Six Nations 2008

[Big Bets]

Re: Six Nations 2008 I like the look of the Welsh backilne but this will come down to the old adage - your pack wins the game and the backs determine by how much. In saying this, the Poms should absolutely monster the Welsh pack, and if Johnny's boot is consistent should see them win by a decent margin. Nice stats Wumpking. Ireland might have a good record in the 6 Nations pie chucker, but does this record really stand for much when their recent international form has been worse than woeful?? Their World Cup form was nothing short of embarrasing and they simply dont have the cattle to compete against France or England. Ireland need the impressive Alan Gaffney in some sort of capacity and they need him fast. The Aussie coach has a great raport with his players and Irish Rugby could use his intellect and people management skills.

[Mr Wall]

Re: Six Nations 2008

You put your case well Mr.Wall in answer to my observations of the Welsh tactics. I still expect Wales to do what I said' date=' but let's see. One other consideration has now come into contention . . the weather. If the bad weather does arrive in London and slows down the game then the 12pts may become a little tight. I am expecting a lot of counter attacks from England, and if the pitch becomes heavy it may lessen the chances. I would go no more than 12pts, even though the price is a bit better for 14.5 Rat. But good luck anyway.[/quote'] I'm arguing in my own head one way or the other. Like I said I don't think I would touch this one with a barge pole, to many dependants 1) Can the Welsh front 5 compete with the english? parity would suit wales 2) Can an inexperienced english backrow (at 6 and 8 - the vital positions in contact/rucking areas) compete with teh experience and power of ryan jones and jonathon thomas? 3) Both teams are dodgy in the lineout? who will fail more? 4) 13 Ospreys - will it mean them not upping their game as it wont feel as much of an international or will their experience together help? 5) Balshaw? will he buckle or hold up to pressure 6) Defence. A new defensive coach with a huge reputation and all ospreys playing the same way he coaches means it could be more promising, but it is still new to them in edwards methods. 7) Shane. awesome in attack but when teh volcano comes on can he hold him back? 8) Can flood cope with henson against him? 9) Can hook and phillips control a game? 10) which Byrne will turn up? the consistant one of this season or the nightmare one of last? and there are many other variables, the wingers kicking game - neither sides wingers have one so which could cope, etc etc etc If a gun was held to my head i would say england by 10 - 12, but I wouldnt want to stake money on it. Not trying to prove anyone right or wrong, just saying I am keeping my distance from betting. For a more worthwhile bet I just heard that shane williams is 2/1 to finish welsh top try scorer. The only other potential for me is parker as henson is playing 12 and does a good job of setting his 13 up, but with shanklin likely to get at least a start or 2 and mark jones never looking for work i think shane is the only man

[Mr Wall]

Re: Six Nations 2008 Have thought and rethought my comments re the scotland france game and as the betting seems to have to France -4 I would bet a lot of money on this. Yes they are new and scotland are a settled team, but settled at what? Stats are simple for me. France were world cup semi finalists, perennial contenders for the championship and even with a new team have players to create something from nothing (clerc., traille, elissade) Scotland are consistantly losing. I don't care how settled the team is the only game they won last season was home to wales where, even for a bad welsh team, they had a nightmare rather than scotland winning it. They have been trounced by all their tri nations opponents. they lost to italy in the 6n and only beat them with 6 penalties in the WC (and then only just). They seem to have developed a reputation but as I see it they have an average pack and are very weak at 10, 12, 13. the french have said they are looking to play expansive rugby and I expect them to cut loose and end up winning by 15 or so. The only question mark for me on this will be the weather

[kevshat]

Re: Six Nations 2008

I like the look of the Welsh backilne but this will come down to the old adage - your pack wins the game and the backs determine by how much. In saying this, the Poms should absolutely monster the Welsh pack, and if Johnny's boot is consistent should see them win by a decent margin. Nice stats Wumpking. Ireland might have a good record in the 6 Nations pie chucker, but does this record really stand for much when their recent international form has been worse than woeful?? Their World Cup form was nothing short of embarrasing and they simply dont have the cattle to compete against France or England. Ireland need the impressive Alan Gaffney in some sort of capacity and they need him fast. The Aussie coach has a great raport with his players and Irish Rugby could use his intellect and people management skills.

:welcome to PL Big Bets. Nice 1st post :ok

[SteveO]

Re: Six Nations 2008 The more I've studied the England v Wales match less convinced I am of a performance from the Welsh to stay within the handicap. England's pack are way too powerful and it hurt's me to say this but we are going to get battered. England now as low as -11 on the handicap and this surely is a stand out bet. Advised bet 10pts win england -11

[Mr Wall]

Re: Six Nations 2008 I suppose after all my talk I should say what I am betting on. 1) medium stake england, france and irish wins @ 1.88 2) BIG stake france handicap win on -4 @ 2.00 3) top wales try scorer, large stake - shane williams - 2.5 The only one I havent given reasons for is the top welsh try scorer so..... Henson is a proivder more than a scorer so is unlikely to finish top. Usually that would mean I bet on 13 however right now that is parker so i expect that to give way to shanklin later in the tournament. In the backs I thinks that phillips, hook, parker and byrne will all not be playing at least 1 game, prob 2, so should not be counted. That leaves only mark jones who for me doesnt coming insode looking for enough work Williams is consistantly top scorer for a reason and I expect him to be again

