Jump to content

Gingertipsters Tips


Recommended Posts

Re: Gingertipsters Tips Thanks Ginge, fair enough explanation, i was just curious about if you actually backed all your advised selections, especially when there wasnt enough available at the price you stated.

I would work in points instaed of pounds but it is difficult to work out having 2, 3, 4 or more bets in the same race and with savers.
To be honest I'm not a fan of putting pounds instead of points, especially large stakes, many people would have had to quit with the amount you were losing before you recovered, i know its all relative and everyone has their limits but it makes the P/L figures meaningless to many without the yield figure, but thats just me, I like stats and the bottom line P/L tells you nothing about a tipsters worth. Anyway, best of luck with this and hope you continue to find some winners. BH
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 174
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Re: Gingertipsters Tips Doncaster Cup 2:40 Doncaster Obviously Septimus has the best chance of winning but I make it a 42% chance (11/8). Balken Knight was only a length behind the fav at York (level weights) yet he is available at 12/1. It is true he is far from certain to stay the extra 2 furlongs but at the price it is worth finding out. Allegretto is far too short for what she has done, the price more to do with trainer and jockey. On form Geordieland is a good price, on temperament a poor one. A place only bet might be wise. Distinction is steadily improving this term but is an OAP and doubtful he is quite as good as ever. Land And Stars outclassed, usually races prominently. Baddam is interesting. At his best (still probably not good enough) over an extreme trip on a firm surface and gets both today. Ran really well on reappearance (good-firm) but below that since on softer going. Stable in good form too and should not be so big a price. Finalmente did best of those up with a strong pace at Goodwood so may be a little better than the result suggests. A front runner who may get a soft lead, improved this season with an extreme test. Over priced. 3:10 Doncaster This looks a poor renewal overall. Though Fleeting Spirit looks well up to winning. Beating Kingsgate Native at Goodwood (5f) before pulling hard and not staying 6f last time. Back at 5f with mostly exposed sorts against him this should be aesy pickings. I make it an 8/11 chance. Captain Gerrard is easily held on Goodwood form. Dark Angel may be better at 6f. Proud Linus is capable of improvement (needs to by a fair amount) only the one run so far. Would be the each way alternative to fav. Spirit Of Shajah sometimes loses race in prelims and new trainer needs to improve it a lot. Warsaw does not look one of O’Briens best, used as a pacemaker over further last two runs. Cake not good enough. Cute Ass is exposed! The Loan Express also seems exposed. 1:35 Doncaster Two unexposed once raced horses look as though they have been let in lightly. Saw Perfect Act win at Newbury impressively but is not that big and Winter Bloom may be able to show the more improvement. Entered at the 5 day stage in May Hill, also in Fillies mile. Won her only startwith any amount in hand and could be anything. Relative Order won well at Ascot but unlikly to improve at the same rate as the two favs. Seen Huzzah and Dubai Dynamo at the races and they look fairly well exposed, though have heard the latter is vey well thought of. The rest look up against it. Basically the favs coupled are around a 10/11 chance where as I make them 1 / 2. 2:05 Doncaster This race is full of horses with dodgy temperaments or inconsistant types. Bulwark, Kasthari, Ogee, Whispering Death and Dansart fit the description. The only sound minded horses that seem to be fancied are Castle Howard and the German El Tango who both ran well in the Ebor. The former is preferred but might have more bets later. Rushed into betting in 2:05 Idiot! Slow pace was against Perfect Act and Winter Bloom (Hughes not at his best again) Feeting Spirit 1st, won easily. Sept 14th £1 Loss Total Profit £692.86

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Gingertipsters Tips 3:15 Doncaster £40 @ 9/1 Honolulu (already advised ante-post) If not already on would not take lower than 11/4. £8 @ 7/1 Macarthur £12 @ 18.5/1 Veracity 2:25 Goodwood £30 @ 11.5/1 Ektimaal 4:05 Goodwood £40 @ 7.4/1 Pivotal Point 4:40 Goodwood £72 @ 100/30 Strategic Mover More bets / Analysis to come

