Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 14:55 Warwick It seems as if low draws are slightly favourable here so this should be one positive for my selection who is drawn in stall 1. Alfresco had only his 2nd turf run this year LTO at Goodwood over the distance where stayed on well to get up and win the race by a neck. Only raised 2lbs for that effort but he has won off a 2lb higher mark at Goodwood previously (in May 2009) and is rated 7lbs higher on the AW where he has won off a mark as high as 91 (2008). Fallon took the ride for the first time LTO and he is on board once again which is another positive for me. 2pt win Alfresco @ 9/2 (WillHill - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Another 2nd and the stinking run continues but I will plod along, going on holiday a week on Sunday, I think I will miss the big meeting at Newmarket but I think 7-9 days will be very welcomed for me and hopefully I can come back and overturn this loss if I haven't already by then. I would like to be around the (-15.00) mark at least before I go though.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 14:30 Folkstone This is such a speculative punt from me but it has worked in my favour before and even if the horse places I am looking at a tidy enough profit due to the current price. Will Barrow is only one of two in the race that will be making his debut in this class 5 maiden. He is from the Jim Boyle yard who has a 12% strike rate at this track and although he has yet to win with a 2 year old this season, he has only had just the three 2 year old runners so I am willing to ignore that. Stable is in nice enough form with 1 winner and 3 places from 13 runs in the past 14 days. Stephen Craine takes the ride and he has a fantastic record at the course with 2 winners from 5 rides which equates to a nice 40% strike rate. This is his only ride of the day which I find quite interesting. There may be a bit of market movement before the race if the trainer fancies the horse so hopefully it gets slashed into half the price I have managed to get. 0.5pts E/W Will Barrow @ 40/1 (Stan James - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 16:35 Doncaster Mac's Power looked a certain winner at this course over the mile trip LTO until he was collared late home by Luca Cumani's Major Phil who was raised 6lbs for that effort. Its fair to say if the race was over 7 furlongs he would have more than likely won the race having kicked 3 lengths clear around 2 furlongs out. He was also beaten by another nice Luca Cumani horse in his penultimate race at Newmarket over today's trip. Day Of The Eagle has went on to win off a 8lb higher mark and is now rated 16lbs higher than when winning that day. Mac's Power was denied a clear run that day and still managed to finish in 3rd place. After knocking on the door a couple of times I feel today could be his day, especially since he has won off this mark on the AW at Kempton which came back in September last year. Hes only had the three runs this term, 1 on the AW and the two runs I have mentioned but he has been progressing well so it won't be a surprise to see him land this race as it doesn't look the best of contests. 3pt win Mac's Power @ 13/8 (Stan James - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread

16:35 Doncaster Mac's Power looked a certain winner at this course over the mile trip LTO until he was collared late home by Luca Cumani's Major Phil who was raised 6lbs for that effort. Its fair to say if the race was over 7 furlongs he would have more than likely won the race having kicked 3 lengths clear around 2 furlongs out. He was also beaten by another nice Luca Cumani horse in his penultimate race at Newmarket over today's trip. Day Of The Eagle has went on to win off a 8lb higher mark and is now rated 16lbs higher than when winning that day. Mac's Power was denied a clear run that day and still managed to finish in 3rd place. After knocking on the door a couple of times I feel today could be his day, especially since he has won off this mark on the AW at Kempton which came back in September last year. Hes only had the three runs this term, 1 on the AW and the two runs I have mentioned but he has been progressing well so it won't be a surprise to see him land this race as it doesn't look the best of contests. 3pt win Mac's Power @ 13/8 (Stan James - BOG)

Finally :nana Won @ 11/8 as well :)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Going to have a day off today, too much racing and so little time unfortunately :(

