Dave's Bets 2010

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 245Sal Lokantanks 0.5pt ew 5/1 bog bet365 530Sal Strathcal 1pt win 7/2 bog betfred, stan james 600sal Bold Tie 0.5pt ew 9/1 bog betfred, vc, paddypower Lokantanks improved lto having been dropped 7lb, 2nd by 1/2L and is better off with all of these except Admin than would be in a handicap. Fallon booked and Haynes 5/18 in the last 14 days. Strathcal rates 5lb better than any of these on run lto which was a bit better than the bare form as short of room at one point. Bold Tie only 5 career runs since debut in 2008 but made a very pleasing return 2 runs ago over this trip after a year off. Not suprisingly poor lto over unsuitable 5f and this stiff 6f is ideal. Some reservations about the jok but if wins this Hannon can bring him out again without a penalty. RESULTS UPDATE Since last update there have been 16 bets with returns from only 4 races- Ishraaqaat ew 3rd 9/1; Be A Devil ew 3rd 12/1; Grand Slam Hero wn 2/1 and Vanilla Rum wn 4/1. Stakes 16pts, returns 10.6 pts for a loss of 5.4pts. Dissapointing but 4 win bets came second and still a profit of over 20% on turnover for the year. bets 99 wins 34 S/R 34.3% stakes 98pts profit 20.644pts ROI(yield) 20.8%

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 820Hay Saharia 0.5pt ew 9/2 bog betfred, hills, coral 850Hay Arrivederla 0.5pt ew 17/2 bog vc Sorry for late post but been out all day. Saharia won on second and final start as a 2yo in December and should have won on seasonal and hcp debut lto-the run was better than the bare form! Drying ground will help as uncertain about ability to handle ease. Arrivederla won 2 of 4 runs as a 3yo ran well over 7f on seasonal debut lto when not over punished and eased at the finish into 6th but only 2L off the winner in a race which was the fastest time on the card. ready to win at 7f but the step up to 8f tonight should be even better.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 350sand Wasmi 0.5pt ew 25/1 bog vc, paddypower Sorry short of time, was waiting to see going not too easy-Reasons for selection as per my BBOTD post!

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 640kemp derecho .4pt ew 20/1 bog lads, hills, fred bet365; medici palace 10/1 bet365,tote 0.2pt win Both made notable debuts in same race but medici went wonky lto but had a saver on in hope sorted out problem. Derecho should never have been stepped back to 7f lto as bred for mid distance as by Monsun whose 3yo progeny have 17% strike rate at 10f+ but only 1 other runner at 7f! Expect a bidg improvement over 10f tonight.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 810nmkt Man Of Action 1pt wn 7/4 sky Made a good debut at 2 and returned after a break of over 200 days to win a decent newmarket maiden easily. The 2nd came out and won nto. The speed figure for that run is better than any of the more exposed rest of this field have ever put up

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 840mnkt Centurio1pt win 15/8 bog bet365 In my notebook from last season folloeing 2 good runs in maidens and on that 2yo form rates better than those that have run. I made a note it wanted a step up to mid distances and so should be even better for this extra 2f. There may be one or two decent debutants in here but assuming Centurio has trained on it will take a good one to beat it.

[gord]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 great call dave well done

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 Thanks gord. There are likely to be a couple of bets on Sunday but had a bit of time to spare so just done a results update to the end of the week- RESULTS UPDATE Since the last update there have been 9 bets with 4 showing a profit-Strathcall won at 7/2 less 15p deduction; Bold Tie was placed at 9/1; Man Of Action won advised at 7/4 and Centurio won advised at 15/8 bog with an sp of 5/2. Stakes 9pts returns 11.65pts, profit 2.65pts. It's nearly 6 months since the thread commenced and I am happy with a profit from over 100 selections of over 20% on turnover. bets 108 wins 38 S/R 35.2% stakes 107pts profit 23.29pts ROI(yield) 21.8% Wins and % strike rate include ew bets where the returns exceed the total staked.