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Gingertipsters Tips St Leger. Honolulu has best form but worried about the going, yet to run on a firm surface. Only four runs in his life, Ebor 2nd up to a good group 2 standard and should be capable of better. Lucarno I do not believe will stay, pulls at 1m4f. Macarther was just behind Lucarno in Voltigeur and is improving, should stay, worthy saver at least at price. Mahler's best is at 2m on soft, do not believe he will have the speed. Veracity was 2nd to Mahler at Ascot and has improved since, 2nd in Goodwood Cup against elders. Deserves to be shorter price than his old rival. Going is a worry, won on good-firm but improved on an easy surface and by soft going influence Lomitas. Raincoat will love the ground, should stay, will need to improve though. Regal Flush's handicap form ain't as good as Honolulu but is improving rapidly. Acapulco exposed. Celestial Halo and Samuel need to improve too much. 2:25 Goodwood An open handicap, Minority Report should be fav but is too short. H Harrison, Prince Of Thebes and to a lesser extent Guilded Warrior all likely to be up with the pace it could suit a hold up horse. Ektimaal has had no luck in running lately and with a fast pace may find the gaps this time. 4:05 Goodwood Pivotal Point's 2006 form (3rd Kings Stand) is the best form it is just a matter of if he is fit enough and still capable. Saw his reappearance (looked burly) ran encouragingly at Salisbury, weakened final furlong. Dissapointed soon after at Ascot and unraced since. Stable now in fine form and Frankie booking another encouraging sign. Galeota won a few days ago at Donny showing his best form (of this season) still is a little better on 2005 form. A bit too short a price. Beckermett just might get an easy lead again and trainer in good form, possibly not quite good enough but with unfashionable connections often goes off at a bigger price than ought to be. Aeroplane looks far too short a price (around 11/4), surely a sharp 6f will not be far enough. Goes well fresh though. Have been looking for Shmookh to come back to 6f, trouble is it looks asthough many others have been too. Still may be worth a bet soon. Grantly Adams probably will not get the strong pace he needs in this. Areyoutalkingtome best all weather. 4:40 Goodwood Looks a hot maiden. Saw Strategic Mover at Salisbury, impressed me greatly in the paddock. Not as big as winner who runs in the Champagne at Doncaster (2:10), but well musculed up with a big backside. Ran well in the race too having only his second run, weakening late on. Bound to improve. Emmrooz is very promising too, 2nd in Sandown maiden but did not find a great deal off the bridle, I believe it was this colt Simon Crisford said on ATR he would not trust him. Bougereau ran 4th in a ferench listed race but is short enough in the betting. Like the other two is well entered up. Forget the rest as they wil have to be exceptional to beat these three. 9/1 abot a 13/8 chance and only 3rd, Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr! Possibly the ground was against him, maybe temperament not all it should be. Sept 15th Loss £202 Total Profit £490.86

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Gingertipsters Tips Blue Ksar is feared but I believe his very best form is with a bit of give underfoot. Last time out (1m, good) he travelled well until not finding much 2 out. Races prominently / tracks pace. Championship Point's handicap form is very good but in fast run races when dropped out the back. Unlikly to get such a race today. Mullins Bay is yet to show the form he was capable of for O'Brien. Usually held up for a late run and best run came in a big handicap. Stotsfold is interesting coming back to 1m2f after not quite getting home here against Purple Moon (1m4f). Had been progressive early season. Held up. Halicarnassus is a strange horse in that he is a hold up horse who seems to do just as well in a slowly run race. Has a turn of foot. However, I believe he was flattered by his run against Zaham on his penultimate start, being the best able to deal with the slowly run race. Zaham's winning form is in handicaps and a competative listed race, progresing all the time. However last time he failed to make a fast enough pace and did not have enough finishing speed which did not suit his battling qualities. Hopefully R.Hills will make a reasonable pace today. Front runner / races prominently. Basaata is a big filly, one that may be able to show improvement needs to taking on colts. Appeared not to stay the trip earlier in the season at Newbury.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Gingertipsters Tips 2:00 Godwood Mick Channon is in good form at present and House showed considerable improvment last time at (2nd) Newmarket. 3 length winner has since gone on to win Group 3 in France. Others have improvement in them but if House can continue his will be difficult to beat. First Trim ran well, behind Doncaster 2nd Crystany last time. Sams Cross ran well for a stable not noted for first time out winners at Pontefract. Paco's Boy was well fancied (second fav) for his debut and ran encouragingly. Stable has much better record second time out and can improve. The Tregoning stable sends out an interesting newcomer, best watch for market confidence.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Gingertipsters Tips 2:35 Goodwood These are a mixture of good class horses on the downgrade, inconsistant horses and a few progressive ones. The Tatling, Barons Pit in the former camp, H Harisson, Ajigolo, Mujood and Dingaan in the second and Mac Gille Eoin (good job I do not have to say that), Diane's Choice and Esteem Machine in the latter. There looks to be enough pace here with H Harrison (needs to lead), Diane's Choice and Mac Thingy. H H is drawn on the outside and may go off on his own. Usually I prefur the progressive types and Estem Machine I believe has more improvment in him than the others and if it was not for the unknown trainer would be a lot shorter in the market. Mr. Akehurst is in remarkable form and everything he runs is improving. So Diane's Choice who ran really well here at the Glorious meeting (2nd) is feared the most. Andrew Balding is in good form and Dingaan has a chance at the price but does have his quirks so s only a saver. Mac Thingy possibly found the race coming too soon last time and taking that out has a progressive profile. Hopefully will be able to save on him at the course. 2 good priced winners but both savers beating the main bet!!!! Mac Gille Eoin 1st Esteem Machine 2nd Stotsfold 1st Zaham 2nd Eastern Breeze was well backed, only 3rd. Possibly did not stay. Sept 16th £122.50 Loss (incl. bets below and Paco's Boy non-runner) Total Profit £368.36

