Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 2nd, 3rd and 4th yesterday, close but not close enough, can't complain after the spell I have had though.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Handsome Falcon (-1.00) Luv U Noo (1st @ 16/1 - 25/1 ADV) + 15.00 Film Festival (-2.00) Lava Lamp (-0.50) Zero Money (1st @ 3/1) + 6.00 Al Aasifh (1st @ 2/1 - 9/2 ADV) + 4.50 Emerging Artist (1st @ 11/4) + 2.75 The Hermitage (-0.50) Mushreq (-1.00) Mykingdomforahorse (-0.50) Rocket Rob (-1.00) Week Totals: Bets: 11 Won: 4 Places: 0 Pts Staked: 11.50 Pts Returned: 33.25 Profit: 21.75 :nana:nana Overall totals: Bets made: 222 Won - 28 Places - 12 Pts Staked: 259.30 Pts Returned: 264.03 Profit/(Loss): 4.73 What a cracking week I have had, the break seemed to have done me good with 4 winners this week at 25/1, 9/2, 3/1 and 11/4. Chuffed to bits and the thread is back into a small profit, I'm just happy that the minus has disappeared to be honest. Hopefully I can build on this week, a nice meeting at Ayr tomorrow and Windsor as well so I will no doubt have a few bets tomorrow.

[pablo74]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread :notworthy Great stuff Simmy.... keep it up :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Thanks mate, appreciate the comments :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 16:00 Ayr I believe top weight Forrest Flyer holds strong claims in this race. The horse absolutely thrives over this distance with 8 runs in total, winning 3 times and placing four times. 6 of those runs over the distance has been over this course and distance where he has won 3 and placed twice so its clear to see he acts very well at this course. Has started the season well for his new trainer with 1 win (over CD) and 2 places and is now running off a mark of 70 today. It will take a career best from him to land this race but he is only 4lbs higher than his best win to date and at a track he loves, I see no reason why he can't do so. Jamie Spencer doesn't ride very often for the trainer so thats a bit of an interesting booking for me. Trainer already has a winner on the card today which is another positive. 1pt win Forrest Flyer @ 4/1 (Stan James - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Another 2nd, can't complain after last week really but its nice to see I am still there or thereabouts. Couple of nice races later on, still to decide whether to get involved or not.

[fintron]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread good work Stu, some juicy winners last week :clap

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread

good work Stu' date=' some juicy winners last week :clap[/quote'] Cheers mate :ok It was a much better week than I had anticipated, Luv U Noo really set the ball rolling and at one point I had 3 in a row. Might not top that for the rest of the season to be honest. My main aim now is to slowly build up a decent profit :hope

