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Golf: European Tour 2010 - HSBC Champions

RussP

By RussP
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Cosmetic Bob

Cosmetic Bob

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Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Malaysia Open 4-7 Mar KJ Choi 4/1 bluesq KJ Choi is a multiple winner on pga tour so is fully capable of winning unlike a few of the other guys in contention that i've never heard of. Also won in Asia late last year so likes playing on the continent, he must have fancied his chances here this week becuase he usually doesnt bother teeing it up on the european tour, mainly plays in pga tour events. [url=http://photos-b.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc1/hs275.snc1/10228_1202910625914_1023056457_30652516_833941_n.jpg]

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hornet_18

hornet_18

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Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Open de Andalucia 25-28 Mar Just had a look at the Open de Andalucia and while I dont like speculating on courses players I - and the players - dont know, I feel there are a couple of players who stand out at the odds on offer. Pablo Martin @ 67 ew By all accounts Pablo Martin is the flavour of the week. He is being written about everywhere. He is already a winner this season and has won previously on the E-Tour in a similar climate to here, in Portugal. So as a 23yr old with 2 wins, more than Alex Noren or Rory McIlroy (two much more heralded youngsters), he can definitely do the business. His Father died recently which is no doubt a factor in his drop of form, however, coming back to the course he played on growing up so will know the nuiances of the place better than anyone. An emotional win could be in order and while I've missed some much juicier odds in contemplation, I'm surprised 66s are still around. Gregory Bourdy @ 46 ew Bourdy is another guy who isnt particularly fashionable, however, he is still only 27 and has 3 European Tour wins and a Sunshine Tour win so is definitely not a player to dismiss in any situation. What I do particularly like here, however, is the fact that by all accounts there will be birdies this week - and his three wins have come on courses where the birdies are free flowing (winning scores of -12,-18 and -19) with 1 win in Spain and 1 win in Portugal; add in 5 other top 8s in Iberia over the last 3 years. His current form is far from poor as well with 3 top 15s so far this year including a top 10 during the desert swing. His T34 last time out in Morocco will hopefully have shaken off the rust (having not played in 6 weeks) ready for this week. For a guy who beat a field including Poulter, McIlroy, Westwood - and many more quality players - under 6 months ago, and with his form in this part of the world, the price being offered in this field has to be taken. GL:hope

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bigstumur

bigstumur

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Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Open de Andalucia 25-28 Mar I have backed three players after round 1,the reason I waited is that this course has not been used for the Etour so wanted to see the layout first. I have backed three players. Richard Finch@ 120/1 -7 Gonzalo Fernandez Castano @48/1 -6 Gareth Maybin @ 130/1 -3 At the cut two real contenders with Maybin needing a big move on moving day. Richard Finch admitted today that he wasn,t happy with the way he struck the ball so a bit of work at the range to better his 65. Castano gets more value out of golf than me,soldier golf all day left right left right left right,and his putting well less said the better,but the plus side is he is a proven winner which might be invaluable if hunting down the young guns OOsthuizen&Hutsby on Sunday. Best of luck!

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hornet_18

hornet_18

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Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Open de Andalucia 25-28 Mar This is going to seem absolutely bizarre that I'm even looking at this event but I think I've found one bet which seems very good to me. When looking at the event last year, you can see the important stat. Putting. While it doesnt say on the stats available, with only 8 players under par for the week, I assume scrambling is also important. It's a short par 71 and Goya won with some atrocious stats - 49th in accuracy, 55th in distance, 47th in GIR but the lowest number of putts. The top four were all in top 7 for putting, but none were in the top 35 for GIR so that's how I've looked at this tournament. The one player who definitely fits the bill of a great putter, good scrambler and on form is James Morrison @ 51 (StanJames). The singer-turned-golfer has played well this year making 3 out of 5 cuts in slightly stronger fields than this including a T6 last week which included a 63 and a 65 showing he's playing well despite a 10 week break before the tournament. While he missed that cut, he did also finished T4 2 tournaments before (although it was 11weeks ago so pretty irrelevant!). He is 20th in putts/gir, 4th in putts/round and 32nd in scrambling. Perfect game and form for this tournament and away from the big boys the perfect chance to get a rookie victory. GL:hope

