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Gingertipsters Tips

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Gingertipster

Gingertipster

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As putting my tips in one thread seems to concentrate my mind better, not wanting to look a fool etc. Also easier to keep an eye on the profit / loss situation. Will now put my tips here. First ones will be for Salisbury. Only one rule: If I believe it is value it is tipped. That means if 1 horse is believed value in a race I tip 1 horse. If 4 horses 4 tipped, though may be 1 will be the main bet, 1 half a bet and 2 savers. Depending on how much value I can get with each horse and which trainers are in the best form. I will be giving advised stakes. Bit complicated but if I think a horse has a 50% chance of winnng (true odds evens) £200 at Evens would win £200 therefore any 50% chance I can get better than Evens for I back it with a stake of £200. If I can not get better than evens it is not backed. 20% chance (true 4/1 chance) will have £50 if greater than 4/1 is available. Because £50 x 4 = £200. etc. I do not bet at shorter than 4/5 and £250 is my max bet. Anyone whos max bet is say £25 divide all stakes by 10 etc. There may be an increased stake if the stable is in particularly good form, decreased if in O.K. form (no bet if in poor form). Trainer form is taken in to account in my tissue prices already but added / less confidence effects my stake. All bets will be on betfair unless otherwise stated. With current price stated. Not overly concerned with getting the very best value just as long as it is value. Will be dissapointed though if a fair percentage do not turn in to steamers. Will try and give a brief reasoning to my bets. If previous experience is anything to go by it will be between 11pm and 2am the night before when I usually put the tips up. It will not be every day. Most Salisbury, Goodwood, Newbury, big meetings / races and any time I can see a good bet. Not the Gaffs. That is if the postal strike does not b..... up my form books. Ginge

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Gingertipster

Gingertipster

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Re: Gingertipsters Tips Day 1 Aug 15th Have Computer probs so will use edit feature a lot. 2:30 Salisbury House £33 @ 8/1 Non Runner Redsensor £17 @ 9/4 2nd £17 loss Backed Paveroc at Goodwood but he seemed a little temperamental there and his capable trainer is in poor form at the moment. So despite Paveroc having the best fom should be taken on. Both Hannon and Channon 2 year olds tend to improve from their debuts. Redsensor ran really well when 2nd at Newbury behind one headed for group company. But will probably face much softer today so I only make him a saver (could drift if heavy rains come). House was cabbage like at Goodwood and may improve considerably for that run. The fact his debut came in a race at Glorious Goodwood indicates he is well thought of. Surely has bigger than 11% (8/1) chance. 3:00 Salisbury Mizooka £40 @ 8/1 1st Safari Sunup £15 @ 9/1 2nd Menadha £10 @ 6.2/1 £295 Profit Mizooka looks massively over priced at 8/1 (took 9/1 earlier) I make him a 5/1 chance. Bred for middle distances next season and has run 3 promising races at up to 6 furlongs so far. Now goes 7f on his handicap debut. As long as there is give underfoot should run well. Safari Sunup is worth a bet at the price, though the more rain the better his chance (needs a test of stamina). Menadha is worth a saver, he can improve on his second start at the trip. Would be the main danger if the predicted heavy showers do not materialise.

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writeups

writeups

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Re: Gingertipsters Tips

Day 1 Aug 15th Have Computer probs so will use edit feature a lot. With Salisbury going impossible to predict the percentages are not right for backing but there are one or two bets that seem to stand out. 2:30 Salisbury
Maybe i have read the rules wrong, do we have to guess the horse in the 2.30 Salisbury or does this mean you will be backing the Fav ? ? ? ?
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Gingertipster

Gingertipster

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Re: Gingertipsters Tips Another Bet 4:00 Salisbury £40 Shorthand @ 11/2 (stan James) or better 4th £35 Barshiba @ 6/4 £75 loss Now reasoning Shorthand is half sister to Short Skirt who went well with cut, as do most of the family. The same can not be said about Promising Lead who was below form on a soft surface last time and is from the family of firm ground performers including Banks hill. Barshiba should stay the trip but this hold up horse is bred to stay but can pull. With one front runner out (Sudoor) hopefully Russian Rosie or Hollow Ridge will make it a descent pace. Barshiba is worth a sava. The others have plenty to find, Fann's form looking suspect. Sorry for the delays, Computer Problems! Never crashed so much in 12 hours. I am usually a safe driver. Ginge

