Golf: European Tour 2010 - HSBC Champions

[RussP]

Ok, I'm really looking forward to the European Tour 2010. Being Ryder Cup year too, there should be plenty of thrills & spills along the way. We are already 2 events in but it all gets serious in the new year, the next tournament beginning on the 7th Jan. I'll look at keeping this to 1 thread throughout the season & just update the title for each event:ok Anyway, just wanted to start the thread with a bet in the Race To Dubai market. O.Wilson to win Race To Dubai, 1pt EW @ 66/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-2-3-4) Will he win it? Probably not but surely this price is too big to ignore, especially with the EW rewards on offer. Oliver Wilson is a golfer I admire and is a pretty solid player who finds an awful lot of greens. Very consistent, missed just 4 cuts last season and just 1 in the last 13 events of the season. Is improving year on year and I feel this could be the one where he really comes of age. Has yet to win on the Tour, despite multiple 2nd place finishes. Once he gets over the line, more will follow and he certainly needs them in this, Ryder Cup year. Currently world ranked No.39 and will look to improve that just as he has done for the last 4/5 years. On the European Tour, he has finished 97-71-30-11-7 in the past 5 seasons, showing steady improvement. His 7th place last year saw him achieve winnings of over €2M, just €500K off 4th place - a win would change that this season. Interesting too that, of the Top 10 in the race in 2009, he was the only one whose position wasn't boosted by a win; each of the other 9 scored at least 1 victory during the season. Of the 6 that finished in front of him, they are all trading at 16/1 or less in this market for 2010 so, at over 4 times the price of his main rivals, Wilson looks to be the stand out EW value.

[bowles10]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 i'll be in for some golf betting this year Russ. :ok Will probably be looking for McIlroy & Ross Fisher to win some events this year if they are to progress as well as they did last year.

[kevshat]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 Were you bored tonight by any chance mate :unsure :lol. Could be a useful tool though :ok

[RussP]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010

Were you bored tonight by any chance mate :unsure :lol. Could be a useful tool though :ok

Yes mate....very:lol. A few more useless titbits to come;)

[bowles10]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010

i'll be in for some golf betting this year Russ. :ok Will probably be looking for McIlroy & Ross Fisher to win some events this year if they are to progress as well as they did last year.

Russ, for my own personal benefit, i will be following a team of golfers next year with a view to making a profit at each event i back in. The team will be made up of possibly 5 golfers, 2 top names (Fisher & Mcilroy will be high on my list at the moment) plus 2 players who have won on the tour in the last 2 years & 1 outsider who perhaps is capable of a big event every so often. The 2 main players are Fisher & Mcilroy who will also both be challenging at the Majors & Worldwide tournaments as well. Fishers stats (European tour)

Category	2009	2008	2007	2006
Stroke Average	70.89	71.34	71.5	71.7
Driving Accuracy (%)	59.88	63.35	60.75	60.22
Driving Distance (yards)	292.69	290.79	296.96	300.65
Greens in Regulation (%)	72.22	69.03	67.41	69.12
Average Putts Per Round	29.87	29.84	30.28	30.29
Putts Per GIR	1.79	1.8	1.83	1.82
Sand Saves (% / Total save attempts)	52.5 / 40	50 / 82	43.48 / 69	50 / 96

Mcilroys stats (European tour)

Category	2009	2008	2007
Stroke Average	69.51	71.27	71.29
Driving Accuracy (%)	62.96	56.78	63.37
Driving Distance (yards)	301.38	295.29	285.63
Greens in Regulation (%)	78.14	68.9	77.78
Average Putts Per Round	30.05	30.06	30.58
Putts Per GIR	1.76	1.8	1.83
Sand Saves (% / Total save attempts)	66.18 / 68	52.29 / 109	54.55 / 11

