bowles10 Posted April 26, 2009 Share Posted April 26, 2009 4.20 I am in Russ' camp here with SUNRISE SAFARI, i recall the horse which was formerly trained by Ian Semple who i followed for some time before his ban. The horse is capable of much better than this rating of 85 sggests & i expect it to shine in a few big handicaps this year starting with this one. Drawn well but is normally held up a bit, will have to pass the likes of Valery Borzov which will lead. Normally takes at least 1 or 2 races to hit form so :hope its outing at beverley earlier in the month blew away some cobwebs. EW BET Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 26, 2009 Author Share Posted April 26, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April That was for Newcastle, sorry BH! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOP CAT Posted April 26, 2009 Share Posted April 26, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April Towcester 17:10 Nat hunt flat race. JENNY'S GOLD was last out 50 days ago and finished 2nd i remember T.MURPHY getting some stick for not being up with the pace early on in the race, he finished well and came in for 2nd place, T.MURPHY takes the trip again for this sole ride of the card HOWEVER so does choc Thornton for his guvnor Mr king, for me its a battle between the 2 of them but for me if T,MURPHY gets it right this time his journey will not be wasted, might even try a cheeky f/c 5-10 @ tow 1st Jenny's gold 2nd shilpa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshman443 Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April 8-10 southwell--king of beers-e/way this horse ran over a mile and half last time and finished second [7L clear of the third horse]but this his a better trip for him,he trounced the others over this c/d the time before last and his course form reads 222412 so with proven course form and the form hes in now he will do e/way for me pls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blader1889 Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April Newcastle 4-50pm - Floor Show I'm taking fitness on trust as he has run for over 200 days. There was a lot to like about his last run over todays trip. I'm banking on improvement, but think he's the sort to show it. One slight negative though. McMahon has only had two winners from his last 28 runners, although he's copped for no less than 9 seconds! Maybe he's due a change of fortune? Price around 7/1 - E.W. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April Newc 4.20 Thebes 1pt win See last week for this one. I liked it up at pont. and it ran a really good race I thought, unabale to really dominate but it ultimately finished really strongly to be a narrow second after ever so slightly being unable to fully challenge for a split moment. However there was no disgrace in that defeat to advanced who was nicely handicapped that day in comparison to anything like his former days and the pair had put a good couple of lengths on the field which encourages. As I said last week this horse is much better at 6f and especially a 6f that just takes a little bit of getting like this 6f does, something that doesnt bode well for sunrise safari imo. Sure he hasnt won for a while on turf but he couldnt have come much closer last week and if in similar form today, off the same mark, he could go very close indeed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April 2.50 Newcastle Mister Arjay - typically races at this level, handles firm, won at the track before, distance no problem, has slipped below last winning mark, proven to go well fresh. 1 pt win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April Southwell. 7:10 Jord This filly is certainly consistent, having won two of her last three races, and being second in the other, so it might be rather a risk opposing her in a small field. However, I've got to follow my instincts. At the beginning of this run she was on a mark of 60. The penalty for her latest success effectively takes her up to 72, which is quite a hike. I felt that last win, when she just held off a hot favourite, was largely down to the apprentice on the runner up not being able to ride a strong enough finish, and the 6lb penalty for winning might be a tough one to overcome if she is in a similar situation this evening. Furthermore, that was over 6 furlongs, whereas today's race is over a mile - a distance over which she has not won since December 2007. Overall, I feel a lay at the current low price represents good value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaka59921 Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April 2.00 PLUMPTON - LAY Mac Halen - 2.94 Five horses line up here in this novices hurdle and one we can immediately take out is Nimbus Flyer, who would have a better chance of winning the lottery than winning this race. Quaddick Lake and Mac Halen are vying for favouritism at the head of the market. I think there is value in taking Mac Halen on today. As with any lay, we must look to the other horses in the field and possibly some question marks about the horse we are laying. Quaddick Lake has performed really well in better races than this and ran up a two timer a few weeks back. A bad performance at Cheltenham is forgiven as the horse was up against some decent animals but was never in contention that day and that is not a true reflection of the horses ability. Will love the ground and sure to get the trip. Kings Alchemist has been running very well indeed and must be given a very big chance in the race based on the figures. Stepping up in distance today which is a question mark but this horse has better form than Mac Halen in my opinion, two solid seconds in his last two races and there is no guarantee that Mac Halen has his measure. Mystic Storm is not given a huge chance on paper but stranger things have happened and I expect this horse to at least do itself justice in the race and run well. Now we turn to Mac Halen. This animal showed absolutely nothing in three hurdles races at the back end of last year, going off at 25s, 50s and 100s respectively. Went off at 50s in a dire contest last time and came second. Had Tuskar Rock behind that day but it is my belief that Tuskar ran well below form. Stepping up in trip today might bring some improvement, but it might not, and this is a much better race than last time. I expect either Kings Alchemist or Quaddick Lake to beat this animal and have laid this animal today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April 4.20 Newcastle - Valery Borzov - win 3 wins and a second from 5 runs in April and May in previous years. Back from a disappointing experience in Dubai, and back down to the same mark from which he was a hd second in Ripon's Great St Wilfrid last August. Has wins on ground ranging from Heavy to GF, but will be suited by the rain that has fell up here this morning. 