Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

[bowles10]

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Well not a great way to end my previous staking system. As per my post earlier in February i will now be moving to a new staking system using the following points range: 0-2pts 0.5pts will be the min bet with 2pts the max bet. I am hoping this will sort out a few demons i have still. March will be an interesting month with Cheltenham as i have a lot of bets at the festival. Multiples will be staked as before but will keep these to a minimum I dont set a bank as i like to keep to level stakes, each bet will be therefore in the range of 4 stakes only.

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Date : 3rd March 2011 Course & time: Taunton 3.20 Distance : 3m 110y Ground: G/S Selection: RED MILE 7/1 Hills Reasoning: Firstly, this one has been on my notes for a while as Emma mentioned it in her stable tour this season. 4 runs so far this season without getting its head in front however hasnt been baten much in those runs. Its last run when stepped up to this distance was fairly good although only managed 4th, was only 4.5L off the winner who was getting 7lb off the selection. I see this as an EW selection today. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Course & time : Ludlow 4.00 Distance : 3m Ground : Good Selection : THE SNAIL 14/1 Hills Reasoning : A decent chase for a midweek card with some well know handicappers taking part. My selection loves this place and won here 3 times last season over 2m 4f. However the horse has won ver 3m also. Still a bit high in the weights however back at this course, i am taking a chance especially with the trainers record here also. Big price 14/1 Bets: I am only looking at a double today and using the min stake of 0.5pts as a total stake for the bet. 0.25pt EW double 7/1 & 14/1 Hills

[bowles10]

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book I have added a couple of bets today for next week: NEPTUNE INVESTMENT NOVICES HURDLE SO YOUNG 7/2 BET365 NRNB - 0.5pt win Listened to the preview last night and this is the horse i took away from the evening. Will side step the Supreme Novices Hurdle for this race and its Irish form stands out. Possibly just has fellow irish challenger Oscars well to beat. I have a feeling the selection will start around 9/4 so although i have missed the 5/1 about earlier in the week, i will take the 7/2 now. -------------------------------------------------------------------- MULTIPLES 0.1PT WIN TRIXIE BINOCULAR - CHAMPION HURDLE - 3/1 Bet365 SO YOUNG - NEPTUNE - 7/2 Bet365 GREAT ENDEAVOUR - STEWART CHASE - 7/1 Bet365 2 of the above won at the festival last year and can go close again. 0.1PT EW 5 FOLD (my FUN BET!) KNIGHTS PASS - BUMPER - 8/1 SO YOUNG - NEPTUNE - 7/2 GRAND CRUS - WORLD - 2/1 AITEENTHIRTYTHREEE - RSA - 8/1 LONG RUN - GOLD CUP - 5/1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Sandown 3.00 Imperial cup Key trends 14/14 SP 16/1 or under 13/14 weight iunder 11st 6lb 11/14 2 career wins or less 13/14 2 or more runs that season 12/14 LTO Jan / Feb 11/14 2-4 runs that season 10/14 Placed or better LTO 10/14 under 10st 7lb 6/14 5yo 7/14 Fav 7/14 LTO 1st SP, weight, LTO in Jan/Feb, and 2 or more runs seem to be the key Eradicate, Alpine eagle, Tito Bustillo, The Betchworth Kid, Alarazi, Old Way is the shortlist placed or better LTO and under 10st 7lb whittles it down to Alarazi and Old Way will have both on my side tomorrow Bets OLD WAY 1/2pt win 20/1 Corals ALARAZI 1/2pt win 10/1 >Hills ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1.55 Sandown CUCUMBER RUN 8/1 Bet365 1/2Pt win Unless i am missing something but this loks a decent price, 7 runs, 3 wins and 3 seconds, Henderson trains, McCoy rides and ground / trip are ok. Yes, it's a competitve race but this horse has ridden in big fields before and can make an impact here. Was down to run next week and may still be seen on Friday however this is a decent prize to kick off Henderson's week. ---------------------------------------------------------------------

[bowles10]

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book RSA CHASE AITEENTHIRTYTHREE 1pt win - 8/1 >Bet365 I have just done this race and see this horse as exceptional value at 8/1. Personally i think it will start around 5/1 on Wednesday. The bookies have TFR short in the market due to its 2 wins so far this season but not having a run since 11th Dec is a massive negative for the favourite and 2/ is far too short. 1833 would become the first horse in 0 years apart from Denman to win this unbeaten over fences but Nicholls will know what he has and has already stated this horse is his next star and will line up in the Hennessey in November 2011. The race looks a fairly decent contest with 2 horses from Ireland merit respect but there are enough negatives across the entire field and i cant find anything wrong with this one.

