jtw1 Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 I recently posted this on my h2h thread and as promised i'm going to start a thread after researching the stats from those results . Here's what the post was about - ----------------------------------------------------------- Have had a bit of a look back at the stats since i started this thead on the 4th of March last year. I only considered those games where one side had a 7+ game h2h advantage over their opponents and it was interesting . Total No of games = 63 No of winners = 43 Longest Losing run = 3 Longest Winning run = 7 [ twice ] Winning Odds ranged from 1.16 to 2.5 If a 1pt win single had been placed on those teams then a profit of 92.36pts would have been achieved. I am definately going to follow these teams from now on and will post on a separate thread and will stake according to the odds on offer. ------------------------------------------------------------- So here goes , REAL MONEY involved and i'm going to try and get a return of 50% or more on each investment . That means if the selection is 1.5 or better then it will be a win single . If , as you will observe this week , they are well under the 1.5 limit then Doubles or even Trebles will suffice. Qualifiers for SAT/SUN - RANGERS are 13-0-1 v Kilmarnock @ 1.25 P.S.V are 9-0-0 v Sparta @ 1.14 BARCELONA are 11-0-0 v Santander @ 1.28 AJAX are 11-1-1 v Roda @ 1.33 * Note , Due to the fact that the SPL teams play each other twice at home and away the stats for that league can be exagerated , so Rangers are just below the official limit of 7 but if we go back a bit further the stats are 15-0-2 which takes them just Over the 7 game advantage limit so i'm willing to take the chance. BETS 1- 10pt Double RANGERS / BARCELONA 2- 10pt Double P.S.V / AJAX All bets placed with bet365. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted September 13, 2008 Author Share Posted September 13, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system BARCELONA bollox up the 1st double after RANGERS came back from 1 down . Waiting for AJAX tomorrow as PSV won 1-0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seepps Posted September 13, 2008 Share Posted September 13, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system Hello jtw1, I'm reading your threads for several months now, trying to reproduce your selections using my database and for this thread I found something strange. My backtest produced similar selections as the ones from the thread you're talking about but the final result is more close to 9 than to 92.36 as you explain. Sure that I 'm wrong, I would just like to understand the way you find your figure. To me, it's as if you calculate the return withour substracting your odds. Furthermore, when I look your strike rate and the number of bets I'm close to your figures 41 winners for 60 games. If you could tell me where I'm wrong ... My result are as follow : Start bank 100,00 Current bank 103,22 Total staked 60,00 Total returned 63,22 Yield 5,37% Profit/Loss 3,22 Winners 41 Loosers 19 Strike Rate 68,33% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seepps Posted September 13, 2008 Share Posted September 13, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system Here's my list of selections, guess it could help ... have a nice end of evening ... :zzz 22/05/2008:Hibernian v Motherwell 13-9-1, odds = 2,1 17/05/2008:Bayern Munich v Hertha 8-2-0, odds = 1,4 11/05/2008:Benfica v Setubal 9-1-0, odds = 1,5 11/05/2008:Celtic v Hibernian 15-7-1, odds = 1,28 11/05/2008:Guimaraes v Est Amadora 8-0-1, odds = 1,4 10/05/2008:Club Brugge v Westerlo 9-1-0, odds = 1,5 10/05/2008:Hearts v Kilmarnock 16-7-2, odds = 1,7 10/05/2008:Rangers v Dundee United 14-3-4, odds = 1,3 07/05/2008:Bayern Munich v Bielefeld 7-0-0, odds = 1,4 07/05/2008:Rangers v Motherwell 21-2-2, odds = 1,3 04/05/2008:Arsenal v Everton 11-2-1, odds = 1,67 04/05/2008:Belenenses v Guimaraes 9-1-1, odds = 2,38 04/05/2008:Liverpool v Man City 8-0-1, odds = 1,73 04/05/2008:Maritimo v Leiria 10-2-0, odds = 1,44 03/05/2008:Man United v West Ham 10-0-2, odds = 1,18 02/05/2008:Montpellier v Le Havre 9-3-0, odds = 3 27/04/2008:Leverkusen v Wolfsburg 8-2-0, odds = 1,8 27/04/2008:Sp Lisbon v Maritimo 10-2-1, odds = 1,45 26/04/2008:Anderlecht