[bowles10]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 nice profit coming along there Dave, keep it up :ok

[fintron]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 good figures Dave, nice double on Friday night too :clap

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 310Pont Luc Jordan 0.7pt win 2/1 bog Ladbrokes, Hills Changing The Guard 0.3pt win 9/2 bog Ladbrokes 450Her Viper 1pt win 11/4 bog bet365, vc,paddypower,stanjames 510Pont We'll Deal Again 1pt win 3/1 bog bet365, betfred, vc, paddypower, stanjames, ladbrokes, hills Thanks Bowles and Wayne. If I can achieve anything approaching what you two have I would be over the moon! Luc Jordan and Changing The Guard are two I have been watching since last season, both have needed 2 or 3 runs this season but I believe they are ready to strike-pity they are in the same race. Viper with decent flat and hurdles form only had one run in a 2m chase before moving to Doctor Newland, well known for improving horses especially over the bigger obstacles. He immediately stepped it up to 2m4f and it ran and jumped well for 2nd but Viper got 2m on the flat and todays 3m1.5f is what it needs over chases. The doctor has had 2 wins and 3 places from 7 runners in the last 2 weeks. We'll Deal Again has been running over the wrong trip, 5 and 6f on flat tracks, it really needs 7f but todays 6f at Ponty with the very stiff uphill finish should suffice. The run lto, 2nd by 1.5l over 5f at newcastle was notable as far too easy a trip. The 5lb claimer is making a name for himself with 3 wins in the last week.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 PRICE UPDATE Sorry I' a slow typist and the prices have changed since I started the above post. The 9/2 has gone on Changing the Guard and so we will take the generally available 4/1 There is a non runner in the 510 which is a 10p deduction but for the thread will take the current 5/2 for record purposes. I got on at the prices originally quoted but I need to learn to type quicker!

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 620newb Aegean King 1pt win 9/2 bog hills. Two 2nds and a 3rd on Sunday-Viper looked all over the winner till tiring final furlong and if the claimer on We'll Deal Again had been a couple of lengths closer at the bottom of the Ponty hill it would have won. Aegean King ran in four 5f mdns last season and stepped up to 8.5f for seasonal and hcp debut lto put in a much improved performance but was one paced in the finish. This further step up to 11f is what it needs and the rapidly improving claimer gets 5lb in this apprentice race. Wigham who is in hot form can therefore run again without a penalty for about 12 days if winning today.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 200gdwd Zero Money 0.5pt ew 8/1 bog stanjames 440warwk Sidney Melbourne 0.5pt ew 20/1 bog hills 740leic Chincoteague 1pt win 5/1 bog hills, paddypower 810leic Maid In Heaven 1pt win 2/1 bog generally Zero Money 4yo from late maturing family; good 2nd on seasonal debut penultimate race; forget lto as poor draw Doncaster; return to 7f a positive. Sidney Melbourne Won on third and final run last season (on poly). Poor on seasonal/hcp debut lto over 8f at Newmarket but running style and breeding says this 10f is the trip it wants. Fallon booked. Chincoteague I remain convinced this is a decent horse and will improve with maturity; something plainly wrong on hcp debut lto so forget that run. Maid In Heaven is a progressive filly and although up 7lb for CD win lto it was a decent race and the 2nd & 4th won since. I am away for the weekend but will post if I can get an internet connection.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 RESULTS UPDATE Will do the weeks update now as away for the weekend and I will struggle to find time to post selections. If there is anything significant I may ask someone to post for me. 4 losers earlier in the week was amply compensated for by 9/1 and 9/4 winners, prices better at sp, from 4 bets today. 8pts staked on the week with 9.65pts returned for a profit of 1.65pts. The other 2 bets today lost by a nose at 4/1 and the ew 20/1 shot was 4th! bets 116 wins 40 S/R 34.5% stakes 115pts profit 24.94 pts ROI(yield) 21.7%