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 Completely agree about Oli Wilson, Russ. Good, consistent player who cant seem to put a win in there. Think he's finished RU half a dozen or more times. Have taken a nibble at 67 and him to make all the cuts in the majors (was the best performer overall in the wgc events and made 3 of the 4 major cuts) @ 7.5. Too big to refuse. Have looked at two more players for the Race to Dubai - both long shots but have played well in the last year. Simon Dyson @ 81 looks overpriced given his late season form (two wins, one at the Alfred Dunhill Champs) and the fact that he finished 8th in the money list without playing Majors or performing well in his favoured Asian swing. Expect him to be up there again as he will still be focussing on the Euro Tour - unlike a couple of the front runners - and will have the added bonus of playing in the wgc events and majors due to his ranking. The other is Ross McGowan @ 101. Big talent shown by making over 1m in his last 6 events of the season including his first win and finishing second in the end of season champs. Not quite top 50 in the world ranking so hasnt yet made the cut for the majors but if he starts the season the way he finished last will have no trouble making them which will help in the earnings dept. Fully expect him to kick on and having finished 12th in the money list last year, dont see why he cant surprise a few people and take a few scalps this year. Also took Zach Johnson to win on the PGA tour this season @ 2.2. Short price but in my opinion way too big. One of the most underrated players around. Has won 5tournaments in the last 3 years, obviously the Masters - this guy is no mug and finished 4th in the money list last year. Incredibly underrated and should be more of a 1.7 shot imo. GL :hope

[RussP]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 My 2nd season long bet comes in the race to make the Ryder Cup team. I've decided against the 1/100 on McIllroy:lol and instead prefer the following. A.Noren to make European Ryder Cup 2010 Team, 4pts @ 4/1 Totesport As short as 2's elsewhere, I make this a cracking bet. Qualification is made up of the Top 4 on the World Points list, followed by the Top 5 (excluding those in the Top 4 on the World Points) on the European Points list, and then 3 captain picks. Let's assume the Top 4 on the World list are McIllroy, Westwood, Harrington & Garcia (pretty much how it looks at present with the exception of Sergio), there are still 8 places up for grabs. Casey, Poulter, Fisher & Stenson would probably be the shortlist for the captain picks so it's down to the Top 5 in European Points list. Alexander is in a great position for this, currently lying 3rd excluding those above. The 2 above him are beatable, Dyson & McGowan, so I just can't see where this price comes from. Monty has already spoken very highly of this kid so will be keen to see him progress and make the team, and he looks well positioned. Struggled with injury in the first half of the year but, as soon as he got over that, he was firing on all cylinders. Moved up to world number 54 as a result of some strong finishes; in the last 10 tournaments, he won the European Masters, had Top 10's in the KLM Open, Madrid Masters, Portugal Masters & Dubai WC, and in the other 5 events he finished 19-21-23-56-80. That's pretty impressive by anyones standards. In those 39 rounds of golf, he finished on a total of -89. Totesport are suggesting, by their market, that there are 20 players better placed to qualify for the Ryder Cup; I just don't buy that so, at 4/1, I'm happy to take this one.

[RussP]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Africa Open 7-10 Jan The 3rd event of the tour gets underway early Thursday morning with the Africa Open. As part of the Sunshine Tour last season, it was won by Retief Goosen who this week takes his place in the SBS so is not here to defend his crown. I don't really see any value amongst the favourites although the course will suit Richard Sterne but he really needs to get his putter firing before I'll take 11/1 on him so, instead, I'm taking 2 outsiders to relatively small stakes. A.Canizares to win Africa Open, 1pt EW @ 35/1 Boylesports (1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5) With 2 European winners so far in the 2 events in South Africa, I'm hoping to continue the trend with this selection. Alejandro is still a young golfer on the up and will hope to continue that improvement this week. Seems to be hitting a bit of form; finished 2009 with his only Top 10 of the year, a 9th in the JBWere Masters and has taken that into 2010. Missed the cut by 1 shot at the Alfred Dunhill after an opening 75 including 7 dropped shots (a triple & double bogey included in that). However he followed that with a 69 and then, at the South African Open, finished 13rd after being 3rd at the halfway stage. Finished only 5 off the winner there but this course should suit more. Is driving very well at present and accuracy is key here. Was 2nd for accuracy at the South African, and 6th for putting showing he is capable of holing putts on a course when low scores are inevitable. Celebrates his 27th birthday on Day 3 of this tournament and I'll be hoping he gets the ideal present by landing the trophy a day later. M.Bothma to win Africa Open, 0.5pt EW @ 100/1 Stan James (1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5) M.Bothma to finish in the Top 10 in Africa Open, 1pt @ 10/1 Stan James Sure, Sterne and Schwartzel are probably more likely homegrown winners but, at 10 times the price, I will have a little bit on this. I don't know an awful lot about Michiel Bothma but his form so far in 2010 provides us with plenty of room for optimism. In the 2 events so far on home soil, he has finished 17-8. In the Alfred Dunhill, he had a triple & a double bogey on his card. Without them, he would have firmly established himself in the Top 10. Followed that with an 8th place at the South Africa Open, just 2 shots off the Top 5. In those events, he was the 5th highest placed South African in the first event (behind Sterne, Schwartzel, Mulroy & Van Den Berg) and the 2nd top South African last tim out (behind just Fichardt). When you consider his current form and the fact the aforementioned home players are priced much shorter than him, I think 100/1 to win and 10/1 for Top 10 is too big. Is as short at 66/1 win, 11/2 Top 10 elsewhere. Speculative? Yes, but not without a chance.