[Football-Tipper]

Re: Six Nations 2008 Saturdays live games

	14:00 - 16:00	Six Nations Rugby							Live!
				Ireland	vs.	Italy

	16:00 - 18:30	Six Nations Rugby							Live!
				England	vs.	Wales

[Big Bets]

Re: Six Nations 2008 You're right Wall. That Williams tryscorer bet looks like pretty solid money. Anyone betting overs/unders? If you want an exotic bet of the round, check out England to be first point scorers with a penalty @ $2.90

[Citizen Kane]

Re: Six Nations 2008 I'll join Rat and Pie and start a 100pt bank for the 6N. 10pts England -12.5 @ 1.95 (Centrebet) Agree with most that England forwards will dominate and IMO weight of possesion will turn into enough points to cover. 5pts Italy +17.5 @ 1.87 (NZTab) Obviously not as confident hence the half bet. The start is a relatively large one for a team who should be competitive in the forwards. I expect Mallet to have a sound defensive plan in place and as mentioned above if Italy score 9-12pts the margin will be hard to overcome. 10pts France HTH @ 1.55 Much as France is the unknown I find it hard to get enthusiastic about Scotland's chances. Was tempted by the margin but in the end Scotland should kick their penalties to keep it close and always the chance that France will play badly but score a last minute 7 pointer to nick it. All in all I believe a good price for the HTH. GLA Cheers CK

[TheRat]

Re: Six Nations 2008 Anyone know an online link to watch this?

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Six Nations 2008 Grrrrr... Ireland. No weather excuses, nothing. England performance is 78-83 with spin and they'll need 3 tries and the win to go significantly over. 0.25pts SELL Eng perf @ 78

[SteveO]

Re: Six Nations 2008 Unreal won one teh Italy match and then lost on my advised bet in the Welsh match. Never been so chuffed to lose a bet in my life though.

[TheRat]

Re: Six Nations 2008 Well, well, well I had to listen to the game, but sounded like we were cruising for a big win then lost the plot completely in the last half hour. Ridiculous My bank is now at 90pts. How did Luke (Narraway) play?

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Six Nations 2008 Narraway - ex King's School, Worcester - mainly anonymous. Balshaw will get panned for the winning try. Lee Byrne 15 for Wales was very solid. My MoM, but Hook got it. Any sniff of any Wales bet looked Titanically sunk at half-time. Strange game, but a bit better than the Croke Park crap.

[TheRat]

Re: Six Nations 2008 I went to Primary School and he actually went to the Chantry for a few years, same as me, the went to Kings in Yr 9 I think it was Lived next door to him too.

[Wumpking]

Re: Six Nations 2008 Still can't quite work out how Wales won that match, particularly with the amount of ball they were losing to turnovers in the first half. England seemed to fall apart completely in the second half. Game got loose, which played straight into Wales' favour. I lost money, but what a fantastic result.

[downjag]

Re: Six Nations 2008 Was England's defeat such a shock - personally I don't think so. People criticised 13 players being picked from a very successful European Ospreys outfit - why? Very foolish in my opinion. The guys proved they were up to international standard. I know this is very easy after the event, but England are rebuilding as are other teams. They had no divine right to win this game.

[SteveO]

Re: Six Nations 2008

Still can't quite work out how Wales won that match' date=' particularly with the amount of ball they were losing to turnovers in the first half. England seemed to fall apart completely in the second half. Game got loose, which played straight into Wales' favour. I lost money, but what a fantastic result.[/quote'] I layed off at HT my original stake which I as always do but could never envisage what would happen in the 2nd half .

[TheRat]

Re: Six Nations 2008

Was England's defeat such a shock - personally I don't think so. People criticised 13 players being picked from a very successful European Ospreys outfit - why? Very foolish in my opinion. The guys proved they were up to international standard. I know this is very easy after the event, but England are rebuilding as are other teams. They had no divine right to win this game.

Like wumpking said, I think England lost it rather than Wales winning it to be honest. Was a shock in the fact it was at Twickenham, but it was never going to be easy. Certain people were saying England by 30-40 points etc which is garbage really. I was worried about the 14.5 handicap I chose, and now with hindsight it was a poor bet!

[whycantistayawayfromdogs]

Re: Six Nations 2008

Like wumpking said' date=' I think England lost it rather than Wales winning it to be honest. Was a shock in the fact it was at Twickenham, but it was never going to be easy. Certain people were saying England by 30-40 points etc which is garbage really. I was worried about the 14.5 handicap I chose, and now with hindsight it was a poor bet![/quote'] if england were a good team they would have been up by 25-30 at half time...they werent, and wales had more oomph in the second half. Tell ya what tho, a wales of old would never have had the discipline to keep the ball in the england 22 (70-78 mins) for that long. COMON!!!!!!

