more bet today but the longer I leave it, the less likely I will have a bet on the race. Have yet to have a look at the night meetings but will probably just leave them alone.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 19:25 Folkstone Triple Dream gets my vote in this class 4 handicap. There seems to be a lot in this horses favour tonight, the ground won't pose a problem, hes running over his ideal trip and he is only 1lb higher than his last winning mark which came back in July at Nottingham. Has run off a mark 3lbs higher in all three races since but drops back down 2lbs for todays race. Has a 3lb swing in the weights with Effistorm who he was beaten by LTO, there was 2 and a quarter lengths between them but with a less experienced jockey on board Effistorm tonight, I feel the form can be reversed. Triple Dream also has the better draw in this race by landing the plum draw in stall 1. 0.5pt win Triple Dream @ 6/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 15:30 Brighton Buxton looks to be the best chance of a winner for leading course jockey Seb Sanders today where he takes just 3 rides. He has a 18% strike rate at the track (22% in 2010) with an LSP of £30.24. Onto the horse - he has won twice over course and distance previously, Brighton can prove to be difficult for some horses and many horses who have won here previously tend to win here again so I fancy his chances for a third success at the track here today. He won here in 2008 off todays mark (72) so he is still well enough handicapped on his old form. Seb won on board for his last course and distance win which was in May this year off a mark of 65. Has not been up to much since that race but has hinted at a revival in form in his last two runs where he placed at Sandown and Wolverhampton off a mark of 70 and todays mark of 72. Has a 12lb swing in the weights with Lady Florence from the Sandown run for just a three quarters of a length defeat but she is also a course specialist at this track so I wouldn't be surprised to see those two battle out the finish. 1pt win Buxton @ 11/4 (Betfred - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 17:00 Brighton I think it could be worth chancing Justcallmehandsome in what looks like a very weak apprentice handicap. From 16 efforts on turf he has yet to win and has only placed four times on total but he is rated 15lbs higher on the AW so if hecan transfer a bit of that form to turf today, he should be in with a good chance. Has placed at Brighton previously and the trip today should be perfect for him. 0.5pts E/W Justcallmehandsome @ 14/1 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 16:25 Salisbury Siding with the top weight Folly Bridge in this race. Roger Charlton's three year old has only had 8 runs to date so is still lightly raced and although a career best will be needed to land this race, I feel she is still on the upgrade and can progress once again in this race. She has won three races from the eight and has finished 3rd a further three times (two of those 3rd places at this track) so there is a bit of consistency about her. Her only two unplaced efforts to date have been in big fields (17 and 19 runners) so it may well be that she is suited to smaller sized fields. Only 11 runners lining up today and the possibility of non-runners so Im not worried by the field size today. She started the season finishing 10/19 at Newmarket over 6 furlongs (6 out of 14 in her group) and was under 3 lengths off the eventual winner Mister Hughie who has since won at listed level. Kaptain Kirkup who was just behind her that day has also won since in a decent handicap off a mark of 94, another four horses have won since that race with a couple of others placing so the form of that race is quite strong. Folly Bridge went on to win next time out at Nottingham over 6 furlongs (2nd and 3rd have won since) before finishing 12/17 back at Newmarket (4/7 in group). She then stepped up in trip to 7 furlongs at Newmarket once again where she ran on well to land the race by a neck in the final 50 yards. Raised 5lbs for that win and entered an all age handicap for the first time at Newmarket over 7 furlongs LTO. Finished 3/9 in behind Miss Zooter (who she had beaten in her previous race at Newmarket, a 5lb swing in the weights was enough to reverse that form) and Waveband (who has since went on to win). Gets in off the same mark today and I feel she is definately capable of winning off this mark, especially at a track the trainer does well at (17% strike rate, 25% in 2010) and the trainer/jockey combo also does well at the track (22% strike rate, 33% in 2010). Jockey Steve Drowne has won on board twice and finished 3rd three times from 5 rides so its clear he knows her well and can definately get the best out of her. Slight draw bias towards high draws over 7 furlongs at this track so she is drawn very well in stall 9 which is another positive. 1pt E/W Folly Bridge @ 7/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 13:30 Redcar Bollin Judith absolutely loves it round here with two wins and a 2nd placed finish from three runs over course and distance. Her only other appearance at the track was on her debut over a trip that didn't suit where she finished 7th. She won here twice in 2009 off marks of 55 and 59, runs off 63 today and after running a decent enough race over an inadequate trip off a mark of 64 LTO, I feel she can definately achieve a career best here today at a track she clearly loves. Her last win here was by 5 lengths, she demolished a field of 10 that day and was eased down towards the finish. David Allan has won on her here previously and was also on board when she placed at Ayr off a mark of 71. Conditions are also in her favour since both her wins have come in Good To Firm ground. 1pt win Bollin Judith @ 3/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Bollin Judith won very confortably @ 11/4 and Folly Bridge was 3rd @ 15/2 so a good and profitable day for me which I am happy with. Probably keep an eye on Bollin Judith round Redcar again as she clearly loves it there and Folly Bridge may also be worth keeping an eye on next time out.

[Monterosso]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Good stuff mate. :clap

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Cheers bud :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 15:10 Musselburgh Cracking sprint handicap this and many of these are in with chances. I am going to persist with Titus Andronicus once again who has a decent track record with one win and two second places from three runs at the track. His win came in April last year for Kevin Ryan where he won a three year old handicap by 2 lengths off a mark of 74. Has not been in the greatest form in 2010 for new yard Richard Fahey, who has been having a great 2010 it must be noted. I felt he was possibly a bit unlucky over course and distance on his penultimate start, didn't really get the gaps when they were needed and when he finally got in the clear he did stay on but by then it was too late and Rasaman was already a couple of lengths clear. I do fancy Titus Andronicus to reverse the form off 6lb better terms and I feel he will hold the form against several of the others who line up again today from that race. Is due to go up the handicap by 2lbs so he has a chance to win off this mark of 80 today before doing so. Flopped at Epsom LTO but we all know that can be an awkward track for some horses and he clearly did not take to it. Has placed off higher marks previously and I definately feel he is capable of winning off this sort of mark. I rate the consistent Sir Geoffrey as the main danger. 0.5pt E/W Titus Andronicus @ 7/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 14:30 Haydock 17 runners currently line up for this class 2 handicap over the minimum trip. There seems to be a slight bias towards the horses drawn high so I have drawn my attention to those drawn high and my selection will be bolting out of stall 15. Noel Wilson saddles up Pavershooz in this race in what is his only runner of the day. Its clear the horse is a bit of a sprint specialist having won three times and finished 2nd once from 6 runs over the minimum trip. He has also won once from 4 runs over an extended 5 furlongs and finally one win over 6 furlongs. His most recent wins have all been over 5 furlongs, he won three times over the distance in 2009 and is now only 1lb higher than his career best effort at Ayr back in July 2009. Started the season off a handicap mark of 92 and after three fairly poor efforts, he was dropped down to a mark of 87 (1lb lower than his win at Ayr) where he finished a very creditable 2nd to Favourite Girl who he faces again today off 2lb better terms for a three quarter length defeat which I feel he can reverse today. Two runs since have not been too inspiring but to be fair he didn't have the best of the draw in either race, was 8/17 at Ripon over 6 furlongs on his penultimate start but was 2nd of 7 in group before finishing 8/11 at Sandown LTO where he weakened inside the final furlong. Versatile when it comes to the going as he has won on GF, GD and GS ground conditions but its fair to say he acts better on good ground or ground on the soft side of good so todays conditions look sure to suit him perfectly. Neil Callan takes the ride for the first time which I find interesting as he doesn't ride for the trainer very often with only 7 previous runs for Noel and although that has resulted in 0 winners I don't believe that will hinder this horses chances at all as he is a very capable jockey. 0.5pts E/W Pavershooz @ 12/1 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 14:55 Thirsk Mark Johnston's Green Lightening is lightly raced and the least exposed horse in the race with only 7 runs to date. I was on him LTO ay York where he made the step up to 14 furlongs for the first time, it seemed as if that trip stretched him a bit as he weakened inside the final couple of furlongs. The step back down to 12 furlongs today is sure to be back in his favour. Is still 5lbs higher than his win over the distance at Newmarket on his penultimate start but I believe he is still improving and he drops down from a class 2 race into a class 4 today and in my opinion he is definately better than this. The form of the Newmarket race has worked out really well, he beat Harris Tweed by just under 2 lengths without much use of the whip at all and he has since won a 15 race handicap off a mark 1lb higher in great fashion, winning by 5 lengths. This was then followed by a 2nd place in a Group 3 race, was 5 lengths clear of the 3rd place and he only went down by three quarters of a length to Corsica who Mark Johnston also trains. I definately feel he is still quite a bit ahead of the handicapper and should take all the beating in this race. Ground conditions are also in his favour. 