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hornet_18

hornet_18

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Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Open de Andalucia 25-28 Mar

The one player who definitely fits the bill of a great putter' date=' good scrambler and on form is [b']James Morrison @ 51 (StanJames).
:nana Holds off a last day challenge to win by 1 :clap Who says the world only cares about The Masters?! Hopefully the Masters boys can make it a better weekend than it already is! Onwards and upwards to next week :ok
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hornet_18

hornet_18

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Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Open de Andalucia 25-28 Mar After a fantastic (yet understated!) win last week, I'm just going to be going with the local(ish) challenge this week on the Volvo China Open. There is no course form to speak of so it'll be all about comfort, familiarity and form. These arent original picks but I think they have a good chance of fighting it out at the top. The field is pretty average and most of the front runners (Stenson, McDowell and Wilson) have been uninspiring in recent weeks while Jaidee withdrew from the Masters with injury so I'd leave him well alone. YE Yang @ 15 outright Bet365 Before winning his first major last year, Yang was only really known for beating Tiger in China so coming back to China no doubt brings back positive memories with it. Theres no doubt he can eye up a course in quick time (he had never played the PGA Champ course before his win or the Phoenix Open course before his 3rd earlier in the year). I feel the fact that he didnt truly contend at the Masters should leave him feeling satisfied and confident, while not too disappointed (unlike Poulter or Westwood) as finishing 8th is obviously a fantastic showing. With his obvious form, ability to finish tournaments off and links with China, I'm more than happy to take the outright only at 14s. Liang Wen-Chong @ 34 ew Ladbrokes Local hope Liang Wen-Chong will no doubt be holding home hopes by himself and why that may seem difficult (see the struggles of the Chinese hurdler at the Beijing Olympics to see what can happen!) he seems to deal with it pretty well as shown by his recent record in China. In last 4 "home" events this includes an 11th at the UBS Hong Kong Open where he was tied for the lead after two rounds, a T40 in the WGC event and also, 2 wins in less challenging fields on the Aus/NZ Tour and the One Asia Tour. The last victory actually only came last time out two weeks ago so clearly his form shouldnt be a problem and he has made his last 14 cuts so he is playing consistently well. What also impressed me is that when he won 2weeks ago, he had to birdie the final hole to get in to a playoff and kept his nerve in front of an expectant home crowd. He is a man who claims most of his best results in Asia with his sole win in Singapore and his Asian Tour win (obviously) in Asia! He also has 13 wins in China (including last time out) and clearly plays up to the occasion. With a relatively weak field, hopefully Liang can live up to the home hopes. Thomas Bjorn @ 67 ew StanJames Thomas Bjorn actually has less obvious links to China, however, in 2005, in the 5 tournaments that were played in China on the European Tour he finished in the top 5 of all of them including 1 win. Not too bad and should hopefully bring back some positive memories. His career has been a bit of a struggle recently but, despite missing the cut last time out, his form has been much better recently with 4 top 20s a missed cut in his last 5 tournaments including two top 15s in much higher quality fields in the desert swing. With this being a new course he wont have a disadvantage with his lack of knowledge, however, it's actually a links style course which should suit his game as he is obviously the class links player in this field having twice finished runner up at the Open. At this price he is a must bet for me to get his first win since 2006. GL:hope

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thegreatdom

thegreatdom

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Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Volvo China Open 15-18 April Hi hornet How u doing? you seem to know abit about your golf. Yesterday i checked the players out and the rices that were available and didnt even see 'Thongchai Jaidee' he is now a clear favourite do you know anything about him? has there been alot of money put on him or something?

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hornet_18

hornet_18

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Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Volvo China Open 15-18 April

Hi hornet How u doing? you seem to know abit about your golf. Yesterday i checked the players out and the rices that were available and didnt even see 'Thongchai Jaidee' he is now a clear favourite do you know anything about him? has there been alot of money put on him or something?
Dom, I mentioned him in my post above - I think he was 3rd favourite but he pulled out of the Masters last week in the second round so I didnt feel he could be touched with that uncertainty. He is a multiple winner in Asia but has also thrown away a couple of winning opportunities already this year. A couple clear of the other favourites after 1 round is nice but there's still a lot of golf to be played. While a deserved favourite at the moment, with the 3/1 or 10/3 on offer it seems a bit short to me. GL:hope
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Jenspm

Jenspm

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Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Open de Andalucia 25-28 Mar

Home by 2 shots even allowing himself a bogey at the last with no problems :clap Will keeping my eye on Yang in the future, quality player who can challenge with the best of them. :nana
Awesome stuff mate! :clap
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hornet_18

hornet_18

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Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Volvo China Open 15-18 April Thanks for all the support guys, hopefully this week will bring more success :cheers The field assembled here is pretty useful with Ernie Els and Anthony Kim the deserved market leaders. Both players have top 5 finishes here and Anthony Kim will be especially motivated in the birth country of his parents, however, I feel there are a few others who deserve some attention. This course has only been used for the last two years, the first year winning scored was -24, in contrast last year the winning score was -4 so I'm willing to look in to some more generic factors in looking for the value here. YE Yang @ 13 outright Bet365 I dont feel I can lose faith with Yang now despite how tired he must be feeling (and the fact that he said on Twitter he is stuck on the mainland due to fog - I highly doubt it's Icelandic Volcanic Smog though!!). This is a home game for Yang who was born on Jeju Island and he has already publicly stated he wants to win this as a wedding present for his sister who is getting married this week. Surely with that kind of motivation it's hard to say no?! He is playing well (a win last week and a 8th at the Masters the week before show that) and has the suitable motivation. He has played here once before playing solidly but he is a different player now having won a Major, contended at another, won another PGA Event and won last week. The only problem could be that he'll run out of steam but hopefully the hometown adrenalin will keep him going and after the win he gave me last week, it'd be rude to say no!! Johan Edfors @ 46 ew Bet365 Edfors is a confusing one. He won 3 times on tour a few years ago and looked like the next big thing but really hasnt lived up to expectations; however, his game has picked up recently with two top7s in his last 3 tournaments and these odds look more than fair. His play last week was very solid and he finished 5th here on this course so should feel comfortable enough in decent form. He generally plays well in Asia, as shown by his win in China in 2006 and win in Thailand last year to break a 3year duck so at these odds shouldnt be ignored. Mikko Ilonen @ 51 ew Bet365 Ilonen is another player who has been on a hot streak lately - two top 4s in his last 3 starts is decent reading for a player who just a couple of years ago won twice in a European Tour calendar (including one of those in Indonesia). He has played well on this course in the past having finished in the top 25 both times the tournament has been played here. On good form and with good course form (in very contrasting years here), he is definitely worth a play at these odds. Kim Kyung-Tae @ 126 ew Bet365 First Round Leader @ 101 Bet365 Top 10 @ 11 Bet365 (CHECK THE NAME. THERE IS A KIM HYUNG-TAE ON OFFER ALSO!!) OK, now for this kid I've actually gone for a multitude of bets. At 24, he is clearly a late bloomer in Asian terms (compare to Ryo, Noh etc) but he has some talent. He is 125s at Bet365 but as short as 50s in other places so I thought I'd snap him up quick. Has only ever won once in his short career (in S Korea in 2007) but his record recently is superb. He plays most of his golf in Japan and in his last 11 tournaments on the Japanese Tour he has 7 top 10 finishes (as well as an 11th and a 14th) including a 4th place last week showing he can clearly play and is playing well at the moment. This run did however include 4 runner ups so I'm not convinced he has the real fortitude to win which is why I have taken the top 10 bet @ 10s which I feel is a decent bet. It may seem strange that I'm looking at First Round Leader at half the odds of him actually winning the tournament but this shows two things - 1, he shouldnt be 125/1 to win and (more importantly) 2, he is very much a fast starter. In his 31 starts on the Japanese Tour he has ended the first round as leader no less than 6 times - 1 lead every 5.2 tournaments. An absolutely incredible record which was actually backed up by his play here last year (opened with a 69 and follwed up with a 79 so clearly likes his first rounds!). At 100/1 - despite the small stakes being taken - it's a must bet. His form here is solid if unspectacular, he made the cut in 2008 and missed the cut having opened with a 69 last year but I feel that his local knowledge, local support, along with his recent form should give him a decent shot at going well here. GL:hope

