The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 4.40 Newmarket (Class 3)

This is such a difficult race, a case can be made for most of the runners.

However there will be plenty of overpriced horses due to the favourite counting for the majority of the market.

I backed Mad Rush on both his handicaps last season. Despite finishing 2nd each time he lost nothing in defeat. The first come against Greek Envoy who was running off 84, he went down by half a length. He was dropped back to 10f for that which is definitely too short for him, he was catching the winner (who started this season on a mark of 104!) all the way to the line.

Despite a 5lb hike I lumped on NTO at 11/2. He went clear with the line in sight, I was stunned when he was caught right on the line. I actually think Ted Durcan was caught napping, although only Ryan Moore would've got Hi Calypso up.

Hi Calypso won a Group 3 and a Group 2 after that, so the fact that Mad Rush gave him 4lb and should've beaten him really makes him a horse to follow this year.

Mad Rush was unlucky against two horses that went on significantly, he has only been raised 3lb since and is a cert to win soon.

He split a pastern after so hasn't been seen for 331 days. He is fine now by all accounts but obviously race fitness is a worry. He still has to be backed though, if he needs it but runs well then you can have your house on him NTO and re-coup all the losses.

Stable form is a worry, 0-18 past fortnight, although unlike many I'm not convinced that the yard's horses always need the run. Last year Cumani's S/R for 3/4yo’s was 20%, FTO 3/4yo’s was 19%.

Shela House has been a big drifter on both starts this season and has run as if coming to hand. Definitely races in him, and I think he'll strike soon, but this may be too hot at this stage in his career.

Candle is versatile with regards to ground. Solid last year and goes well fresh.

Maslak won a poor race at Chester and I can't see him winning off 89.

Mikao has a 312 record FTO over the past three seasons and was even 5th (100/1) on his racecourse debut, yard's runners rarely show anything on their racecourse debut. Even the yard's best horse in recent years (Even Top) was 6th of 8 FTO. A real indication of how well Mikao runs when fresh.

Ollie George runs off a 2lb lower mark than when touched off at Salisbury last May. Only one run in a year though and that was only an average effort.

Rajeh looks outclassed.

Prince Sabaah had dropped to a fair mark and was only just touched off at York. That was a weaker race than this and first time cheekpieces and a 1 race win record is enough to discount here.

Know The Law starts the season on a fair mark, 4lb higher than when a runaway winner on the dirt. Well handicapped on some of his maiden form and wouldn’t be surprised if he finds or two this season.

Punjabi will be fancied by many no doubt. His claims are plain to see. He was decent on the flat a couple of years ago, has improved vastly over hurdles since yet runs here off a similar mark to what he ran off two years ago on the level. Didn’t have a hard season over jumps and shrewd yard obviously think he can exploit his low flat rating. I may regret opposing him, but I think there is better value elsewhere, his price reflects his chance – no more, no less. He isn’t my sort of bet.

Mad Rush 75% of stake 11/4 Hills Shela House 15% of stake 20 betfair

Know The Law 5% of stake 50 betfair Mikao 2.5% of stake 34 betfair

Candle 2.5% of stake 42 betfair

Casts:

Mad Rush/Shela House/Know The Law/Mikao/Candle

£3 F/C Comb (20 bets)

Mad Rush with Shela House/Know The Law/Mikao/Candle

4x £5 RFC’S

Mad Rush/Shela House/Know The Law/Mikao/Candle

65p T/C Comb (60 bets)

Punjabi with Mad Rush/Shela House/Know The Law/Mikao/Candle

60x £1 T/C’s

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Shela House shortened right up on betfair, but I wouldn't be surprised if he went out again. 16/1 available fixed odds anyway.

[Sm0k3rZ]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) had a big punt on mad rush :S

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

had a big punt on mad rush :S

You woz robbed.