[PerryPFC]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010

My 2nd season long bet comes in the race to make the Ryder Cup team. I've decided against the 1/100 on McIllroy:lol and instead prefer the following. A.Noren to make European Ryder Cup 2010 Team, 4pts @ 4/1 Totesport As short as 2's elsewhere, I make this a cracking bet. Qualification is made up of the Top 4 on the World Points list, followed by the Top 5 (excluding those in the Top 4 on the World Points) on the European Points list, and then 3 captain picks. Let's assume the Top 4 on the World list are McIllroy, Westwood, Harrington & Garcia (pretty much how it looks at present with the exception of Sergio), there are still 8 places up for grabs. Casey, Poulter, Fisher & Stenson would probably be the shortlist for the captain picks so it's down to the Top 5 in European Points list. Alexander is in a great position for this, currently lying 3rd excluding those above. The 2 above him are beatable, Dyson & McGowan, so I just can't see where this price comes from. Monty has already spoken very highly of this kid so will be keen to see him progress and make the team, and he looks well positioned. Struggled with injury in the first half of the year but, as soon as he got over that, he was firing on all cylinders. Moved up to world number 54 as a result of some strong finishes; in the last 10 tournaments, he won the European Masters, had Top 10's in the KLM Open, Madrid Masters, Portugal Masters & Dubai WC, and in the other 5 events he finished 19-21-23-56-80. That's pretty impressive by anyones standards. In those 39 rounds of golf, he finished on a total of -89. Totesport are suggesting, by their market, that there are 20 players better placed to qualify for the Ryder Cup; I just don't buy that so, at 4/1, I'm happy to take this one.

Totesport now back to 3/1 Got 4's with Sportingbet though.

