Finding your Niche..

[SWFC_Naps.]

Hi all, People may have noticed that I only really restrict myself to posting in the BBOTD thread, and I am aware that this is not what is needed on this forum. I think the reason for this, is, I don't feel confident enough that I know what I'm talking about to join in some of the discussions. I find this forum fascinating for the spectrum of views and knowledge on all things racing - its clear that many people on here have a deep involvement that goes further than my "mug punter" knowledge. I appreciate that I have learnt a lot from this forum, and hopefully this may continue. Being a complete inner-city urban product, I've never sat on a horse, and have only ever been to a meeting once (Market Raisen, was a good day and eye opening). Things like people commenting on how well a horse looks in the paddock (I'm clueless, apart from being able to spot a horse sweating up) are not common to me, clearly this is something I will have to attend more meetings and sort :) Anyway, looking back through my selections, I have noticed a bit of a trend. I have moderate success with 2 year olds, a high success rate with very poor flat races (what would have been 'banded' stakes in the past I suppose, 0-65 etc) and shocking at group races. So I think I'm going to start to stick to these races, for some reason I seem to be reading the form well, and its not lost on me that while my selections are normally 3/1 or lower, each time I have been above this, I have scored (bar one selection). I've had 13/2, 9/1, 12/1 on the button and a 20/1 place. In time I may start my own thread, focussing on these types of races and hopefully seeing if we can plug a few winners out of these awful races. Has anyone else found a niche like this where they seem to excel at one thing, and stick to it? I know BH (I think) seems to stick to Novice Hurdles, I think its great how one particular type of race seems to resonate with certain people..

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Finding your Niche.. Similar to you, i know very little about racing as a whole but i'm learning every day. Just got back from Folkestone and looking at the horses in the paddock i really coulndnt make a 'paddock pick'. I stick to the low grade flat races mainly. Have tried group races but just cant get my head around them. I also try to stick to fields of 10 and less but do occasionally go over that limit.

[chris34]

Re: Finding your Niche.. Like you 2 knew very very little before joining this forum now i feel I have an ok knowledge but I am still learning and hope I will continue throughout the rest of my life! I personally find my niche right now is handicaps especially low grades do occasionaly play in stake races, claimers, sellers but not so much this time of year. I enjoy group racing but dont do to well in it from a punting point of view so steer clear of them for any serious punts. During the winter I did really well on the all weather last year in all sorts of races simply because my job slackens off slightly and less racing so got more time with replays and form books etc. hope I can pick this up again this year! Not big fan of jumps and do struggle to read form book when it comes to NH but hope to improve this winter maybe ;)!!

[Kithanga]

Re: Finding your Niche.. Good question. I think most people have a preference, I certainly do. Interestingly it's different now to what it was 10 yrs ago. I still bet in most types of races but adjust my stake to reflect my level of comfort. This is because I found that I did poorer in my preferred races when I only bet in those races. Probably down to not having enough action or the maybe just the extra pressure when you get a losing run in the races you shouldn't be losing in - what do you do then! I also think it helps to still try to beat the races you struggle with (and discuss them with others) and try to find the key to them as it improves your all round experience and ensures you improve over all. If you post your thinking on here you'll get some help too. I did recently when asking about handicaps and fintron posted some ideas that he uses in his approach. I've since done some more research into my past results. It's led to a couple of subtle changes and so far so good with the last few bets in that area picking up and some no-bet races where I've been happier with my conclusions too. I do best in: Flat group, listed and conditions, especially at 10f or less and sprint handicaps. I do worst in: All other handicaps, 2yo races especially nursery's, races over 2m and jumps races. I also do badly in the rain and tread very carefully on those days. Above all I'd say keep trying different things, keep the stakes lower and chat as much to others as possible about how they approach them. Hope that helps.

