PL2008 Posted March 2, 2009 Share Posted March 2, 2009 2:20 NEWCASTLE Lord Larsson 6-1 RPF EW Has improved on every run since his career started 5 rusn ago/16Nov07. Winless from three NHF starts - 904. Two second-placed finishes from two Novices' Hurdle starts. Hurdle debut was at this C&D getting to 3 3/4L at the end to Waterloo Road and Broadway Star. Trainer J M Jefferson goes into today having won 2 and second 3 times from the past 6 starts. Jockey Phil Kinsella have 2 wins from 1 second from the last three for Jefferson. Horse progressing well with a trainer and jockey in good form should have this on the shortlist. .5PTS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted March 2, 2009 Share Posted March 2, 2009 Re: Best Bet Of The Day - 03Mar09 southwell 3.10 Boundless prospect looks an unusual entry here, was only beaten by a head here over 1m3f handicap and looked to still have plenty on offer, so drop to selling company looks slightly strange and running anything like he did here a month ago this should be a straightforward win! win boundless prospect Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted March 2, 2009 Share Posted March 2, 2009 Re: Best Bet Of The Day - 03Mar09 2.10 Southwell 10 runners go to post for this Class 5, 5f sprint handicap. 9 of these are CD winners so, although course form is generally important here, we can probably put a line through that factor here. Going against my normal grain of backing top weights, I think all the dangers here come from the bottom half. I like the EW look of both Guto and Decider but the one I'll be backing is: Colorus (RPF 8/1) - This looks a corking bet to me. Not won for an eternity but this horse really likes Southwell and normally runs a decent race here, Races off same mark as lto but capable of taking this. Has been running very often over the last 2 months and has run 5 times at this track since November, finishing 4/11, 2/13, 8/10 when given a poor ride, 3/11 and 4/9. Except the poor ride it was given, SP on the other 4 occasions were decent, 10/1, 8/1, 13/2 & 7/1. What draws me massively to this horse is that the trainer, without a winner this year, runs 2 here in Colorus and Guto. The jockeys on both of those have not ridden at all this year and I do look backing returning jockeys. Add to that both of them have positve P/L when riding for this trainer last year, I just feel this could be the race to see the trainer get off the mark. Trainers last 2 runners have finished 2/6 at 16's and 3/9 at 12's so could be running into form. Jockey on this has a great record at Southwell, 8/28, and is excellent value for 5lb claim. Also finished 2/13 over CD on only ride on the horse. Guaranteed to be a strong pace here, this horse will sit just off the leaders ready to strike inside the last. Looks a super EW bet, with Guto & Decider worth including in forecasts / swinger. EW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted March 2, 2009 Share Posted March 2, 2009 Re: Best Bet Of The Day - 03Mar09 Race: 15.30 Exeter Selection: Topless A 3m 6f marathon here, so it doesnt look the easiest race to predict, but Topless takes the eye at a forecast 20/1. This horse is probably remembered by most when unseating James Davies about 5 yards from the line when he had the race at his mercy. That certainly sticks in my mind, but these things happen in racing and we just have to move on. There are a number of reasons I have decided to select this horse to take the race, and one of which is the ground. If you look back at his form, he does seem to show his best running on sounder ground. His 2 poorer runs recently have come on heavy ground, however his 1 better run (clear when unseating) was on a slightly sounder surface. His unseating that day may just be a blessing in disguise as the handicapper was unable to punish him for that victory. He couldnt capitalise on that luxury last time, but today he has his favoured ground. To be fair, the horse hasnt won for 2 years, but he enjoys a true stamina test, and based on his unseat 2 runs ago, he is potentially very well in today. I have doubts about some of his rivals, especially Natoumba whom I feel appreciated the heavy ground last time and think Topless should go close. A value bet without doubt. Advice EW :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punterpete Posted March 3, 2009 Share Posted March 3, 2009 Re: Best Bet Of The Day - 03Mar09 3.50 Newcastle Fortunate Isle Win Course and distance winner, ground will be in his favour and first time visor could bring enough improvement to see him home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pumpit Posted March 3, 2009 Share Posted March 3, 2009 Re: Best Bet Of The Day - 03Mar09 Exeter 2.30pm Giles Cross 1pt lay This horse seems locked and loaded to win by all accounts from a few reports but i have my doubts,Our Bomber Harris looks good to go today and might winif not some other will come for this win,Giles Cross laying. Good Luck Whatever You Bet Today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boulder5111 Posted March 3, 2009 Share Posted March 3, 2009 Re: Best Bet Of The Day - 03Mar09 E3.30 Present M'Lord 0.5pt E/W Has run 2 good races at this course and todays jockey clearly gets the best out of the horse. Has dropped to a decent mark after several runs on ground that would have been softer than ideal so back on more decent ground today and with blinkers applied for the first time, I'm expecting a big run. The current odds of 14/1 are also bigger than I was expecting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