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Will summarise later. Gutted about Mad Rush. I made the correct choice, backed the right horse at the right price but didn't collect. 90% of punters would bet 1/3 him in a match with the winner NTO (same weights). Anyway on with today... 3.15 Catterick (Class 3) If Phluke is none the worse for yesterday's outing then I think he must go close in this. Scroll up and check yesterday's post for reasoning as I highlighted his chances for this race then. I don't know why connections run him yesterday. He was switched off fairly early though and I don't think he had a hard race, you can never tell if a horse can run to form in these instances though. A definite bet however, as I believe he'll win if all is well. He has won on firm ground in the past. Phluke 100% of stake 3.75 betfair

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 4.10 Haydock (Class 3) They go 13.5 bar three on betfair for this and I believe two of those at the head of the market have real chances here. Kal Barg 2yo form was decent, he won his 2nd start beating Prohibit before finishing 3rd in the nursery that Ibn Khaldun won. We know that was an above average nursery (to say the least), so it was no surprise Kal Barg won his next nursery off the same mark. He started the season 9lb higher (89) and I think that is a fair mark. I thought he'd run well FTO this year and was a little disappointed with his run (6th to Huzzah). However, the run is far better than it looked at the time. I thought the race was ok (Generous Thought in 2nd who I rate), but it worked out even better. 1st, 3rd, 5th, 9th all won and the 2nd and 4th ran very well NTO too. Stable have really fired of late and it looks a matter of time before Kal Barg wins. This may be the last time you'll see him run off a mark in the 80s. Another decent 2yo was Cape Vale and he is a horse I like a lot. I believe he could be Listed+ class in the future. Unbeaten at two, I decided only to watch him on his first start this year, thinking the 5f was too sharp. That was indeed the case, although he ran a cracker to finish 4/16 (Hamish McGonagall 2nd). I had a big bet on him NTO (back over 6f) and he finished strongly just failing to get up in a photo. Another stride and he was the winner. Tries 7f for the first time and I believe he'll improve for it. Up 4lb for the latest effort but could still be ahead of the handicapper. Kal Barg and Cape Vale met when both were making their 2yo debuts. Cape Vale was victorious by 1.5l (and is 2lb better off today), but Kal Barg wasn't given a hard time, had the worse of the draw and was hampered inside the last. I couldn't split them on their other form and this run proves there is little between them. Flowing Cape was 2nd to Kal Barg LTO and run Stimulation close. Good jockey booking. Would probably have a saver if it were trained by someone else. I'm a bigger fan of gas bills than I am Reg Hollinshead. Kal Barg 50% of stake 4.3 betfair Cape Vale 50% of stake 4.6 betfair Casts: Kal Barg/Cape Vale £35 RFC Kal Barg/Cape Vale/Flowing Cape £5 F/C Comb Kal Barg/Cape Vale/Flowing Cape £5 T/C Comb Kal Barg/Cape Vale/Blue Sky Basin £5 T/C Comb Kal Barg/Cape Vale/Fervant Prince £6.50 T/C Comb

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 3.20 Newmarket (Class 2) Decided late to play in this, taking a chance with a few fair priced runners. Write-up will be brief, sorry. I want to take on Prohibit off his current mark and Ancien Regime on this ground. I backed Fol Hollow on both his starts this season, he ran a cracker here from the front FTO but flopped LTO on easier ground at Sandown. I was impressed with him late last season and his final 2yo has worked out well. Will like the going here. Brassini was very impressive LTO at Lingfield, raised 9lb but still well handicapped on his early 2yo form. Opus Maximus battled well LTO and I've backed in once or twice this year. I like him and think he may win more races. Only a 4lb hike for his win LTO. Quest For Success made a pleasing return and is overpriced. Fol Hollow 35% of stake 15 betfair Brassini 30% of stake 11 betfair Opus Maximus 30% 12 betfair Quest For Success 5% of stake 42 betfair

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Casts: Fol Hollow/Brassini/Opus Maximus/Quest For Success £8.25 F/C Comb £4.10 T/C Comb