[bowles10]

Re: Finding your Niche.. Interesting thoughts from some of our younger members :ok, for me your comments show that this place is good for learning etc from others. There are some excellent views from a wide range of punters (all ages). I do note we dont have many what i would call "older" punters & perhaps thats a generation thing with forums etc, i am talking over 60's who have been punting for years but have seen the game change from seedy betting shops to where we are now. Read through some of the discussion threads we have had if you can find them, as there have been some interesting pointers on handicaps, styles of betting, staking plans etc.

[Trotter]

Re: Finding your Niche.. Opposite to some of the posts above, I think I know a lot about the structure of racing, how races are framed, - I often find myself answering question in the stickies like 'what does penalty value mean' or as to how handicapping works. What I'm not so good on is day to day racing, settling down to follow a particular type of race. Already this season I've decided to follow - Group One races, all group races, 2YO pattern races, all 5 furlong races, all weather races, Irish racing. Every few weeks i seem to change my mind, pick something new, spends hours and hours researching it..........err, then change my mind again................:lol I just get flummoxed by the amount of racing............:cry As for the forum I also tend to post mainly in BBotD and sometimes the meeting thread - usually if it's an evening AW meeting. I've also noticed in the last couple of months a worrying development in that if I have a few losers on the trot in BBotD, I stop posting for a few days hoping my luck might change.............:loon I love to see the 'debate' or general racing threads, - but there's not many of them. I think that's the main drawback of the forum, but I guess you can't force it and I'm as guilty as anyone else for not starting 'topic' threads I also sometimes think I'd like to disagree with someone's selection in a meeting thread and post why I don't think it would win.......in a friendly manner !.........but that doesn't seem to be the done thing........mostly the meeting threads lack any 'discussion'........just a list of selections Hmm..........ramnling a bit now as befits someone who's nearly 60. It's this internettyweb malarky..........:lol:lol

[ValueFinder]

Re: Finding your Niche.. Best way forward mate. I'm not a horse backer, I'm a football and golf backer and after years of floating through a lot of different markets (and keeping spreadsheets of the different market results - VERY important), you begin to see the certain areas where you excel, certain areas where you can improve and then other areas where the compilers are obviously on the ball and it's not worth the bother. So in short, it's best to focus on the markets/areas that you are good in(or "have an eye for") and become an expert in this field. Remember that you can get access to all the stats that the compilers have but if you concentrate you efforts on a certain area(if you have a talent for it) it won't be long before you have a much deeper knowledge than the compilers in the particular area. NEVER underestimate logic in successful punting, stats are stats but logic AND stats/form as well as math(probability)are the winning combination. Good luck and don't be afraid to start a thread even if you get off to a bad start, that happens. Nic

[StuSimmy]

Re: Finding your Niche.. I don't actually know my strong points for race type, I seem to bet on a wide variety of races, if I fancy a horse I will back it no matter what sort of race it is entered in. I didn't have great knowledge before coming on here, was still quite successful but not as much as I am now due to gaining a fair bit of knowledge on here. My picks now are much more educated since I found this place, not even sure how I based my picks before I signed up on here to be honest.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Finding your Niche..

Opposite to some of the posts above, I think I know a lot about the structure of racing, how races are framed, - I often find myself answering question in the stickies like 'what does penalty value mean' or as to how handicapping works. What I'm not so good on is day to day racing, settling down to follow a particular type of race. Already this season I've decided to follow - Group One races, all group races, 2YO pattern races, all 5 furlong races, all weather races, Irish racing. Every few weeks i seem to change my mind, pick something new, spends hours and hours researching it..........err, then change my mind again................:lol I just get flummoxed by the amount of racing............:cry As for the forum I also tend to post mainly in BBotD and sometimes the meeting thread - usually if it's an evening AW meeting. I've also noticed in the last couple of months a worrying development in that if I have a few losers on the trot in BBotD, I stop posting for a few days hoping my luck might change.............:loon I love to see the 'debate' or general racing threads, - but there's not many of them. I think that's the main drawback of the forum, but I guess you can't force it and I'm as guilty as anyone else for not starting 'topic' threads I also sometimes think I'd like to disagree with someone's selection in a meeting thread and post why I don't think it would win.......in a friendly manner !.........but that doesn't seem to be the done thing........mostly the meeting threads lack any 'discussion'........just a list of selections Hmm..........ramnling a bit now as befits someone who's nearly 60. It's this internettyweb malarky..........:lol:lol

I agree with that, i appreciate alot of people wouldnt like there selections being questioned, but me personally, i'd like to see if there's things i'm doing wrong and if someone far more knowledgeable than me thinks im talking sh*te, i'd like them to tell me.