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book My bets for Cheltenham which are mainly centred around my trends Day 1 - CHELTENHAM Race 1 Supreme novices hurdle 12/14 winners having won LTO 13/14 ran in Jan (3) or Feb (10) other winner ran in Nov. 12/14 had at least 3 runs that season. 13/14 had at least 2 wins that season 11/14 had ran 4 times or less that season. 3/13 Favs 8/13 Irish trained 1. Reducing the field Take the best 3 stats from above, LTO Jan / Feb, 1st LTO, & 2 wins this season leaves us with: Al Ferof, Gibb River, Recession Proof, So Young, Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre, Magens star, Marsh Warbler. Irish trained horses must be kept on side as they have a good record (bold above) The main profile is 3-4 runs and LTO in Feb which leaves us with: Al Ferof, Gibb River, Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre. 2. Consider the main contenders Looking at the favourite Cue Card, it has run 3 times so far over hurdles and won the Cheltenham bumper last year. However it raced LTO in December and therefore would have to overcome a 94 day absence. Only once has this race been won by a horse that ran in the Cheltenham bumper which was back in 2003 when Back in front won after coming 3rd in the Bumper. Another horse impacted by that stat is Al Ferof who finished 2nd in the bumper last year. Megastar, Hidden Universe and Dunraven Storm all finished down the field in that race. Al Ferof has had the required 4 runs and meets the stats apart from the bumper runm last season. A few horses come into the race unbeaten – Gibb River for Nicky Henderson who has won 3 races at Huntingdon, Plumpton and Wincanton. Spirit Son has won both races at Huntingdon and Exeter. Magens star has only had 2 runs and won both at Thurles and Clonmel. Sprinter Sacre hasn’t done much wrong to date and merits consideration after wins at Ascot and Ffos Las this year. 3. Other factors Average win odds for this race are over 12/1 for the last 10 years which included a 20/1 & 40/1 winner. Last year backed that up with Menorah coming home at 12/1. 4. Final analysis The bumper stat is a concern for both Cue Card and Al Ferof. The horses that do meet the trends are Gibb River, Sprinter Sacre and Spirit Son all 3 trained by Henderson! Looking at their bare form, Gibb River who is a former flat horse who has beaten what has been put in front of it to date in its 3 runs, the horse it beat LTO out has come out and won since however this is a massive step up but the stable want to see what the horse can do at this level and its possibly unexposed. Sprinter Sacre is National Hunt bred and was beaten into 2^nd by Frascati Park on its first race over timber. Has since won 2 races well and its a plus that the horse is French bred however hasn’t yet run on an undulating track which may find the horse out. Spirit Son is another French bred horse who has won on a course similar to this, Exeter. Demolished a decent Paul Nicholls horse last time out at Exeter and should go close here as 1^st choice from the stable. 5. Bets Gibb River 20/1 Paddy Power - 1/2pt win Spirit Son 11/2 Paddy Power - 1/2pt win If Cue card wins, money returned on PP offer Race 2 - Arkle chase Key Trends 9/14 won LTO 14/14 won or placed LTO 12/14 last ran Jan / Feb 12/14 won by 2nd, 3rd or 4th in betting behind favourite 1/14 won by favourite 5/14 French bred 6/14 5 - 6yo 11/14 more than 2 runs that season 12/14 2 or more wins that season 13/14 5 or less runs that season 1. Reducing the field Concentrating on the main trends, won or placed LTO, Jan/Feb last run, won by 2nd-4th in betting, 2 or more wins & 5 or less runs in the season. Taking the horses that ran in Jan/Feb LTO and were 1st or placed LTO, we have left: Captain Chris, Dan Breen, Finnians Rainbow, Giorgio Quercus, Medermit, Mikael D’Haguenet, Stagecoach Pearl, Realt Dubh. 2 or more wins and a lightly raced sort is the next cut off, which leaves: Finnans Rainbow, Giorgio Quercus, Medermit. 2. Consider the main contenders Top rated hurdlers normally run well in this and Medermit comes out the top of these on that basis. Finnans Rainbow was 5^th here last year in the Neptune Hurdle and has won all 3 chases this year so far, however has only beaten 10 horses in the process which is a concern when facing a much stronger field in this race. It does like to lead from the front. Ghizao hasn’t ran since end of December which also rates a negative for me as i prefer horses to have had a recent run. Wasn’t in the same frame as a hurdler as Medermit or Finnians Rainbow. Did beat Captain Chris last time out which looks decent form. Realt Dubh won a Grade 1 last time out albeit not the most difficult and would appreciate any decent ground conditions despite having good form on the soft. Rock Noir will like the ground and with McCoy on board could well make the frame here (McCoy has a great record in the race). It didn’t handle the Sandown fences too well but will be more suited to this track. 