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Gingertipsters Tips

Blue Ksar is feared but I believe his very best form is with a bit of give underfoot. Last time out (1m, good) he travelled well until not finding much 2 out. Races prominently / tracks pace. Championship Point's handicap form is very good but in fast run races when dropped out the back. Unlikly to get such a race today. Mullins Bay is yet to show the form he was capable of for O'Brien. Usually held up for a late run and best run came in a big handicap. Stotsfold is interesting coming back to 1m2f after not quite getting home here against Purple Moon (1m4f). Had been progressive early season. Held up. Halicarnassus is a strange horse in that he is a hold up horse who seems to do just as well in a slowly run race. Has a turn of foot. However, I believe he was flattered by his run against Zaham on his penultimate start, being the best able to deal with the slowly run race. Zaham's winning form is in handicaps and a competative listed race, progresing all the time. However last time he failed to make a fast enough pace and did not have enough finishing speed which did not suit his battling qualities. Hopefully R.Hills will make a reasonable pace today. Front runner / races prominently. Basaata is a big filly, one that may be able to show improvement needs to taking on colts. Appeared not to stay the trip earlier in the season at Newbury.
Just done a write up on this in my thread too, I think Zaham and Halicarnassus are the most likely winners. I've gone for Halicarnassus with Zaham as a saver and think this fast ground and small field will see it fully effective and back to 10f. As I mentioned in my thread it will be interesting to see the tactical battle with one being a front runner and one that likes to be held up. May the best horse win. :ok
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Gingertipsters Tips 21st Sept 2 wins Rosa Grace and Centennial (saver) Days Profit £167.25 Total Profit £535.61 1:40 Newbury Alsadeek went into my notebook at Goodwood in June, looking unlucky in running on debut. John Dunlops 2 year olds usually come on a good deal for their first run (also has had plenty of time) and the trainer has a good record with his juveniles here. Flowing Cape was quite well fancied at York (7/1 from 9/1) for a debutant from this yard. First time out winners are very rare and ran well to be 4th. Quite well bred (by Cape Cross) for one from this stable and significant improvement looks likely. Of the newcomers Paul Cole can ready one first time and Cotton Reel is most feared. 2:10 Newbury Asset has the best form and if back to his best will walk this. Seems to run his best races fresh and comes here with a poor run on loose ground on 8th Sept. Better on a firm surface, would not want much rain. His form at Goodwood might be good enough but at current price must be taken on. Beckermett is (like his trainer) in the form of his life. A genuine font runner, the one possible negative is the 7th furlong, though a close up 5th at Goodwood ain’t far behind his best. If allowed a soft lead and able to set a slow pace will be difficult to peg back. There are others capable of front-running. Hotel du Cap (employed as a pacemaker once but usually races prominently) probably will not have the pace at this trip to lie up. Levera has often gone from the front in the past but connections have held the horse back more recently. Lone Wolfe is perhaps he most likely to worry the selection early. Running well when dictating the pace last time out in France. Vortex is a danger if at his best but that looks a big if. His best runs have been in strongly run races and is probably best suited to handicaps (held up). 2:45 Newbury With negatives about all the runners this is a difficult race to work out, particularly not knowing what pace they will go. Soapy Danger looks the only possible front runner but connections might not want a hard race first time back after fracturing a pastern. A winner at 2 miles, really needs a test at 11 furlongs if at all capable of his previous form. Papal Bull has won his last two races but remains one to take on at short prices. Often does not want to go through with his effort, almost giving the race away at Newmarket. Appeared not to do much wrong last time but was against another “dog” in Shahin. The drop in trip may not be ideal either. Admirals Cruise also looks a dog this season and stable could be in better form. Baur, improving horse but needs to in this grade and might be found out in a slowly run race. Halicarnassus does well in such races despite often being under pressure early. Likes small fields, has a turn of foot and may have more pace than these. Ran o.k on Sunday. Possibly not the quality of some here. Salford Mill’s chance depends largely on the weather. Below form on a soft surface so would not want too much rain. Good-firm is fine and so is good (ran well in Derby on good). Has form at shorter, ran well enough behind Kirklees at Doncaster over 10f and the extra furlong should suit. Unpenalised here, at 11/1 is worth taking the chance with. 3:20 Newbury Saw Ramona Chase at Salisbury and did not look entirely straightforward. Took time warm to his task and raced with head held high. Can pull hard early aswell though has clear form chance. Centenial could improve as a strongly run mile should suit, By Dalakhani. Talayeb is also capable of improvement, like Centennial is bred for middle distances and his trainer has a good record with horses blinkered first time and with jockey second strings. 