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 4.35 Newmarket (Class 3) Another tough 3yo affair and no surprise to see them go over 4/1 the field on betfair. Again going for value with some speculative selections. Irish Mayhem's win LTO has worked out well (3rd/4th won NTO). Yadree was a SH behind him - a 1lb pull and the benefit of a run may be enough for him to turn the tables. Is priced to do so though. Born Tobouggie had a tough task LTO taking on Ella in bottomless ground. She lost nothing in defeat and remains interesting, although I think she may need a fillies only race in order to win in this grade. House Of Lords was well fancied on his debut and won with a bit in hand. Ran better than the formline suggests at Kempton LTO and although this is tougher he is a big price. I backed Masaalek LTO and his maiden for is solid, deserves to be favourite, has obvious chances but for me the handicapper could've been a little kinder though. Yaddree 50% of stake 6 betfair Born Tobouggie 30% of stake 10.5 betfair Irish Mayhem 10% of stake 19.5 betfair House Of Lords 10% of stake 42 betfair Casts Yaddree/Born Tobouggie/Irish Mayhem/House Of Lords £8.25 F/C Comb £4.10 T/C Comb

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Friday 1/2 (-0.8pts) - Big Noise looked in need of the run but the saver Plum Pudding won thankfully. I beat the odds massively by taking 8 on betfair (returned 7/2).

Gutted with Mad Rush, switched inside, then outside, that gave Punjabi first run and he went 3 or 4 clear inside the last. Mad Rush finished like a train and went down by a neck only, so unlucky. The saving T/C copped but I made a miscalculation and the bet still lost.

Saturday 1/4 (-1pts) - Thought Phluke was given a shocking ride by Hayley Turner. I've already said more than once recently that she isn't the same girl this year, however she appears to be regressing every week. Come from way off the pace which isn't his style, finished full of running beaten 0.75l.

Took a chance in the 3.20 going for value but was hopeful more than confident.

Wanted to take on Ancien Regime on the ground, that was a mistake obviously! Not sure he did like the firm going to be fair though, he hung/drifted badly inside the final 1.5f- was good enough to win despite it though. All my bets were beaten before the start; Opus Maximus sweating badly and refusing to load, front runner Fol Hollow rearing badly and clanging about in the stalls, he missed the break, Brassini drifted badly almost doubling in price on betfair in the five mins prior to the race.

Another narrow loser in the 4.10 with Kal Barg just failing to get up in a photo, he was flying at the finish. He took a bash inside the last and it could’ve cost him.

Yaddree won well for the final bet, beating the odds nicely again. Born Tobouggie ran well, just out of the frame, her time will come in a fillies race I’m certain. House Of Lords was also just only out the frame at a huge price.

Can’t believe I’ve shown a loss over the pass two days. Would’ve not been the case had either of Mad Rush, Phluke or Kal Barg won. The judgement side of things were spot on though (bar the 3.20 Newmarket). It was just a case of poor fortune - if those races where run again tomorrow I wouldn’t alter my selections.

[Gingertipster]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Value is everything mate. Get that and profit will eventually follow. Ginge

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 2008 Upper Class Selections Bets : 63 Winning Bets : 35 (56% S/R) Collected Bets : 36 (57% S/R) Staked : 63pts Returns : 80.4pts P/L : + 17.4pts Yield : 28% ----------------- Upper Class F/C's Bets : 51 Winning Bets : 14 S/R : 27% Staked : £5100 Returns : £5692.51 P/L : +£592.51 Yield : 12% Upper Class T/C's Bets : 44 Winning Bets : 5 S/R : 11% Staked : £4400 Returns : £2774.57 P/L : -£1625.43 The casts continue to be up and down. I said at the start of this experiment I stake twice as much on the F/C as I do on the T/C. There will always be swings on these bets and can't be judged till season end - I have a large bank for these, it's the only way.

