AFK7 Posted September 8, 2009 Author Share Posted September 8, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Had a row with my boss today, not interested in another. Actually its all totally random and my bets are 10p. I live in a 1 room bedsit with my senile Mother. My whole life is based on Walter Mitty. Steve, pm me when you get to 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 8, 2009 Share Posted September 8, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Otium why do you have a boss if this system cleans up for you! I am certainly not looking for am argument i am just interested in your selection method. Thanks for the dinner invite but i will have to decline. Why dont you just scan them up here? Why dont you understand that if you made the effort to post up before kick off and the results were half as good as you say then you would earn so much more respect. I still dont understand why you cant type your picks with numbers next to them. Eg 1 to 30. Then type out your 20 odd lucky15s using just the team numbers as code. I reckon this would take about 15 mins max. Try it for one weekend and become a legend if it works??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gooner steve Posted September 8, 2009 Share Posted September 8, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... This is one of three system threads I read on a daily basis and have enjoyed most of the content. I think this style of betting has alot of potential and needs to be explored more. In the past, before I became aware of this thread I would do very similar small bets, I called them "my value bets". So to the now. Yes I have became a little frustrated at not knowing the exact system OTIUM use's. But why, Because like everyone else I want to make money and spank the bookies. Ok so maybe OTIUM has bent the forum rules a bit and has left himself open to people questioning his credentials. I dont know if OTIUM is a story writer or someone who has found an edge (I would side more to the "edge" though if I had to) but either way, I will still follow this thread and add to it when I feel I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevejjbb Posted September 8, 2009 Share Posted September 8, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidders Posted September 8, 2009 Share Posted September 8, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... otium. move onto the glory hunters section then me and others can read your selections and views there, without being hassled,umm:nana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted September 8, 2009 Author Share Posted September 8, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Thanks to those of you who are positive. Of course its hard to accept a £10k a week punter. Why would anyone want to believe that? Already part-time Muppet, worked there 30 years, old habits die hard especially with 3 mortgages and a puritanical work ethic. Will be jacking in Feb anyway. Off to Majorca for a few days and then Ukraine to see England. Not going to rise to the bait on here from the 10p each way brigade. If winning tips are not enough for you crack on, you dont deserve to win. As of now i will only post my bets. No insight, no responses, no unnecessary bleating about near misses. ps Did any of you clear £38k last season? pps As i said, old habits die hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevejjbb Posted September 8, 2009 Share Posted September 8, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Let's hope for some profitable selections this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted September 9, 2009 Author Share Posted September 9, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Steve, you clearly get the maths, there is nothing worse than wasted intellect. You will get to 50 soon and then lunch is on me :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevejjbb Posted September 9, 2009 Share Posted September 9, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Otium, I spent a lot of time during the past month developing an application that puts 'the 4 draws' through 1000 year cycles, using randomly generated strike-rates between 27 and 31%. It reports on maximum risk exposure during that time-frame for the least profitable year, as well as the potential gains to be made in the more prosperous ones. You may be interested in the results, but you probably have a good idea of what's acheivable and the risks associated anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 9, 2009 Share Posted September 9, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Steve does this mean that you know how to pick the selections? Do you have a list of the selections picked so far? Perhaps you could post it or let me know the headline stats for the multiple and also single picks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dogegg Posted September 9, 2009 Share Posted September 9, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... ps Did any of you clear £38k last season? Even the maths of that don't add up with some of your previous claims of your stake sizes and returns, etc. :rollin Otium, the fact that you can't/haven't answered one query proves my point that there is a large degree of fantasy land about all of this. A lot of your posts stink of somebody acting the billy big bollox with nothing to actually back it up. If you are doing it, fantastic and congratulations. But a lot of your posts on this and your previous thread contradict each other, a lot of your posts stink of attention-seeking and a lot of your posts are arrogant and patronising. People have asked you several times to justify your off-thread betting and your after-eventing, yet you never do. It's obvious you don't like being challenged on your off-thread betting - strange huh! So if that's the case, stop posting about it because while you continue to post, the good work that you do actually do is being undermined. I don't know why you can't understand that? Intellects create winning systems, clowns after-event. You seem to be both. As for the '10p each-way brigade' and 'wasted intellect' jibes, that says more about your personality than anything else and actually supports my theory that you're exaggerating a lot of the truth here. People tend to resort to cheap jibes when someone is getting close to the truth. I'll leave you to it on this thread now as my initial question was to understand what you were doing and how it was working but unfortunately you are not able to answer either point. Instead you posted a cocky and arrogant response and we have strayed away from my initial question. So, I wish you and your followers all the best with your fairytale and I look forward to reading the rest of your story. If anyone's interested, I'm starting up a new systems thread where I post up all of my bets the day after the games are played - winners and losers so it's obviously all true. But as I will show you, I always make a profit. :wall One final point, how have the mods let all of this after-eventing and bullshit go on for so long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevejjbb Posted September 9, 2009 Share Posted September 9, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... £3.33K staked, say , 3 times per week = £10k 12% average edge on 10K = £1,200 £1,200 x 39 weeks in footy season = £46,800 Otium said that he cleared £38k last season, less than £46,800. I guess he just had a bad season compared to others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dogegg Posted September 9, 2009 Share Posted September 9, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... :wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevejjbb Posted September 9, 2009 Share