Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Non-runner now so no selections today, might update figures tonight but might just wait until after the weekend since there's no doubt I will have a couple of selections somewhere although I am going to be busy over the next few days.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 16:40 Ayr I tipped up Trailblazing on the AW on his penultimate start where he was 3rd over 7 furlongs at Southwell. He was quite detatched early on that day but stayed on extremely well to take 3rd place despite being well held. Since then stepped up to 10 furlongs at Lingfield where he went one better to finish in 2nd place. Runs off the same mark of 70 today and the return to turf seems interesting as I really do think a win is not far away from him, especially if he can carry his AW form back onto the turf. The blinkers were introduced for both those races so maybe they had a good effect on him and I will be hoping for similar here today. Runs over 9 furlongs today so it will be interesting to see how he does. His maiden win has worked out well as several other horses have come out and gone on to win some nice races. Not got much time to go into the full details but they are in my write up from the Southwell race. 1pt win Trailblazing @ 6/1 (Stan James - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Well that was woeful, still a profitable past 7 days, don't think I will bother tomorrow or Sunday. Got a lot on this weekend to have a proper study. Will update figures at some point though.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Update: Red Jazz (1st @ 5/1, 6/1 adv) + 15.00 Al Farahidi (-1.00) Master Of Dance (-1.00) Flaneur (-1.00) Tariq Too (-2.00) Munsarim (-1.00) Trailblazing (-1.00) Total: + 8.00 Totals: Bets made: 346 Won - 45 Places - 21 Pts Staked: 430.65 Pts Returned: 453.26 Profit/(Loss): 22.61

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 16:50 Catterick Going to take a chance on previous course and distance winner Your Gifted here. This filly has had 19 runs so far and her only win to date came over this CD in similar conditions back in April. She wasn't the most straighforward that day having swerved right at the start and edging to the right inside the final furlong but she hung on to win by a nose. That was off a mark of 55 and today she runs off a mark of 57 so she must have claims off a 2lb higher mark here today. Has run off this mark in her past 3 races, the best of those came 3 outings ago when she was only beaten a head in second place at Warwick over this trip and in soft ground. Excuses in other runs having been slowly away LTO and 4 of her other runs since the win have all come in Good To Firm conditions which doesn't seem to suit her, especially since all her best form has come on ground softer than good. Trainer, Pat Morris has a fantastic record at this track and doesn't often send runners here. From 19 runners he has had 4 winners and two 2nds which is a 21% win strike rate and a 32% place strike rate which is fairly impressive for such a small yard. 0.5pts E/W Your Gifted @ 20/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 16:25 Musselburgh Lady Paris was a horse I tipped up LTO at York in what was her debut in handicap company. She finished 4th that day in a 14 runner race which I thought was a decent enough performance. Bumped the start but I thought she travelled really well before weakening inside the final 100 yards. Should have a much better chance today off the same mark in a smaller field and particularly with a drop down in class. I stuck her in my notebook after her debut run and she followed that run up with a win at a short price in a class 5 maiden race at Haydock over 6 furlongs. She made all that day and really did blaze a trail on her rivals. She went on to win by 2 lengths after staying on strongly inside the final furlong. Looked to have a bit of speed about her that day and in the race at York LTO so the drop down to the minimum trip is not a concern for me today. Conditions will be fine for her having won in soft ground and the race at York was in GS conditions. 2pt win Lady Paris @ 5/2 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Just couldn't get a gap, denied on more than one occasion :sad

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 16:10 Newmarket Sea Of Galilee is the one I like in this race. Henry Candy's filly makes the step up to 12 furlongs for the first time today which is sure to suit and may bring out some extra improvement in her. She is still unexposed having only had three runs to date, all of which came over 10 furlongs. Her last two races have both been at Nottingham where she won a maiden race on her second start. Won by a comfortable enough 3 lengths that day and followed that race up with a decent 3rd place on her handicap debut off a mark of 81. Raised 3lbs for that run but that definitely doesn't rule her out of this race, especially since she is still lightly raced and this will only be her second run in handicap company. Conditions to suit as well having won her maiden race in good to soft ground. 1pt win Sea Of Galilee @ 15/2 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 15:10 Newmarket Not much form to go by in this race but I like the chances of Clive Brittain's filly Nabah who has had just the two runs to date. She has finished 4th in both her runs so far, with the latest effort being in a Group 2 contest at this course over 7 furlongs. She was still a bit green that day but did get the hang of things eventually when she stayed on inside the final furlong although she was already beaten by that point. This suggests to me that the step up to a mile should suit and could bring out some extra improvement in her. I expect her to run a good race today if the penny drops quicker and she shows no signs of greeness. 1pt E/W Nabah @ 7/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Not going to be much more bets in here this week, if any at all as I have a lot on this upcoming week.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread One for today: 14:55 Nottingham I like the look of Tilsworth Glenboy in todays race. He was last on track just five days ago where he goes unpenalised for a decent run at Newmarket. Finished three quarters of a length behind the winner in second place in a class 5 handicap. Could be deemed quite unlucky in the race as he was denied a clear run 2 furlongs out although he did kick on into the lead before finding no extra once he was passed but I guess it could be argued that if he had got the gap earlier he may have had the race wrapped up. Is due to go up 2lbs for that effort so he has a chance to win off the same mark today in what looks like similar conditions - trip and grade of race are the same. The going is a lot more on the soft side but his best form has been in soft ground so I am sure he will cope with todays heavy ground. His only win came this season at Yarmouth off a mark of 55 over todays mile trip and in soft ground. Hosed up by 5 lengths that day and was raised 13lbs for his efforts. Is still 13lbs higher today but the close 2nd LTO suggests to me he is capable of winning off this mark. 2pt win Tilsworth Glenboy @ 11/2 (Paddy Power - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Final totals: Your Gifted (-1.00) Lady Paris (-2.00) Sea Of Galilee (-1.00) Nabah (-2.00) Tilsworth Glenboy (-2.00) Total: (-8.00) Bets made: 351 Won - 45 Places - 21 Pts Staked: 438.65 Pts Returned: 453.26 Profit/(Loss): 16.61 Well it ends with a 16.61 profit which I am pleased enough about despite having a torried time the last couple of months. Would have been nice to have made the 50 winners mark but I really didn't have the time the past couple of months which is part of the reason I think I have struggled a bit but never mind, the profit is good enough. Not sure how to edit the title so if somebody would be so kind to write the final totla in the title for this it would be muchly appreciated. See you all for the next flat season :ok