AFK7 Posted August 7, 2009 Share Posted August 7, 2009 Those of you who followed my 51 proofed bets last year would have turned your 100 points bank into a handsome 769 points. Not bad to say we did not start until November. 4 closely matched teams in 1 point Lucky 15s. Always take the best price as posted here and ensure you get treble odds 1 winner (plus 10% bonus for 4 correct). 1 winner ensures a 55% return of stakes. Minimum price taken 12/5 (except in very rare circumstances). 100 point bank to start. Here goes and the best of luck! 2x 1 point Lucky 15s Coventry v Ipswich 12/5 Southend v Hudds T 12/5 Yeovil v Tranmere 12/5 P Vale v Rochdale 12/5 Ayr v Partick 13/5 Dunfermline v Inverness 13/5 Gills v Swindon 12/5 Torquay v Chesterfield 12/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted August 7, 2009 Share Posted August 7, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Welcome back, mate! Good luck, and hope for another profitable season! :hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted August 7, 2009 Share Posted August 7, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Hi Optium, very nice thread, I read it completely and was well surprised. But one question: I searched the whole web for several days and couldn´t find a bookie paying treble odds for one winner except of firstbet, but they seem to operate no internet platform and accept bets only via telephone (may be the internet betting platform is closed for german users ??? ). I checked more than 50 bookies but couldn´t find the right bookie. Can you help me? Otherwise it would be not interesting to follow you as playing your strategy with a bookie that is only doubling the odds would bring a loss. Thank you very much for any help !!! Greetings Brecki from Germany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted August 7, 2009 Author Share Posted August 7, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Sorry Brecki, i cannot help you there. I have 3 small, independent bookies here in England who take these bets. I have never done a multiple bet online. Good luck, Otium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted August 7, 2009 Share Posted August 7, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Hi Optium, very nice thread, I read it completely and was well surprised. But one question: I searched the whole web for several days and couldn´t find a bookie paying treble odds for one winner except of firstbet, but they seem to operate no internet platform and accept bets only via telephone (may be the internet betting platform is closed for german users ??? ). I checked more than 50 bookies but couldn´t find the right bookie. Can you help me? Otherwise it would be not interesting to follow you as playing your strategy with a bookie that is only doubling the odds would bring a loss. Thank you very much for any help !!! Greetings Brecki from Germany Betfred ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted August 7, 2009 Author Share Posted August 7, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Used to do but then they stopped it. I really think you will only find independents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmoi14 Posted August 8, 2009 Share Posted August 8, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... gl ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaseous Posted August 8, 2009 Share Posted August 8, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Hi there Otium - a bit of a follower here *waves to everyone* It seems you know what you're talking about and more importantly know how to pick the infamous draw. I wish you good luck this season, and who knows some of us may even win a few quid wth you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevejjbb Posted August 10, 2009 Share Posted August 10, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Hi Otium, In your very first post last season, you said that some independent bookies: "offer best price any bookmaker" How do they actually operate this? Do they actually go and lookup the best price being offered by other bookies and write the odds offered on your betting slip, or is it up to the punter to inform the independent that better odds are being offered elsewhere? You're talking 1 point lucky 15s here, with a starting bank of £100, so a 4 match bet will be a £15 stake. In reality, what is the maximum stake that independents will take before eybrows are raised and the punter is closely watched? Or do you get your bets on by doing numerous 'small' Lucky 15s? Example: Would you prefer to do 3 'big' Lucky 15s @ £20 unit stake = £900 total stake or 60 'small' Lucky 15s @ £1 unit stake = £900 total stake ?????? No bookmaker likes to lose money, so if you're making consistant profits, and i don't doubt that you are given the mathematics and probabilities behind the system, i just wonder how you keep 'off the bookmaker's radar'? How far do you have to travel to get these bets on? You have 3 bookmakers accepting these bets in the area of the country in which you live, but you have to actually go out of your way to get to them, so the amount of your stakes placed must result in it being worthwhile. You're not driving miles to stake low amounts i would guess? Cheers, Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted August 11, 2009 Author Share Posted August 11, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Steve, lots of queries and good ones too. I will fill you in shortly so keep reading. A single and a double means a 3 point loss. Bank at 97. Actually had a great weekend as there were 31 draws in 77 top class matches. 2x 1 point Lucky 15s tonight. Exeter v QPR 5/2 Gills v Plymouth 5/2 Lincoln v Barnsley 5/2 Notts C v Doncaster 5/2 Rotherham v Derby Shrewsbury v Ipswich 5/2 Kettering v Oxford 5/2 Belarus v Croatia 5/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted August 11, 2009 Share Posted August 11, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Hi otium, if you do so many lucky 15's what is the specifics for the ones you chose to paste on here and those you don't? Also are your selections purely hand picked or do you have a criteria to meet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevejjbb Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Hi otium, if you do so many lucky 15's what is the specifics for the ones you chose to paste on here and those you don't? Also are your selections purely hand picked or do you have a criteria to meet? I think Otium identifies all matches with likely outcome being a draw, but which are also attractively priced. Any draw representing value. He posts the pick of the bunch according to his judgement on here. Have i got that correct Otium? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevejjbb Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Steve, lots of queries and good ones too. I will fill you in shortly so keep reading. OK. Looking forward to some feedback on the queries. Keep up the good work. 2 draws already in the 2nd Lucky 15 above. Belarus v Croatia could make it a nice treble, 3 doubles and 3 singles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted August 12, 2009 Author Share Posted August 12, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... You are right Steve, i have my criteria for picking draws but only post the best ones on here. Well-matched is the first point and value is the second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted August 12, 2009 Author Share Posted August 12, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... One double leaves the pot/bank at 85 points. Steve. Many independents take best prices from the Racing Post listing. This is common practice although many state big 5 bookies only. My Lucky 15s are mostly £4- £5 but sometimes i do £10 ones. Bookies tend to baulk at large singles just before kick-off. They do not generally knock back 4 team multiples. Yep, keeping off the radar is hard but you just have to play the game and spread bets around. Got two independents in my town and one 30 miles away near work that take these bets. Hope this answers your queries and good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevejjbb Posted August 12, 2009 Share Posted August 12, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Thanks Otium for the answers to queries previously posted. I never used independents before, only online accounts with various bookies to place arbitrage type bets. Made some good profits for a period of about 18 months. Eventually got limited by many of those (Bet365 allow me maximum £10 profit now, 20p profit after laying the bet), and others are even worse. So not worthwhile pursuing that route now. I’ve double checked the number of draws returned from Premiership matches back to 1992, and they are just shy of 27%, as you previously said. Removing the very probable home/away wins can therefore return 30%. Your system makes a lot of sense to me. I just wasn’t previously aware that treble odds for 1 winner was available on football result type bets, and to be paid at the best published price (even from top 5 bookies) is another important ingredient for the system. You’re staking £4 - £5 unit stakes (£60 - £75 total stakes)? So, on Tuesday you placed 20 Lucky15 bets in 3 different independents. That’s about £500 stake per shop, £1,500 in total? With a 12% edge, you’d expect on average to make £180 profit on that £1,500 stake? That’s not to be sniffed at! My only concern is that by staking £500 per visit, the likelihood of eventually being shown the door would be quite high? I’m not sure about that though, because I’m not a regular visitor to the betting shops (maybe soon to change my habits though). My previous serious bets have always been made online. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted August 13, 2009 Author Share Posted August 13, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Arbers? Bookies sworn enemies!! Where are you based Steve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevejjbb Posted August 13, 2009 Share Posted August 13, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted August 15, 2009 Author Share Posted August 15, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Sorry for the delay. 3x 1 point Lucky 15s Spurs v L'pool 12/5 Scunthorpe v Derby 12/5 Exeter v Norwich 12/5 H'pool v Charlton 12/5 Stokport v Bristol R 12/5 Swindon v MK Dons 12/5 Tranmere v Gills 5/2 Walsall v Southend 12/5 Wycombe v Leeds 13/5 C'field v Northampton 5/2 Macc'field v Notts C 5/2 Koln v Wolfsburg 13/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevejjbb Posted August 15, 2009 Share Posted August 15, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Hi Otium, Where did you find Spurs v L'pool 12/5? In the Racing Post? BestBetting (odds comparison website) says that Boyles are the only bookie offering 12/5 Does that mean that the independent must be including Boyles price when calculating their own, or have you seen this price quoted elswhere by another bookie? Have already found 4 bookies offering treble odds, fairly local to me. Not sure how they calculate their odds though. Good luck today, Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogsmith Posted August 15, 2009 Share Posted August 15, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Steve you couldnt let us know the bookies.The nearest one to me that isnt one of the big four is jennnings (im not sure if they do it) I should really have said,great stuff otium you obviously have something very good going here and i would like to thank you for sharing.Heres hoping for more of the same as last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevejjbb Posted August 15, 2009 Share Posted August 15, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... I still need to investigate these potential bookies further. Their staff seemed to think that their terms for football and horses were the same, but is yet to be proved. Best way to do that is to place some low stake bets to see if they really do return treble odds for 1 winner. Also don't know how they would react to serious stakes being placed, or whether their premises are similar to big bookies or like walking into somebody's living room. When i said they are fairly local, that means they are in my area of the country, but still an inconvenience to get to. They're not just down the road. I'm still uncertain as to what odds will be available from such bookies, so need to test that also. I believe Otium has revealed a method to get an edge, but puting it into practice may not be so straightforward. I think there is an initial learning curve to go through. I'm committed to giving this a serious go though, but will be using a different staking plan to 15 points per bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted August 15, 2009 Share Posted August 15, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... B+M Racing does treble odds, no full house bonus. Betfred online does double odds + 15% for full house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogsmith Posted August 15, 2009 Share Posted August 15, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Cheers chaps.As you say Steve this is certainly worth a look but not gonna be as easy to put the bets on.You say you may not be staking 15 point bets,do you mean you may not be doing l15s or have you got something up your sleeve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevejjbb Posted August 15, 2009 Share Posted August 15, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... If i had a starting bank of £1000, my first bet would only be £30 (or 3%, £2 unit stakes). My future stakes would be 3% of the current bank amount at any given time, whether it shrinks or increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogsmith Posted August 15, 2009 Share Posted August 15, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... wow great stuff Steve very interesting.I have always liked draws and it certainly seems otium has cracked a way of selecting them.Now the problem of getting them on at the correct bookies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevejjbb Posted August 15, 2009 Share Posted August 15, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Yes, in theory it works. In practice, we will see. Otium appears very satisfied though with his acheivements over the past decade or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogsmith Posted August 15, 2009 Share Posted August 15, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... After reading this thread yesterday i had a look into draw stats.Today i did a league that had a fairly high % of draws last year and out of the 5 games i did four were draws.I only did 20p trebles unfortunatly but got back £37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mroalan Posted August 16, 2009 Share Posted August 16, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Otium,just a thought, do you put these on a football coupon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted August 18, 2009 Author Share Posted August 18, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Interesting posts Steve. Pot falls to 60 after just one double. Personally had a winning weekend but not much use to you fellows. 2 x 1 point 15s tonight. Donny v Coventry 5/2 Walsall v Leeds 5/2 Burton v Torquay 5/2 Hull v Spurs 5/2 Alty v Histon 5/2 Chesterfield v Notts C 5/2 Celtic v Arsenal 5/2 Plymouth v Cardiff 12/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts