The 2009 Grand National

[Gingertipster]

Re: The 2009 Grand National Great result. I don't see the need to tear up the form book just because there is a 100/1 winner. There are always reasons for a result and there was no fluke about it. Ran a promising race on reappearance before improving to win a competitive Cheltenham handicap. Then started favourite in the Welsh National soon afterwards. Jumped in to a rival who had made a mistake. Did well considering he lost a lot of ground. Then ran over hurdles (better over fences) when second. Disappointed in the Blue Square on his fifth run in eleven weeks. Had a month off before running poorly last time out. IF there was a reason for that run he had a good chance. A proven stayer; if you think he was improving when running in the Welsh National and had excuses since (apart from that I know of, last time); in hindsight there are reasons for the win. Great result, just a shame I backed the second and third, win only! Don't feel too sorry for me though, as I did make a good profit on all three days at Aintree. Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Re: The 2009 Grand National Aiden was on Stan (imo) because it is his favourite horse. Propelled his racing career in to be the best up and coming jockeys there is. Jockeys can be loyal. Ginge

[mileni4uk]

Re: The 2009 Grand National Main thing is the trainer!! Venetia is a real handicap specialist now. When she has horses well handicapped and is on form, then she can win good races. Proved that at Cheltenham and today too.

[mattmcandrew]

Re: The 2009 Grand National The family had £2.50 e/w on Mon Mone on the tote, paid out 157/1. I hope people like Newsboy take it all back about Cerium as well. He's a horse who has been laid off for a long time and to be talked about like he is a bit of trash, in both his Gold Cup and Grand National columns, I think is a bit disgraceful. He ran an absolutely heroic race and those people (if there were any) that backed him each way at 500/1 yesterday will get paid in some places for that fifth place effort. Newsboy makes me cringe a little actually. It's all well and good to give a horse no chance, but you can't keep criticising the horse and the trainer. I would hope to hear some kind of apology, but...that'll be the day.

[Gingertipster]

Re: The 2009 Grand National Strange thing is Venittia is not in as good form as she was at Cheltenham. I made Cerium a 2000/1 chance in my 100% book. I was wrong, as I was with Mon Mome, thinking he was a 200/1 shot. Then again, that is in hindsight and given the same form going in to the race I'd probably make the same "mistake" again. Shame Mon Mome was not available at 300/1.

[billy the punter]

Re: The 2009 Grand National

Aiden was on Stan (imo) because it is his favourite horse. Propelled his racing career in to be the best up and coming jockeys there is. Jockeys can be loyal. Ginge

Aiden said (yesterday) he made the decision because there was a "chance" that the National fences would perk him up and improve him he said he'd rather take a chance on Stan, to me it implied that Mon Mome was thought to have little chance - why else would he "gamble" and take the ride on a 100/1 shot (Stan)? Of course the form book needs to be ripped up. The results all meeting have been odd, perhaps it's a result of the ground/watering? Who knows. For this horse to carry 11stone and win so easily is impossible (well not obviously, but you know what I mean!), I backed and tipped this horse for the Welsh National and will be the first to say if I had 30 picks I still would not have backed him. Well beaten last year off a lower mark, beaten a distance in the midlands national etc. I thought the reason for the Welsh National flop was the fact that the run came too quick (15 days after Cheltenham win), but there had been sufficent time between his recent starts yet there had been no improvement. The horse does jump though, but with so many finishers you would think that compelting alone would not be enough. The manner of the victory just proves to me that this was a pure freak result. Have you ever seen so many horses in contention 2 out? If he went into the race after his Cheltenham win then he would've been backable, but ingorning so many below par efforts since was illogical. A fantastic performance by Big Fella Thanks on his 7th chase start and Comply Or Die in 2nd. :ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: The 2009 Grand National

Aiden said (yesterday) he made the decision because there was a "chance" that the National fences would perk him up and improve him he said he'd rather take a chance on Stan, to me it implied that Mon Mome was thought to have little chance - why else would he "gamble" and take the ride on a 100/1 shot (Stan)? Of course the form book needs to be ripped up. The results all meeting have been odd, perhaps it's a result of the ground/watering? Who knows. For this horse to carry 11stone and win so easily is impossible (well not obviously, but you know what I mean!), I backed and tipped this horse for the Welsh National and will be the first to say if I had 30 picks I still would not have backed him. Well beaten last year off a lower mark, beaten a distance in the midlands national etc. I thought the reason for the Welsh National flop was the fact that the run came too quick (15 days after Cheltenham win), but there had been sufficent time between his recent starts yet there had been no improvement. The horse does jump though, but with so many finishers you would think that compelting alone would not be enough. The manner of the victory just proves to me that this was a pure freak result. Have you ever seen so many horses in contention 2 out? If he went into the race after his Cheltenham win then he would've been backable, but ingorning so many below par efforts since was illogical. A fantastic performance by Big Fella Thanks on his 7th chase start and Comply Or Die in 2nd. :ok

Billy, As I said Stan was the horse that propelled him in to a top claiming jockey. He therefore had a lofty (false) impression of the horse. When a horse has won a jockey top races before, he is inclined to believe in him too much. How would Aiden have felt had he deserted his favourite horse and seen Stan win the National? I rated Mon Mome's chance better than Stan, as the latter had little chance of staying the trip. You say it was impossible for Mon Mome to win but then explain why he should win. I too have tipped and backed him more than once this year. In a race where Rambling Minster missed the break so ran poorly. My Will made numerous mistakes and ran better than his third position suggests. Butlers Cabin ran poorly too. Then, taking that in to account there is no reason why the result can not be believed. May be Mon Mome just does not run well for claimer Will Biddick who rode him last time. Because other than that run there were valid excuses. So don't rip up your form book just yet Billy. Surely anyone who knows their true odds table (as you do) knows outsiders can win. Ginge

[fintron]

Re: The 2009 Grand National Some of the trends were broken I suppose but this was freak result and a horrible result for the punters. How many times has a 100/1 horse won the race? I think i've only seen one person on here mention it and no-one I've spoken to was on it, never saw any tipsters in any of the papers mention it. The thing with Mon Mome is that although he was French bred he had actually a good second to his name over 29f so you could have looked over the French bred trend with common sense. I didn't and stuck to them by the letter, and would never have picked that one out. The racing today has been horrible though. It started off badly at Lingfield with Gosden's odds on shot getting done over and the results at Aintree have been horrific - not only was there the 100/1 shot, there was two 66/1 winners too wasn't they, and a 16/1 in the first.

[billy the punter]

Re: The 2009 Grand National

Billy, As I said Stan was the horse that propelled him in to a top claiming jockey. He therefore had a lofty (false) impression of the horse. When a horse has won a jockey top races before, he is inclined to believe in him too much. How would Aiden have felt had he deserted his favourite horse and seen Stan win the National? I rated Mon Mome's chance better than Stan, as the latter had little chance of staying the trip. You say it was impossible for Mon Mome to win but then explain why he should win. I too have tipped and backed him more than once this year. In a race where Rambling Minster missed the break so ran poorly. My Will made numerous mistakes and ran better than his third position suggests. Butlers Cabin ran poorly too. Then, taking that in to account there is no reason why the result can not be believed. May be Mon Mome just does not run well for claimer Will Biddick who rode him last time. Because other than that run there were valid excuses. So don't rip up your form book just yet Billy. Surely anyone who knows their true odds table (as you do) knows outsiders can win. Ginge

I'm not saying rip up the form book because an outsider won, I'm saying rip up the form book because this outsider won. The fact is, the last two runs just cannot be ignored - they were abysmal efforts, it cannot be anything to do with Biddick (who rode LTO) as he has a great record on Mon Mome (2143 before that run, some of his very best form - Kim Muir, Aintree, Haydock Gold Cup). Even if we do ignore those runs he still has chunks to find on last year's running. Also I don't remember a horse winning his first Grand National on his 7th "National" start.

[billy the punter]

Re: The 2009 Grand National Also with Cerium and Arteea seemingly running a great race it really adds fuel to the fire that this was indeed a freak result. Suggesting it's possible for one no-hoper to excel, suggesting that three can, is a leap too far for me. It's much more logical to suggest the form is suspect.

[arnoldlayne]

Re: The 2009 Grand National Clearing out some old Racing Posts tonight, came across a table from mid January of GN odds (before the first lot of weights were announced.) Mon Mome ranged from 33s to 40s - and he was probably in the top 20 in the betting at that time.