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Being a workaholic I've been going through results, again. Like all of us, I don't like it when a selection drifts drastically on the exchanges or on-course. Thankfully it doesn't happen a lot with my selections but thought I'd do some research anyway. Looking at prices taken, from the 29 winners where I had suggested a price I've beaten the SP 79% of the time (23/29). The average price taken of all those 29 runners is 11% bigger than SP. Given that the average price is 11/2 we're talking over half a point. Of the six that did returned bigger, it was only a slight drift (0.6 on average). Will continue this with ALL selections when I get the time.

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 3.30 Newmarket I've been waiting until the last minute to play today due to the ground. Apparently it's still good despite them taking the top off quite a bit. The times would suggest that the going to no faster than good at the moment, it could deteriate later maybe. Not a great field here but two very interesting runners. Bronze Cannon was part of a winning bet for me LTO and that form has been franked by Doctor Freemantle. I liked Bronze Cannon's 2yo runs, he did well to figure and win over 7 and 8f and I was convinced he'd improve for the step up to 10 and maybe 12f at three. That was the case and he managed to get the better of Doctor Fremantle despite his rider dropping his right hand reign. Although I'm not sure the form can be taken too literally, it wasn't the first time Doctor Fremante was out-battled, but you'd think he'll be a runner off a 10lb higher mark in this grade. The other interesting runner is Love Galore. He ran well on his debut, trying to make all at Newbury, he followed up with an easy win in Scotland at odds on. He started this season off 88 and I thought that was a fair mark. He ran in a Listed event FTO, he was weak in the market, pulled hard, but still managed to finish 2nd to stable mate Captain Webb. Beating horses rated in the 90s and one rated 100 he proved that the mark of 88 could be lenient - no surprise that the handicapper raised him 2lb. Shame there isn't a bigger field as this bet isn't great value but I believe theses are two horses that are running in grades below their ability. Woolfall Treasure has done nothing wrong and would come into the calculations if this were your average class 2 affair. Bronze Cannon 55% of stake 1.8 betfair Love Galore 45% of stake 4.5 betfair Casts: Bronze Cannon/Love Galore £50 RFC

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) 4.05 Newmarket Some old friends line up here. Running out of time so I'm going to concentate on who I think are the most interesting runners here. Cape, Express Wish, Premier Loco, and Baby Strange. I backed Baby Strange when he won LTO and when he was 3rd prior at 33/1. I was certain he was about to striker form. Still well handicapped on old form despite a 5lb higher mark. The reason he took my eye this year was because he finished 2nd to Cape in April. That race really worked out well. They both came from way off the pace and I was convinced that both could win soon. Cape is better off in the weights here despite winning. Express Wish did reasonably well at three and I wouldn't be surprised if he did well in sprint handicaps this season. He ran a cracker LTO at Doncaster finished 2nd on the wrong side after taking them along. I think he will win a handicap off his current mark. Premier Loco looked progressive last season but he is far from certain to appreciate the step down in trip. Even his trainer thinks he is a 7f/mile horse. Interesting this year though. Express Wish 35% of stake 6.2 betfair Cape 35% of stake 5.9 betfair Baby Strange 30% of stake 6.8 betfair Casts: Express Wish/Cape/Baby Strange £16.50 F/C Comb £9.15 T/C Comb Express Wish/Cape/Baby Strange/Premier Loco/Ajigolo 75p T/C Comb (60 bets)

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

4.05 Newmarket Express Wish/Cape/Baby Strange/Premier Loco/Ajigolo 75p T/C Comb (60 bets)

:wall:@:wall:@:wall:@:wall:@:wall:@:wall:@ 1-2-4-5 (I think) Would've been a £1000 T/C. Winner at 25s. Should've apportioned a % on it.