v St Truiden 10-1-1, odds = 1,22 20/04/2008:Feyenoord v Roda JC 10-3-1, odds = 1,61 20/04/2008:Olympiakos v Iraklis 10-1-0, odds = 1,11 20/04/2008:Porto v Benfica 11-1-1, odds = 2 19/04/2008:Barcelona v Espanol 11-2-0, odds = 1,61 19/04/2008:Celtic v Aberdeen 23-1-2, odds = 1,3 19/04/2008:Fenerbahce v Denizlispor 10-1-0, odds = 1,25 19/04/2008:Germinal v St Truiden 11-1-0, odds = 1,73 13/04/2008:Anderlecht v Germinal 11-1-0, odds = 1,53 13/04/2008:PSV Eindhoven v Twente 12-2-0, odds = 1,55 12/04/2008:Sochaux v St Etienne 7-0-0, odds = 2,2 06/04/2008:Feyenoord v Utrecht 10-2-2, odds = 1,62 06/04/2008:Gaziantepspor v Ankaragucu 9-4-0, odds = 2,25 05/04/2008:Auxerre v Sochaux 9-0-0, odds = 2,4 05/04/2008:Celtic v Motherwell 18-4-2, odds = 1,29 05/04/2008:East Fife v Dumbarton 9-0-2, odds = 1,57 05/04/2008:Vitesse v Sparta 9-2-0, odds = 2 04/04/2008:Roda JC v Nijmegen 11-1-1, odds = 2,05 04/04/2008:Trabzonspor v Denizlispor 9-2-0, odds = 1,7 02/04/2008:Paris SG v Strasbourg 11-1-0, odds = 1,85 30/03/2008:Panathinaikos v Panionios 11-0-1, odds = 1,35 30/03/2008:Real Madrid v Sevilla 9-1-1, odds = 1,85 30/03/2008:Valencia v Mallorca 8-2-0, odds = 1,9 29/03/2008:Hearts v Dundee United 15-0-7, odds = 2,25 29/03/2008:Man United v Aston Villa 11-3-0, odds = 1,33 22/03/2008:Bayern Munich v Leverkusen 12-2-0, odds = 1,67 22/03/2008:Charleroi v Lokeren 9-0-2, odds = 2,2 22/03/2008:Clyde v Queen of Sth 12-3-2, odds = 2,63 22/03/2008:East Fife v Montrose 13-1-1, odds = 1,83 22/03/2008:Panathinaikos v Iraklis 9-2-0, odds = 1,25 22/03/2008:PSV Eindhoven v Groningen 10-2-0, odds = 1,45 22/03/2008:Rangers v Hibernian 18-2-3, odds = 1,33 16/03/2008:AEK v Aris 11-0-0, odds = 1,6 16/03/2008:Ajax v Willem II 13-1-0, odds = 1,2 12/03/2008:Celtic v Dundee United 19-4-0, odds = 1,25 08/03/2008:Auxerre v Lens 10-2-2, odds = 2,25 08/03/2008:Liverpool v Newcastle 11-2-1, odds = 1,4 08/03/2008:Montrose v East Stirling 14-5-2, odds = 1,5 08/03/2008:Real Madrid v Espanol 11-1-1, odds = 1,55 08/03/2008:Willem II v Groningen 12-0-0, odds = 2,75 05/03/2008:AEK v Xanthi 10-3-0, odds = 1,4 05/03/2008:Liverpool v West Ham 9-3-0, odds = 1,45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
methuselah Posted September 14, 2008 Share Posted September 14, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system I must say I noticed the discrepancy when you first posted but expected some sort of retraction. 43 winners at the full 2.50 = 64.5 pure profit .Then minus the 20 losers is only 44.5 profit. Probably 9 is nearer the true profit. You have most likely misplaced a decimal point, alas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted September 14, 2008 Author Share Posted September 14, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system I must say I noticed the discrepancy when you first posted but expected some sort of retraction. 43 winners at the full 2.50 = 64.5 pure profit .Then minus the 20 losers is only 44.5 profit. Probably 9 is nearer the true profit. You have most likely misplaced a decimal point, alas. As much as i'd like to use that as an excuse , i'm afraid it purely down to stupidity and over-excitement in that order. I've double-checked my figures [ something i already should have done before puting this down ] and both Seepps + Methuselah are quite correct , the true profit should have been 9.27 pts to a 1pt level win stake :$:$:$:$:$:$:$ How i didn't quite grasp the true figures before starting this thread i'll never know and what makes it worse is that i've posted it on a couple of other betting forums :$:$:$:$:$:$ I will still persevere with it , and if i can get the staking right it should prove profitable over time , just not as much as i thought :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted September 14, 2008 Share Posted September 14, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system Hey JTW1. I always try to bet at the best odds and to that end I have around 40 different bookie accounts out of which I would probably use 10 or 12 regularly. Please note that this is not in any way a criticism but I have noticed that the odds that you post are not always the best odds available and that I am regularly able to source better odds (sometimes more than 10%) e.g. RANGERS are 13-0-1 v