2pt win Green Lightening @ 2/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 14:40 Leopardstown Its not often I venture into Ireland at all but this group 1 contest can go the way of the lightly raced Bethrah who is seeking her fourth win in a row. Its clear she is an improving filly and she confirmed that promise by landing the 1,000 guineas over the distance at the Curragh in her last appearance 104 days ago. She found a gap on the rail in the closing stages where she ran on strongly to win the race by a head. She has already won over todays course and distance as well, she landed a group 3 here on her penultimate start on the 9th of May. Pat Smullen knows her well by now and I will expect to see her rattling home late once again today under a patient ride. 1pt win Bethrah @ 4/1 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Shocker of a day, both never run to their potential at all in my opinion, Green Lightening in particular ran an absolute shocker, the 2/1 I had looked fantastic value considering he went off at 10/11. Finished last in the end, awful run. Might be one to strike a line through as the horse clearly has some sort of problems.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 15:45 York Five Star Junior has a great chance of landing this in what has been a decent 2010 for him. Hes won 2 races from 10 on turf this year with both his wins coming over the minimum trip. Hes easily as good, if not better over 6 furlongs having won 4 times over the trip although they have all been on the AW. 3lbs higher than his win at Newmarket. Gets Good To Firm ground today which both his turf wins have come on. Trainer must fancy his chances in this having withdrawn from a race on Friday (unsure of the exact reason) and coming here for this race instead. Has run off todays mark of 94 in his previous three races, ran a solid race at Goodwood 3 starts ago in the Stewards Sprint, was denied a clear run around 1 furlong out but ran on well when finding a gap to finish 6/27 (4/13 in group). He was then 2nd at Nottingham over the minimum trip, was a bit short of room that day as well and was squeezed out and then finally he had a poor run at Sandown LTO but that can be excused as he was hampered at the start and never really got going afterwards. First visit to York so no previous course form to go on. 0.5pts E/W Five Star Junior @ 16/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 16:20 York Theola has been ultra consistent since making the step up to 16 furlongs and further having raced over 10-14 furlongs in her first five races. Was 2nd at Goodwood over this trip when making the step up for the first time and has since won three times ranging from trips over 16-18 furlongs. Is only 1lb higher than her win at Chester (won off a mark of 79) back in July but Ashley Morgan takes off 5lbs today so she is definately well in at the weights today considering she has also won off a mark of 75 which came at this course. Trainer landed the race last year and definately has a chance of winning the contest again with this horse. 1pt win Theola @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Update: Uphold (-2.00) Mayson (-2.00) Bondage (1st @ 7/2, 4/1 ADV) + 4.00 Fastnet Storm (-0.50) Triple Dream (-0.50) Buxton (-1.00) Justcallmehandsome (-1.00) Folly Bridge (3rd @ 15/2) + 0.88 Bollin Judith (1st @ 11/4, 3/1 ADV) + 3.00 Titus Andronicus (-1.00) Green Lightening (-2.00) Bethrah (-1.00) Five Star Junior (-1.00) Theola (-1.00) Profit/(Loss): (5.12) Bets made: 289 Won - 38 Places - 17 Pts Staked: 347.50 Pts Returned: 361.48 Profit/(Loss): 13.98 Poor week despite two winners and a place, pity the ones I decided to stake bigger on weren't up to the task. Still in profit which is the main thing and hopefully this week will be a better one.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 17:20 Newcastle Always Dazzling isn't the most consistent horse but I feel Mark Johnston's filly must have a chance in this race. Has only won one race to date which came on her first run of the season in a maiden race at Redcar over the distance. This was only her second run having had just the one run in 2009 as a 2 year old. Won with a bit in hand that day and was then sent handicapping off a mark of 67. Has tumbled down in the weights since and is now rated 59. Shes only managed two places from eight runs in handicap company, the first was a 3rd place at Yarmouth over 6 furlongs off a mark of 60. Put in a good run over this course and distance LTO by finishing 2/10, this was her first effort on Good To Soft ground. Runs off the same mark today so should hold decent claims if she can run to a similar level here today, especially with the drop down in grade. 0.5pts E/W Always Dazzling @ 8/1 (Stan James - BOG)

[markmywords]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread :hopeGood luck with this one Stu

