The 4 draws...

[muppet77]

Re: The 4 draws... I will be onboard this season mate and may trial your four picks on a lucky 15 using one all correct scores. Do you have any stats on how often your draws picks were one alls?

[AFK7]

Re: The 4 draws... Muppet, i predict draws at around 30%. Knowing that 1-1 is around 13% of all games will give you a guide. I am betting on 40-50 draws a week so no, i do not keep score records. I used to live in Sweden and made money backing 1-1 as the Swedish system is a tote and i often got ten or twelve to one odds. Value is as much a key as triple odds. 11/2 for 1-1 when it should be 15/2 is clearly not a good strategy in the long run.

[stevejjbb]

Re: The 4 draws...

The principle is simple, 4 closely matched games backed as draws in a Lucky 15. Only some independents will take this bet as we are looking for treble odds 1 winner and a 10% bonus for four correct. Many independents offer best price any bookmaker and this is crucial in turning a profit. 27% draws in top-flight British football which means by being selective we can achieve 30%. This means our break even is 2.3/1 so by demanding at least 2.4/1 (12/5) we can lock in profit.

Wow!! i never knew treble odds for one winner was available on football result type bets within a Lucky 15. This has certainly got my attention.

Some independent bookies also guarantee to match the best odds being offered on an event by other bookies? Have I read that correctly, and how do they implement it? Would they not have to go to some odds comparison website (BestBetting, BetBrain, etc.) and discover what others are offering before writing the price down on the Lucky 15 betting slip?

I know the mathematics behind the system described ‘should’ ensure profits over the long term, the bonuses being offered being the key element. Perhaps an alternative staking plan could be considered though? If 7 1 point Lucky 15 bets are placed at the outset (7 x £15 = £105), and not one match out of those 28 (4 x 7) selected ends in a draw (unlikely, but possible), then the bank is wiped out.

I knew that BetFred, and maybe a couple of others, offer 15% all winner and double odds single winner bonuses, but the odds offered are not always attractive. Having a bookie give a guarantee that their odds will match the best on the market, as well as treble odds for 1 winner and 15% for all winners seems almost too good to be true.

I have to admit that I have never considered using independents, but if they can provide these bonuses then they certainly have my attention. That is where the magic ingredient lies, within these bonuses.

It is possible to turn a long-term profit from using double odds, and 10% bonus, but finding value among the few bookies offering it is hard work.

Thanks for this thread OTIUM. Will be watching it with great interest this coming season.

[AFK7]

Re: The 4 draws... The bank is really just for this thread. My bank is infinitely more than 6 times an average bet. Had a mega weekend, soooo many draws. Not allowed to aftertime on here but 4 matches today and 3 draws was the icing on an incredible start to the season. See my new thread for this season.

[stevejjbb]

Re: The 4 draws... Hi Otium, Can you please post the link to your new thread for this season. I'm new to these forums and don't know my way around just yet. as you can see, this is only my 2nd post after stumbling accross this thread yesterday. Thanks, steve

[stevejjbb]

Re: The 4 draws... No problem! I found your new thread. See you there.