AFK7 Posted May 6, 2009 Author Share Posted May 6, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... Yes, its far from random Muppet. With double odds i can just squeak a profit but its tough. The bookies have got more competitive and the 9/4 of some years ago is almost always 12/5. This one factor has swung things around. Heres to the last big Saturday! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted May 9, 2009 Author Share Posted May 9, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... Sory for the late post. Nailed the draws last night! 3 x one point Lucky 15s Arsenal v Chelsea 23/10 West Brom v Wigan 12/5 Burnley v Reading 9/4 St Mirren v Motherwell 12/5 Dundee v Partick 5/2 Livingston v QofS 5/2 Morton v Ross 13/5 Stuttgart v Wolfsburg 5/2 Valencia v R Madrid 5/2 Bilbao v Betis 23/10 Fulham v Villa 23/10 Everton v Spurs 12/5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green00 Posted May 9, 2009 Share Posted May 9, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... like this thread a lot hope you continue next season.. i reckon theres a good argument for all 6 of todays premier 15-00 kick offs ending in draws ... good luck all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted May 16, 2009 Author Share Posted May 16, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... Pot at 718 after just two singles last week. 1 point Lucky 15 today. Boro v Villa 12/5 Hamilton v Motherwell 23/10 Villareal v R Madrid 5/2 Osasuna v Sevillla 12/5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted May 17, 2009 Author Share Posted May 17, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... Done for a treble by a strange last minute winner. Double takes pot to 721. Lets see if we can finish over 750 with 2 weeks to go. Need Gijonv Malaga today for a nice four-timer, could do with it after my last two weeks performance!! If you like to follow this thread i guarantee to continue next season with perhaps a little more reasoning. Otium. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted May 23, 2009 Author Share Posted May 23, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... Final big weekend and i fancy some tasty draws at sweet prices. 4 x one point Lucky 15s Villa v Newcastle 5/2 W Ham v Boro 5/2 Millwall v Scunny 23/10 Inverness v Falkirk 13/5 Atalanta v Palermo 12/5 Samp v Udinese 12/5 Cottbus v Leverkusen 7/2 Gladbach v Dortmund 13/5 Almeria v Espanyol 12/5 Bilbao v A Madrid 11/4 Malaga v Betis 5/2 Valladolid v Gijon 5/2 Gills v Shrews 9/4 Burnley v Sheff U 9/4 Villareal v Valencia 5/2 Cottbus v Leverkusen 7/2 (in twice due to price rick!). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted May 25, 2009 Author Share Posted May 25, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... A treble and a single means 108 points return from a 60 stake. Finished on 769 from a starting bank of 100. Just over 13/2 from around 100 bets staked. Any others systems on here with such a return? We start again in August, more reasoning, more selectivity and i guarantee those who follow a profitable season. Good luck to all. Otium. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted May 25, 2009 Share Posted May 25, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... absoultely superb buddy. :clap have you considered which has played more of a role in your success this season? (a) your selection strategy (b) the fact that you play lucky 15 © the fact that you get bonuses (such as treble odds one winner etc) a little bit of analysis may answer this question if you can be bothered. (look at your results and run them through again by playing just singles, then again with lucky 15 no bonuses) obviously all 3 play SOME part, but which is the MOST important? i think if you can decide then it may stream line you for next season. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted May 30, 2009 Author Share Posted May 30, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... Good questions Muppet and ones i feel i already know the answers to. I may reveal more at some point. For those of you who follow this thread the Audi became a Skoda Superb but its a 2.8 beast with 142mph top speed!! Lets have one last go this weekend. 2 x 1 point Lucky 15s Fiorentina v Milan 23/10 Depor v Barca 11/4 Mallorca v Villareal 12/5 Numancia v Sevilla 13/5 Racing v Getafe 23/10 Leverkusen v Bremen 12/5 Caen v Bordeaux 11/4 Nantes v Auxerre 9/4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted May 30, 2009 Author Share Posted May 30, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... Muppet/all, i have been a little selective with the truth. I clearly know the answers to your questions. My 11 years of profit shows i know the maths inside out. Come back next year, i may reveal more then but what i will say is i will guide you to profit. Regards Otium Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSaint Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... Just found this thread as the season ends! :wall:@ Typical. Looks a good one though so will wait for the new season with interest. Good luck and thanks for sharing. Now to try to find a bookies that offers the treble odds for one winner only. :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... Otium i am going to try and do some