[theboybroon]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Africa Open 7-10 Jan Couldn't agree more that Oliver Wilson at 66/1 is undoubtably an excellent value ew bet, and i would also go so far as to say that this bet is more than just value, and it wouldn't really be a major surprise if he crept into a place this season. At these odds he has to be backed and i'm most certainly on with russ taking all the credit if it comes in. Can't really add to much to your write up:ok There are some nice prices going around in this market but generally we never get any real surprises/outsiders, and as its over a full season the cream usually rises to the top and that includes the e/w money. Take the last 10 years for instance and i would say that from 40 places, that there have only been two surprises imo, namely McGinlay and Jacobsen both getting placed which i think is worth noting. Boring to say but the 5 or 6 market leaders look extremely strongly to me and i fancy the final leaderboard to be very similar to last season. In saying that though there is another player i think is to big, and that is the big Spaniard Alvaro Quiros currently @ 80's with stan james. A player who i think will be a very big danger in some of the bigger tournaments this season, the 3 time euro tour winner has a big future ahead of him, and this could be the year he really makes his mark on the golfing world. However the Spaniard is the exact opposite from Oliver wilson in that he lacks any real consistency, whether that be from week to week or over 4 rounds mainly due to the fact that he hits it that long(biggest hitter on the euro tour) that he sometimes struggles with control of the golf ball. A top 4 finish will be to much for him this season i think so i won't be backing him in this market this time, but he's someone to keep an eye on and i may back him @ 11/2 to make the ryder cup team. My main pick for the race to Dubai is the somewhat forgotten Paul Casey @ 16/1. Some firms go 12's and while i'm not going to say it screams massive value,he's a player i rate as one of the best in the world and i think it's a very good price for a man of his talent. One of the reasons for this price has to be the injury problems he endured last year, missing almost half the season but on doing my research i'm more than happy his injury looks to be well behind him. Lets not forget Casey was upto No.3 in the world and still finished 5th last year having played nearly half the tournaments of those above him which is a great acheivment. No doubt his game will be pretty rusty but i would imagine most of his main competitors will be pretty much the same and with him making his seasonal bow in this weeks SBS in Hawai it should do him a lot of good and set him up nicely for the middle east at the end of the month which is when the season really starts. An absolute class act, i think Paul Casey will consolidate his position in the Worlds top 10 for years to come and from the main contenders i think he's the best value, and should hopefully get me a tidy e/w payout at the very least. Of the other main contenders i think Westwood is too short and can't be backed at 9/2. I would dearly love to see break his major duck though more than anyone else. Surely his time will come. I wouldn't put anyone off backing Mcilroy @ 7/1 which i think is more than fair and will almost guarantee a small profit at the very least. Finished second last year he would be my tip to win it this season, but i just think Casey represents more value of the two. After Mcilroy i think Kaymer is the best of the new breed in the world today and will obviously be there or thereabouts after finishing 4th last year. Pricewise i would want double figures but he's a top 5 golfer for me in a few years. Ross Fisher is nearly 12's with every bookmaker and a best price 14/1 with extrabet and you could say he has as good a chance as any. Coming 4th last year i think 14's is a fair price for the big Englishman after coming 6th previously. he should keep progressing and have another fine season, but will fatherhood affect him? Bets: Race to Dubai O.Wilson @ 66/1 e/w 1/4 (4) General P.Casey @ 16/1 e/w 1/4 (4) Betfred

[RussP]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Africa Open 7-10 Jan Nice post TBB, hope Casey gets over his injury and shows his class this season:ok Back onto the Africa Open and I'm taking 1 on the tournament match bets, which is: P.Edberg to beat F.Andersson Hed (Africa Open tournament match bet), 4pts @ 10/11 William Hill I really fancy Pelle to take this one. Surely, the price on Fredrik is too short and is only such because of a very good 4th place lto. However, previous to that, he missed the cut at the Alfred Dunhill so it's difficult to know exactly what to expect. Edberg, on the other hand, is playing some excellent golf, finishing 15th & 13th in his 2 starts so far this term. His putting has been superb, finishing 5th & 2nd in putting stats. He also ranked higher on driving accuracy lto which is important on this course. In the South African Open, Edberg actually played extremely well, recording the best score for the final 54 holes after opening with an error strewn 76. If he can get out of the blocks quickly tomorrow, I fancy another Top 20 performance this week which I'm certain will be enough to bring in this match bet.

[RussP]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Africa Open 7-10 Jan Taking just 1 in the 1st round 3-balls too: M.Lorenzo-Vera to beat R.Dinwiddie & TC Charamba (1st round 3-balls), 3pts @ 11/10 Boylesports I see this clearly as a 2 horse race, I cannot see the Zimbabwean doing much here having missed the cut in the Alfred Dunhill and then just scraping through to the weekend in South African before closing with a horrific 81. Of the other 2, I prefer the Frenchman. They are relatively closely matched but Michael comes here off the back of an excellent 8th in the Alfred Dunhill. As mentioned earlier, accuracy and putting will be key here so the fact he finished 10th in accuracy stats there and top of both the putts per rounds and putts per GIR bode well for a good showing here. Comparing their opening round scores last season, Dinwiddie broke 71 on 7 of his 28 starts, against Lorenzo-Vera's 10 in 27 starts. With the assured fitness and the fact his putter looked hot lto, I'm taking Lorenzo-Vera at a shade of odds against to get us off to a flyer.