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Sunday 1/2 (-1.01pts) - Went with the wrong one in the 3.30 but the bet broke level. I went in at the perfect time and got 4/5 about Bronze Cannon. Had they been the SP prices earlier I wouldn't have played in the race. Didn't like the way Love Galore finished his race, a line through his name for me from now on.

Bitterly disappointed with the 4.05. Backed the 2nd, 4th and 6th, all run well. I made the winner a danger but didn't have a saver despite it being around 40 on betfair at the time of posting. I did include it in the T/C bet though, that just made things worse as I had 1-2-4, would've been a monster pay-out. Again I left the winner out of the F/C bet, I don't know why, the exacta was well over £300.

Four near misses from the five losing bets since Friday, as ever, it proves things are working.

---------

Although there looks some cracking bet in maidens tomorrow there is just the one big handicap, the Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar. Like I say, just the one race so I'll do a run down on each runner. I wrote this last night, but I didn't think there was any value in the betfair market, decided to wait - all my selections are bigger now thankfully.

3.30 Redcar (Heritage Class 2)

Smart Enough - Although he got his head infront finally last year I expected a better year from him. Two poor runs this season (blinkers on LTO), no headgear today which tells me connections are guessing with him at the moment. Doubtful stayer at this trip, especially as he'll probably try and make the pace.

Docofthebay - Enjoyed a very consistent career so far, he made the frame in each of his first 12 races, winning four times. There are too many decent runs last year so can't talk about all of them, but he proved he was still well weighted when he ran at Ascot in late September. He had the worst of the draw and was well behind before running on strongly to finish a length behind Candito Roy off 98.

He ran off the same mark in the Cambridgeshire and it was no surprise that he went close, he again had the worse of the draw, he again was well behind and he was slightly hampered when making his challenge - he finished a length behind Pipedreamer in 2nd. The handicapper HAD to act, he was raise 5lb which was more than fair. His only unplaced efforts to date have been his last two starts; the first last season in a Group 3 on soft ground, wasn't disgraced however (6/13) as he was the lowest on official ratings. The five runner affair LTO wouldn't have suited in the slightest but again wasn't disgraced despite finishing a close up 4th of 5.

Without doubt fairly treated but these big handicaps are never easy to win with those sorts of handicap marks. Other negatives are the trip, his running style, getting a run is always tricky in these events, and although he has great handicap form he has never carried chunks of weight - he isn't the biggest.

Grand Passion - Been a long time since he has run in a handicap like this and I'm not sure it's going to suit. Solid under his conditions but doesn't look well treated enough to take this.

Re Barolo - Tailed on his only turf start (soft) this season but done well on the dirt since coming over from Italy. Only 1lb higher than when beateing Plum Pudding in March but I think he could've been flattered by that given that Plum Pudding isn't at his best around a bend.

Monte Alto - Conditions will suit (10f form: 31221) and stable are starting to hit form. 5lb better off for 3l with Docofthebay on the Cambridgeshire run. Could reverse the form especially as trainers thinks it was a mistake to run in that and that he was perhaps over the top by then (although a line through Teslin suggests he didn't run below form). Cumani thinks he could be a Listed horse, although he may be a little under-priced.

Snoqualmie Boy - Inconsistent but capable on his day. Well handicapped on the best of his form. Runs for his 4th trainer in his last five races. Didn't show on first run for new yard LTO despite being backed. Both wins and best form is at 10f 4131674264, from the eight defeats one was on his racecourse debut, one was in a Group 2 and two were in Group 1's. Excluding the Group races and his debut his 10f turf form in the UK reads 1142. Could spring a surprise if he still retains his ability, we just don't know - his last run wouldn't suggest so but that was on A/W and we was beaten at 4/6 on the dirt on his last try. The price could be big enough to take the gamble on whether or not he retains any of his ability.

First Buddy - Couldn't have been more impressive in his last two starts but the reality is he has been raised 18lb for winning two egg 'n spoon races (although had to rise in the weights to run in this). Likely to be taken on for the lead here and it isn't easy to lead all the way here, especially in this. The last ten leaders of this race have finished 11th, 17th, 2nd, 11th, 13th, 2nd, 10th, 10th, 5th(of 8), 7th(of 8).