analysis on your results today if i get time. By my reckoning you have proofed 51 lucky 15 bets on here. I will look at how successful you would of been by just playing 1 pt stake single bets. I will then try to approximate lucky 15s with no bonuses. I will report back later if i get time today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted May 31, 2009 Share Posted May 31, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... from what i can gather from the data posted: winners frequency none 18 single 14 double 13 treble 6 four fold 1 profit yield singles 13.44 6.5% no bonuses 579.45 74.3% bonuses 669 85.8% average odds 3.46 required strike 28.86% strike rate 30.77% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted May 31, 2009 Author Share Posted May 31, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... Muppet, thanks for your input. I have stuff, stats, cuttings going back 20 years. Dont want to reveal too much but my selectivity, treble odds and staking plan gives me a 12% edge. This small sample on here is not truly representative. The 4 timer i had skews the figures somewhat and although i have had four/five 4 timers this season they are a rare bird. Had a sad last 3 weeks but had an amazing punt today. £1 Lucky 15 correct score Roma 3-2 25/1 Bologna 3-1 9/1 Osasuna 2-1 17/2 Genoa 3-3 100/1 The first 3 came in paying over £3k, i just followed the money and got lucky!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted June 1, 2009 Share Posted June 1, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... Wow. What an awesome bet mate. Why dont you post up bets like that with huge odds? How did you come up with that bet? Surely not a system but rather a massive stab in the dark? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted June 1, 2009 Author Share Posted June 1, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... Not a stab. Watched the correct score odds on Betfair. "Tactico Accordo" and all that. In the Genoa game over half the money went on 2-2 and 3-3. The same with Bologna 3-1. Also Roma 3-1 and 3-2 took over half the bets Just follow the money at the end of the season. Bet returned £3117.50, my bookie is as sick as the proverbial parrot! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted June 1, 2009 Share Posted June 1, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... Surely this is all really easy to post on here after the event has happened? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted June 1, 2009 Share Posted June 1, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... agreed Jase - some excellent bets advised, but no hint to the strategy behind it (Forum Rules???) It's a real shame Otium that you don't ante post advice like the £3117.50 winner. You obviously seem to know what's going on, but please enlighten us on the thinking behind it all and don't put up bets that have won thousands of pounds but are after the final whistle. I don't want to pour water all over this thread as you are clearly picking draws effectively and seem really positive. :) keep up the hard work :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elgoonerman Posted June 1, 2009 Share Posted June 1, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... Muppet, thanks for your input. I have stuff, stats, cuttings going back 20 years. Dont want to reveal too much but my selectivity, treble odds and staking plan gives me a 12% edge. This small sample on here is not truly representative. The 4 timer i had skews the figures somewhat and although i have had four/five 4 timers this season they are a rare bird. Had a sad last 3 weeks but had an amazing punt today. £1 Lucky 15 correct score Roma 3-2 25/1 Bologna 3-1 9/1 Osasuna 2-1 17/2 Genoa 3-3 100/1 The first 3 came in paying over £3k, i just followed the money and got lucky!!!!! I'm sure your going to be banned from a few bookies if you carry on like this :notworthy Legend! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted June 2, 2009 Author Share Posted June 2, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... I make around 200 bets a week. Posting them on here would take forever. I have already taken a 4 day week just because punting takes up so much time. The strategy is at the beginning on the first post. I already have two people known to me imitating my bets and one of them works in the bookies!!! If anyone want to see the £1 lucky 15 slip paying £3117.50 they are more than welcome (not cashed yet)!! If i was relying on such bets i would be doing bigger stakes than £15. I just followed the money. 