[bigstumur]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Africa Open 7-10 Jan RussP Some real interesting stuff you have posted,I like Olly Wilson as a Player and rate him highly but i think the Race2Dubai is possibly up the Ladder a bit for him.I do expect him to win this season however the Calibre of event would dictate how far it propels him up the board. My own personal selection is Martin Kaymer@7/1 with Betfair,he was in with an outside squeak on the final day but Westwood played the best golf I have ever seen him play,and never troubled the leaderboard.Earlier in the season as you probably know,Kaymer got a bad foot injury faffing about on Gokarts in Arizona,"I am sure his Management were pleased NOT"! If it was not for this lay off "about 6 tournaments or so" he could easily have ran Westwood close and maybe even won it. I think Westwood has a great chance again albeit at short odds 9/2 or so.He hates America so the Europeantour is his base,this cannot be said of Mcilroy who will see more airmiles than the England Cricket Teams Jockstraps. I might be eating Humble Pie at the end of the season,but Mcilroy struggled turning Pro with the travelling,so playing the PGA&Europe is going to be a challenge for him. At half decent odds I would be happy to lay him to lose. Now Alexander Noren for the Ryder Cup? This guy has everything to go all the way and done well to get his first win,he also has a good caddy in Colin Byrne "ex caddy of Goosen" but I watch a lot of golf and notice that he struggles badly at the business end of Tournaments with nerves,but the win should help with this. I have not studied the betting but will post with my pick soon. AFRICA OPEN SCHWARTZEL@8/1 MAGNUS A CARLLSON@15/1 Top 10 Finish. Good luck all!

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Africa Open 7-10 Jan Put these bets on on Monday eve but only just got round to putting them up on here! This is a very poor field - they call it a European/Sunshine Tour event but this is no better than a Sunshine Tour event and thus some Sunshine Tour players are out of line in the prices without any real justification for it. Just three top 10s bets for me (a couple kind of out of left field) as the top few in the market will probably take this event but without the value I'm looking for. These three guys all played the event last year and performed well. Ulrich van den Berg Top 10 @ 9 Not only did he finish T9 last year at this course but this is his home course so the local knowledge will stand him in a decent way as well as giving him both home support and a little bit more incentive to perform well. His recent form is also better than it was last year - last year his form coming into the event was mc-mc-t65, this year it stands at t11-t12-t61 and he led the Alfred Dunhill after the first round a few weeks ago. He actually hasnt bettered his result of a year ago all season but that shows his comfort on the course and the fact that he has finished top 12 in 2 of his last 3 events shows he is playing decent golf. Paulo Pinto Top 10 @ 11 The little known Argentine is little known because he's never really done anything(!), however, his form on the Tour de las Americas has been very good and he finished 2nd in his last event there as well as finishing in the top 5 on their money list. He had two T7s at the end of the year on the Canadian Tour which for me shows in good versatility on international tours. Last year he finished T28 here but a couple of bad holes really ruined his chances of finishing closer to the top 10. He still hits the odd double bogey but as a player who, while not winning at a decentstandard, can no doubt finish in the top 10 on his current form with a knowledge of the course. Mark Murless Top 10 @ 23 Last year murless came into this event on the back of two missed cuts and finished 7th...this year he comes in to the same event in the same form but why is he 300/1 to win (a 4time winner on the sunshine tour) and 22/1 for a top 10? He finished 2nd in his last low profile sunshine tour event (end of november) showing that he isnt playing too badly despite his consecutive missed cuts. Price is way too big but wouldnt put the house on him! GL :hope

[kevshat]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Africa Open 7-10 Jan

Nice post TBB, hope Casey gets over his injury and shows his class this season:ok Back onto the Africa Open and I'm taking 1 on the tournament match bets, which is: P.Edberg to beat F.Andersson Hed (Africa Open tournament match bet), 4pts @ 10/11 William Hill I really fancy Pelle to take this one. Surely, the price on Fredrik is too short and is only such because of a very good 4th place lto. However, previous to that, he missed the cut at the Alfred Dunhill so it's difficult to know exactly what to expect. Edberg, on the other hand, is playing some excellent golf, finishing 15th & 13th in his 2 starts so far this term. His putting has been superb, finishing 5th & 2nd in putting stats. He also ranked higher on driving accuracy lto which is important on this course. In the South African Open, Edberg actually played extremely well, recording the best score for the final 54 holes after opening with an error strewn 76. If he can get out of the blocks quickly tomorrow, I fancy another Top 20 performance this week which I'm certain will be enough to bring in this match bet.