Those prominent/close up when there were big fields also faired poorly (no winners, most unplaced).

Rio Riva - Ran below form every time when tackling distances over a mile. Ground could be too lively for him these days. Don't rate his trainer and I think she is campaigning him terribly.

Heaven Knows - Was gelded over the winter and I expect it's do or die for him this year. Personally I think he is one of the most over rated horses in training, he always seems to be fancied for decent handicaps. Powerful connections still persevering with him so they must think he can win a fair prize. His target is apparently the John Smith's at York in July. Apparently needs easier ground at trainers hasn't ruled out a return to 11 or 12f. 10f on this ground could be a bit quick for him.

Smart Instinct - Failed to run a bad race last season in top handicaps. Dropped in the weights a little and sure to find life easier this season. I think he could win a decent prize this season, especially now he is running at an appropriate trip. I backed him LTO and he was well backed, so a big run was expected so will not necessarily come on for the run. Cheekpieces back on here so they must've been a little disappointed with his 4th LTO. Entitled to go close.

Capable Guest - Run a shocker LTO at York (Smart Instinct 4th) on his 2nd attempt at this trip. You'd need a crystal ball to predict him winning.

Fragrancy - Trainer seems to think she'll be better than handicap class and I wouldn't disagree. Definitely well handicapped (91) and will love the ground - would be my main bet if this were a mile event. All form is at a mile and Jarvis has said that he believes a mile is her trip. Breeding and her sole 2yo run would suggest that 10f wouldn't be a problem though.

Jewelled Dagger - Ran well behind Laa Rayb last week but possibly flattered. Another that won't get his own way in front.

Yarqus - Well handicapped on best form; 2lb higher than when 5th in the Hunt Cup and 1lb higher than when 4th in the Cambridgeshire. 13lb better off for 1.75l with Docofthebay and 14lb better off for beating Monte Alto in the same race. 8lb and 9lb if you discount his riders claim. Also done well to run King Of Dixie so close on his penultimate start off similar weights. Stays this trip and cheekpieces replace blinkers here. Obviously claims and overpriced, but this is a Clive Brittain horse - anything can happen, you can never tell with him. Not a fan of the jock either.

Fort Churchill - Not that harshly treated and probably should be the price his is (119/1 currently). However, has run below form every run when fresh.

Monte Alto is the one that I've dropped out, just think he is underpriced and as I'm backing a few I have to go with the value.

Docofthebay 30% of stake 9.8 betfair

Snoqualmie Boy 20% of stake 25 betfair

Smart Instinct 20% of stake 8.2 betfair

Fragrancy 20% of stake 11/2 hills Yarqus 10% of stake 30 betfair

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Casts: Docofthebay/Fragrancy/Smart Instinct/Snoqualmie Boy/Yarqus £5 F/C Comb (20 bets) Docofthebay/Monte Alto/Fragrancy/Smart Instinct £1 T/C Comb (24 bets) Docofthebay/Monte Alto/Fragrancy/Smart Instinct/Snoqualmie Boy/Yarqus 50p T/C Comb (120 bets) Docofthebay/Fragrancy/Smart Instinct/Snoqualmie Boy/Yarqus 25p T/C Comb (60 bets)

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Typical Mick Channon. Funny how they always pop in at big prices isn't?Impossible to fancy, 12th of 12 LTO beaten 17l (Smart Instinct in 4th) - but backed 40s to 25s. HAS to get a pull for this. Mine finished 2nd,4th,5th,6th. T/C bet finished 2nd,3rd,4th,5th,6th. Take the winner out and I have the first five home! So close without winning Fri/Sat/Sun/Mon with singles and casts. Matter of time.....

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Unlucky Billy, very very unlucky. . . one of these days.