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 15:00 Salisbury Misaro looks cracking value in this race to me having won this race the previous 2 years and having a 100% strike rate over course and distance. His other 2 appearances at the course were over 6 furlongs where he finished 4th and 8th. His turf form has not been so great this year but he has had 2 wins on the AW to keep him ticking over. David Probert is on board today and he took the ride when Misaro won this race last year off a 4lb higher mark and it was Hadden Frost who was on board 2 years ago off a 1lb higher mark. The fact he is running off a lower mark than the last 2 years should definately give him a great chance of winning this race once again and I believe the trainer will have had this race in mind for him for quite a while now. His form last year before going on to win this race looks pretty similar to this year having been well beaten on previous outings so it is not a concern that his turf form has been so poor so far in 2010. 1pt E/W Misaro @ 12/1 (WillHill - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 16:15 Pontefract Tight little affair this but I am going to side with Meetings Man. Had a shot over hurdles for the first time LTO over 2m1f at Sedgefield where he ran out a 2 length winner. Before that his form on the flat was pretty good. His first 2 runs of the season were nothing spectacular and included a 4th place over course and distance but since then he has ran out an easy winner at Hamilton over the distance off a mark of 58 and then followed up with a 3rd and a 2nd place. The 2nd place at Hamilton was his last run on the flat which came 25 days ago. That was over a furlong shorter and he was only beaten by the odds on favourite that day so its fair to say he still ran a good race. Runs off that same mark of 64 today but Patrick Donaghy takes off a vital 5lbs. This course is a test of stamina so the fact he has won over further over hurdles suggests to me he has the stamina to tackle this uphill finish at a distance he has previously won over. 2pt win Meetings Man @ 7/2 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Update: Mr Perceptive (-2.00) Karaka Jack (-1.50) Alfresco (2nd) (-2.00) Will Barrow (-1.00) Mac's Power (1st @ 11/8) + 4.88 Misaro (2nd @ 11/1) + 2.00 Totals: 0.38 Bets made: 198 Won - 21 Places - 11 Pts Staked: 231.30 Pts Returned: 206.92 Profit/(Loss): (24.38) Did not have many bets at all this week which I am happy about, 1 winner and 2 places (only one of those backed each way) which did result in a small profit. Lets hope from now until Saturday I can get this loss down a bit before I go on holiday. Still to look through the rest of the Ponte card and any tonight so 1/2 winners today would be a nice start if I decide to have anymore bets.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 21:10 Windsor Jasmeno from the Hughie Morrison yard may have a slight chance in this race off a very lenient mark. It isn't a strong looking contest and with only 4 races to date this one may be in with a chance today. Ran off a mark of 64 on his handicap debut where he was well beaten over 2 furlongs further at Nottingham. His previous 3 runs were all over this trip and although he wasn't very close in all three of those races I am willing to stick by him off this lowly mark, especially since he has the chance to improve on his previous runs. Steve Drowne also takes the ride for the first time which may see a change in the horses fortunes. 0.5pts E/W Jasmeno @ 16/1 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 21:25 Musselburgh I think there is a bit of value to be found in this race, especially since it is a weak looking contest. Lady Vyrnwy from the Richard Fahey stable is still lightly raced and could possibly be suited to a sharper track having run poorly on galloping tracks so far to date. Paul Hanagan was on board at Carlisle where she was 3rd over this trip and that was arguably her best effort to date. Dispol Kabira did win that race but with the a 3lb pull in the weights and the fact my selection is still unexposed, I would not be surprised to see a pull in the weights. Choc A Moca is also interesting for me in the first time visor, he is also lightly raced but I am willing to ignore this one for just now. 1pt E/W Lady Vyrnwy @ 17/2 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread

21:25 Musselburgh I think there is a bit of value to be found in this race, especially since it is a weak looking contest. Lady Vyrnwy from the Richard Fahey stable is still lightly raced and could possibly be suited to a sharper track having run poorly on galloping tracks so far to date. Paul Hanagan was on board at Carlisle where she was 3rd over this trip and that was arguably her best effort to date. Dispol Kabira did win that race but with the a 3lb pull in the weights and the fact my selection is still unexposed, I would not be surprised to see a pull in the weights. Choc A Moca is also interesting for me in the first time visor, he is also lightly raced but I am willing to ignore this one for just now. 1pt E/W Lady Vyrnwy @ 17/2 (VC Bet - BOG)