linbo Posted March 3, 2009 Share Posted March 3, 2009 Re: Best Bet Of The Day - 03Mar09 Exeter 3-30 Natoumba Win Natoumba will relish every yard of the trip, is an improving horse and the stable has a good record at the track. He is also not burdened with too much weight to carry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cc75 Posted March 3, 2009 Share Posted March 3, 2009 Re: Best Bet Of The Day - 03Mar09 3.50 Newcastle - Percussionist Drops in grade to Class 4 handicap for first time today after contesting better contests than this - also dropped in the weights a further 3lbs. Every chance in this company, yard still among the winners and could be very well treated in the handicap so my idea of the winner. 1pt each way Banker Bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowzer Posted March 3, 2009 Share Posted March 3, 2009 Re: Best Bet Of The Day - 03Mar09 Exeter 3-30 Natoumba 1pt win The horse will be suited by the step up in trip according to to his trainer, no distance is too far. He is open to plenty of improvement and should go very well. The only negative is that he would have prefered softer ground, but I imagine that goes for the majority of the field. Hopefully the step up in trip and stiff track will negate the effect of the quicker ground Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted March 3, 2009 Share Posted March 3, 2009 Re: Best Bet Of The Day - 03Mar09 3:10 - Boundless Prospect - Back Form horse of the race and looks to have a terrifc chance of picking up another win here. Only Dancing Lyra is better off on official weights, and although 2nd fave, his form is hardly inspiring. Boundless Prospect is a course winner which is a big plus at Southwell, should take all the beating 1pt win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted March 3, 2009 Share Posted March 3, 2009 Re: Best Bet Of The Day - 03Mar09 2.50 Newcastle - Zaffarella - 1pt win Put up 12lbs for a 15-length win at Ayr lto, that should not prevent him from building on that here. Although the form of the win is nothing special, Zaffarella was thought good enough to contest a Listed Bumper at Newbury 2 years ago and has improved with each run in handicap company. If he can maintain that progression then he can pick up this race this afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted March 3, 2009 Share Posted March 3, 2009 Re: Best Bet Of The Day - 03Mar09 2.50 Newcastle - Zaffarella - 1pt win Put up 12lbs for a 15-length win at Ayr lto, that should not prevent him from building on that here. Although the form of the win is nothing special, Zaffarella was thought good enough to contest a Listed Bumper at Newbury 2 years ago and has improved with each run in handicap company. If he can maintain that progression then he can pick up this race this afternoon. SHE* :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KautoStar666 Posted March 3, 2009 Share Posted March 3, 2009 Re: Best Bet Of The Day - 03Mar09 3.00 Exeter: Lavender Track (win) Hoping this one wins because im having a rotten time at the minute, anyway i think this horse will run a good race and take the spoils, this mare has some good bumper form winning 2 races and also getting a respectable 6th to mad max last year reads well. Hoping its in good condition and should trouble the favourite! 5/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandgrounder Posted March 3, 2009 Share Posted March 3, 2009 Re: Best Bet Of The Day - 03Mar09 2,20New, Steady Tiger. Magellan Straits won over this C&D last month, beating BestLover by 1 1/2-lengths and that form gives him solid claims, but this could go to Nicky Richards' STEADY TIGER who beat the same horse by 1 3/4-lengths over C&D in January and could be a really useful performer in the making. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted March 3, 2009 Share Posted March 3, 2009 Re: Best Bet Of The Day - 03Mar09 400 Exeter: The Randy Bishop Looks a weak race to me, 8 runners at present but the three rags look out of it for a start. Dream Flacon saw some support the other day but jumped violently left and need to see that run again before backing. This leaves me with 4 possibilities. The top one could be anything, 3 runs over hurdles without showing much, the Victor Dartnell connection has halved the price and is no value. Tizzy Blue had his first run after a long break and suffered a crashing fall on his chase debut, need to see him complete and could be one for those that like to bet in running. Swift Sailor has had 5 runs over fences and only finished once, won a decent selling hurdle last time back before xmas but not a betting proposition surely at 4/1! This leaves The Randy Bishop as the only solid selection, already won over fences and then was last of three finishers in a better race but was still going well two out before being eased, last time tried to take advantage of a lenient handicap mark over hurdles and again ran well behind Patsy Finnegan. Back over fences on decent ground, has the form in the book and at 3/1-7/2 looks good value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NMc106 Posted March 3, 2009 Share Posted March 3, 2009 Re: Best Bet Of The Day - 03Mar09 15-30 Exeter - Samsbro - EW: A very open race this.. Sandhurst has had just 2 runs this season and makes his handicap debut here off a potentially decent mark. Finished 2nd on his seasonal opener and followed that up with a 3rd last time out and I think that the good ground will get even better out of him as he didn’t seem to like the soft ground and was a pretty hard ride. Not Sam Thomas’s biggest fan but to be honest he’s a pretty good jockey and he should get a good ride out of this one so a good chance. Samsbro ran lto for the 1st time for new trainer Dartnall and it was his most encouraging performance for a long time so if he improves on that he could go very close here. He is weighted to turn around the form of Notabotheronme and if he takes to the good ground then he could well do that and go on to win. A decent chance here with the step up in distance also. Wild Groundmade her seasonal debut 26 days ago and really well finishing a good 2nd behind Borero, and finds herself only 2lbs up for her display. The run came on heavy which isn’t her favourite and the change to good will see the best of her. Improvement should be due for her run lto and if she can last the distance then she is sure to be there or thereabouts as she is one of few who have solid form on faster ground. Wasn't easy to select one as I have all the ones above marked down, but in the end Samsbro gets that nod for this thread. Currently 8/1 available. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted March 3, 2009 Share Posted March 3, 2009 Re: Best Bet Of The Day - 03Mar09 2.10 Southwell - Garlogs - EW Topweight, has now dropped back to it's last winning mark Loves it here with numerous course wins to it's name. Struggled a bit after that last win and put in some disappointing efforts from higher handicap marks, but has had a few weeks off to freshen him up and his little break has co-incided with the Hollinshead stable hitting form. Claimer takes 3 lbs off but has won on the horse 3 times before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowen982 Posted March 3, 2009 Share Posted March 3, 2009 Re: Best Bet Of The Day - 03Mar09 2:20 NEWCASTLE Lord Larsson 6-1 RPF EW Has improved on every run since his career started 5 rusn ago/16Nov07. Winless from three NHF starts - 904. Two second-placed finishes from two Novices' Hurdle starts. Hurdle debut was at this C&D getting to 3 3/4L at the end to Waterloo Road and Broadway Star. Trainer J M Jefferson goes into today having won 2 and second 3 times from the past 6 starts. Jockey Phil Kinsella have 2 wins from 1 second from the last three for Jefferson. Horse progressing well with a trainer and jockey in good form should have this on the shortlist. .5PTS Nice Tip Mate! :nana Well done! Mike Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshman443 Posted March 3, 2009 Share Posted March 3, 2009 Re: Best Bet Of The Day - 03Mar09 4-40 silver hotspur-e/way -won this race last yr ran as if comming back to form last time-hoping blinkers help,worth chance at track he does well at Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted March 3, 2009 Share Posted March 3, 2009 Re: Best Bet Of The Day - 03Mar09 4.40 Southwell Exit Smiling - has form in higher grade, CD winner lto on reappearance, can go well again here. EW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted March 3, 2009 Share Posted March 3, 2009 Re: Best Bet Of The Day - 03Mar09 17:10 Southwell - The London Gang Recent form is not inspiring but the drop down in trip could bring some improvment, has been running over 8 and 9 with no success so he is at least dropping down to a trip where he has won off, running off a very low mark now and hoping for an improved performence. 0.5pts e/w Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 Re: Best Bet Of The Day - 03Mar09 Well done to the winners PL, Chris34 and Wizzkid and those with placed selections :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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