[Trotter]

Re: Finding your Niche..

I agree with that' date=' i appreciate alot of people wouldnt like there selections being questioned, but me personally, i'd like to see if there's things i'm doing wrong and if someone far more knowledgeable than me thinks im talking sh*te, i'd like them to tell me.[/quote'] I wasn't really thinking of posting that someone had made a mistake or done something wrong..........I mean, it's all about opinions ! I was thinking more along the lines of, say .......someone putting up Pegasus in the 3.30.......and someone else posting that they thought he might not get the trip or pointing out that all his wins have been on right hand tracks, something like that. I can see though that it might get 'personal' if it turned into some kind of gloating or clever clogs-ness.........in which case we're probably better off without. Might give it a go one day and see what happens............:loon

[fintron]

Re: Finding your Niche.. I know what you mean Trotter. Because this is on a forum, posts that are merely discussing a horse could be interpreted wrongly if the original poster gets all defensive, as its hard to tell the spirit with which comments are sometimes intended. RE finding a niche - always a good idea to concentrate in a certain area I agree. For me its handicaps, although I feel nurseries, although technically handicaps, need approaching in a completely different way to 'normal' handicaps. Those are my two speciality areas. However, once a punter has found a niche I don't think they should just become engulfed in their own world with it and ignore everything else. There are times when bad runs strike and things simply don't work and a good punter needs to be adapatable and find new races to make money from - otherwise they get left behind.

[mowgli77]

Re: Finding your Niche.. There is nothing wrong with disagreeing with someones selection as long as it's done in the right manner. It can seem like someone is just shooting down your selections and that could prevent new posters from putting up their selections. You will always continue learning within horseracing, anyone who says they have learnt everything is lying. Imagine your first post you select a horse and then 5-6 other members say it won't win, doesn't exactly fill you with confidence does it? As for finding your niche I found it best to avoid claimers, sellers, low class handicaps. For me this is where racing is most bent and horses can often be running to reduce their handicap rating with no intention of winning. A jockey could make more money pulling up a horse that is laid on Betfair than from winning the race. That for me is less likely to happen in a Group 1 race worth hundreds of thousands of pounds. I know many have said to stick to class 3 and above and I'd agree with that although there are some decent class 4 races too. I also find there are less hard luck stories of horses missing the break etc over races 1m+ than a sprint like 5f. From recording my own bets I found I lost money on sprints and low class races but did ok in listed and above and over 1m+. People like Russ and Fintron do really well in handicaps, as does Billy The Punter. BH and Mileni do well over the jumps and Bowles and JTW do well with trends. If you are new to racing you could try solve the puzzle of a race without betting on it just to get into form study and record the results to see where your strengths and weaknesses are. Main thing I would say is that if you don't understand anything just ask. There is no such thing as a stupid question and there is a Q and A thread stickied at the top of the page. There is a box on the Racing Post site that you can tick that shows race conditions, you may see horses carrying different weights in non handicaps and this explains why, penalties, weight for age etc, very useful. :ok

[BillyHills]