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PerryPFC

PerryPFC

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Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Volvo China Open 15-18 April

Mikko Ilonen @ 51 ew Bet365 Ilonen is another player who has been on a hot streak lately - two top 4s in his last 3 starts is decent reading for a player who just a couple of years ago won twice in a European Tour calendar (including one of those in Indonesia). He has played well on this course in the past having finished in the top 25 both times the tournament has been played here. On good form and with good course form (in very contrasting years here), he is definitely worth a play at these odds.
Was going to post this fella up myself, Having followed the last 2 european events quite closely I had noticed he was playing well and featuring prominently on both leaderboards. For those interested, an alternative way of backing him would be StanJames Enhanced Win only odds @ 55/1 (Best available win odds) and then back him top 6 with Stanjames @ 11/1 (Slightly less than the EW 1/4 odds, which would be 25/2 but payment is for an extra place, 6 instead of EW 5 so better value). Hornet, do you use the same system and rankings to pick European tour as you do PGA tour? i.e the same system but based on euro tour stats??
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hornet_18

hornet_18

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Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Volvo China Open 15-18 April

Hornet, do you use the same system and rankings to pick European tour as you do PGA tour? i.e the same system but based on euro tour stats??
No the E-Tour website is a nightmare. The way I bet on the European Tour is more logical than statistical! :hope they both make money!
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hornet_18

hornet_18

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Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Ballantine's Championship 22-25 April Looks like the organisers have made a bit of a balls up here due to the weather. Those who managed to finish their first round on Thursday are getting a good rest until proper tee times on Friday afternoon - those who started their first round on Friday are literally just going back to the first tee and starting again straight away. Nothing like making it a level playing field. Frustratingly 3 of my 4 guys are in that position - and you can count Yang out, the guy is having a nightmare!:wall

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hornet_18

hornet_18

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Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Ballantine's Championship 22-25 April OK, just read they've also reduced it to 54 holes and they're playing the last round on Sunday - which means that some guys will play the first 36 holes all on Friday, but some will play on 18 Thursday, some on Friday and probably some on Saturday. Bit of a mess.

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hornet_18

hornet_18

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Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Ballantine's Championship 22-25 April 3 in the top 16 but I miss with everything. Very frustrating the way they played out the tournament giving a huge advantage to some - which just happened not to be my golfers! On to next week when hopefully weather wont play a major part in whether my bets come through or not!