3. Other factors 2nd-4th in the betting is significant here as outsiders just don’t win but the fav has a very poor record also. 4. Final analysis The fav does have a poor record and it is close between 3, i hope Ghizao goes to favouritism and i will be happy with the final 3 on the trends, Medermit, Finnians Rainbow and Giorgio Quercus (ew). However with Medermit also vying for favouritism, i am swayed towards the other 2 only with Rock Noir also in for an EW bet. 5. Bets Finnians Rainbow 5/1 Bet365 - 0.7pt win Giorgio Quercus 28/1 Bet365 - 0.3pt win Rock Noir 5pts ew 14/1 Free Bet with Coral - 1pt win Race 3 William Hill Trophy Key trends 14/14 Class 3 race LTO or better 14/14 Best win Class 3 or better 13/14 10+ plus career runs 13/14 Aged 7 to 10 11/14 Jan/Feb LTO 13/14 23f+ win 13/14 2-5 runs this season 13/14 Wins / Runs 20% or better in whole career 11/14 10st 11lb or less 11/14 4+ course runs 1/14 FAvs 1/14 over 11st 2lb 1. Reducing the field The trends here are very strong and we can narrow the field now with the help of the main trends, leaving us with: Taking the 23f+ win we remove Great Endeavour, Tatenan, Bensalem, Crescent Island, Reve De Sivola, Quantativeeasing, Sunnyhillboy, Swing bill, The Rainbow Hunter, Safari adventures, Frankie Anson, Le Burf, Chief Dan George, Far More serious, The Sawyer, , Ballyvesey. Definity. Rare Bob, Gentle Ranger, The Sliotar, Carrickmines, No Panic, Quattrocentro. The favoured final profile has to be the 4+ course runs as horses are often campaigned here in previous years. This leaves the following: Blazing Bailey, Fair along, Exmoor Ranger, Razor Royale, Den of Iniquity, Wolf Moon. The final cut would be to remove those above 11st 2lb which leaves: Razor Royale, Den of Iniquity, Wolf Moon. 2. Consider the main contenders We should look at those horse that run well at the course and have 1-2 as last time out. Blazing Bailey tops the card and loves the festival and Cheltenham however a mark of 153 may be beyond it these days. Only 9yo so don’t rule out after 2 wins this season so far. Great Endeavour was 2^nd last time out and won here at the festival last year. Should go very well in this as obviously laid out for the race by Pipe. Bensalem is another horse that has course form but i always feel this horse has the odd bad jump in it. Reve De Sivola likes it here also but has yet it can run over 3m at this level. Sunnyhillboy is another horse that i am unsure whether it will get the 3m trip. 3. Other factors Wichita Lineman was the 1st winning favourite for over 10 years in 2009. 4. Final analysis The trends are pushing me towards Razor Royale and Wolf Moon which are both good prices however i don’t think you can overlook Great Endeavour here. Alan King will think he has the race won with Blazing Bailey keeping the weights down for Bensalem. 5. Bets Great Endeavour 6/1 Bet365 - 1pt win Wolf Moon 14/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win Razor Royale 25/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win Race 4 - Champion Hurdle Key trends 12/14 (85%) won last time out with the others finishing 2nd & 3rd 10/14 (71%) won a graded race LTO (5 @ Gr1, 3 @ Gr2 & 2@ Gr3) 14/14 (100%) ran LTO in Jan or Feb 4/14 (28%) won AIG champion hurdle in Ireland before the festival 10/14 (71%) had 4 or more runs in the season 7/14 (50%) came into the race seeking a hat trick 12/14 (85%) had previous festival form 9/14 (64%) had won at a previous festival 12/14 (85%) were aged 6 to 8 11/14 (78%) were priced 10/1 or lower 1/14 (7%) were 5yo (katchit) 7/14 (50%) were irish trained 5/14 (35%) were favs 1. Reducing the field The LTO stat again would appear to be key, horses that finished in the 1st 3 LTO. This removes Barizan, Clerks Choice, Cristal Bonus, Get me out of here, Khyber Kim, Overturn, Salden Licht, Silviniaco Conti, Soldatino, Solix, Sublimity, Walkon, ZaYNAR The Jan/Feb stat would remove Cue card, Menorah. Previous festival form and ages 6-8 are 2 stats to consider also leaving: Binocular, Blackstairmountain, Dunguib, Oscar whiskey, Peddlars Cross, Starluck, Thousand Stars 2. Consider the main contenders Khyber Kim is a horse that merits respect but again i am concerned over the absence from December which also cast doubts over Menorah for me both having not run since the Cheltenham meeting in December, both horses may be capable of running well fresh but the festival stats are against it. Last years winner Binocular deserves to be favourite and really impressed at Kempton for me. It was a bit of a dud race last time out at sandown, however i am sure the horse will be thereabouts again on a course where it has run to the top of its ability each time. Could well win for the 2^nd year running. Hurricane Fly is the one everyone hyped up following its high profile absence from previous festivals. I discount based on the fact it hasn’t raced here before and all form is centred around Solwhit who also flopped here last season. Peddlars Cross is a lovely horse and has yet to be beaten in its career. This is a serious horse and i cant believe it is still around 13/2 for a bet. Dunguib is the other one who could spring a surprise here if the horse can act round here. Wasn’t ridden well last year when a hot fav for the supreme novices. 3. Other factors Last 4 winners have been priced at 22/1, 10/1, 9/1 & 8/1. 4. Final analysis With the surprise omission of Binocular this leaves the race open for Peddlars Cross in my opinion. This horse is very gutsy and will not give up without a fight in the closing stages. I still cant have Hurricane Fly at all but Dunguib may be the one EW now. 5. Bets Peddlars Cross 9/2 >Bet365 - 1pt win Dunguib 10/1 >Bet365 - 1/2pt win 5.15 Centenary Novices Chase A new race so nothing really for me to go on however there are 3 horses i do like, Quantativeasing 5th in the Coral Cup last year and Tullamore Dew 2nd in that race both have an equal chnace for me. I seem to recall a Plumpton bonus to win a race at plumpton and the festival and the Gifford team may have their eye on that for T Dew. Henderson has a few in this and Quanatativeeasing would be his best chance. The best outsider for me is Vino Griego from Moore's stable. Grat form behind THe Giant Bolster here last time, a repeat of that could see this one at least in the frame. 8th in the Supreme last year behind Menorah. Bets Quantativeeasing 9/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win Tullamore Dew 8/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win Vino Griego 22/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win