9/1 available and I'd give him a better than 10% chance of taking this today.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April 2:50 Newcastle - Touchdown - Back Johnson's stable has been in fine form of late and this looks a good opportunity for them to pick up another winner. Granted this is a step up in class for this lad, but he won well last time, suggesting there should be more to come 1pt win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April 210 Towcester : Presentandcorrect Just wrote half a page about a selection and went to check the latest price and its a NR!! So forgive the small write up here. Form figures of FBP doesnt inspire much but on his best form is a class above these, 11 lenghts behind Kalahari King would have this lot beaten a circuit out and the stable had the big winner on Sat so hopefully this one will be fit after his spin over hurdles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diamond1924 Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April 740 Southwell ESPRIT DE MIDAS Win Kevin Ryan / Neil Callan have a fairly strong hand here, Safebreaker could also go well for Amy in the last. I'll no doubt be backing the wrong one here knowing my luck, but I'll go for Esprit de Midas in the 740pm race. This one is up a few lbs for it's recent impressive displays and there looks to be plenty improvement in this one, though I'd expect Barron's horse to give it plenty to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtoz Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April 6.40 Southall. Kyle. 1 pt win. Kyle has never raced at Southall before but has three places from five runs on the a/w.He has good stats when racing on good/soft on the turf-five runs and two wins and three places so I'm hoping the conditions won't be a problem.He had an encouraging run at Windsor on 6th April over 5 furlongs in a class 4,having to be dropped in at the rear of the field from a wide draw.He was a long way off the pace but made good headway along the rail.One furlong out he was pushed along and stayed on well to grab third place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cc75 Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April Newcastle 4.20: Valery Borzov WIN Popular race today, but I am going to side with Samba - sorry Samba as now it will most certainly need a miracle to win with my money on!! Sprint king Dandy Nicholls has 2 in this and to be honest both are in with chances with Machinist having a 7lb claimer on that makes it's mark look very realistic today but I am going to plump for Valery Borzov. Samba already pointed out that it had a couple of runs in Dubai earlier this year but didn't figure although didn't get much luck in running on both occasions. Can run well from today's mark as shown in the Great St Wilfred at Ripon last August when just beaten. Adrian Nicholls takes the ride and you would assume he would have been given first choice so my idea of winner of a fairly open looking race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pumpit Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April Newcastle 3.50pm 1pt lay Fastnet Storm A few took the eye today for laying but this horse is the one that i view will not win for a solid lay bet. A few things for me dont add up today with this horse and think its form figs look better than the horse is really which brings me to lay this horse today. Goodluck Whatever You Bet Today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April News 4.20 - Thebes - 2 points win (banker) Like Woody above, I was also on this last week when it got mugged on the line at 9/1............:wall It owes me one............:lol Got it's ideal conditions again today, 6F, fast ground. He's won class 2 handicaps before and is just 2 lbs higher than his last wining mark. Barney Mcgrew looks like the main danger but his record at Class 2 is poor - 11 runs, 0 wins - and he's 5 lbs higher than his last winning mark Last chance saloon for Thebes................:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April 2:50 Newcastle - Touchdown - Back Johnson's stable has been in fine form of late and this looks a good opportunity for them to pick up another winner. Granted this is a step up in class for this lad, but he won well last time, suggesting there should be more to come 1pt win this one was a non-runner so I'll have another one please 3.50 Newcastle Box Office Yard are in great form, this one won well in a maiden on its last run last year and can pick up from where it left off here. 1 pt win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOP CAT Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April 2.50 Newcastle Mister Arjay - typically races at this level, handles firm, won at the track before, distance no problem, has slipped below last winning mark, proven to go well fresh. 1 pt win Did you punch a gypsy selling lucky white heather ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOP CAT Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April Paul Hanagan ''your fired'' He was also on a big gamble today in the 3-20 Supreme Speedster came in last of 16. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOP CAT Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April 2.00 PLUMPTON - LAY Mac Halen - 2.94 Five horses line up here in this novices hurdle and one we can immediately take out is Nimbus Flyer, who would have a better chance of winning the lottery than winning this race. Quaddick Lake and Mac Halen are vying for favouritism at the head of the market. I think there is value in taking Mac Halen on today. As with any lay, we must look to the other horses in the field and possibly some question marks about the horse we are laying. Quaddick Lake has performed really well in better races than this and ran up a two timer a few weeks back. A bad performance at Cheltenham is forgiven as the horse was up against some decent animals but was never in contention that day and that is not a true reflection of the horses ability. Will love the ground and sure to get the trip. Kings Alchemist has been running very well indeed and must be given a very big chance in the race based on the figures. Stepping up in distance today which is a question mark but this horse has better form than Mac Halen in my opinion, two solid seconds in his last two races and there is no guarantee that Mac Halen has his measure. Mystic Storm is not given a huge chance on paper but stranger things have happened and I expect this horse to at least do itself justice in the race and run well. Now we turn to Mac Halen. This animal showed absolutely nothing in three hurdles races at the back end of last year, going off at 25s, 50s and 100s respectively. Went off at 50s in a dire contest last time and came second. Had Tuskar Rock behind that day but it is my belief that Tuskar ran well below form. Stepping up in trip today might bring some improvement, but it might not, and this is a much better race than last time. I expect either Kings Alchemist or Quaddick Lake to beat this animal and have laid this animal today. Another nice call. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boulder5111 Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April N4.20 Celtic Sultan 1pt Win This thread probably needs another selection in the 4.20 like a hole in the head but it's the only one I fancy today ! The key here for me is the generous handicap rating (has won off higher marks in the past) combined with the fact that the horse runs its best races when fresh. Could also be improvement to come and the jockey gets on well with the horse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April Did you punch a gypsy selling lucky white heather ? :lol 0-28 this month I reckon....just two days to go! Well done Kaka with the lay :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOP CAT Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April N4.20 Celtic Sultan 1pt Win This thread probably needs another selection in the 4.20 like a hole in the head but it's the only one I fancy today ! The key here for me is the generous handicap rating (has won off higher marks in the past) combined with the fact that the horse runs its best races when fresh. Could also be improvement to come and the jockey gets on well with the horse. Hoprock i just love Blackpool am down every year with my daughter and should be down end of july, i have worked and lived there in the past, even thinking of moving there, people give it bad press but i love the place, nothing to do with racing i know but just giving my thoughts :ok ps ive also heard the front prom is all now complete. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franaganmc Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April blader1889 Newbie Punter well done mate..thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blader1889 Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April blader1889 Newbie Punter well done mate..thanks Beginners luck! :D If you backed it, hope you cleaned up! :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franaganmc Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April Towcester 17:10 Nat hunt flat race. JENNY'S GOLD was last out 50 days ago and finished 2nd i remember T.MURPHY getting some stick for not being up with the pace early on in the race, he finished well and came in for 2nd place, T.MURPHY takes the trip again for this sole ride of the card HOWEVER so does choc Thornton for his guvnor Mr king, for me its a battle between the 2 of them but for me if T,MURPHY gets it right this time his journey will not be wasted, might even try a cheeky f/c 5-10 @ tow 1st Jenny's gold 2nd shilpa. well done TOP CAT again cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franaganmc Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April Towcester 17:10 Nat hunt flat race. JENNY'S GOLD was last out 50 days ago and finished 2nd i remember T.MURPHY getting some stick for not being up with the pace early on in the race, he finished well and came in for 2nd place, T.MURPHY takes the trip again for this sole ride of the card HOWEVER so does choc Thornton for his guvnor Mr king, for me its a battle between the 2 of them but for me if T,MURPHY gets it right this time his journey will not be wasted, might even try a cheeky f/c 5-10 @ tow 1st Jenny's gold 2nd shilpa. Well done again TOP CAT cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOP CAT Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April Thank you Mr Murphy, sole ride, cheers to the beers, god i love this game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOP CAT Posted April 27, 2009 Share Posted April 27, 2009 Re: Best bet of the day Mon 27th April Newcastle 4-50pm - Floor Show I'm taking fitness on trust as he has run for over 200 days. There was a lot to like about his last run over todays trip. I'm banking on improvement, but think he's the sort to show it. One slight negative though. McMahon has only had two winners from his last 28 runners, although he's copped for no less than 9 seconds! Maybe he's due a change of fortune? Price around 7/1 - E.W. Nice work fella :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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