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Fatz

Fatz

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Re: Gingertipsters Tips

Day 1 Aug 15th Mizooka £40 @ 8/1 Safari Sunup £15 @ 9/1 Menadha £10 @ 6.2/1 Mizooka looks massively over priced at 8/1 (took 9/1 earlier) I make him a 5/1 chance. Bred for middle distances next season and has run 3 promising races at up to 6 furlongs so far. Now goes 7f on his handicap debut. As long as there is give underfoot should run well. Safari Sunup is worth a bet at the price, though the more rain the better his chance (needs a test of stamina). Menadha is worth a saver, he can improve on his second start at the trip. Would be the main danger if the predicted heavy showers do not materialise. Will now do reasons.
Wow £63 exacta ! :clap
3.00 Full Result
1st 13 Mizooka 13-2
2nd 4 Safari Sunup (IRE) 14-1
3rd 7 Dubai Dynamo 7-1
Tote Win £6.70 Pl £2.20, £4.70, £3.00, EX £63.10
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Gingertipster

Gingertipster

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Re: Gingertipsters Tips Day 1 Profit £203 Day 2 4.15 Salisbury £15 @ 35/1 Humungous Non runner £30 @ 5.8/1 Royal Oath Non runner £15 @ 12.5/1 Ordnance Row 2nd £15 Loss Humungous improved last time, carrying almost 9st in top handicap, suited by trip, going, wearing blinkers again. Not far behind most of the principals on form and is on the upgrade. As long as he is o.k. (stable not in as good form as when last seen) and gets a truely run race (Dunelight, Dubais Touch and Humungous himself can go from front) should run well. I make it a 10/1 chance. Have reduced stake by 25% for stable form. Royal Oath is probably best on a sound surface but the times yesturday indicate it is no worse than good going. Race distances a little further than advertised with a false rail and times only just over 3 seconds slower than standard. Should not get much more rain but if we do rely on the trainer to pull him out. Royal Oath was progressive prior to getting no sought of run at Goodwood. The going will not be any firmer than Good so Ordnance Row should run well also. Progressive on easy surface. Bookies and punters alike tend to under estimate hadicap form in pattern races but as long as it is truly run the form usually works out. With both Dunelight and Dubais Touch non runners Humungous may not get a truly run race unless he makes it himself. Still worth chancing at the price. It does now make Ordnance Row a particularly good bet as horses ridden prominently will probably have an advantage. 3:40 Salisbury £44 @ 5.6/1 Cushat Law 2nd £6 @ 24/1 Lindy Lou £50 Loss This race revolves around Hazelnut and wether he will crack in the final 2 furlongs. Won his latest start through speed not stamina. The two best produce out of the dam were best at a mile / mile to 10 furlongs. Those two were both by sires with a greater stamina index than Sekirk (Hazelnuts). He still might stay but is worth taking on. Ravenna is a prolific winner but has gone up a lot since winning a seller. Cushat Law is also progressive and gave the impression last time of only just doing enough, probably more to come. Same could be said about Lindy Lou who has not run for some time (improved 2nd on reappearance). If fit could go well at a big price. Ravenna non runner. Will look at the maidens in the morning

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Gingertipster

Gingertipster

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Re: Gingertipsters Tips More Bets. 2:00 Salisbury £40 @ 6.6/1 Stubbs Art 3rd £10 @ 3.4/1 Pha Mai Blue £50 Loss Favourite Blues Minor looks to be priced up on reputation. Can not add much to Racing Posts analysis of Pha Mai Blue just to say the jockey booking looks significant and he does look the part. As does Stubbs Art who like the favourite may improve for a step up in trip yet is a much bigger price. Trainer has an excellant record at this course. 2:30 Salisbury £50 @ 5.2/1 Palmerin £20 @ 14/1 Richcar Non Runner £50 Loss Dubai Samurai and Aye Aye Digby's form have suspect looks to them. Palmerin was green at Glorious Goodwood and like many from the stable could improve significantly for the run if acting on the going. Sire Oasis Dream did not act on a soft surface. Richcar like yesterdays winner from the Beckett stable Mizooka is bred for middle distances next year so likewise can improve for the step up from 6 to 7f. If he is not being brought along for Nurseries, looks worth the risk at the price.