[peteg40]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Good research there Rob, good luck today hope your hard work pays off for you :hope:ok

[whoisthatman]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Bowles, The depth of research and amount of work that goes into your tips is first class. I tip my cap to you. You are providing an absolute first class service. All the very best for your festival! Thanks, Gareth

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Thanks Guys, its my favourite meeting of the year and hope the stats stand up this year. Captain Chris met a number of trends but didnt make my shortlist Hoping the winners are not far away after 2 seconds.

[whoisthatman]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Bowles10 I take it all back!!:ok

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

My bets for Cheltenham which are mainly centred around my trends Day 1 - CHELTENHAM Race 1 Supreme novices hurdle Gibb River 20/1 Paddy Power - 1/2pt win - unpl Spirit Son 11/2 Paddy Power - 1/2pt win - 2nd If Cue card wins, money returned on PP offer Race 2 - Arkle chase Finnians Rainbow 5/1 Bet365 - 0.7pt win - 2nd Giorgio Quercus 28/1 Bet365 - 0.3pt win - unpl Rock Noir 5pts ew 14/1 Free Bet with Coral - 1pt win - unpl Race 3 >William Hill Trophy Great Endeavour 6/1 Bet365 - 1pt win - fell Wolf Moon 14/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win - unpl Razor Royale 25/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win - unpl Race 4 - Champion Hurdle Peddlars Cross 9/2 >Bet365 - 1pt win - 2nd Dunguib 10/1 >Bet365 - 1/2pt win - unpl 5.15 Centenary Novices Chase Quantativeeasing 9/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win - 2nd Tullamore Dew 8/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win - 3rd Vino Griego 22/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win - 4th

4 seconds, a third and a fourth from my selections today. Had some decent chances at the last fence and fairly pleased with my effort despite no return. Day 1 13 bets Staked 7pts Returned 0pts

[RussP]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

4 seconds, a third and a fourth from my selections today. Had some decent chances at the last fence and fairly pleased with my effort despite no return. Day 1 13 bets Staked 7pts Returned 0pts

Unlucky today Rob. Don't want to add to your woe but I think it's 8pts staked, not 7 (although not sure whether that free bet was on the 5pts EW and/or the 1pt win:unsure). :ok

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

Unlucky today Rob. Don't want to add to your woe but I think it's 8pts staked, not 7 (although not sure whether that free bet was on the 5pts EW and/or the 1pt win:unsure). :ok

yep, its 8pts but only 7pts staked as 1pt was a free bet. Sorry the 5pts ew was left on from my trends, meant to delete that part!