Re: Finding your Niche.. As far as disagreeing with members selections, I see nothing wrong with it at all, its the after eventing and gloating we want to avoid, some may think one always leads to another but I reckon we have a good nucleus of guys on here now and are old enough and big enough to either learn, admit mistakes or just to disagree which is healthy on a forum. We dont want just selections all the time and then dancing cows or bananas when someone gets a winner, its fine but we do want something a bit different at times. I get bored of Jockeys getting the blame all the time but accept that this will happen no matter what, I get angry when people just always ask for stuff because they cant be bothered to scan the net themseleves yet dont contribute to anything else, it all makes the forum what it is but a good discussion now and again is welcome if any of you want to start a thread feel free anytime, you dont have to be an established member to start things off and unless its something really stupid or spam you wont get blasted either. Dont be afraid to ask 'newbie' questions either, how else do you learn and we have some guys who love to teach. I do agree that finding a 'niche' is a good idea, just way too much racing nowadays to keep on top of it all unless you do it for a living or have endless hours to study, because this game aint easy and thats whats required to be a success at it consistantly, anyone can have a good day, week, month but to do it over a long period needs more, just look at the BBOTD figures, its a good overview of how punters have changing fortunes. Betting is like many other things in life, if you were shopping for a car, mortgage or even a new mobile, you would (I hope) research the thing and see whats best for your needs, after all your going to let go of some hard earned cash for it, I beggers belief that some punters will just back something without any study and just follow a jockey or a trainer or just back the fav blindly and then when they lose blame a poor ride or insist it was bad luck, its just bad betting, but thats just my view.

[fintron]

Re: Finding your Niche..

As far as disagreeing with members selections, I see nothing wrong with it at all, its the after eventing and gloating we want to avoid, some may think one always leads to another but I reckon we have a good nucleus of guys on here now and are old enough and big enough to either learn, admit mistakes or just to disagree which is healthy on a forum. We dont want just selections all the time and then dancing cows or bananas when someone gets a winner, its fine but we do want something a bit different at times. I get bored of Jockeys getting the blame all the time but accept that this will happen no matter what, I get angry when people just always ask for stuff because they cant be bothered to scan the net themseleves yet dont contribute to anything else, it all makes the forum what it is but a good discussion now and again is welcome if any of you want to start a thread feel free anytime, you dont have to be an established member to start things off and unless its something really stupid or spam you wont get blasted either. Dont be afraid to ask 'newbie' questions either, how else do you learn and we have some guys who love to teach. I do agree that finding a 'niche' is a good idea, just way too much racing nowadays to keep on top of it all unless you do it for a living or have endless hours to study, because this game aint easy and thats whats required to be a success at it consistantly, anyone can have a good day, week, month but to do it over a long period needs more, just look at the BBOTD figures, its a good overview of how punters have changing fortunes. Betting is like many other things in life, if you were shopping for a car, mortgage or even a new mobile, you would (I hope) research the thing and see whats best for your needs, after all your going to let go of some hard earned cash for it, I beggers belief that some punters will just back something without any study and just follow a jockey or a trainer or just back the fav blindly and then when they lose blame a poor ride or insist it was bad luck, its just bad betting, but thats just my view.

There speaks the Punters Lounge oracle, very well said :clap I think with punters, and I speak from personal experience, when things are going wrong, they often speak of luck changing, and sometimes refuse to accept they are doing things wrong. But if those losses are long term then something has to change, and thats where the research you speak of comes into play BH. I think to most, betting just starts out as a hobby, and when I started the thought of buying books on the subject seemed a bit geeky. But I think you can pick so much up in such a short space of time from reading and for even the casual weekend punter, it pays to have a read around, time permitting. Smiths and Waterstones have some great books, most are under a tenner, and it can make a big difference. I don't mean to say that the only way to research is to read though. I mean, reading is a good means but some people don't have the attention span to sit down and turn pages, and searching through databases such as the RP and Massey can be equally as useful and any amount of research like this into a specific field can save time and effort compared to if a niche area is specialised on a whim.

[Trotter]

Re: Finding your Niche.. I read quite a few books when I first got interested, back in the 80s I bought a few American books about US racing and that was a real eye-opener. Most of the British books I'd read were about 'handicapping' - lbs for distance beaten, that kind of thing, course descriptions, conformation, trainer styles When i read the US books it was all about speed ratings, rail-huggers, wide runners ( like Greyhound racing !), splits, uncontested leads etc...... When I came back to racing a couple of years ago I noted that this US 'handicapping' had really infiltrated over here.