[mileni4uk]

Re: The 2009 Grand National Or one could just say he didn't like the soft/heavy where he had all those recent poor runs and if we come back to his first two starts of the season on better ground, he had a close 2nd to Possol, who has been running well and has improved 12lbs since then and we can also see the win against the classy Star De Mohaison at Cheltehnam with the rest well behind. Of course Mon Mome has wins on soft and heavy, so this shouldn't be the case. But who knows really, the reason for the improvement could just be the good ground.

[billy the punter]

Re: The 2009 Grand National

Or one could just say he didn't like the soft/heavy where he had all those recent poor runs and if we come back to his first two starts of the season on better ground' date=' he had a close 2nd to Possol, who has been running well and has improved 12lbs since then and we can also see the win against the classy Star De Mohaison at Cheltehnam with the rest well behind. Of course Mon Mome has wins on soft and heavy, so this shouldn't be the case. But who knows really, the reason for the improvement could just be the good ground.[/quote'] Maybe but until this season Mon Mome had a fantastic record on soft and heavy. I think if it was a case of disappointing due to ground (prior) he wouldn't have gone off this price and totally ingored by all. There are no apparent excuses for the past two previous efforts. Also we're assuming that good/soft ground due to watering is the same as regulatr good/soft ground - it isn't. Many trainers, owners and punters are against watering due to the falseness of surface it creates. Sometimes it can create a loose top only, which is dangerous after a couple of days use. Not suggesting that this is to blame, just a comment about the ground as it's been mentioned, and I've strayed from the point a bit. Obviously I understand the need to water for the National, safety is paramount. For me, it's a real head scratcher, if there were multiple fallers and he plodded on to score I could perhaps understand it more. But there were 17 finishers (only 2 fancied runners failed to finish), and he won by 12l!!! Also we can't ignore that 2m/2.5m'ers Cerium and Arteea finished up there. I remember thinking that Black Apalachi had gone off far too quick, and those that seemed to run above form came from way off the pace - perhaps they came back to those help up out the back? I don't know, I'm just throwing ideas up, but I've never seen so many horse in contention on the turn before.

[Gingertipster]

Re: The 2009 Grand National

I'm not saying rip up the form book because an outsider won' date= I'm saying rip up the form book because this outsider won. The fact is, the last two runs just cannot be ignored - they were abysmal efforts, it cannot be anything to do with Biddick (who rode LTO) as he has a great record on Mon Mome (2143 before that run, some of his very best form - Kim Muir, Aintree, Haydock Gold Cup). Even if we do ignore those runs he still has chunks to find on last year's running. Also I don't remember a horse winning his first Grand National on his 7th "National" start.

Of course the last two runs can't be ignored but the penultimete start was his 5th in 11 weeks. In fact he did not have much to find. On Timeform ratings he was only 8lbs behind top rated. Mon Mome is a better horse than last year, we know that from his win at Cheltenham this season. Therefore, if he was improving in December, he could (once back in top form) continue that improvement. Particularly as we we know he stays so well (2nd in 07 Welsh National and on soft going) so might be able to improve given an even longer trip. After the Blue Square race (7th of 9 finishers) Timeform said in their Perspective, "had a punishing time of it in November / December and is possibly still feeling the effects, suggested by both his appearance beforehand and performance". God, it is easy when you know the result isn't it! Why didn't I back it?:lol How many "national" starts did Little Polvier run in? That might have been around seven. Ginge

[billy the punter]

Re: The 2009 Grand National

God, it is easy when you know the result isn't it! Why didn't I back it?:lol How many "national" starts did Little Polvier run in? That might have been around seven. Ginge

Indeed. Personally before the race I would've needed 35+ picks to find him. LP may've had that many starts, not sure - I'm younger than you. :lol;)

[orbitboy]

Re: The 2009 Grand National Havn't posted yet, but I thought I'd make my first post a very happy one... Next race please............... Gutted I didn't close my position on Sitting Tennant in the 5:35 cos I would have had a trio of consecutive winners. Is the cup half full or half empty?? I suppose it's 2/3's full.