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 20:40 Windsor Our Drama Queen looks to be progressing nicely now she has gone handicapping. Was a very close 2nd on her handicap debut over this course and distance at the end of last month. Richard Hughes then took over in the saddle for the first time 10 days ago at Newbury over 7 furlongs. Travelled really well that day before being denied a clear run but when she finally got a bit of room she stayed on really well to land the race. Raised 7lbs for that but I feel she is likely to progress again, especially with Hughes on board once again. This doesn't look the strongest of races and looks the perfect opportunity to get a second win to her name, especially at a track Hannon and Hughes do so well at. They already have a winner on the card tonight and it won't be a surprise if this one makes it two. 2pt win Our Drama Queen @ 2/1 (Skybet)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 14:45 Yarmouth Bathwick Xaara is still a maiden after 11 runs runs to date and from those she has only managed 3 places. Was rated 72 when first sent handicapping back in August 2009 and is now only rated 59. Her best two efforts to date have both come over this trip in GF ground in 2010. The first was a 3rd place at Chepstow on her seasonal reappearance before going on to run a great race at Salisbury in behind Decency. She was only half a length behind that day in 2nd place off a mark of 57. 7 furlongs LTO may have stretched her and I feel the return to 6 furlongs and a slight drop in grade may finally see her get off the mark. John Fahy takes off 5lbs and with a slight allowance for her age means she is running off a handy weight. 0.5pt win Bathwick Xaara @ 13/2 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 15:45 Yarmouth I fancy Astrodonna to land her second race over course and distance today. Her last win came here in August 2009 off todays mark of 65. This is the first time she has dropped down to this mark since the win and therefore she is on a winnable mark. Ashley Morgan was on board that day and is back on board today which will be welcomed after an inexperienced jockey was on board LTO. That run can be ignored I feel as the race was probably too sharp a test for her. Best effort so far in 2010 was on her penultimate start when 4th at Carlisle off a mark 3lbs higher, was only 1 length behind that day after staying on well. She has a great record over course and distance with form of 2621 so a good account is expected once again. 0.5pt Win Astrodonna @ 13/2 (Coral - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 15:40 Catterick David Allan heads to Catterick for one ride today and this is my selection for this race. Mullglen is a previous course and distance winner and course form can prove vital here at Catterick. The win over course and distance came in July 2009 off a mark of 73 which is just 1lb lower than the mark he runs off today so he definately holds strong claims. Its the only time the gelding has run at Catterick but he has won three more races over the minimum trip, the latest coming at Thirsk back in May off a mark of 73 once again. Did win off a mark of 76 in 2008 as a 2 year old so he is below his best winning mark. David Allan gets on very well with the horse having won on board on all four of his wins. Hes also placed on him once and holds a 33% strike win rate on board. The softish ground shouldn't be a problem having won on GS twice and placing once from 4 runs on the ground. His course and distance win also came on GS going. 1pt win Mullglen @ 11/2 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Just one place from the last three, was looking at one more in the next race at Catterick but not going to bother, away to look at the nights racing so hopefully a winner tonight or over the next couple of days can get me back on track again.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 15:55 Sandown Wide open race this with several horses having strong claims. I'm torn between two here so going to have two bets in the race. Firstly All The Winds made his UK debut for his new trainer last month in what was his first run since November, he finished a very creditable second place that day and is definately entitled to come on for that run. Should be fitter for this and the drop back of two furlongs should be suited. Is up in class but he travelled extremely well in said race and gave the eventual winner a cracking race only going down by quarter of a length. Just going for a small win on the horse, the place money is still good value but I'm willing to risk it on the nose. My other fancy in the race is the John Dunlop trained Harlestone Times who runs off bottom weight in this race. Ran one of his best races to date in quick conditions when finishing 3rd at Ffos Las in a class 4 maiden on his penultimate start. He was last on the track back in October when second to Avon Lady at Brighton. It seems as if he has been running over inadequate trips so far so its fair to say he has shown some promise, especially in his last two races. This is his first race in handicap company and he really is running off a featherweight, the step up in trip is sure to suit as well as he is bred to suit middle distances. This is his seasonal reappearance so fitness is my main concern but at the price I'm willing to chance that the trainer has him ready. Still lightly raced and is likely to progress having been gelded over the winter. David Probert is an interesting jockey booking having never been in the saddle for the trainer before. The trainer is having a relatively good year with a 15% strike rate and he also boasts a 15% strike rate at this track. 0.5pt Win All The Winds @ 8/1 (Paddy Power - BOG) 0.75pt E/W Harlestone Times @ 12/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 15:20 Sandown I think this race is between the top 2 in the market. Crying Lightening won a class 4 maiden at Leciester over the minimum trip on the 1st of June and then went on to race in Group company at Ascot just 12 days later. That race was over 6 furlongs and she was running on well at the end to take 6th place (2nd of 12 on the far side). The leader of the far side has since dropped back into Listed company but was well beaten and although the step up to 7f could bring out more improvement in Peter Chapple-Hyam's filly, I will be siding with the Richard Hannon horse. Admirable Spirit won her maiden at Newbury over 6 furlongs in her only race to date. Won by a length that day and the 2nd place was a further 2 lengths clear of the rest of the field. Hard to judge how strong that race is yet but one thing is for sure is that the horse will only improve, especially with the step up to 7 furlongs today. Hannon has his 2 year olds in fantastic form and this could be another prize for him to take down. Quick conditions to suit as well. 2pt win Admirable Spirit @ 3/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 17:00 Sandown One that I like in the final race on this card is Sairaam. Has had a consistent season so far when making his return to turf, hes had the 5 runs so far with two wins and a place. Was well beaten in 5th place in a decent enough race (2nd, 3rd and 6th have won since) at Doncaster on his reappearance off a mark of 56 in this grade but he did follow that up with a win down in class at Thirsk off a mark of 53. Followed that with a place off a mark of 60 before going on to win again at Newcastle in this grade off a mark of 62. Up 4lbs for that effort and did fade away late in his last race 26 days ago at Doncaster which suggests the handicapper may have him in hand off this mark but I feel he is worth another chance given he has been fairly consistent so far this season. Ian Brennan also takes the ride today, he claims 5lbs which will very useful and should give the horse a great chance of notching up his 3rd win of the season. 1pt win Sairaam @ 8/1 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Awful week, Sairaam hit 2.62 in running as well :sad Back into a loss now albeit a small one.

[Spooner]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Ups and down eh Stu!

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread

Ups and down eh Stu!

