Microsystems

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Microsystems 655Ling Frameit 1pt win 9/4 bog bet365, betfred, vc

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Microsystems 215Perth Ashmolian 9/4 bog betfred, hills, stanjames. Frameit, advise at 9/4 was backed into 11/10 but with a very slowly run race he pulled hard and didnt have the kick in what turned into a 2f sprint.

[chestorul]

Re: Microsystems Ashmolian run today?

[Jenno99]

Re: Microsystems Do you mean Fakenham at 2.25?

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Microsystems No bet today Sorry Chestorul, Jenno and any other readers for putting up the wrong race but the right horse in Ashmolian which got up on the line. I hope after Jenno spotted the right horse and by noting it was 9/4 you concluded which one to back. If I do this or anything similar again please send me a PM as I will have more chance of seeing this cos I dont revisit the thread as a rule until there is another bet. Sorry once again. PS for those that may be interested there are 3 interesting bets on my thread on the ATR forum (Dave's Bets) bets 63 wins 21 S/R 33.3% stakes 63pts profit 16.89pts ROI(yield) 26.8%

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Microsystems 510Ripon Kellys Eye 1pt win 5/2 bog hills, bet365, stanjames, vc, coral 635Hexam Mountskip 1pt win 2/1 bog hills 320Chepstow Last King Of Scotland-odds on no bet Just to confirm horses predicted odds on in the morning market are no bet but I put them up for information only as I appreciate some people like to bet odds on shots. I hope some of you had a look at my other thread yesterday as the 3 bets produced a 7/2 winner and a 14/1 ew advised second.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Microsystems 620southwell Morenito 1pt win 4/1 bog betfred, bet365, paddypower 325sedgfield Right Or Wrong-no bet odds on A fantastic day yesterday with all 3 selections winning although the odds on shot, which won the race in the stewards room, does not count for record purposes. Kellys Eye and Mountskip won easily both at shorter than the advised prices. bets 65 wins 23 S/R 35.3% stakes 65pts profit 21.39pts ROI(yield) 32.9%

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Microsystems 525Brighton super Yellow 1pt win 5/2 BOG generally have visitors for the next week so wont have time to post any results updates etc. will try to put any bets up as usual.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Microsystems 550Stratford Tiger O'Toole 0.5pt ew 7/1 Bog Ladbrokes

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Microsystems Tiger O'Toole-just a reminder for my results. 3 NRs at early prices deductions 10p, 15p & 15p = 40p off 7/1 advised makes 4.2/1 net (SP 9/4) 1/5 place odds.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Microsystems 255carlisle Mandalay King 0.5pt ew 9/2 bog bet365, betfred, hills (Bid For Gold NR) 450chepstow Gundaroo 0.5pt ew 6/1 bog bet365 525chepstow Plumage 0.5pt ew 6/1 bog bet365 Strangely all 3 bets come from the same micro system (a bit odd when microsystems comprises circa 20 systems!) gone ew on all cos of decent prices and a quick look at the form indicates tough races.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Microsystems No bets today. my visitors have gone out for the day so giving me a little time to update the year so far- Microsystems 5 months 1st Jan 20 31st May 2010 Microsystems was launched on 1st Jan 2010 and the results so far are- bets 71 wins 25 S/R 35.2% stakes 71pts profit 23.97pts ROI(yield) 33.8% There have been a few less bets than anticipated but the pace should pick up a little in June to September and I now expect that by the year end we will have had about 200 bets in total. I am extremely happy at a strike rate of 35%-25 winning bets out of 71 and a return on investment(ROI) of nearly 34% to advised prices and/or BOG(best odds guaranteed) if available from the selected bookies. However of the 25 winning bets, 23 won the race and only 2 were each way placed (where the place returns were greater than the total win and place stakes). The each way recommended stakes however reduced the profit as only half the stakes went on the win part of the bet. If all bets had been 1pt win only the results would read- bets 71 wins 23 S/R 32.4% stakes 71pts profit 33.38 pts ROI(yield) 47.0% I am thinking of putting all selections as 1pt win bets from now on unless there are many of you who would prefer each way. If I adopt this the records to date will not change but be as per the set of results given at the start of this post. Please let me know if you have any views on the staking. One thing I dont realy want to do is change the LSP (level state profit) approach ie 1pt per race for record purposes however I would be happy to run alongside this some sort of staking plan where the stakes increased/decreased as profits grow or fall?

[wrightyoh]

Re: Microsystems I'm sure 1 point win bets will make more money in the long run than 0.5 point each way. You could probably run it through your results and check. Keep the winners coming!

[DM99]

Re: Microsystems Straight win bets will always make more than each way bets. The tradeoff is that losing runs will be more severe as you don't have the 2nd or 3rd place cover. As for staking - it depends on how aggressive you want to be. With this kind of yield and strike rate, something like back with 2% of bank on each selection, compounded after each day would be very safe and allow the bankroll to grow faster. A constant 2% of bank means if you go 20 losers in a row you will still have 66% of the bank remaining which is plenty. Plug your results so far or your theoretical results into a spreadsheet and see how you go!

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Microsystems 4 bets today will be posted shortly

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Microsystems ALL BETS NOW 1PT WIN 220cartmel Sir Frank 3/1 bog bet365, stanjames 310notts Danzoe 5/1 bog generally (2 non rnrs 7 & 14) 620kemp Love you Louis 5/1 sky ( 1 non rnr spick n span) 920kemp Jocheski 8/1 bog hills, bet365, boyles Thanks to Wrighty and DM99 for their input. From now on all bets will be 1pt win for record purposes. I have a staking plan in mind which I am finalising and which if implemented will run alongside the lsp results. Jocheski is a bit of a strange choice as rarely runs on the flat and I am yet to be convinced that the programme accurately reflects form when crossing between codes.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Microsystems 600wetherby King Of Castle 5/4 bog bet365 715sandown Lay Claim 3/1 bog bet365, paddypower, ladbrokes, hills 3 losers and a non runner yesterday. Knew the first one to run after going win only would be second at an ew price!!!!!! Think my view on Jocheski was correct-cant exclude these from the programme but may decide to use 'executive powers' to exclude bets based principally on form from other codes. Dont think that's cheating just cant exclude them using Adrian Massey's programme.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Microsystems 415catt Priceless Art 9/1 bog bet365 655bath Picnic Party 11/1 sky AS ALL BETS ARE NOW 1PT WIN FOR RECORD PURPOSES I WILL NO LONGER STATE THE STAKE AFTER EVERY SELECTION. Priceless Art is another instance of crossover form between 2 codes-this time bumpers to flat. However Swinbank is adroit at taking bumper horses to the flat (this has good form- a win and a second from 3 17f bumpers on g/f) You may think this is worth an ew as doubt if there will be 3 maidens in this race better than it-famous last words!

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Microsystems 450Muss Antigua Sunrise 3/1 bog stanjames 525muss Amenable 9/2 sky 905Ncslte We'll deal again 6/1 bog bet365 Priceless Art was a non runner yesterday which means there have been 6 bets and 6 losers so far in June but it hardly tells the full story as 3 of the 6 were 2nd at 5/4, 13/2(sp) and 11/1. Picnic party was particularly frustrating, 11/1 ep backed in to 7/2, a front runner held up and pulled for his head and lost by a neck! the two big priced places were in races with less than 8 runners so to be fair they were not really ew bets anyway although I do admit I backed Picnic for a place at around 5/2 on betfair. lets hope for a change of luck today!

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Microsystems 500Bri Suzy Alexander 13/8 bog stanjames, bet365

[Werdnatrebor]

Re: Microsystems hi dave, just curious to know, do any of your microsystems ever throw up more than one horse to back in the same race?, what i mean is does one system say horse A is a qualifier and another system say horse B is a qualifier?, and if so what would you do? back them both if odds are viable or leave the race alone altogether?

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Microsystems 830windsor Leleyf 9/1 stanjames sorry missed this earlier. All bets are now win only of course but with 8 runners and Kinsgate Choice in the race probably best to back ew-especially the way things have gone last week or so! Werdnatrebor-thanks for your note. Nearly all systems are based on clear top rated except ones based on jumpers winning within last 5 days and handicap chasers having first run for a new yard. Would be a real rarity if there was also as bet in one of these races from another top rated system-not had one in 3 years! No doubt one will now appear and would put them both up if arises providing backable prices.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Microsystems NO BET TODAY RESULS UPDATE June has been a disaster so far with no wins from 11 bets, the worst run I have had since I started creating these systems 3 years ago. The selections are not generally running poorly just not had a our fair share of luck with 4 2nds at 13/2, 11/1, 5/4 and 3/1 and only 4 finishing outside the first 4. As a result profit is down to about 16%. June is usually a good month so lets hope it turns around soon! bets 82 wins 25 S/R 30.6% stakes 82 pts profit 12.97 pts ROI(yield) 15.8%

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Microsystems 905Ham Zaplamation 11/4 bog generally.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Microsystems THURSDAY 740 uttox Prophete DeGuye I am out most of Thursday and this looks like it is the only bet. No early prices at time of posting.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Microsystems 830Good Rule Of Nature 13/8 bog paddypower Sadly the losers are still flowing in June and we have hit one of the few potential problems mentioned when launching the thread-that of many of the sub systems producing losers at the same time. This month there are 16 systems in operation although 7, mainly NH, have not yet produced a bet. So the losers have come from 9 systems (some selections come from more than one system). 7 systems have produced 1 bet and one has had 2 2nds and a 3rd from 3 bets. Only one system with 4 losers all unplaced could be said to be on anything like a long losing run and 4 losers for any system is hardly unusual. So its not as though I can withdraw/investigate what is going wrong as there are insufficient stats to do that. All we can do is plough on and if there is no turnaround by the end of the month I will have to do a detailed reappraisal. Todays selection by the way comes from a system which has produced only one loser this month! This may just be part of the nature of the game as I have had 23 profitable years and only 2 with small losses on my personal betting out of 25 yet in all of those years I have had at least 2 or 3 losing months and there is no pattern as to which months it will be. So in the long run it should work out!

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Microsystems 630Leic Racy 9/4 bog coral

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Microsystems 315Strat Putney Bridge 5/1 bog betfred

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Microsystems 645Nab Ruby Isabel 11/8 bog hills, ladbrokes, vc, Stanjames Well at last the long losing run comes to an end with one of the easiest winners of the season and at a decent price, advised at 5/1, backed in to 3/1. Doubt if the systems will produce bets at Royal Ascot because in the main group, listed and class2 races are excluded but hopefully there will be a few at the away meetings.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Microsystems 550Gdwd Sheer Force 2/1 bog coral, ladbrokes