[Trotter]

Re: The 2009 Grand National Well, I did pick Mon Mome in the competition up the top of the forum......... Not very scientific, but I'll explain why I picked him. Every week I read Mordin's on-line column and jot down any entries that catch my eye with reference to future races and Mordin's ratings...... Here are the 2 entries I had for Mon Mome for November and December 2008......... "22/11 - 39 - strong pace enabled him to go close in this 3-miler. Usually best with a marathon trip on soft ground. On this running would have a good chance in the Welsh National. Dec, Chelt - 40 - produced his best here, but not entirely trustworthy. Looks a bit uninterested in the game. Maybe the National fences at Aintree would perk him up and would suit his careful jumping style." In Mordin's rating system 39/40 is a solid Grade 2 time figure. Good old Mordin !...............:lol

[Aykay1]

Re: The 2009 Grand National Ironically I backed Mon Mome last year when he finished 10th. Couldnt see any reason why he would improve so much this year so ignored him. doh! A French bred was always going to win eventually - that stat has been on very very shaky ground for while now with lots of French breds getting placed recently.You have to take each stat on its merits. An apparent reason for not backing Big Fella Thanks was because he was a novice and a novice hadnt won since 1958. Thats sounds pretty conclusive but if you consider that few novices line up and evenn fewer novices with a chance line up then it puts the trend into perspective. BFT had all the credentials to run a big race and to write him off simply because he was a novice is a bit of an overreaction. Someone (Gingertipster maybe?) posted up an analysis of the 11 stone trend and largely proved it to be overhyped. Im not completely poo-pooing trends as they can come in useful but to follow them blindly is very dangerous.

[alexpro7]

Re: The 2009 Grand National Toatally agree with you on the french bred thing but was not expecting it to go this year . But the trend on weight continues with the winner carrying 11 stone. Lots of bigger weights placed but the trend is only for winners so is still relevant. Mon Mome accelerated away after the last as the others felt the weight burden. Thought Comply or Die ran a great race again.

[TheRat]

Re: The 2009 Grand National Only one of my picks finished and that was last! Pleased Venitia won though as she is fairly local to where I am from As foir trends, they are never going to pick you a winner every time, but I still think they are the best guide in a race like the Grand National

[mileni4uk]

Re: The 2009 Grand National Ogi's not been around lately. He was talking about Ollie Magern and Mon Mome before the race. He's always backing them. If he was online he would have been on Mon Mome, but I haven't seen him for a few days. Hope he managed to put a bet on :)

[Tedthewolf]

Re: The 2009 Grand National

Ogi's not been around lately. He was talking about Ollie Magern and Mon Mome before the race. He's always backing them. If he was online he would have been on Mon Mome' date=' but I haven't seen him for a few days. Hope he managed to put a bet on :)[/quote'] Yeah noticed he put Mon Mome up as a super nap lto. :hope he had a few quid on it ogii55 Junior Punter Join Date: 01 Jan 2009 Posts: 72 Default Re: Best Bet of the Day ~ Saturday 14th March 3.10 Uttox Mon Mome 1 pt e/w Supernap This horse smashed very strong field in december. Now he comes in faw weaker race and despite the fact that is top weight i think he has great chances. Most of the Top long chasers will be prepared themselfs for Grand national. Venetia Wiliams showed nice form in Cheltenham and she for sure us prepared well to attack the big prise here. Sam Thomas on board is another plus, because half of the field here is with not so high class jockeys on board.

[fintron]

Re: The 2009 Grand National A PL user whose name escapes me had/has a quote as their signiture which is something along the lines of, "I use statistics as much as a drunken man uses lamposts...for guidance rather than illumination". I think that is an excellent quote and can be applied here with regards to the trends as well.

[Aykay1]

Re: The 2009 Grand National :clap yep, that sums it up better than I did :lol

[billy the punter]

Re: The 2009 Grand National Any horse, can win any race, on any going, at any distance, at any age. It's the horse in relation to the oppositin that is key. I was explaining theories to a friend the other day, I said that Lochsong would win a 2m race against Linzi's dressage horse. In fact Lochsong would even beat Yeats over 2m if they walked the first 15.5f. He wasn't having any of it. Stats will tend to hold up if nothing untoward happens. The French bred was waiting to happen. The weight is still up for debate, horses are giving less away these days, but the winner did only carry 11stone - a pound less than Hedgehunter carried. Burden weights still struggle to win. I happen to think the form is very questionable, there are too many factors to ignore to suggest it isn't. The pace slowed dramatically at the 2/3 stage, as I explained in the secional thread - maybe that was the reason for some hosrse to run above form.