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Thanks mate, eyeing up 1 or 2 at Bath as well, not the best days racing but thats sometimes where you can pick up a nice winner or two so fingers crossed.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 14:10 Bath I think its worth chancing Shaabek in this race at a decent price. Mich Channon's colt makes the step up to a mile today for the first time and is bred to appreciate the rise in trip. Best form came in a maiden race at Ascot where she showed a bit of promise, finishing a clear 2nd place by 4 lengths, was well beaten herself but only by the odds on favourite. Poor effort at Haydock since, not sure she appreciated the softer ground and she was slowly away at Wolverhampton LTO over 7 furlongs so there have been excuses for the poor runs. Good To Firm ground today should be right up her street and this is Channon's only runner on the card. He holds a 13% strike rate at this track and has already notched up 5 winners at the track this season. 0.5pt win Shaabek @ 10/1 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Not been having a good time of late, hopefully my luck will change tomorrow.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 15:10 Goodwood This class 4 Nursery is wide open and the market definately suggests that. The form of these races can be quite hard to work out but I am going for Brian Meehan's Indigo Way. He was well beaten in 7th place on his debut at Newbury over 6 furlongs in what looked a strong contest. The winner of that race has since won a Group 2, the 2nd place has won a maiden race and placed in a group 2 and the third place has won a maiden race and a group 2. Two other winners have come from the race including Indigo Way who went on to win at Doncaster LTO when upped in trip to 7 furlongs. Got up well to win in the final strides after staying on strongly, needed every yard of the trip so the step up to a mile today is sure to suit. Two runners from the race have went on to win since. Ryan Moore takes over the ride and he has a fantastic record at Goodwood with a 15% strike rate and an LSP of + 88.82. A lot seems to be in this horses favour and I fancy him to land this on his handicap bow. 1pt E/W Indigo Way @ 5/1 (Stan James - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 15:55 Lingfield Spanish Island is still lightly raced with only 4 runs to date and I fancy him to bounce back from a poor run at Kempton LTO. Broke his maiden tag at the 3rd attempt when he switched to the AW for the first time, winning by 4 lengths over this distance at Kempton. He was turned out again over the same course and distance 11 days later on his handicap bow and was well beaten, was always in the rear when he was prominent in his three previous races so I am willing to put a line through that run. Longer break for this race, drops 2lbs in the handicap and Dettori is an interesting jockey booking and he has a fantastic strike rate of 25% at the track. Along with a favourable high draw and the fact the trainer has a 22% strike rate at the track are amongst the other positives I have drawn up for this horse. Should definately be in with strong claims here if taking well to the switch back to turf. 0.5pts E/W Spanish Island @ 14/1 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Indigo Way wins @ 11/2, 20p rule 4 though but still a nice 5.28 profit from that one, my other selection Spanish Island was a non-runner. Might have one more selection lined up yet but will decide on that in the next 15-20 minutes.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 16:55 Goodwood Gifted Apakay has been running consistently enough in 2010 and finally got a deserved success at Newcastle LTO in a small handicap. Notched up a few places off marks in the low 70s on turf before landing the race at Newcastle off a mark of 74. Only raised 3lbs for a 1 and a quarter length victory so I believe that she is still ahead of the handicapper and can go on to land her second race in a row. Trip is perfect for her and the ground should also suit. Fallon is already amongst the winners today and I think he has a great chance of signing off the day with another winner in this race. 1.25pt win Gifted Apakay @ 7/2 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 14:00 Doncaster My Freedom travelled very smoothly and won with a bit in hand over a slightly extended 6 furlongs at Nottingham on his debut last month. Beat a short priced favourite by 3 lengths after forging clear inside the final furlong when asked to pick up. Should appreciate the step up in trip and having won the race on Good Ground, the slightly softer surface shouldn't pose too much of a problem. Entitled to come on for that run and I would expect him to improve in his nursery bow here today. 1pt win My Freedom @ 3/1 (>VC Bet - BOG)