3-1 Bologna was tipped up all over the place on Betfair. I think 50k of the 100k staked went on it. If you want i will lend you the stakes as well!!!! All my draw bets on here were posted pre the game. Jesus guys. Give a guy a break. Want a winning correct score bet? Check here Saturday about midday. Regards Otium Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doublecee Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... I don't know what's wrong with some blokes. I've read this thread from day one and this guy reeks of integrity. Give him a slap on the back. Well done mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted June 2, 2009 Share Posted June 2, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... Otium i think that your attack on the bookies is superb and i follow your bets closely. I hope that you continue to post with every success. You said in a thread previous to this season (2007 -8 i think) that you would discuss the selection process later. You also said at the start of this thread that you would reveal more later. What is it? Or do you just blanket bomb 4 draws for many games without considering which games to pick? (you did say that you make 200 lucky 15 a week.) i am intrigued as to how you do it mate. :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted June 2, 2009 Author Share Posted June 2, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... Doublecee. Thank you for the kind words. Having integrity is the highest praise you can confer on anyone. A taxi driver once called me a gentleman. It stayed with me. Muppet, naturally i have reasons for not revealing all. The bookie is the enemy. More than you or I read this. What i can say is that there is a selection criteria and although i might single out around 20 draws a weekend they are spread over perhaps 100 European games. I always consider selections but remember Laddies have 20 professional guys setting the odds, they have already identified the obvious draws!!! As for aftertiming, it matters not, all i know is i have 12 straight winning years and have won twice my take home salary this season (hence taking a 4 day week). Fancy myself on Saturday and i know with a revised staking plan next season i will multiply the bank 5 times. Fall out with me when i give losing tips!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted June 4, 2009 Share Posted June 4, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... Hi Otium, Great thread, long may you continue with your success .... after sharing a bit with us first of course :loon Just reading between the lines here ... I don't think anybody is trying to fall out with you or doubt your selection process .... it's just this forum has strict rules about after eventing and system rules. When you get a following of experienced systemites on here smelling a sniff of potential success it's a huge compliment. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted June 5, 2009 Author Share Posted June 5, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... Most kind Kanga. I understand aftertiming. I have been done by a 90th minute goal or later 24 times this season for a four timer paying £4k plus!! Only had two went for me. When i post or mention a decent win there have been plenty losers too. What i stand by are my pre-match posts on here. I know i will give a 500% profit on bank next year and i am prepared to make good on guarantees to that. I could tell you that i am this that or the other, that i have won X amount this season or that i have so many homes. I dont do losing, when the season is over i retire and recharge my batteries. There will be plenty corn next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted June 6, 2009 Author Share Posted June 6, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... Try these today. Take the best price everytime. Engalnd to win 2-0 (11/2), 3-0 (13/2) Belarus to win 2-0 (13/2), 3-0 (11/2) Slovakia to win 2-0 (8/1), 3-0 (11/2) Finland to win 2-0 (6/1), 3-0 ( 11/2) Any four-timer, 16 bets. Super soccer is the best for most of these. Done lots of combos today including Wednesdays games v minnows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sagalout31 Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... Otium Not posted for a while:spankbut glad i've found this thread and hope you continue for next season. I have been backing 4 draws in a yankee for a couple of seasons now, to think that some bookies will give treble odds on a single win has got me very upbeat!!!! I have never used independant bookies as this has been a "fun" weekend bet for me normally engineered over a saturday dinner pint in my local situated next to a Lad broke (s). I have no stats to provide but last season had all 4 up once, with 3 up on 4 occasions (Yossi Benayoun :cry90 + 3 scoring a late winner at Fulham denied me another full house 1 week) I'm sure i was in profit, a double usually covering stake of yankee was not a rarity, this combined with my bigger wins would surely have put me in the black. Locating an independant willing to offer the single winner bonus would minimise losses tremendously. I will deffo do some local research and give this some serious attention :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xcout Posted July 11, 2009 Share Posted July 11, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... Glad to find this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucio Posted July 11, 2009 Share Posted July 11, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... good thread .Otium keep it like this :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFK7 Posted July 20, 2009 Author Share Posted July 20, 2009 Re: The 4 draws... Its almost here and i will be posting up very soon. Want to show that last years 769 points from a 100 bank was no flash in the pan and give all you PL guys a few pennies in your pockets!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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