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book My Bets for the 2nd day below, based mainly around my trends Day 2 Race 1 National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup Key trends 13/14 1st or 2nd over 3m (chase) 12/14 1st 4 LTO 11/14 4+ times over fences 12/14 4+ runs in season 11/14 aged 7-9 1/14 Favs 5/14 25/1 SP or higher 4+ runs in the season & 1st 4 LTO firstly leaves us with: Alfa beat, Arabella boy, Be there in five, C'est ca, Cannington Brook, Captain Americo, Chamirey, Fredo, Galaxy Rock, Magnanimity, Some target 1st or 2nd over 3m (chase) is another key stat leaving: Alfa beat, Arabella boy, Be there in five, Cannington Brook, Captain Americo, Chamirey, Galaxy Rock, Some target. Aged 7-9 removes Arabella Boy (6yo) so its down to the last stat of 4+ times over fences leaving: Alfa beat, Be There in Five, Cannington Brook, Captain Americo, Chamirey, Galaxy rock, Some Target 2. Consider the main contenders Alfa Beat has won its last 5 races, has form over 3m which is essential in this marathon contest, key to this horse is decent ground and should get it here if they keep the water off. Its a worry though that the horse comes here after a 182 day absence. There is no evidence it will be best fresh. Beshabar was a reasonable hurdler last year but its lack of experience over fences will tell here, only 2 outings and unseated on one of them, i would be concerned it wont get round here. Chicago Grey meets most of the trends although doesnt figure in the final shortlist due to ots 5th place LTO, looking at its cheltenham form though, you would be mad to overlook this one. 3. Other factors As with other Cheltenham races, course form can manage the field down a bit as well. Cannington Brook, Chamirey, Galaxy Rock have the Cheltenham runs in thier locker. 4. Final analysis 2 trends i always like to have on my side are LTO win and a decent course run. The nearest horse to meet that trend is Chamirey. 5. Bets Chicago Grey 5/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win Chamirey 18/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 2.05 Neptune Novices Hurdle Key trends 14/14 Won or placed LTO 13/14 1st or 2nd LTO 13/14 top 6 in betting 14/14 Jan or Feb LTO 13/14 age 5 or 6 10/14 won LTO 9 of last 11 ran in graded company LTO 1. Reducing the field Take LTO 1st/2nd aged 5 or 6 & LTO in Jan Feb. Accordingtolaurence, Al Ferof, Ballyhaunis, Bobs Worth, Court in Motion, Highland Valley, Minella Class, Oscars well, Our Island, Rock on ruby, Sinbad the sailor, So Young, Tornado Bob, Zaidpour. Take out the rags in terms of prices leaves Al Ferof, Bobs worth, Court in motion, Minella class, Oscars well, Rock on Ruby, So Young, Tornado Bob and Zaidpour. Graded company looks the best final method of choosing final selections so this removes Al Ferof, Minella Class, So Young, Tornado Bob. 2. Consider the main contenders So Young has been well touted for this race and deemed to be the best of the irish challengers, however the horse hasn’t beaten anything of note so far. Ruby Walsh fancies this horse strongly and a number of people have napped it. Bobs Worth has won 2 trial races this year at Cheltenham and therefore is exposed to the fact we know it likes the trip and the course. This will be much tougher however beat Rock on Ruby last time which looks decent form. Oscars well seems to want a bit of cut in the ground and will drift from its current price, i would want about 5/1 to make this horse any value. Does have the graded form to win this race. 3. Other factors Henderson has never won this race and Nicholls recent record is 1 place from 6 entries. 4. Final analysis Bobs worth, Oscars well, Court in Motion and Rock on Ruby made the final cut on the trends, however only Oscars and Rock on Ruby are declared now so will go with both. Nicholls has a poor record in the race but something has to take on the irish! 5. Bets Oscars well - no bet yet Rock on Ruby 7/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win So Young (already advised 1/2pt win 7/2 Bet365) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 2.35 Royal & SA Chase Key trends 14/14 1st or 2nd LTO 10/13 rated 134 or lower over hurdles 14/14 ran jan / feb LTO 13/14 3-5 runs this season 12/14 NH bred 4/14 Favs 2/14 unbeaten over fences 1. Reducing the field LTO stats rule again and the 3-5 runs is significant with horses having had a reasonably busy campaign as it is difficult to lay a horse out for this race. Aiteenthirtythree, Bostons Angel, Jessie’s Dream, Magnamity, Master of the hall, Quito de la roque, The Giant Bolster, Wayward Prince, Wymott. Those unbeaten are 2 from 4 so this removes Aiteenthirtythree, Wayward Prince, Wymott. This leaves Bostons Angel, Jessies’s Dream, Magnamity, Master of the hall, Quito de la roque, The Giant Bolster. Alla re NH bred, so this is the final shortlist. 2. Consider the main contenders Time for Rupert is undoubtedly the best horse in the race based on its 2 chases this season, it is a worry that the horse hasn’t run since December for me, in previous seasons the horse had had more runs than this at this stage and the 3 month gap is too much in my opinion. Horses win this race after being on the go all season, Bostons angel may be found out by the trip having decent form over 20f. Master of the Hall looks to have a decent chance but is it better on a flat course, will be in the shake up if acting on it. The Giant Bolster has Cheltenham form but at 6yo is possibly just too young to bag this. Aiteenthirtythree would be the first unbeaten horse since Denman in the last 10 years to win, however has followed a similar route as Denman so must have a chance here. 3. Other factors 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 7 which is a stand out stat, this is from 54 runs and 8yo’s have won 1 from 26 runs. 4. Final analysis Following the trends, i would have Quito de la roque, Master of the Hall and i would also retain Aiteen thirttythree. Time for Rupert is discounted on the negatives about the absence and for Jessie’s Dream on age (8yo). Quito does not run. 5. Bets Master of the Hall 16/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win Aiteenthirtythree (already advised 1pt win 8/1 Bet365) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Champion Chase Key Trends 8/10 Won LTO 7/10 Top 2 in betting 7/10 Won at the festival 9/10 Ran LTO within 2 months 4/10 Favs 10/10 French or Irish bred 9/10 Under 11/1 SP Remove Cornas, French Opera, I'm so lucky as neither are IRE or FR bred. Remove Woolacombe Folly as hasnt raced for 95 days and Captain Cee Bee 77 days. Won LTO is always a stat i follow which leaves Golden Silver & Master Minded to fight this one out. Master Minded is going for a 3rd win in the race and should go very close at a nice price, it was odds on last year! Bets Master Minded 4.3 Betfair - 1pt win ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 4.0 Coral Cup Key trends 12/14 top two thirds of h'cap 12/14 5-8 yo 11/14 3+ runs in the season 10/14 Jan / feb LTO 8/14 1st LTO 1/14 fav 1. Reducing the field For a handicap the stat of 1st LTO still figures highly as does a recent run a Those in the top two thirds of the handicap are key to this race. Firstly only look at the top two thirds, so thats everything with 10st 2lb upwards, leaves us with horses 1-18. The 3+ runs and 5-8yo is the next to consider leaves us with only Solix, Battle Group, CArlito Brigante, Bothy, Pistolet Noir, Orsipus, Tiger O’Toole, For non stop, Ballyhaunis, Busker Royal. ok, lets keep to the Jan/Feb LTO stat to leave a final shortlist, leaves: Solix, Battle Group, Carlito Brigante, Bothy, Pistolet Noir, Tiger o’Toole, Ballyhaunis, and Busker Royal. 2. Consider the main contenders Aegean Dawn was pulled out of the Imperial Cup last weekend and if lining up here would have a chance with the Mile Chief form-line looking really good, however not having run since Nov is a negative for me. Call the Police has form but only on heavy ground in Ireland, this will be much faster. Bothy ran Menorah to a nk at the beginning of the season getting nearly 2 stone however thats a decent form line as well and its recent second ^{in the Tote Gold Trophy again shows the horse can handle itself in these type of races. For non stop has the Cheltenham form after its 2nd to Grand Crus here in December. Was beaten into 4th over xmas but in front of it in 3rd was Al Ferof who won the Supreme Novices today. 3. Other factors to consider LTO winners have a decent return here with 8 from last 14 winners coming from that bracket. All of the last 10 winners had won at least once in last 4 races. 4. Final analysis Taking all the trends into account, Solix, Battle Group, Carlito Brigante, Tiger o’Toole, Ballyhaunis. The form lines of the favourites are there to be seen but they haven’t been seen for a while so i am happy to stick with the trends for the final selections here apart from Solix who finished 7th LTO whereas the other horses had won or placed. 5. Bets Battle Group 46.0 Betfair - 1/2pt win Carlito Brigante 20/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win Tiger O’toole 25/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win Balyhaunis 14/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4.40 Fred Winter Hcap Hurdle 3/6 French Breds 6/6 Ran LTO Feb/Mar 5/6 1st LTO 5/6 3 or more runs 3/6 Exactly 3 runs 6/6 OR 120+ 5/6 Weight under 11st 4lb 2/6 Weight under 11st 3/6 Favs (was joint) Only 6 runnings of the race to date but some clear trends coming through now. LTO stats match up with most of the Cheltenham races. Looking for something gaining at least 120 OR & had 3 or more runs and ran Feb/Mar LTO & won LTO. This whittles it down to 3 contenders. Whitby Jack 11-4 Paintball 10-9 Kayef 10-6 We have to go by the weight stat as over 80% of winners have carried less than 11st 4lb. Celtus is the only other one i have heard god reports about and will be included. Play on all of these 4. Bets Celtus 11/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win Whitby Jack 12/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win Paintball 8/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win Kayef 22/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win}

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

My Bets for the 2nd day below' date= based mainly around my trends Day 2 Race 1 National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup 5. Bets Chicago Grey 5/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win :clap 3pts Chamirey 18/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 2.05 Neptune Novices Hurdle 5. Bets Oscars well - no bet yet Rock on Ruby 7/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win So Young (already advised 1/2pt win 7/2 Bet365) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 2.35 Royal & SA Chase 5. Bets Master of the Hall 16/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win Aiteenthirtythree (already advised 1pt win 8/1 Bet365) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Champion Chase Bets Master Minded 4.3 Betfair - 1pt win ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 4.0 Coral Cup ^{5. Bets Battle Group 46.0 Betfair - 1/2pt win Carlito Brigante 20/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win - 1st :clap 11pts Tiger O’toole 25/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win Balyhaunis 14/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4.40 Fred Winter Hcap Hurdle Bets Celtus 11/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win Whitby Jack 12/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win Paintball 8/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win Kayef 22/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win}

Round up from yesterday, 2 winners for me, so back on track 15 bets 2 winners 8 1/2 Pts staked 14 pts returned

[Aykay1]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book :clap

[whoisthatman]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Bowles, superb tipping again yesterday! I took a lot of your tips at each way yesterday and ended the day a long way up! Thank you very much!