:wall:wall Was going to split the 2pt stake between the two, how annoyed :wall Another dreadful day :sad

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Right lets hope for two winners today :hope 14:45 Hamilton Crimea looks to be Dandy Nicholls first string in this race with Adrian Nicholls taking the ride and a 5lb claimer on board his other horse in the race. He won a handicap over this course and distance back in July. Poor efforts since then and that probably explains why he is dropping into a claimer. He was previously with Mark Johnston who he won twice for (over CD and once at Thirsk over the distance) and this is only his 4th run to date for Dandy Nicholls in what will only be his 8th run to date so he still has a chance of improving and I think he should definately be able to land this race in conditions that will suit. Artsu and Wotashirtfull are hard to rule out but I just feel Crimea may have too much class for them. 15:45 Hamilton Gritstone has ran into some unexposed sorts in his last two handicap races and this could finally be his chance to get his head in front. He is lightly raced himself with only 6 runs to date. He has placed 4 times from 6 starts and although there are 2 horses that are less exposed in the race, I feel he will have too much class for the two of them and will finally win a race today. Paul Hanagan and Fahey have been a deadly duo all season and they both have impressive records at this track. Hanagan has a 22% strike with a LSP of 40.85. Fahey also has a 22% strike rate but his LSP has a profit of 11.80 which is still pretty good. 2pt double: Crimea @ 6/4 (VC Bet - BOG) Gritstone @ 6/4 (>Paddy Power - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread

Right lets hope for two winners today :hope 14:45 Hamilton Crimea looks to be Dandy Nicholls first string in this race with Adrian Nicholls taking the ride and a 5lb claimer on board his other horse in the race. He won a handicap over this course and distance back in July. Poor efforts since then and that probably explains why he is dropping into a claimer. He was previously with Mark Johnston who he won twice for (over CD and once at Thirsk over the distance) and this is only his 4th run to date for Dandy Nicholls in what will only be his 8th run to date so he still has a chance of improving and I think he should definately be able to land this race in conditions that will suit. Artsu and Wotashirtfull are hard to rule out but I just feel Crimea may have too much class for them. 15:45 Hamilton Gritstone has ran into some unexposed sorts in his last two handicap races and this could finally be his chance to get his head in front. He is lightly raced himself with only 6 runs to date. He has placed 4 times from 6 starts and although there are 2 horses that are less exposed in the race, I feel he will have too much class for the two of them and will finally win a race today. Paul Hanagan and Fahey have been a deadly duo all season and they both have impressive records at this track. Hanagan has a 22% strike with a LSP of 40.85. Fahey also has a 22% strike rate but his LSP has a profit of 11.80 which is still pretty good. 2pt double: Crimea @ 6/4 (VC Bet - BOG) Gritstone @ 6/4 (>Paddy Power - BOG)

Get in :nana:nana Crimea won @ 15/8 and Gristone was well backed into 10/11!