Like this one Russ. As you know I'm not a huge European Tour punter and I won't be in here every week but there's a guy I like in Africa this week. 0.5pts ew P.Edberg to win Africa Open 40/1 Bet365 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) 2pts P.Edberg Top Scandinavian Player 7/2 Bet365 As Russ says above, Pelle Edberg has had a cracking start to the season and he's putting like a dream. That's the stat I look for the most because it doesn't matter how well you get it to the carpet, you've still got to be able to putt. In saying that, there's nothing wrong with Edberg's driving stats. He's had a couple of top 15's on tour already this "season" and but for an opening 76 last time out there's every reason to suggest he'll have hit the winners enclosure in the South African Open. His last 3 rounds in that tournament confirms he's in excellent nick and in a fairly weak field this week I'll take him to be right in the mix.

[kevshat]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Africa Open 7-10 Jan

Taking just 1 in the 1st round 3-balls too: M.Lorenzo-Vera to beat R.Dinwiddie & TC Charamba (1st round 3-balls), 3pts @ 11/10 Boylesports I see this clearly as a 2 horse race, I cannot see the Zimbabwean doing much here having missed the cut in the Alfred Dunhill and then just scraping through to the weekend in South African before closing with a horrific 81. Of the other 2, I prefer the Frenchman. They are relatively closely matched but Michael comes here off the back of an excellent 8th in the Alfred Dunhill. As mentioned earlier, accuracy and putting will be key here so the fact he finished 10th in accuracy stats there and top of both the putts per rounds and putts per GIR bode well for a good showing here. Comparing their opening round scores last season, Dinwiddie broke 71 on 7 of his 28 starts, against Lorenzo-Vera's 10 in 27 starts. With the assured fitness and the fact his putter looked hot lto, I'm taking Lorenzo-Vera at a shade of odds against to get us off to a flyer.

Winner by 4 shots to get the thread off to a flyer :clap:clap. Great shout mate :ok.

[theboybroon]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Africa Open 7-10 Jan Good start Russ, well done:clap

[RussP]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Africa Open 7-10 Jan Thanks guys:ok Pretty pleased with Day 1. Lorenzo-Vera wins easy for a +3.30pt profit on the day. Edberg is also looking in decent shape against Andersson-Hed, whilst the 2 outrights are in the mix too. Hope for more of the same tomorrow:hope

[bowles10]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Africa Open 7-10 Jan Richard Sterne does seem to enjoy this time of year and won at this course last season when the South Africa Open was held here. In that comp, he started with a 72 so i was a bit worried about taking an early price on him until i saw how he fared today. Finishing strongly with 3 birdies in the final 4 holes, he ended as co leader at -7. Last year he finished -14 so that target is achieveable here if not better. 3pts win @ 6.4 Betfair Richard Sterne if at any point, he trades as low as 2.00, i may lay off enough to regain the stake.

[RussP]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Africa Open 7-10 Jan Just the one for me tomorrow: D.Lynn to beat J.Kamte & D.McGuigan (2nd round 3-balls), 3pts @ 21/20 Boylesports I feel the Englishman has the edge as his game is suited to this course. Is not bad with the short stick, ok off the tee without hitting it too long. Today, he put in an average round of -1 leaving him in need of a decent round (probably -2 or -3) to make the cut. His putter looked good today, finished 10th on putting stats, so if he can improve slightly tee to green, a good showing is on the cards. Kamte had a really poor round and has a mountain to climb to make the cut. His putting was poor as was his driving. McGuigan is a player I know nothing about, 1300 in the world, and performed similar to Kamte. Poor off the tee and on the green, I don't see him as a player who can put in a low round. So, at the prices, I take Lynn to win this in the process of making the cut.