Just noticed your comment now. Like a bloody yo-yo :lol Tomorrows racing doesn't look too great in the afternoon, York and Newmarket at night though so might be some good races there. One race at Ascot I will likely have a bet in, just studying it now but it might be a no bet yet. I'm still happy with the situation I am in compared to 2-3 weeks back and I never imagined wiping the loss in one or two weeks so there we go. One winner over the weekend could turn it back into a profit so :hope

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 15:55 Ascot This 2 mile handicap looks a tough nut to crack and you can make claims for several of the horses in this race, especially since 4 of them lined up against each other over course and distance just 2 weeks ago at the Royal meeting. My selection lies with one of the four and either of the 4 could potentially land this race. Keenes Day was blinkered that day and I don't think he appreciated them at all and it seemed as if it knocked his concentration a bit, in saying that his record on turf is poor, 1 win from 15 with 0 places whereas on the AW he has won 3 and placed twice from 7 runs. Blinkers are off today so we will see how he goes. Satwa Gold ran a good race in 3rd, especially since his odds suggested he was one of the outsiders (33/1), ran on well towards the end and should have strong claims again off the same mark. Tom Queally has only been on board twice and that form reads 21 so he seems to get on well with the horse and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him ride the horse to another win. Desert Recluse was 6th in the race, has won 5 handicaps this year and is likely to still be progressing, has a weight allowance for being 3 years old and Kieren Fox also takes off 5lbs so could be dangerous. This leads me to my selection for the race - Hevelius - he finished 5th in the race after running on really strongly at the end. Did not get a clear run when 3 furlongs out and was forced a bit wide before running on strongly so could possibly have finished closer if he did not have to be pulled out so wide. This was his first race over the trip and judging by that effort it looks sure to suit, with a bit more luck in running today he could be a big danger. He has a had a string of seconds where he has traded at a short prices in running, I think the main reason is that he does run on strongly at the end of a race but just can never reach the leaders it seems, this could be due to being denied a clear run or making a move too late so hopefully Kirby can make a move at the right time today and steer him home in first place. Colloquial and Aim To Prosper are also worth mentioning, the former won LTO in good enough fashion and only faces a 4lb rise for that, only his 3rd run this season but after more than a year off track that is definately worth noting but the fact he is 9 years old puts me off a bit. The latter is a course and distance winner and only 3lbs higher than his last win. Anyway my vote goes to Hevelius. 1pt win Hevelius @ 11/2 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 3rd :sad Hopefully Hanagan can change my fortunes for the week in this next race at Thirsk :hope 16:20 Thirsk Going to take my chances here with Tim Walford's gelding Hail Tiberius. Four races to date have all come over 8-10 furlongs and although he was very poor in his handicap debut at Pontefract LTO, I am willing to give the horse another chance due to several factors. Firstly he is stepped up in trip to 12 furlongs today which could bring out some improvement in the horse, especially since his best effort to date was a 2nd place at Haydock over 10 furlongs where he stayed on well to take 2nd place in the last strides. Secondly, he did improve on every run in maiden company and if the last run can be ignored then he should have a good chance of landing a race of this type. Thirdly, Paul Hanagan takes the ride for the first time and he has been in outstanding form all season. He doesn't often ride for this trainer but has won once from 4 rides when doing so which is a nice record. Finally, the good ground shouldn't be a problem and if Hanagan can get him settled then I feel he has a great chance of winning this race. 1pt E/W Hail Tiberius @ 14/1 (Stan James - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Ran on to take 4th :lol When your lucks out... Thinking about a break tomorrow but will decide that between now and then, around -8 in the thread again after a terrible week.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Found one I like for today: 15:05 York The one I like in this Group 2 contest is Bushman from the David Simcock yard. This horse is fairly lightly raced for a 6 year old having only had 15 runs. From those he has managed 5 wins (1 maiden, 1 handicap, 1 conditions stakes, 1 listed and 1 group3) and 4 places so he has a very consistent profile. He has really came alive this season with a win in Listed company at Windsor on his reappearance before going on to win a group 3 race LTO at Epsom over a furlong further. Back up in trip again today up to 10 furlongs which is a distance he broke his maiden tag over. Has only managed 1 place from 4 runs over the distance since but I have no doubts about him getting the trip today. The trainer is having a fantastic month with 8 wins from 25 runners (32% SR) and a further 6 places on top of that. Callan is an interesting