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Thanks Guys, onto Day 3! Race 2 - 2.05 Pertemps Final Key trends 14/14 aged 6-9 12/14 ran over 26 days ago 11/14 won over 3m or further 12/14 carried 11st 2lb or less 8/14 won LTO 2/14 favs 1. Reducing the field Age stat & the LTO since last run stat & the weight are those to look at first Remove: Knockara Beau, Working title, Duke of Lucca, Mobaasher, Essex, Buena Vista, Barwell Bridge, Rivage D’or, Son amix, Dont push it, Queiros Bleu Those who have won over 3m are : Michael Flips, Kayf aramis, Lush life, Barafundle, Mr Moonshine, Tarablaze, Viking Blond, 2. Consider the main contenders Sivota has been well touted from Ireland since the weekend and could start favourite in this normally open contest. It has form on mainly a softer surface which may be against it here. It does boast a 22f win. Chartreux is very lightly raced and comes here with a good chance but could lack for experience. Barafundle hasn’t been seen for a while and that is a concern again. Buena Vista runs well here and is back off same mark as last year when winning this race, could be the surprise in the field after some mediocre runs earlier this season. 3. Other factors to consider Unbelievably, course winners are 0 from 49 in this race and that stat possibly should be taken into consideration. 3. Final analysis Michael Flips always runs well here, and should be in the shake up again. Barafundle form is mainly on flat tracks and may not act here. Lush Life was impressive in December when winning here over 3m, however the stat of course winners removes that one. Tarablaze comes from a yard that produces Cheltenham winners and should be kept on side after coming back from chasing. Mr Moonshine has some reasonable form and seems better on soft ground. Kayf aramis and Viking Blond represent an out of form stable so will be avoided. 4. Bets Michael Flips 20/1 Bet365 1/2pt win Tarablaze 20/1 Bet365 1/2pt win Race 3 - 2.40 Ryanair chase 6 runnings of this race so far 6/6 age 6-10 4/6 Sp under 5/1 5/6 won or placed LTO 5/6 JAn/Feb LTO 6/6 Graded race LTO 6/6 2-4 runs in season 6/6 Course winner 1. Reducing the field Course winners aged 6-10 with LTO in a graded race are the key stats so far leaving: Albertas Run, Captain Cee Bee, Gauvain, Hey Big Spender, Poquelin, Tartak, Voy Pur Ustedes The horses that have had 2-4 runs are: Albertas run, Captain Cee Bee, Gauvain, Poquelin, Tartak Won or placed LTO leaves Gauvain, Poquelin only 2. Consider the main contenders Poquelin likes it here and boasts a record of 1-2-1-2-5-1 in the last 2 seasons here. Price looks plenty short enough at around 5/2. The 96 day absence also puts me off. Kalahari King has no doubt been laid out for the race and has to go for this race now as its stamina will be key. I am not always sure it finds enough and in this class field, i have a few doubts it may not quite get there. Jy'Vole was 3rd in this race last year and does stand another chance of going close. Last years winner Albertas Run sets the standard and i would rather it be in better form than currently showing. 3. Final analysis Poquelin & Gauvain meet all the trends but its the absence of Poquelin that worries me. I will leave it in though and give it a favs chance in this race, i also like Tartak of the others. Last years winner Albertas Run could surprise but with those form figures, i am leaving it out. 4. Bets Poquelin 5/2 Bet365 – 1/2pt win Gauvain 12/1 Bet365 – 1/2pt win Race 4 - 3.20 World Hurdle Key Trends 13/14 6-8yo's 14/14 1st 4 LTO 12/14 in 1st 4 all season 13/14 SP 15/2 or shorter 12/14 raced 3 times or fewer in season 12/14 1st or 2nd LTO 12/14 Previous festival runners 4/14 favs 1/14 5yo's or 9yo's 0/14 irish winners 1. Reducing the field 1st 4 all season, 6-8yo's, raced 3 times or fewer Big Bucks, Grand Crus, Mourad, Zaynar Taking into account previous festival runners and those 1st or 2nd LTO Big Bucks won this last year and 1st LTO Grand Crus has won at Cheltenham but never ran at the festival and 1^st LTO Mourad was 3^rd in the Triumph in 2009 and was 1^st LTO Zaynar was 3^rd in the Champion Hurdle last season and was 4^th LTO 2. Final Analysis Its an easy one with Big bucks the stand out horse on the Trends. I wont look any further. I would expect the 1-2-3 to be Big Bucks, Grand Crus and Mourad. 3. Bets Big Bucks/Grand Crus/Mourad 1/2pt straight trifecta Tote Race 5 - Festival Plate Key trends 14/14 won at class 3 or higher 13/14 carried 10st 12lb or lower 13/14 ran within 40 days 12/14 rated no higher than 141 11/14 12/1 SP or over 12/14 1st 5 LTO 11/14 ran at a previous festival 5/14 1st LTO 5/14 Pipe trained 0/14 irish winners 1/14 Favs 1. Reducing the field some quite strong trends here with the 1st 3 trends leaving this shortlist of horses (irish trained horses removed also) Holmwood Legend, Peplum, Just snudge, Aimigayle, Storymaker, Boble Lord, I’m a Legend Those in 1st 5 LTO are: Holmwood legend, Peplum, Bible Lord, I’m a Legend The SP stat could be another reduction factor as can the previous run at the festival before so: Horses that have ran at a previous festival is Bible Lord from the shortlist Avoid Headgear, top 4 in the betting and top 4 in the weights. 2. Final analysis Concerns me that a lack of horses meet the final trends as they are very strong in this race. Bible Lord will have to be a bet as it survived the shortlist cut. I also like Peplum although its a concern that it only raced 5 days ago. I’m a Legend has a very low weight but does have headgear which is a poor stat. Quartz de Thaix meets a number of trends and i will leave that one in also. 3. Bets Bible Lord 33/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win Peplum 28/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win Quartz de thaix 13/2 Bet365 - 1/2pt win Race 6 - Kim Muir Chase Key trends 12/14 aged 8-10 11/14 carried less than 11st 2lb after jockey claims 9/14 ran within 25 days of the race 2/14 Favs 7/14 priced 16/1 or higher 7/14 1st / 2nd LTO Highest RPR 149 Lowest RPR 124 9yo’s have a good record & those who ran over 3m + LTO 1. Reducing the field Difficult trends this one leaving Richards Sundance, Dance Island, Mostly Bob, Junior, Palypso De Creek, Khachaturian, Pomme Tiepy, Teddys Reflection 2. Final Analysis I prefer to follow horses that have finished close up on their last start so lets go to 5 places to get a final list – Dance Island, Junior, Khachaturian, Teddys Reflection. Remove Dance Island as the higher weights struggle here. 3. Bets Junior 6/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win Khachaturian 30.0 Betfair - 1/2pt win Teddys Reflection 70.0 Betfair - 1/2pt win