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 19:30 Thirsk Siding with the unexposed Fantastic Strike from the Mark Johnston yard here. His best form as a 2 year old came in his 3rd race where he was joint 2nd at Redcard over 6 furlongs in fast ground. The winner that day was 2 and a half lengths ahead but has since won a Group 3 race at Ayr in good fashion and has also featured in four group races since (2 Group 3 races, 1 Group 2 and 1 Group 1).That horse is now rated 104 on turf. Tried this trip for the first time on his last run of 2009 where he was 4/15 at Bath, was denied a clear run that day and still ran on well after being held up so if he gets the breaks today he should have a great chance of landing this race off a mark of 72. This will only be his 2nd race in handicap company, he is open to improvement and receives a three-year old allowance in the weights. Everything looks set for a big run. 1pt Win Fantastic Strike @ 6/1 (VC Bet - BOG) 20:00 Thirsk Another Johnston horse for me here. Green Agenda has not won since April 2009 but that win did come over this course and distance off a mark 17lbs higher. Two of his other wins in 2009 came off higher marks than he is today so he really is well handicapped and I really don't think it will be long until this horse goes in again. He is 15lbs lower than his first run in 2010 which shows hes really tumbled down in the handicap. His best placed finish so far was a 4th at Ayr and even then he was beaten by a long way. He had shown nothing in 3 runs in 2008 then turned it around in 2009 by notching up form of 11211 in his first 5 races in 2009 and with a lot of the Johnston horses running poorly and then going on to win, it wouldn't be a surprise if this one got his head in front. Joe Fanning has been on board for all four of his wins and hopefully today he can get him back in the winners enclosure. The horse clearly isn't the most straightforward but in a weak event I am willing to take a chance at the prices. 0.5pt win Green Agenda @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread IGNORE

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread

Poor couple of days again with the only return being Martyr placing. Had a day off again yesterday, only one for me during the day today but not looked at night yet. Will update figures after today. 15:15 Lingfield Aegean Shadow is seeking a hat-trick here and has a great chance of landing it off top weight. Firstly this is Cecil's only horse at the meeting which is a positive for me. The horse itself is still lightly raced having only had 4 runs to date. Won on her debut in a maiden at Leicester over 6 furlongs and then finished 7th in her handicap debut at Kempton over a mile. Returned to action at Lingfield on turf over 6 furlongs where she got up to win by a neck. Won fairly confortably just 15 days ago at Brighton over this trip, has been raised 9lbs for that but off a mark of 79 I am confident she is still on a lenient enough mark. 5pt win Aegean Shadow @ 10/11 (Ladbrokes - BOG)

I just realised when looking at my past results in this thread that this should be in the AW thread. The meeting was a mixed one on turf and the AW and I never noticed this race was on the AW. I have taken it out my figures and about to add the 5pt loss into my AW thread. If you follow my threads you know I keep the AW and Turf bets seperate so hope this ok :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Today's double will have wiped away a bit of the loss which is good news but no returns tonight after Fantastic Strike was a major disappointment (it did drift out so I wasn't too surprised) and Green Agenda was backed into 9/2 favourite and finished a half length 2nd. Would have been a fantastic result that if he had won considering I had 10/1.

[fintron]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread well done with todays double Stu :clap

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread

well done with todays double Stu :clap

Yipp what he said. Hamilton is a hard course for winners, i have left many a shirt at the exit gate lol. Bad times.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Cheers guys :ok Appreciate all comments and it was just relieving to get back on the winning trail. The last time I attempted a double only and not singles I had one winner from two.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread

Cheers guys :ok Appreciate all comments and it was just relieving to get back on the winning trail. The last time I attempted a double only and not singles I had one winner from two.

Do both stu, 2 x single bets + your Double

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Yeah that obviously did run through my mind and does make sense in the long-term since if one wins you can still make a profit or the loss is minimised. I probably would have changed it to a 1pt double if I had gone for the singles today though so in a way it was more profitable doing the double only today.

[markmywords]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Good advice from Jimmy there Stu but fair to you, you do not do double's often on your thread and today it was your best bet