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hornet_18

hornet_18

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Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Ballantine's Championship 22-25 April OK, lets put last week down to a bad week at the office. But hopefully this week will fare better. I looked at Jimenez quite closely but he actually hasnt won in Spain for coming up to 7 years so I'm willing to leave him alone despite his impressive final round at the Masters and a win earlier in the year. Instead there's a couple of guys at much bigger prices than his 20/1 and possibly a decent shout at a return. Niclas Fasth @ 46 ew SportingBet Im a bit of a sucker for Fasth. He has won me money before and I rate the guy. Every time he comes in to a bit of form I hold out hope that he will show what he is capable of because, while a grinder, he has been a top player in his time and hopefully he's beginning to show it again with only 1 MC to his name this season, 2 top 10s (including last week) and another to 20. I'm tempted to leave him out solely because he played last week, however, it's his love of both Spain and his form here that forces my hand. Of his 6 wins on tour, 2 have come here in Spain with 1 other coming in Portugal in similar conditions. He played this course for the last two years; while last year he made the cut finishing 56th, it's his 10th place in 2008 that interests me - it was his only top 10 finish of 2008 showing that the course suits his game and hopefully it should bring back good memories. The fact he played in Korea last weekend is a bit of worry but he was one of the lucky ones to play 1 round on thursday, saturday and sunday - a real 4 day 3 round tournament so hopefully he should feel fresher than some of the other travellers. Ricardo Gonzalez @ 101 ew BetFred Gonzalez is always a difficult one to pick. The big hitting Argentine is no doubt talented but definitely enigmatic. He has very impressive course form here having won here the first time the course was used on tour in 2004 with a -14 total, he followed that up in 2008 with another good finish of 22nd and last year had to withdraw after a 2 under par 1st round of 70 so clearly he likes the course. He has 4 European Tour wins including one last year so can finish the job when in contention and he clearly feels at home in Spain (possibly due to the language and climate) with 2 of his 4 wins, and 2 of his runner up positions coming in Spain. His current form didnt look too hot but in his last 4 European Tour starts, he has missed two cuts, has a top 10 and a top 30; however, having done a bit of digging, it seems that he went back to Argentina and played in the same tournament where Romero won and Cabrera finished 2nd. He didnt fare to badly himself finishing 5th and having had a week off since that good finish, I'm hopeful he'll be feeling confident, refreshed, and happy to have visited family, friends and now not have to change to speak English(!) on a course where he has winning memories. GL:hope

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hornet_18

hornet_18

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Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Ballantine's Championship 22-25 April I was tempted to add both Oskar Henningsson and Jean-Francois Lucquin at very big prices but have talked myself out of them; however, I am adding one more guy. Sam Hutsby @ 71 ew StanJames Hutsby has a big future ahead of him. His amateur career was very impressive and his start to his professional career has been steady enough having made his first 4 cuts this year including a top 20 in Qatar. He has followed that up with 3 missed cuts in his last 4, however, it's not this current form which impresses me, it's his form in Spain as well as on this course. A few weeks ago, he reached Spain on the back of two disappointing missed cuts, however, he then hit a 67-63 first two rounds to be leading with Oosthuizen at the halfway point. While he couldnt keep it up, eventually finishing 12th, it shows how much he enjoys playing in Spain. It's his best performance of the season and his second best on tour; his best was an 8th last season - where? Of course in Spain at the Castello Masters where he was right in the mix with Sergio and Kaymer going in to the final round which should hopefully serve him well. He actually won the Spanish Amateur in 2006 further showing his affinity for golf in Spain; however, it's his runner up result in the 2009 Spanish Amateur which interests me most as it actually came on the golf course being used this week meaning that he doesnt come in without any experience of the course - far from it, he should hopefully have some positive memories, but hopefully this week he'll get the job done instead of finishing 2nd! GL:hope

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hornet_18

hornet_18

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Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Ballantine's Championship 22-25 April I also just saw that Hutsby came second at Q School in Spain which just further adds to his affinity for playing in the country...I'm just hoping this time he stops coming 2nd and wins!!

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ELCAKER

ELCAKER

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Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Open de Espana 29 Apr-2 May One selection at the moment for me in the Open De Espana...it comes courtesy of Bet365 and involves a 1st trnd match bet between Danny Willett and Jamie Donaldson. It is 10/11 the pair and I have to be with the Englishman. Donaldson shot 73/74 last year against Willett's 76/70 however in 2008, Donaldson put together rounds of 72/70/78/73 against Willett's 73/70/64/71. Now you could argue that in two successive years Donaldson has shot a better opening day score, however I would rather side with the man who has broken par 4 times around the course against just once by the Welshman. Put another way Donaldson is 8 over in his career here, whilst Willett is 8 under. 3pts Willet to bt Donaldson 18 hole match bet Bet365 10/11 :hope

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