[RussP]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Africa Open 7-10 Jan The 3-ball lost by a horrific margin, got that one wrong, whilst Canizares played poorly and missed the cut. Puts me to -1.70pts for the tournament but still have Bothma going EW & Top 10 (currently T16), and Edberg (3 clear) to beat Andersson Hed. Kev, looking promising on Pelle;), nice price at 40's. Will have a couple of 2-balls for tomorrow, posting them up later:ok

[RussP]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Africa Open 7-10 Jan Firstly, a speculative longshot for the tournament & end of 3rd round leader. J.Van Zyl to be 3rd round leader, 0.5pts EW @ 66/1 Skybet (1/4 odds 1-2-3) J.Van Zyl to win Africa Open, 0.5pts EW @ 40/1 Totesport (1/4 odds 1-2-3-4) Absolutely stupid prices on an undoubted talent on the Sunshine Tour. Jaco had 10 Top 3 finishes on the tour in 2009 so is not alien to low rounds and high finishes. There are plenty of shots to be had on this golf course so the 5 shots he is off the lead doesn't worry me. Is half the odds of those above in places so I think there's value in this bet. Is high up on driving accuracy, greens in regulations and putts per GIR so it's clear his all round game is looking good. Current stands T9 and when you consider 3 other golfers on this score are quoted at 7/1, 7/1 and 12/1 to win the tournament, the value is evident. 12 birdies and an eagle so far this week show him to be in good nick. Each round has been spoilt by either a poor front 9 or poor back 9. His front nine on day 2 was 32, his back nine on day 1 was 31. If he can put it all together, I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit a 65 tomorrow so, at the prices, I'm happy to be on.

[RussP]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Africa Open 7-10 Jan Going with 3 2-balls, a couple at big prices for a 2 horse race: M.Tunnicliff to beat D.Clarke (3rd round 2-balls), 3pts @ 2/1 Boylesports Ok, Darren Clarke is a household name but no way is there such a big price discrepancy here. Without doubt tee to green, Miles Tunnicliff has the edge so far in this tournament but Clarke is managing to pull it back on the green. Darren is putting pretty well so far here whilst Miles is taking too many to get down, reflected in the fact the Irishman has had 6 fewer putts. However, this course is about accuracy and, with the advantage being held by the Englishman, I will take him here at decent odds. C.Coetzee to beat R.Sterne (3rd round 2-balls), 3pts @ 13/5 Boylesports Another one where the prices just don't reflect reality. If Sterne brings his A-game, there is only one winner but today just highlighted the problem with him so far this season. A great opening round where he led was followed by a round of frustration, putting him back in the chasing pack. Stats wise, they are pretty well matched but Coetzee has the edge on the green. Coetzee looked like he was capable of ripping up the course on Day 1, with 5 birdies and 2 eagles, only spoilt by 2 bogeys and a double. Is capable of shooting low so I will take the very big price on Charl to pull off a real shock. J.Sandelin to beat L.De Jager (3rd round 2-balls), 5pts @ Evs Boylesports I just can't believe the South African is so far up the leaderboard. Is tied for 9th but is ranked just 59th for accuracy and 105th for GIR. Only his very hot putter is keeping him in it, having had just 43 putts in 2 rounds. Has hit 17 GIR's against his opponents 27 so it's surely only a case of when the luck runs out. Sandelin meanwhile is playing very solid golf all round and I expect him to take this one comfortably.

[hornet_18]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Africa Open 7-10 Jan Russ, completely agree about Jaco. Hoping he doesnt win this week (sorry!) as after seeing his bold showing so far this week I was looking forward to seeing some nice odds about him for Joburg next week! GL

[kevshat]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Africa Open 7-10 Jan

Going with 3 2-balls, a couple at big prices for a 2 horse race: M.Tunnicliff to beat D.Clarke (3rd round 2-balls), 3pts @ 2/1 Boylesports Ok, Darren Clarke is a household name but no way is there such a big price discrepancy here. Without doubt tee to green, Miles Tunnicliff has the edge so far in this tournament but Clarke is managing to pull it back on the green. Darren is putting pretty well so far here whilst Miles is taking too many to get down, reflected in the fact the Irishman has had 6 fewer putts. However, this course is about accuracy and, with the advantage being held by the Englishman, I will take him here at decent odds. C.Coetzee to beat R.Sterne (3rd round 2-balls), 3pts @ 13/5 Boylesports Another one where the prices just don't reflect reality. If Sterne brings his A-game, there is only one winner but today just highlighted the problem with him so far this season. A great opening round where he led was followed by a round of frustration, putting him back in the chasing pack. Stats wise, they are pretty well matched but Coetzee has the edge on the green. Coetzee looked like he was capable of ripping up the course on Day 1, with 5 birdies and 2 eagles, only spoilt by 2 bogeys and a double. Is capable of shooting low so I will take the very big price on Charl to pull off a real shock. J.Sandelin to beat L.De Jager (3rd round 2-balls), 5pts @ Evs Boylesports I just can't believe the South African is so far up the leaderboard. Is tied for 9th but is ranked just 59th for accuracy and 105th for GIR. Only his very hot putter is keeping him in it, having had just 43 putts in 2 rounds. Has hit 17 GIR's against his opponents 27 so it's surely only a case of when the luck runs out. Sandelin meanwhile is playing very solid golf all round and I expect him to take this one comfortably.