[markmywords]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Today's double will have wiped away a bit of the loss which is good news but no returns tonight after Fantastic Strike was a major disappointment (it did drift out so I wasn't too surprised) and Green Agenda was backed into 9/2 favourite and finished a half length 2nd. Would have been a fantastic result that if he had won considering I had 10/1. Stuart since I joined Sept 09 you have come on leaps and bounds mate as everyone knows you improve with experience.Christmas time I classed myself as a punter similar to you but since then your thread would buy and sell all my selections on this site as you know there are peaks and troughs just be ready for both and the way you are progressing you will get there. Remember discipline man that is the key factor for a punter. It is near impossible to pick the winners of every race today you had 2/4 and one of them 1/2 length 10/1 2nd which racing throws at you. You will have 3 photo 2nds but realise you are nearly there. For another day that photo will give you a nice price winner. Its not about today although today gives you the buzz.Enjoy your research man.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Thanks for the kind words mate :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 15:30 Catterick Sir Nod gets my vote in this race. Has won twice already from 4 runs so far in 2010 so hes having a good year to date. He won on his reappearance at Wolverhampton over 6 furlongs on the AW off a mark of 71 before flopping at Southwell. He then went on to win at Thirsk over this distance again off a mark of 73. Raised 4lbs for that and was 3rd over this course and distance LTO with Tom Eaves in the saddle. Did not get a clear run over a furlong out and although he plugged on at the same pace inside the final furlong he was only beaten 3 quarters of a length. Paul Hanagan is back on board having been on board the three previous runs this season and winning on board 4 times in total. It will take a career best off todays mark of 77 but he has been in good heart so far in 2010 and it would not surprise me if he was to win yet another race. 0.5pts E/W Sir Nod @ 9/1 (VC Bet - BOG) 16:00 Catterick Classic Contours had a decent enough 2009 where he notched up 2 wins (off marks of 60 and 66) and 2 places. He was also tried over hurdles where he managed 2 places from 2 runs. Runs over 12 furlongs today which seems to be his best trip having won twice over it and placing over it twice off a mark of 70. His two other runs over the distance have resulted in unplaced efforts with the latest coming over course and distance last month. It seems as if he needs a couple of runs to get rid of any cobwebs and after a 3rd placed effort over hurdles LTO he should strip fitter for todays run. 6lbs lower than his first run of the season and is now 1lb lower than his last winning mark, add on the fact that Ian Brennan takes off 5lbs which means he should be well weighted to run a decent race. He did have a 7lb claimer on board for both his wins but due to Ian Brennans claim he is still off a similar mark (would technically be 1lb higher) so I believe he will be competitive today. All his best form comes in quick conditions so todays GF ground will be ideal for him. 0.5pts E/W Classic Contours @ 11/1 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 16:30 Catterick Rio Cabolo should have a good chance in this race if reproducing his form at Carlisle over this distance when James Sullivan was on board last month. He was a close 2nd off this mark and had every chance in the final furlong but was held by the eventual winner who had first run on him. He was 6th over this distance at Chester LTO but Silvestre De Sousa was on board so he would not have had the 5lb claim. Ran a solid enough race in 6th place where he got a bit outpaced but still finished under 2 lengths off the winner. His last run over course and distance came last month off a mark of 72, he was keen early on and was well beaten that day so if he settles better today I feel he should have a great chance of coming off the pace and landing this race. He has won here over 6 furlongs previously, acts on the ground and is only 2lbs higher than his last winning mark but the 5lb claim obviously eases the weight which should make him competitive. 1pt E/W Rio Cabolo @ 5/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread Poor day at Catterick today, not really sure what happened with Rio Cabolo, bit of money came for it and was around 5/2 in running but when listening to the race it just never seemed to get a mention. Classic Contours never really got involved either and Sir Nod did cling on to a place so a little bit of a return from that.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2010 Flat Thread 17:00 Haydock Lady Eclair has been in fantastic form in 2010 in what is her first year on the racecourse. The four year old has had 8 runs, from the 8 she has won 4 and placed twice. She has won over 12, 13, 14 and 16 furlongs but it seems as if today's trip of 1m6f is definately her ideal trip. She entered handicaps off a mark of 68 and has really made a mockery of that and is now rated 85 and I believe she is still ahead of the handicapper. Won off a mark of 78 LTO over 2 miles and it seemed as if she didn't really stay the trip despite winning as she was over 3 lengths clear leading into the final furlong only for the 2nd place to get back within a length of her at the line. Raised 6lbs for that but the drop back down in trip is sure to suit and I feel she will rack up her 5th win of the year. 1pt win Lady Eclair @ 11/4 (VC Bet - BOG)