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 245Ham Crimea 1pt win 13/8 bog vc 730Thsk Fantastic Strike 1pt win 8/1 vc, bet365 830Thsk Ingleby King 1pt win 5/1 vc, hills, stanjames (after No 2 NR) Crimea had 2 wins from 4 runs last year for Johnston. Moved to Nichols where needed run fto and has improved for each of three runs this season. Dropped to a claimer but yard have put him in at the top price of £20K so I dont think they want to lose this 4yo who can improve further in the second half of the season. Fantastic Strike is in my notebook from 09 when had 4 runs as a 2yo; not seen since September when stepped up to this trip for hcp debut. Will be better for a further step up in due course but his 2nd in a fast time 6f mdn in August suggests he will have the speed for this. Ingleby King a 4yo who belatedly made the track in May with a promising debut and completed the 3 runs for a mark in under 4 weeks. Will also improve for another furlong or two soon but cant let him go unbacked today on hcp bow.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 RESULTS FOR HALF YEAR-1ST JAN TO 30 JUNE 2010 As I started the thread at the begining of the year just wanted to put the results up for the 6 months so I can look back at the year end to see if I have improved in the second half. Happy with a 22% profit although really would like to put up more bets but without any reduction in the strike rate or profit. Well that is the target I have set myself for the next 6 months. bets 118 wins 41 S/R 34.5% stakes 117pts profit 25.815pts ROI(yield) 22%

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 310Yarm Medici Palace 1pt win 7/2 bet365, tote, paddypower, ladbrokes Went in my notebook on debut; nothing startling in two subsequent runs but makes handicap debut off attractive mark for Cheveley Park/Fanshawe who also bred/trained the dam and she won 2 over 8f at 3 and was rated 96. would have preferred 8f not 7 but the visor first time will sharpen her up.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 725bev We'll Deal Again 0.5pt ew 8/1 bog paddypower, stanjames. A tricky hcp but I put up the selection lto over 6f at Ponty in the hope the steep uphill finish would be a sufficient test but ran off the pace, stayed on strongly gaining all the time for a close 2nd. My notes from last year say crying out for 8f yet has run 4 times this season over 5/6f and todays 7.5f up the Beverley hill should be ideal

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 210Bev Cathcart Castle 1pt win 6/4 bog coral 310Snd Mawatheeq 1pt win 6/1 bog generally 340Snd Decorative 1 pt win 6/4 bog ladbrokes, bet365 450Snd Kakatosi .5pt win 3/1 bog vc, ladbrokes, Eton Forever .5pt win 11/4 bog generally Cathcart Castle rates 6lb better than any that have run on either of its 2 runs to date and doubt if a newcomer can beat it. Mawatheeq has been in my notebook since last year; a progressive horse who has won 2 on the bounce after its seasonal debut in both previous seasons; still relatively unexposed after only 9 career runs. Decorative is a class horse who is likely to progress to group races nto A pity Kakatosi and Eton Forever meet as they are both unexposed horses with more to come and I would be suprised if one doesn't win.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 410Ayr I have two of interest in this race but the staking is weather dependent and with heavy rain due will hold off till later. If it remains good Blazing Desert is of serious interest but if there is ease Hunters Belt will be the main bet. May end splitting the stakes.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 410Ayr Hunters Belt 0.6pt 10/3 sportingbet. Blazing Desert 0.4pt 9/2 bog bet365. The rain has changed to the slow side of good with little more expected according to the clerk of the course so it should suit both selections. Both are unexposed-Hunters Belt was 2nd to the improving tropical bachelor lto and with the extra furlong no problem. Blazing Desert who won a hurdle over 23f has had 3 runs in a month to get a turf mark and over plainly the wrong trip lto finishing perhaps closer than desirable when 3rd over 10f. Todays 13f should be ideal as long as there isn't a lot more rain.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 345Nmkt Baransky 0.5pt ew 16/1 bog generally Not the sort of race I would usually bet in but this horse needed the run badly on debut but still ran well with a speed figure only 4 lb behind Bowermaster, Godolphins other runner which is the fav. Will have come on alot for the run and although there will be good horses lurking here it's worth an ew at a big price.