Posted September 9, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... @Muppet77 I don’t know the special ingredient in selecting draws, but have researched historical statistics on how many matches end up as draws. From that, and using the ‘boost’ that a L15 can give, I believe there is an edge to be had. I have not even considered singles, and would never, unless one bookie (or Betfair) is completely out of line with others. I have not put any of this into practice yet, but do intend to. I’d hope to improve on my strike-rate as I gain more experience on how to select draws. That’s all that Otium has claimed to have done, as far as I am aware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 9, 2009 Share Posted September 9, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Cheers steve. As i posted some calculations earlier the lucky 15 with treble odds one winner and 15% bonus for 4 winners gives you around an extra 2% allowance on your strike rate. So if the odds say that you need 30% strike then the bonuses mean that it can be actually 28% ish to break even. After that it is just about sitting around until 4 teams draw and you have them peppered in a lucky 15 some where. Above all that a proper system that gives you the edge increases your profit. Any picks tonight otium? There are about 30 matches to choose from. Why dont you pick your teams and then just bet and post "all trebles and 4 folds"? This saves the hassle of whats happened before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted September 9, 2009 Share Posted September 9, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... For example for tonight you just write "using the best draw prices from the racing post i have selected 7 teams. Every possible lucky 15 with 7 teams is 35 lucky 15s. One quid per bet equals 525 quid. The teams are bosnia, nireland, scotland, serbia, slovenia, bolivia and paraguay." :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted September 9, 2009 Author Share Posted September 9, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... 10 years ago i would have been fuming. Dogegg, when you get to 50 posts PM me and i will invite you to see my bets. Cannot say fairer than that can I? Then you can publicly apologise on here. Last season was my best ever Steve, bigger stakes you see. Nearly Muppet but too much short-term exposure. What if you go 20 matches without a draw? Seriously, just gonna posts tips for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevejjbb Posted September 9, 2009 Share Posted September 9, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... What if you go 20 matches without a draw? Don't get too greedy too quickly is the key. Stay calm and pace yourself, otherwise you're quite likely to dismiss it as a loser. If you maintain a long term strike-rate and cater for the inevitable rough patches, then the only way is up. That's the way i see it anyway :nana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted September 11, 2009 Author Share Posted September 11, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... 1X 1 POINT LUCKY 15. Will add more Saturday a.m Southend v Leeds 5/2 Ayr v Aidrie 11/4 Spurs v Man U 12/5 Gills v Millwall 12/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevejjbb Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Ayr v Aidrie @ 11/4 (3.75) represents good value. That price is also arb material (if we were doing that). Ladbrokes out of line with other bookies, hence best price to be quoted in RP tomorrow. Gills v Millwall @ 12/5 (3.4), fairly evenly matched, hence good probability of draw. 15 more to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted September 12, 2009 Author Share Posted September 12, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Of course, generally, betfair finds the median (if you ignore the big boys laying off). Trust me Steve, theres often a slightly better price, as long as i am happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted September 12, 2009 Author Share Posted September 12, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... 2x 1 point Lucky 15s Macc v Barnet 12/5 Shrews v Crewe 12/5 Hamilton v Hibs 12/5 York v Kettering Hayes v Tamworth 12/5 Histon v Kiddy 12/5 Wrexham v Oxford 12/5 Dortmund v Bayern 12/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevejjbb Posted September 12, 2009 Share Posted September 12, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Dortmund v Bayern had £700 available @ 3.85 (3.71 after 5% comms) on Betfair. Better to have snapped that up? Ladbrokes were 5/2 and Betfred 13/5 on same match. Guess odds widened since RP published. Similar, but not as large, widening of price also on Hamilton v Hibs. Just pondering the best way to go in those situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted September 12, 2009 Author Share Posted September 12, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Steve, this is not singles, i cannot use Betfair odds except laying off. As long as the game meets my criteria and its 12/5 or more it makes no difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevejjbb Posted September 12, 2009 Share Posted September 12, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... I just thought that if odds widen elsewhere long enough to overtake the bonus advantage that a L15 can provide, maybe that needs to be considered somehow also. Just thinking out aloud. I know that you know your selection criteria and required prices inside out, so no arguement from me on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted September 12, 2009 Author Share Posted September 12, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... See your point. You mean if the Befair price is so many percent greater than my needs do a single? Been down that road. Takes a lot of time and energy to follow market moves/prices but if you know your onions you can make it pay. I have 4.7% commission on Betfair and thats the killer. Had a cracking, cracking day. 6 draws from 10 matches in the BSP was the difference. Keep posting. Regards Otium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevejjbb Posted September 13, 2009 Share Posted September 13, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Yes, was thinking along those lines. 3.85 (3.71 @ 5% comms) will return 13% more than 3.4 (as single). If average edge by using a L15 is 12% (@ 30% strikerate), then taking the price (very much out of line) on BetFair would perhaps be a wiser move? Obviously more hassle and juggling of stakes involved, but may just increase on the edge. Example: If 13 selections fitted the selection criteria on a matchday, one of those having much superior price available on BF, may make sense to do 3 L15s and one single? Just thiinking how to make the most of all 'tools' available! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevejjbb Posted September 13, 2009 Share Posted September 13, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... 2 doubles and 1 single (may become double if Hamilton v Hibs draw later today). That's an impressive 5 out of 11 so far. Bad luck that they are arrange in the L15s to only return doubles. If the 12 matches were permend, would be better return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted September 13, 2009 Author Share Posted September 13, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... Pot at 143. Drip, drip!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gooner steve Posted September 13, 2009 Share Posted September 13, 2009 Re: The 4 Draws returns... 5 out of 12, 1 result the difference between profit and a negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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