Dave in The Lakes Posted December 26, 2009 Share Posted December 26, 2009 MICROSYSTEMS I do not believe in systems! After 20 years succesfull punting this was my considered opinion until around 4 years ago I fell upon Adrian Massey's site. I am now converted because I believe it has enabled me to solve what I considered the proverbial problem with systems- If you have few criteria there are lots of bets but a low strike rate/ROI and the breaker of most systems raises it's head namely the long losing run. Conversely if there are lots of criteria you enhance the strike rate but have very few bets and who wants to run a system which produces 10 to 20 bets a year? The answer I hope is microsystems. I have developed around 20 systems each with restrictive criteria that produces in most only 10 to 20 selections a year and in the remainder 20 to 40 bets. Combined together however they produce about 300 bets a year. The philosophy behind this is similar to investing via the stock market in a unit trust or a pension plan-you dont put all your eggs in one basket ie you split your investment amongst a group of companies and if one or two go bust or just underperform it doesn't matter in the long term if the others do well. Also if you run a single system it is difficult to implement changes-with microsystems if one or more systems are underperforming they can be withdrawn and reappraised without the process coming to a grinding halt. The systems cover turf flat, all weather and to a lesser degree hurdles and to an even smaller number chases. I love the jumps but those bl**dy obstacles get in the way! As a result bets only average around 10-15 a month oct-apr and 20-30 may-sep. All seasons appear to do ok but the summer is best overall. To be honest January is not the best time to launch but I work my stats on the calendar year. The main potential problems I anticipate are- 1. The system may not eradicate the long losing run-if each system produced one loser at the same time we could have 20 losers on the trot. 2. systems based on a small number of qualifiers could be suspect. ANALYSIS OF BETS/SYSTEM As each bet is driven by the software-win or lose I dont propose to give an appraisal or enter discussions on individual selections. I am not prepared to discuss the criteria I have arrived at for any constituent of microsystems. I am happy to chat about the principals of the concept of microsystems. RESULTS ANALYSIS Results will be based on the price available at the time of posting which will be after I have backed as I intend to back all selections apart from those that are odds on. All bets were initially 1 point win or 0.5 pt ew but from 1st June 2010 it was agreed all bets would be to a simple 1pt win (at advised prices or best odds guaranteed if available with the quoted bookies). SYSTEM LAUNCH/POSTINGS Selections will commence from 1st January 2010. I cannot guarantee the post time but expect this will usually be after 11:00 am. If no post by start of racing assume no bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted December 26, 2009 Author Share Posted December 26, 2009 Re: Microsystems Record keeping will not commence till 1st Jan but Go Native 230Kemp is a bet on one of the systems. This particular system has a good place strike rate so I have backed ew even though there are only 2 places. Current prices 3.55 win 1.94 place betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted December 26, 2009 Share Posted December 26, 2009 Re: Microsystems Good luck, dave. The Adrian Massey site is very good and has helped me on numerous occasions! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted December 26, 2009 Author Share Posted December 26, 2009 Re: Microsystems Thanks mate-First bet wins but wont count for the records! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted December 30, 2009 Author Share Posted December 30, 2009 Re: Microsystems 650 kempton Hill Of Miller each way 9/1 sky, coral System records to commence 1st Jan but the above is a bet on a system which has a decent win and ew record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted December 30, 2009 Share Posted December 30, 2009 Re: Microsystems Lots of good runners in that race. I will keep an eye on the results Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 1, 2010 Author Share Posted January 1, 2010 Re: Microsystems For record purposes the thread "officialy" commences today but there are no qualifiers. From past performance I only expect about 10 bets a month at this time of year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 2, 2010 Author Share Posted January 2, 2010 Re: Microsystems 305 Southwell Onceaponatime win 10/3 bet365, Hills 310 Sandown Ghizeo win 5/2 generally Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 3, 2010 Author Share Posted January 3, 2010 Re: Microsystems No bet today. Yesterday-One non runner of course and a second lost by a length. Bets 1 Wins 0 Bank 99.0 Profit -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 4, 2010 Author Share Posted January 4, 2010 Re: Microsystems 155wolv Bawaardi win 11/4 stan james Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 4, 2010 Author Share Posted January 4, 2010 Re: Microsystems sorry 11/4 had gone befpre my post 5/2 corals will be the bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 4, 2010 Author Share Posted January 4, 2010 Re: Microsystems Today 1 bet 1 winner at 5/2 +2.5pts bets 2 wins 1 S/R 50% Bank 101.5pts Profit 1.5pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pumpit Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 Re: Microsystems Nice start Dave:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 4, 2010 Author Share Posted January 4, 2010 Re: Microsystems Thanks Zero. Hope this ticks over until the summer. I will put up all the bets the computer produces and will back most of them myself if not all as like most programmes sometimes there can be a rather odd selection! I did back this as I fancied it anyway and also put it up on the other thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 5, 2010 Author Share Posted January 5, 2010 Re: Microsystems 210southwell Borasco 1pt win 3/1 sporting bet, blue square Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 5, 2010 Author Share Posted January 5, 2010 Re: Microsystems second today. so a win and two seconds from the first three bets. bets 3 wins 1 S/R 33.3% bank 100.5pts profit 0.5pt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 5, 2010 Author Share Posted January 5, 2010 Re: Microsystems No bet wednesday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 7, 2010 Author Share Posted January 7, 2010 Re: Microsystems 110southwell Autumn Blades win 7/1 hills BOG (also 7/1 sky) This would have been an ew bet but with 7 runners there are only 2 places. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 7, 2010 Author Share Posted January 7, 2010 Re: Microsystems 3rd of 7. bets 4 wins 1 S/R 25% bank 99.5pts profit -0.5pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 17, 2010 Author Share Posted January 17, 2010 Re: Microsystems 130Fakenham No Rules 1pt win 4.3 betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 18, 2010 Author Share Posted January 18, 2010 Re: Microsystems A decent winner and pleasing to see that the first 5 bets have produced 2 winners, 2 seconds and a third albeit the latter was in a seven horse race. As I mentioned at the start I dont expect more than 10-15 bets a month during the winter/early spring. I am changing the results analysis as the bank is not really relevant because there is no staking plan at present ie all bets are to 1pt (or 0.5pt ew). I will replace it with Return On Investment (ROI), this is the yield, profit or loss, expressed as a percentage of total stakes invested. today- stakes 1pt, profit 3.14pts after 5% bfair commission bets 5 wins 2 S/R 40% stakes 5pts profit +2.64pts ROI(yield) +52.8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 19, 2010 Author Share Posted January 19, 2010 Re: Microsystems 105 Naas Midtown Boy 0.5pt ew 7/1 BOG bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 21, 2010 Author Share Posted January 21, 2010 Re: Microsystems 300taunton Novikov 0.5pt ew 9/2 BOG bet365,Betfred,Paddyp,Lads Previous bet-Midtown Boy ran well for a fair way but tired rapidly in the very holding ground in the final half mile. bets 6 wins 2 S/R 33.3% stakes 6pts profit +1.64pts ROI(yield) 27.3% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 22, 2010 Author Share Posted January 22, 2010 Re: Microsystems 505wolv turf time 5/2 BOG sjames 1pt win Novikov a clear 3rd but no chance with the nichols horse. 1pt staked; returns 1.06pt; profit 0.06pt. bets 7 wins2 S/R 28.6% stakes 7pts profit +1.70pts ROI(yield) 24.3% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 22, 2010 Author Share Posted January 22, 2010 Re: Microsystems Turf Time went off 7/4 amd ran well till fading in final 100yds to finish 3rd bets8 wins2 S/R 25% stakes 8pts profit +0.7pts ROI(yield) +8.75% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 24, 2010 Author Share Posted January 24, 2010 Re: Microsystems 245Leopardstown Celestial Halo 1pt win 9/4 BOG lads, hills 325Towcester Dinarius 0.5pt ew 15/2 sportingbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 24, 2010 Author Share Posted January 24, 2010 Re: Microsystems celestial Halo-lost; Dinarius-won. staked 2pts, returns 5.5pts, profit 3.5pts bets 10 wins 3 S/R 30% stakes 10pts profit 4.2pts ROI(yield) 42.0% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 25, 2010 Author Share Posted January 25, 2010 Re: Microsystems 210font Little Eaglet 0.5pt ew 5/1 BOG paddyp 540wolv Join up 0.5pt ew 5/1 sky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 27, 2010 Author Share Posted January 27, 2010 Re: Microsystems 420Hunt Vivarini 4/1 0.5pt ew sporting bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 27, 2010 Author Share Posted January 27, 2010 Re: Microsystems Vivarini won at 9/2 but result counts at 4/1 because sporting bet dont do BOG. stakes 1pt returns 3.5pts bets 12 wins 4 S/R 33.3% stakes 12pts profit 5.7pts ROI(yield) 47.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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