[bowles10]

Re: The 2009 Grand National 11/11- Won at least over 3m 11/11 - Won class 1 or 2 chase (seven at class 1) 11/11 - RPR 144+ 10/11 - Aged 8-11 10/11 - Officially rated 136 to 147 10/11 - 3-5 runs in season 10/11 - Ran over fences between 10 - 27 times my trends from the National Mon Mome - won over 3m won class 1 aged 8-11 OR between 136-147 (was 148?) 10-27 runs over fences so i dismissed it on the 3-5 runs stat! as it had 6 runs. Ok, i also highlighted the FR bred stat in my final 6 selections, however the horse met a number of trends. I also mention in my thread, it was one of those horses at the start of the season that i felt had a big race in it, I should have held my nerve!

[Gingertipster]

Re: The 2009 Grand National So Bowles: A staying race over 36 furlongs should be won by a winner of a race of 24 of more furlongs. Surprise!:eek Age 8 to 11. So you don't usually want a geriatric, most horses are on the downgrade by the age of 12. And considering until recently those aged 6 and under were banned from the race; that just leaves those aged 7 which consist of what percentage of the runners in your time range?:unsure So if you took no notice of two of your trends, on every horse to run; how many horses would have qualified in your trends? Without choosing which trends to ignore. Mon Mome was rated 148 and French bred. Sorry, could not resist.:lol Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Re: The 2009 Grand National

Any horse, can win any race, on any going, at any distance, at any age. It's the horse in relation to the oppositin that is key. I was explaining theories to a friend the other day, I said that Lochsong would win a 2m race against Linzi's dressage horse. In fact Lochsong would even beat Yeats over 2m if they walked the first 15.5f. He wasn't having any of it. Stats will tend to hold up if nothing untoward happens. The French bred was waiting to happen. The weight is still up for debate, horses are giving less away these days, but the winner did only carry 11stone - a pound less than Hedgehunter carried. Burden weights still struggle to win. I happen to think the form is very questionable, there are too many factors to ignore to suggest it isn't. The pace slowed dramatically at the 2/3 stage, as I explained in the secional thread - maybe that was the reason for some hosrse to run above form.

Oh, I see. So yesturday's race does not count towards trends because of the pace. Silly me.:lol Sure horses are giving away less weight these days, but those carrying less than 11 st still ounumbered those carrying 11 st or more by 23 to 17. So the 11 st trend only worked when there were 36 or more horses running against 4 or less. Big surprise! Had Butler's Cabin won off 10st 13lb would you have said it is only one pound in to the "trend" scale so matters little? Of course not. The second carried 11st 6lbs, the third 11st 4lbs, fourth 11st 2lbs. There is no weight debate anymore. French breds once struggled to win because most were trained in France, with automatic top weight. Ginge

[billy the punter]

Re: The 2009 Grand National

Oh, I see. So yesturday's race does not count towards trends because of the pace. Silly me.:lol Had Butler's Cabin won off 10st 13lb would you have said it is only one pound in to the "trend" scale so matters little? Of course not. The second carried 11st 6lbs, the third 11st 4lbs, fourth 11st 2lbs. There is no weight debate anymore. French breds once struggled to win because most were trained in France, with automatic top weight. Ginge

Ginge I have no idea why you've responded to my post as you have? You have totally confused me. Please explain how your answer relates to my post. Once you do, I will respond with ease, as per. ;)

[Gingertipster]

Re: The 2009 Grand National

Any horse, can win any race, on any going, at any distance, at any age. It's the horse in relation to the oppositin that is key. I was explaining theories to a friend the other day, I said that Lochsong would win a 2m race against Linzi's dressage horse. In fact Lochsong would even beat Yeats over 2m if they walked the first 15.5f. He wasn't having any of it. Stats will tend to hold up if nothing untoward happens. The French bred was waiting to happen. The weight is still up for debate, horses are giving less away these days, but the winner did only carry 11stone - a pound less than Hedgehunter carried. Burden weights still struggle to win. I happen to think the form is very questionable, there are too many factors to ignore to suggest it isn't. The pace slowed dramatically at the 2/3 stage, as I explained in the secional thread - maybe that was the reason for some hosrse to run above form.

Billy, You seem to be saying this years race should not count towards trends / stats because of the pace of the race. Despite all my work showing how how few runners have carried 11 st and more in the past; and how biased this so called "trend" or "stat" is. And despite the result of this years race: You still pursist in this weight debate. Just got to me a bit, sorry, forget it.:lol Ginge