4:30 Newbury Was impressed with Max One Two Three at Salisbury first time out for excellent young trainer Tom Dascombe but was hoping for a bigger price, will try to get it at the course. Rosa Grace also won her first start at Thirsk, Rae Guest is not known for 2 year old debutants and is sure to improve as long as it is not too firm (by Lomitas). In my tissue these two coupled have a 55% chance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Gingertipsters Tips 22nd Sept 0 (one third one second)Wins Days loss £336 incl. additions below. Total Profit £199.61 1:35 Newbury The chances are this will go to one of the newcomers but Sweet Hope sets a fairly good standard and may be able to improve herself. Finished last last time but that was a conditions race and an improvement on her debut form. Michael Stoute’s Confront is obviously well thought of judging by tonights exchange price. However, two year olds from the yard often run green and are not punished on their debuts and is worth taking on at the price. Barry Hills ditto for Tourist. One worth keeping an eye on is Musashi, having its 3rd run, looks capable of better and a market move may be significant (currently around 11/1). 2:35Newbury Strike the Deal probably did not stay 7f last time (pulled) and back at 6f is a worthy favourite. I saw him win the Richmond at Goodwood and did it well. Not very big, smallest in the paddock, it is possible Jeremy Noseda’s horse has reached his best already. That may well be good enough though. Dark Angel ran over 5f last time and failed after racing prominently early. If it was soley the trip for his below par effort (progressive at 6f earlier) has his chance here. Barry Hills was in excellent form when this horse won a sales race at York, not quite so good now. The one I like best at the price is Philario, disappointed in Dark Angels York race but has since bounced back to win a Group 3 at Kempton on the AW. Got the run of the race that day with he second hampered, but was still a good run. Hopefully he can get a soft lead today (Dark Angel another possible front-runner). The others do not look anywhere good enough to win a group 2. 3:45 Newbury Strangely Desert Lord (a group 1 winner) gets weight here from the progressive 3 year old Hoh Mike. His 2nd in the Nunthorpe is the best form in this race and must surely have a better than 29% (5/2) chance of winning. I make him a 35% 15/8 shot. York is a course that suits as the straight course is quick and tends to favour those ridden prominently. But if able to save a bit early (other front-runners in the race) looks the one to beat. Enticing is at her very best on firm ground and the times yesterday suggest it is only good though it could get a little faster. Hoh Mike is progressive but I believe is better at 6f and needs to have the race run to suit, always dropped out the back so needs a truly run race for those ahead to come back to him. The penalty is also a negative. Mutawaajid is interesting coming back to 5f, showed plenty of speed in the Sprint Cup at Haydock over 6f and is steadily coming back to his Aussie form. Only really a 3 ½ year old (foaled in southern hemisphere) but is a big brute of a horse. Sonny Red seems out of form. Best of the others (could improve but need to) are Sirens Gift who’s trainer is in brilliant form. And Rowe Park a very progressive ex-handicapper from unfashionable connections. Both possible each-way bets at very big odds.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Gingertipsters Tips 4:05 Goodwood Kirklees was impressive at Doncaster and should take a deal of beating if as expected he comes on from that run. The form though does have a suspect look to it, beating mainly out of form horses and one (Many Volumes) that seemed to show improved form. Even so looks a fair price at around evens. Stable companions Formal Decree (ran poorly on firm going last time) and Windsor Knot (unraced this season) are not out of it at their best. The latter may make the pace for his better fancied rival (or dispute it with Al Tharib). Michael Stoutes colt is progressive and will be hard to peg back if not taken on. Equally effective at 10 or 12 furlongs. Only poor run when unable to lead at Royal Ascot. Illustrious Blue's price looks a little short considering has not run since winning here in May, has a good record at the track. Possibly best on a sound surface. Ordnance Row looks over priced, the going and / or trip may have been against him last time (10f on good-firm). Take that run out and he is progressive, ran very well when 2nd in a group 3 at Salisbury the time before. Able to race prominently or held up. Best on an easy surface (good or softer).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Gingertipsters Tips 4:10 Godwood This race revolves around whether Ezdiyaad will act on the going and track. If he does I expect him to win. But it is a big question mark given his improvement on a soft surface and his size. A pal of mine told me he was the biggest 3 year old he had seen. The distance (going from 1m to 1m3f) would not worry me being by Galileo from the family of Nashwan. Should improve at the trip. Saw Harry Tricker win at Goodwood and with the trainer in excellant form he is likely to improve again. By an Arc winner out of a Cambridgeshire winner he should get the extra furlong on a sharp track like this. First To Call was only 5th last time but that was in a very slowly run race on his first start for 3 months. If he stays (by a sprinter / miler) can run well. Over priced. Grande Caiman would come in to it but has not been seen yet this season. Bergonzi is interesting visored for the first time. 2 Winners kirklees (saver) sorry should have been 0.99/1 not 1.99/1. Harry Tricker. Days Profit £123.10 incl. bet below Total Profit £322.71