[bartonbank]

Re: Six Nations 2008

Was England's defeat such a shock - personally I don't think so. People criticised 13 players being picked from a very successful European Ospreys outfit - why? Very foolish in my opinion. The guys proved they were up to international standard. .

To be fair we improved after some non Osprey players came on. Jenkins steadied the front three because Jones was getting dicked there, Popham was unlucky not to start the game and Shanklin was far steadier in the middle. As a Welshman even I recognise that we burgled that game as England should have been out of sight by half time. Their error in the second half appeared to be trying to play a different type of game from the first half, failing miserably and then panicking....summed up by the Wilkinson pass to Cipriani in the English 22.

[Wumpking]

Re: Six Nations 2008

wales of old would never have had the discipline to keep the ball in the england 22 (70-78 mins) for that long.

Too true! I must admit I was screaming at Phillips to get the ball back to Hook for a drop goal attempt to put Wales 2 scores up. Didn't have enough faith :$

[aliando]

Re: Six Nations 2008

Too true! I must admit I was screaming at Phillips to get the ball back to Hook for a drop goal attempt to put Wales 2 scores up. Didn't have enough faith :$

you werent alone :ok

[gazzyg]

Re: Six Nations 2008 Yet again an England team found wanting when it comes to open play and converting chances. Been the case for many years now and the good fortune of making the World Cup final on the back of probably one decent performance v the Aussies papered over the cracks and gave the old boys network the chance to plaster our media with how good a team they now were. Pretty similar to the footy boys who thought they simply had to turn up and comfortably beat Croatia for the expected qualification. Bookies must love the English media, they do all their donkey work for them and they'll be sleeping sound tonight with inflated bank balances after that one finshed all the day's bets, triple crown bets and grand slams. Probably still won't deter from predicting a 40pt hammering of Italy next week. :(

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Six Nations 2008 With the sun on their backs in say, Marseille, and the verve of new coach and reconstructed side, you'd think that France would see off this earnest (but not a great deal more) Scottish lot fairly comfortably. But at wet and windy Murrayfield one has to wonder. It's a bit of a leap of faith, but... 10pts France -4 @ evens

[davidmphill]

Re: Six Nations 2008 Waited 20 years for Wales to win at Twickenham, finally been achieved. That on top of the Grand Slam is what I wanted to see Wales achieve in Rugby. For Football I just want us to qualify for a major tournament in my lifetime but that seems way off, enjoy it while I can. Great result and totally unexpected for me. Gatland, resign now you can do no more!

[Pie-chucker]

Re: Six Nations 2008 Eggs, one basket. 0.5 pts BUY shirt numbers Fra/Scot @ 7 Rougerie with 22 on his back to go over in last 5 mins :)

[Charlie Wong]

Re: Six Nations 2008 Scotland vs France Always tricky when betting on France, they can be sublime or sub-standard, just depends on the day, like England, the French are re-building under new coach Marc Lievremont, 6 new faces amongst the 22 man squad will all be eager to impress. Scotland on the other hand have left out impressive goal kicker, Chris Paterson - they may miss his pts haul and experience. France capable of overturning the -5.5 hc 10pts WIN @ 2.16 Betfair

[NIGEL2611]

Re: Six Nations 2008 Scotland v France Generally I have approved of what Frank Hadden has done with the Scottish side but he may of dropped a clanger in not starting with Chris Patterson. Scotland won't be pretty but I do think this is their best chance for some time to win some silver ware. They have some big aggressive forwards who are in your face and some solid backs who may lack the flair of their opponents but are more than capable of crossing the gain line. This is why I think they are great value still at 10/1 to win the Six Nations outright and I also believe that each country in this Tournament will lose at least once. I would also like to say well done to my Welsh friends for there win yesterday, you beat an English team who put up one of the worst second half displays ever seen on the international stage! But that shouldn't detract from what the Welsh achieved. My only question to the welsh supporters is "Do you think this was a better playing performance than the one in Cardiff last year? I was there and for me it wasn't! The English have issues! Especially in the leadership department Phil Vickery is not a captain and there do not seem to be any deputies to stand by him! When you look at the World Cup Winners of 2003 you had Martin Johnson in charge supported by the likes of Jason Leonard, Lawrence Dallaglio, Jason Robinson & Richard Hill all potential captains in their own right. I think the French out of all the nations have done the right thing, they are building for the future and for this reason I am happy to watch them for the time being and not put any money on them.

[TheRat]

Re: Six Nations 2008

Scotland vs France Always tricky when betting on France, they can be sublime or sub-standard, just depends on the day, like England, the French are re-building under new coach Marc Lievremont, 6 new faces amongst the 22 man squad will all be eager to impress. Scotland on the other hand have left out impressive goal kicker, Chris Paterson - they may miss his pts haul and experience. France capable of overturning the -5.5 hc 10pts WIN @ 2.16 Betfair

Exactly the same bet for me. This is value imo. France are rebuilding but the WC semi finalists should still have too much for Scotland, and this is only a 2 penalty margin. No idea why Patterson is not starting as you would have thought penalties are Scotlands best chance here.