2 out of 3 for a very solid 8.8pt profit :clap. Top stuff mate :ok

[RussP]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Africa Open 7-10 Jan Tunnicliff wins easily, and Coetzee unlucky by finishing level with Sterne. Sandelin so poor and Van Zyl made no progress at all. Not the greatest of starts to the season for me. Currently stand at -4.70pts with the following bets live for tomorrow: Edberg to beat Andersson (4pts @ 10/11)....strong favourite Bothma to win (0.5pts EW @ 100/1)....highly unlikely Bothma Top 10 (1pt @ 10/1)....low round tomorrow will put him right there Van Zyl to win (0.5pts EW @ 40/1)....no chance really

[RussP]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Africa Open 7-10 Jan

2 out of 3 for a very solid 8.8pt profit :clap. Top stuff mate :ok

Only 1 mate:sad

[kevshat]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Africa Open 7-10 Jan

Only 1 mate:sad

Grrrr, looked at the wrong Coetzee :$. :hope Edberg can stay ahead of Anderson-Hed :hope

[RussP]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Africa Open 7-10 Jan Taking 2 in the 2-balls for the final round. K.Horne to beat C.Carranzo (4th round 2-balls), 4pts @ 10/11 Bet365 I'm taking the home grown player here. Horne has played some super golf in the first 2 rounds with a pair of 67's but only managed a par round yesterday where a double bogey on the 17th didn't help his cause. The Argentinian meanwhile is going very well tee to green but is distinctly average on the carpet. That won't help on the final day where pin positions will be tricky. 6 birdies in 8 holes has helped him massively and, aside from that, his other 46 holes haven't been all that special. With Horne already showing form this season, on home soil and generally the better player, I'll take him to put in another sub par round and bring this bet in. C.Swanepoel to beat O.Bekker (4th round 2-balls), 4pts @ 21/20 Stan James 2 South African's go head to head here and I'll take the one over 600 positions better off in the world rankings to win this. Swanepoel is really getting into the groove, following an opening 71 with pair of 68's. Is putting very well and is now beginning to find lots of greens after a poor start. I like the solid way he plays his golf, has not been subject to any 'streaks' so it's easy to envisage another round of 68/69 today. Bekker, for me, is punching way above his weight and I see the pressure telling today. What has served him so well is the fact he's only had 1 bogey in 54 holes of golf. With pin positions more difficult, I can't see that continuing. Again, Swanepoel is way ahead on putting this week and that's enough for me, especially at odds against.

[PerryPFC]

Re: Golf: European Tour 2010 - Africa Open 7-10 Jan

Like this one Russ. As you know I'm not a huge European Tour punter and I won't be in here every week but there's a guy I like in Africa this week. 0.5pts ew P.Edberg to win Africa Open 40/1 Bet365 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) 2pts P.Edberg Top Scandinavian Player 7/2 Bet365 As Russ says above, Pelle Edberg has had a cracking start to the season and he's putting like a dream. That's the stat I look for the most because it doesn't matter how well you get it to the carpet, you've still got to be able to putt. In saying that, there's nothing wrong with Edberg's driving stats. He's had a couple of top 15's on tour already this "season" and but for an opening 76 last time out there's every reason to suggest he'll have hit the winners enclosure in the South African Open. His last 3 rounds in that tournament confirms he's in excellent nick and in a fairly weak field this week I'll take him to be right in the mix.

Edberg saves his first double bogey of the 72 holes until the 18th of the final round! To drop from outright 2nd to tied 8th!! :wall