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book 2.05 Cheltenham Anyone who has seen my Jumps diary will see that i have tracked Buena Vista to the festival. I often try to do this with a few horses however this one became quite obvious the 1st time i saw it run earlier in the season. I have seen how the jocks basically managed to keep it out of the 1st 6 to get its mark down. Now down to 138 with a 5lb claimer on board. I am having a max bet of 2pts on the horse. I have 20/1 with Bet365 for 1pt and will put the other 1pt on the place market with Betfair which i received as a free matching bet. Bets Buena Vista 1pt win 20/1 Bet365 Buena Vista 1pt place 5.6 Betfair

[StuSimmy]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

2.05 Cheltenham Anyone who has seen my Jumps diary will see that i have tracked Buena Vista to the festival. I often try to do this with a few horses however this one became quite obvious the 1st time i saw it run earlier in the season. I have seen how the jocks basically managed to keep it out of the 1st 6 to get its mark down. Now down to 138 with a 5lb claimer on board. I am having a max bet of 2pts on the horse. I have 20/1 with Bet365 for 1pt and will put the other 1pt on the place market with Betfair which i received as a free matching bet. Bets Buena Vista 1pt win 20/1 Bet365 Buena Vista 1pt place 5.6 Betfair

Take a bow bowles, take a bow! :nana:nana:nana

[mowgli77]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Well done Bowlesy. :clap I know you mentioned this other night. I thought I had backed it single so I was cheering it on :tongue2 but then realised I don't actually have it in a single :( but in doubles and trebles with Grands Crus and Junior. Keep your fingers crossed for a Pipe double or treble because it's one hell of a return if it comes in. :hope

[devil tish]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book absolutely fantastic mate:notworthy £50 at 24.0 on betfair!! i owe you a few pints mate:clap :nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:nana

[whoisthatman]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book Unbelievable Bowles10, you're like the Oracle! Do you have a crystal ball?

[mowgli77]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

Well done Bowlesy. :clap I know you mentioned this other night. I thought I had backed it single so I was cheering it on :tongue2 but then realised I don't actually have it in a single :( but in doubles and trebles with Grands Crus and Junior. Keep your fingers crossed for a Pipe double or treble because it's one hell of a return if it comes in. :hope

I owe you a pint, got the double in at 20-1 and 5-1. The treble would have paid a fortune if Grands Crus had won. :ok Hope you had a good day, I've had a belter. :)

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book :notworthy:ok

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

I owe you a pint' date=' got the double in at 20-1 and 5-1. The treble would have paid a fortune if Grands Crus had won. :ok Hope you had a good day, I've had a belter. :)[/quote'] no probs Phil, glad a few listened to my ramblings, it doesnt always come off does it i had a cross doubles bet on Pipes today & incl BV and Junior, so got a nice double out of it great day :beer

[bowles10]

Re: Bowles' "live" Monthly betting book

Thanks Guys' date= onto Day 3! Race 2 - 2.05 Pertemps Final Michael Flips 20/1 Bet365 1/2pt win Tarablaze 20/1 Bet365 1/2pt win Race 3 - 2.40 Ryanair chase Poquelin 5/2 Bet365 – 1/2pt win Gauvain 12/1 Bet365 – 1/2pt win Race 4 - 3.20 World Hurdle 3. Bets Big Bucks/Grand Crus/Mourad 1/2pt straight trifecta Tote :nana 1-2-3 paid 11pts Race 5 - Festival Plate Bible Lord 33/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win Peplum 28/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win Quartz de thaix 13/2 Bet365 - 1/2pt win Race 6 - Kim Muir Chase Junior 6/1 Bet365 - 1/2pt win - 1st :nana 3.5pts Khachaturian 30.0 Betfair - 1/2pt win Teddys Reflection 70.0 Betfair - 1/2pt win

2.05 Cheltenham Anyone who has seen my Jumps diary will see that i have tracked Buena Vista to the festival. I often try to do this with a few horses however this one became quite obvious the 1st time i saw it run earlier in the season. I have seen how the jocks basically managed to keep it out of the 1st 6 to get its mark down. Now down to 138 with a 5lb claimer on board. I am having a max bet of 2pts on the horse. I have 20/1 with Bet365 for 1pt and will put the other 1pt on the place market with Betfair which i received as a free matching bet. Bets Buena Vista 1pt win 20/1 Bet365 - 1st :nana 21pts Buena Vista 1pt place 5.6 Betfair - 1st :nana 5.3pts

Had one of my best Cheltenham days today. I had another bet which didnt get posted which also won so well happy with the lot today. Cheltenham takes a lot of my time and so glad it pays off Staked 7.5pts Returned 40.8pts