[bowles10]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) I backed Capable Guest the time before last Billy & thought it ran well over an inadequate trip at Thirsk (1m), obviously last time was a no show but Channon has won the 2 big handicpas this weekend both paying 25's, not too bad! Unlucky with your's, i backed Docofthebay which definitely has a race in it this year perhaps over a straighter course.

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Yes Docofthebay really deserves a nice prize, I think he'll have to look for it outside of handicap company now though. Capable Guest did run well at Thirsk but I couldn't have it at the trip, especially after last time. I'm not a fan of the horse either, the biggest lay bet I ever struck was when he was 4/9 as a 2yo (beaten). He has paid me back for that today though! Four in thee first five home two races running :@ You were very unlucky with the place bet. At no time did it look like he was going to be unplaced.

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Sunday 1/2 (-1.01pts) - Went with the wrong one in the 3.30 but the bet broke level. I went in at the perfect time and got 4/5 about Bronze Cannon. Had they been the SP prices earlier I wouldn't have played in the race. Didn't like the way Love Galore finished his race, a line through his name for me from now on.

Bitterly disappointed with the 4.05. Backed the 2nd, 4th and 6th, all run well. I made the winner a danger but didn't have a saver despite it being around 40 on >betfair at the time of posting. I did include it in the T/C bet though, that just made things worse as I had 1-2-4, would've been a monster pay-out. Again I left the winner out of the F/C bet, I don't know why, the exacta was well over £300.

Four near misses from the five losing bets since Friday, as ever, it proves things are working.

Monday 0/1 (-1pt) - The near misses continued, with both the singles and the casts. Had three in the first four home for the 2nd consecutive bet. My T/C selections in the sole race today finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th. My single selections finished 2rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 8th. IMPOSSIBLE to find the winner and him landing a gamble is a disgrace. Again, happy with the judgement though, not just by going close but by reading the race correctly (ie impossible to lead all the way etc). 2008 Upper Class Selections Bets : 66 Winning Bets : 35 (53% S/R) Collected Bets : 37 (56% S/R) Staked : 66pts Returns : 81.39pts P/L : + 15.39pts Yield : 23% ----------------- Upper Class F/C's Bets : 54 Winning Bets : 14 S/R : 26% Staked : £5400 Returns : £5692.51 P/L : +£292.51 Yield : 5% Upper Class T/C's Bets : 46 Winning Bets : 5 S/R : 10% Staked : £4600 Returns : £2774.57 P/L : -£1825.43 The casts continue to be up and down. I said at the start of this experiment I stake twice as much on the F/C as I do on the T/C. There will always be swings on these bets and can't be judged till season end - I have a large bank for these, it's the only way. --------- Despite losing 3.81pts between Fri-Mon, I don't think I done anything wrong, the season is two months old now and I'm still happy with things obviously. I stake quite a fair amount per point on these (and claimers) so 15pts+ profit is pleasing. Hoping to get the yield upto over 30% though. For me, what's more pleasing is how well the losers have run. You're going to have losers, that is a fact, but when they run well in defeat you know losing bets are going to be the minority. Although there are some decent Class 4/0-85's tomorrow there is nothing for this thread till Wednesday/Thursday.

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread)

Billy, interesting stuff, just gone through the whole thread again, something I like to do once a thread has some history, I feel its good to have an overview of things. Plenty of winners since you re-thought your strategy, just wondered if you think its working ok? Something i did notice is that a fair few of your 'saver' bets have gone in which although its nice to have a winner I cant help thinking i'd be disappointed that the horse with the most money on got beat. The reason I mention this is because i also noticed about 75% of the time the biggest % of your stake goes on the shortest price horse, is this a true reflection of your thoughts about a race or do the prices sway you in any way to have the biggest bet on the most fancied horse. I know many that back more than one in a race tend to have their banker as the fav, i also feel this is where some punters go wrong and miss out on some good profits because of it. Dont get me wrong, its no problem if you actually think the short one has the best chance. I like to think of it in reverse sometimes, have a good bet on a say 6/1 shot and cover my bets if the fav beats it. I would also be interested to know how you would be doing if you had level stakes, you have had some nice priced winners yet sometimes the reward has been disappointing. Anyway you seem to be doing very well, just thought your views and thoughts would be interesting to hear. Great game this aint it!