jockey booking and he takes the ride for the first time today. He is one of the top jockeys around in my opinion. William Buick and Kieren Fallon have been on board for the 2 wins this season but ride for their respective trainers so that isn't putting me off the horse at all. 1pt E/W Bushman @ 5/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 17:20 York William Morgan getts my vote in this class 4 handicap. Only had the thirteen runs to date, managing two wins and four places from those. Has had three runs over this course and distance, won once off a mark of 71 in GS conditions, placed off a mark of 78 in GF conditions on his 3rd run of the season and finally was 14/19 LTO off a mark of 77. Dropped 2lbs in the handicap to a mark of 75 which I feel he can win off, Kieren Fallon is also an interesting jockey booking, hes already had two winners on the card and so has trainer Richard Fahey. 0.5pt E/W William Morgan @ 14/1 (Stan James - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Bushman placed and the other was nowhere, hopefully I can gain a bit of compensation with a winner today. 16:35 Ascot Ouster is still relatively lightly raced with only 9 runs to date. Three of these have been over today's trip of 12 furlongs which seems to be where his best pieces of form come from. His first run over the trip can be ignored but since then he has managed a win and a place over the trip off marks of 81 and 86. Was in behind two that line up again here LTO but due to not going up in the handicap he is receiving a lot of weight from the both of them (compared to their last encounter) this time around as both horses have went up in the handicap and Declan Cannon takes off 5lbs which could prove to be very vital. He has an 11lb swing in the weights with Times Up and a 10lb swing in the weights with Bay Willow. Trainer is in fantastic form, with 6 winners and 6 2nd places out of his last 15 runners. In fact from 23 runners in July he has had 7 winners and 10 places which works out at a fantastic place strike rate of 74% and a 30% win rate. 1pt E/W Ouster @ 9/1 (>Paddy Power - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Will need to get this updated, torried week though, lets hope it changes this week :hope 16:35 Goodwood Start Right has done his best running over today's trip of 8 furlongs. Three of his 10 runs have been over the mile trip where he has notched up 1 win and 2 places. His win over the distance came LTO at Newmarket where he won a class 2 handicap by half a length. Ran on well to land the race and is only raised 4lbs so is definately in with a chance of a second win in a row, especially since he is dropping down in grade. Still lightly raced so I believe there is more to come from the horse. This is Cumani's only horse at the meeting today since his other declared runner is now a non-runner. 2pt win Start Right @ 9/2 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Won @ 7/2 :nana Nice start to the week anyway, will have clawed back a big chunk of last weeks lost which I will tryand update tonight.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 14:10 Goodwood Two each way bets for me in this race at big prices. Firstly the five year old and bottom weight Ambrose Princess should not be without a chance in this race. Has been fairly consistent on the flat over the years with only 3 unplaced efforts from her last 15 runs. Only four of those have resulted in wins with the latest coming LTO at Lingfield where she won a class 5 handicap in good fashion. Raised 10lbs for that but is definately worth a chance off this mark of 70, she is rated 120 over hurdles. Has won over distances ranging from 16-24 furlongs so the trip shouldn't pose a problem and ground conditions should also be fine for her. Strong place claims in my opinion at the very least. Baddam is my other choice here, he won the race in 2008 off a mark 9lbs higher so has to be in with a chance today on that basis alone. Has won on three other occasions on turf off higher marks than he runs off today, all over similar distances and in similar ground conditions. Has had a win over jumps this year and won twice over hurdles last year so he is still definately up to winning races. Is rated 130 over hurdles. Hanagan takes the ride and we all know just how good a season he is having. 0.5pts E/W Ambrose Princess @ 22/1 (>Bet365 - BOG) 0.5pts E/W Baddam @ 28/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Ambrose Princess 5th :sad Baddam stayed on well, was left behind a bit at the start so if he had started well he might have been closer.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Update: Forrest Flyer (-1.00) Our Drama Queen (-2.00) Bathwick Xaara (-0.50) Astrodonna (-0.50) Mullglen (-1.00) All The Winds (-0.50) Harlestone Tims (-1.50) Admirable Spirit (-2.00) Sairaam (-1.00) Hevelius (-1.00) Hail Tiberius (-2.00) Busman (2nd) + 0.25 William Morgan (-1.00) Ouster (-2.00) Start Right (Won @ 7/2 - ADV 9/2) + 9.00 Ambrose Princess (-1.00) Baddam (-1.00) Total: (8.75) Bets made: 239 Won - 29 Places - 13 Pts Staked: 281.30 Pts Returned: 277.28 Profit/(Loss): (4.02) Back into a small loss after a bit of a bad run as of late, luckily Start Right changed my fortunes a bit but even after that it was a bad 10 days for me, will be aiming to get back into a profit as soon as possible again. Eyeing up a couple of bets today so will post them up as soon as possible.