Kilmarnock @ 1.25 - My bet placed at 1.33 with Pinnacle. P.S.V are 9-0-0 v Sparta @ 1.14 - My bet placed at 1.17 (approx) with Betfair. BARCELONA are 11-0-0 v Santander @ 1.28 - My bet placed at 1.3 with Ladbrokes. AJAX are 11-1-1 v Roda @ 1.33 - My bet placed at 1.36 with Betfred. If you were able to place your bets consistently at this higher level of odds your level of returns would be boosted and although I haven't worked out by how much, I do believe that it would be substantial, and that betting at the best odds can turn a marginally losing system into a winning one or a small winning system into a larger winning system. GL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted September 14, 2008 Author Share Posted September 14, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system Hi davidc , Glad you highlighted this as i don't think i've emphasised the fact that i look at the odds available on Betrescue and i post what i think the average odds are taking into account what i consider are the 'main' bookies e.g bet 365 ,ladbrokes , etc. This is just to give an idea of where the odds are for those games , i avail myself of the best odds with bookies or exchanges i have an account with . Thanks for the query mate , hope i've explained things ok :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted September 14, 2008 Author Share Posted September 14, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system RANGERS are 13-0-1 v Kilmarnock @ 1.25 2-1 :loon P.S.V are 9-0-0 v Sparta @ 1.14 1-0 :loon BARCELONA are 11-0-0 v Santander @ 1.28 1-1 :@ AJAX are 11-1-1 v Roda @ 1.33 1-0 :loon Certainly , considering the odds , there was no walkovers out of those 4 !! RANGERS / BARCELONA = -10PTS PSV / AJAX = +15.16PTS PROFIT/LOSS = - 4.84PTS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCtips Posted September 15, 2008 Share Posted September 15, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system jtw1, you're doing an incredible contribution with the systems you're sharing here :ok and this one surely sounds promising. Congratulations and wish you all the success! :cheers JC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted September 18, 2008 Author Share Posted September 18, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system Cheers JCtips :ok nice to have some positive feedback . 3 for the weekend - ANDERLECHT v charleroi 8-0-1 , odds = 1.33 [fri] SP LISBON v belenenses 11-0-0 , odds = 1.33 [sat] RANGERS v motherwell 18-1-0 , odds = 1.28 [sun] Stake 10pt treble with bet 365 odds returns = 22.64pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted September 21, 2008 Author Share Posted September 21, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system ANDERLECHT v charleroi 2-0 :loon SP LISBON v belenenses 2-0 :loon RANGERS v motherwell 2-1 :loon Stake 10pt treble with bet >365 odds returns = 22.64pts :ok Profit after 2 bets = 7.80 pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kamo Posted September 22, 2008 Share Posted September 22, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system Good luck with this mate :hope also with your other sytems too, I like the effort you put in :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted September 25, 2008 Author Share Posted September 25, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system Cheers KAMO , nice to get some feedback :ok PORTO v ferreira 7-0-0 , odds = 1.22 [fri] CELTIC v aberdeen 23-0-2 , odds = 1.33 [sat] CLUB BRUGGE v westerlo 10-1-0 , odds = 1.5 [sat] AJAX v vitesse 8-0-1 , odds = 1.22 [sun] 10pt treble - PORTO , CELTIC , AJAX returns 19.80pts 10pt single - CLUB BRUGGE returns 15pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted September 26, 2008 Author Share Posted September 26, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system Porto 2-0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted September 26, 2008 Share Posted September 26, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system good luck as always jtw! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted September 26, 2008 Author Share Posted September 26, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system Cheers ALIANDO :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted September 28, 2008 Author Share Posted September 28, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system PORTO v ferreira 2-0 :loon CELTIC v aberdeen 3-2 :loon CLUB BRUGGE v westerlo 2-0 :loon AJAX v vitesse 3-0 :loon 10pt treble - PORTO , CELTIC , AJAX returns 19.80pts :loon 10pt single - CLUB BRUGGE returns 15pts :loon PROFIT = +22.60PTS :ok Thats 10 winners from 11 selections Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sport guy Posted September 30, 2008 Share Posted September 30, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system hi jtw keep up the great work love looking at ur posts to see if we come up with the same tips Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted October 2, 2008 Author Share Posted October 2, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system Disappointingly there's only one game which meets the criteria this weekend and thats - REAL MADRID v espanyol 11-1-0 , odds = 1.33. 10pt win returns 13.33pts [bet 365 ] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 2, 2008 Share Posted October 2, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system mate, what does this mean I only considered those games where one side had a 7+ game h2h advantage over their opponents Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted October 2, 2008 Author Share Posted October 2, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system Basically it's where one side has won at least 7 games against that days opponents from at least the last 10 or more season's . e.g REAL MADRID have beaten Espanyol 11 times from their last 12 fixtures in MADRID. So providing the winning gap is 7 games or more , eg 7-0-0 , 8-1-0 , 9-0-1 etc then that side qualifies for selection . Hope that helps mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 2, 2008 Share Posted October 2, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system ah ok - how many games back do you look at? last 10? last 20? last 50? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted October 5, 2008 Author Share Posted October 5, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system Usually the last 10 mate :ok REAL MADRID v espanyol 2-2 Profit = 12.60pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LAY IT ON ME Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system Hi jtw1 Are Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LAY IT ON ME Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system OOOOOOOOOooooooooooooooooooops pressed the wrong key,sorry jtw1 Are you backing the bold team(s) to win,or are you laying the draw or what? Thx. LIOM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LAY IT ON ME Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system Sók now. I understand...............It was the 2-2 draw that threw me,you showed a profit figure and I assumed(incorrectly)that it was the profit for that particular bet,whereas it was the running total. Sorry for being a bit dim. LIOM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted October 16, 2008 Author Share Posted October 16, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system 5 Qualifiers over the weekend . ARSENAL v everton 11-1-0 , odds = 1.36 PARMA v empoli 7-0-0 , odds = 2.3 FIORENTINA v reggina 7-0-0 , odds = 1.44 AJAX v groningen 8-1-0 , odds = 1.61 NEC v vitesse 9-1-0 , odds = 1.6 [sunday] So , for me its - 10pt double ARSENAL / FIORENTINA 10pt wins on AJAX , NEC + PARMA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted October 18, 2008 Author Share Posted October 18, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system 5 Qualifiers over the weekend . ARSENAL v everton 11-1-0 , odds = 1.36 PARMA v empoli 7-0-0 , odds = 2.3 FIORENTINA v reggina 7-0-0 , odds = 1.44 AJAX v groningen 8-1-0 , odds = 1.61 NEC v vitesse 9-1-0 , odds = 1.6 [sunday] So , for me its - 10pt double ARSENAL / FIORENTINA 10pt wins on AJAX , NEC + PARMA ARSENAL 3-1 :loon FIORENTINA 3-0 :loon AJAX 1-0 :loon PARMA 1-0 :loon SELECTIONS = 14 WINS = 12 PROFIT = 51.86pts :drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sport guy Posted October 18, 2008 Share Posted October 18, 2008 Re: 7's or better h2h system well done mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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