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ZuluWarrior

ZuluWarrior

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Re: Gingertipsters Tips Great stuff Gingertipster! Best of luck with your bets!!! Just one thing mate, one of the PL rules is "No Editing of posts with tips in" This helps ensure none of us are "tweaking" the bet or stake after the event. It's clear your not doing this, but even so rules are rules, so if you need to make corrections please can you do it in another post.... Thanks!!! And keep those nice winners coming!!

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Red Dragon

Red Dragon

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Re: Gingertipsters Tips

Great stuff Gingertipster! Best of luck with your bets!!! Just one thing mate, one of the PL rules is "No Editing of posts with tips in" This helps ensure none of us are "tweaking" the bet or stake after the event. It's clear your not doing this, but even so rules are rules, so if you need to make corrections please can you do it in another post.... Thanks!!! And keep those nice winners coming!!
Gingertips, You can do this as a quote (button on the bottom right) like this! then you can edit the quote! To be fair Gingertips does say he was having computer problems yesterday ("Have Computer probs so will use edit feature a lot.") :ok
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Gingertipster

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Re: Gingertipsters Tips Day 2 £165 Loss Total £38 Profit Day 3 August 17th. 1:40 Newbury £133 @ 2/1 Eastern Gift £20 @ 7.2/1 Miesko £11 @ 14/1 Ridge Dance Eastern Gift's Glorious Goodwood form is good enough form to win most Newbury maidens. Similar conditions today but the trainers form a slight negative. If Eastern Gift does run to his best then not many 2 year old debutants run as well all season. Two that have had a run and could show abnormal progress are Miesko and Ridge Dance (worth savers). Both ran very green on debut. The formers trainer had Glorious Goodwood 3rd Missioner in this at the 5 day stage yet relies on Miesko. The latters trainer can often improve a two year old greatly from its first run. 2:10 Newbury £30 @ 13/1 Eva Soneva So Fast £50 @ 3/1 Silver Suitor £14 @ 7.2/1 Noojoom £9 @ 11/1 Madaarek The 13/1 shots best form so far has been on the All Weather but his last 3 runs have been steadily improving and was unlucky last time out. Stopped in his run more than once. Should stay this far and as long as it does not rain Eva Soneva So Fast deserves to be much shorter than 13/1. Silver Suitor is a worthy favourite, still has a lot of improvment in him. Noojoom like the favourite is a big 3 year old who seems to have improved for the step up in trip and front running. Not certain to get the extra furlong but with seemingly only long absent Cutting Crew to take him on could get an easy lead. If it is slowly run Madaarek has good credentials, improving to win such a race at Sandown on his penultimate start. Did not stay 2 miles last time. 2:40 Newbury £22 @ 15.5/1 Littlemisssunshine £10 @ 2.35/1 (place market) Littlemisssunshine The favourite should win this if she is as good at 5 furlongs on good as she was at 6f on good-soft. I wanted better than 11/10. Starlit Sands was a little below form last time out. A sharp 5 furlongs should have suited. Littlemisssunshine was only 3/4 length behind her that day, could turn the tables if the Prescott horse is not at her best and is 4 times the price. Edge Of Light is the other with a chance but may struggle for pace.

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Gingertipster

Gingertipster

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Re: Gingertipsters Tips

I know it was before the off but can you please stop editing!!! It makes a mockery of your standing here if your posts are edited - Just quote!!!
Sorry Fitz, have had computer problems so have used the edit so as not to lose stuff. I will put analysis in a seperate post in future. If I had started a new post each time then one days racing was likely to take 20 posts.
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ZuluWarrior

ZuluWarrior

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Re: Gingertipsters Tips

Sorry Fitz, have had computer problems so have used the edit so as not to lose stuff. I will put analysis in a seperate post in future. If I had started a new post each time then one days racing was likely to take 20 posts.
Do you not write it up first and post it after??? I find with the internet "the way it is", this always makes sence anyway even without PC problems...
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