1pt per race apportioned to my staking plan %'s (as it is now): P/L : +15.39pts Yield : 23% 1pt per RACE evenly apportioned to each selection: P/L : +14.43pts Yield : 22% 1pt per SELECTION (1-6pts staked per race): P/L : +13.48 Yield : 7% Not a great deal of difference Graham, but at the moment my current method is just edging it. (the first two methods are the only realistic options)

[BillyHills]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Thanks Billy, quite surprised by the findings to be honest. Just shows your % shareout is about right then, which is good to know I imagine. Off topic slightly, this weather in the UK is a nightmare at the minute, we could have a repeat of last year where we were getting soft ground at one end of the country and firm at the other. Its no wonder the Clerks cant get the watering right is it? Too many NR's, unsettled betting markets, its not getting any easier. I think it only adds more credit to those can make a profit at the moment. Good stuff!

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Cheers mate. Yes I'm pleased that my current staking method is showing the best results, although if I'm honest I would hope there would be more of a difference. Will continue to monitor this. Correct about the going, it hasn't been easy. Not only is it more difficult to assess form, I have to totally change tactics. At times recently I've been unable to do any forward studying. I usally do 90% of studying the night before. When there is uncertainty with the going I cannot do this. Last Sunday at Newmarket a prime example. I knew I was betting in the sprint but could only cast half an eye over the race the night before. I wanted to wait until after the first race before I made any final decisions. As a result I spent less than an hour on the race, not ideal. Mistakes happen that way, and I believe I did make an error. I included the winner 25/1 winner in a T/C bet but not in a F/C or single bet. Very unlike me and after the race I struggled to find a reason why I selected like I did. It was all a bit of a rush and I think I may've made a profit on the race had I been able to carry out my normal routine.

[Gingertipster]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) The softer going has caused me problems in the past. Just as I decide to up the stakes it returns. Thought about dropping back to my old levels until it changes. But will give it a go tomorrow and will go from there. Last Newbury meeting where the going was described overnight as good. The forecast was not bad but the south west and south east were forecast plenty of rain (cental south not much at all). If it missed Newbury altogether it would've been good-firm, yet if it got the drenching forecast for other parts of the south it'd be soft. Was a nightmare trying to study the night before (had no time in the morning as was going to Newbury). The handicaps were impossible so concentrated on the Group races and maidens. Ended up with three wins from five races! Ginge

[Gingertipster]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) What do you think abouit the Sandown evening card Billy?

[billy the punter]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Think it's a great card. Just going through it now, going to Great Leighs tomorrow so want to get all studying done before the morning. Think I'll be playing in the first and last race. Will be watching the pattern races with interest without getting involved. However Pipedreamer and Lucarno did me so many favours last season I may support them with an interest bet, they were both in my initial ten to follow short list of 30 odd.

[Gingertipster]

Re: The Upper Classes (a BTP specialisation thread) Three horses running tomorrow are in one of my tote ten to follow lists, Pipedreamer, Lucarno and Royal And Regal. Concerned about stamina doubts with the former, going up in trip and on soft going too, whether it will be too much of a stamina test. Have saved on him. Might not be far enough even with the soft ground for Lucarno. Suspect this is being used as a pipe opener for more prestigeous events to come. Yet to race on soft although has a round action so it should suit. Really fancy Royal And Regal but there are more prominent runners this time to take him on. The other Savill runner is my main bet. Going to Great Leighs, don't bother? I'd turn for Esher if I were you, then make your way to Goodwood. Ginge