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Gingertipsters Tips 5:15 Goodwood £28 @ 9/1 Snark £23 @ 12.5/1 Going To Work £20 @ 3.2/1 Elegant Hawk £10 @ 28/1 Is It Me Elegant Hawk is the obvious one here, if he can maintain the improvement shown on the polytrack last time will be difficult to beat. Snark has been running well in amateur riders races including at Goodwood when winning despite the rider looking unbalanced in the closing stages. Had better form last year so if Jimmy Fortune can summon up more is over priced at around 9/1. Going To Work is not bred to get this trip but the way she runs is likely to get it. Often gaining ground late. If Chocolate Caramel can reproduce her AW form would have an excellant chance here but has had enough chances to do so on turf. Zabeel Palace has not been seen since the stewards banned it for 40 days. If running to his Godolphin form would walk this (big if). Not the best of temperaments and is best left alone unless a significant market mover. Kingscape looks plenty short enough and although having her chance looks exposed. Muhanak is interesting going up in trip but like many others does not seem t find much off the bridle. Plenty of others look inconsistant or temperamental but one that does look worth a saver at least is Is It Me. usually a front runner, could reward a small wager at a big price around a track that should suit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Gingertipsters Tips Sorry, just seen have not updated profit / loss for a while will do so when more time. Studying hard for tommorrow. QE2 Ascot £27 @ 12.5/1 Cesare £54 @ 2.6/1 Darjina £7 @ 14/1 Duke Of Marmalade These are the my prices to beat for good going: (figures in brackets show the early prices I would give if I was an odds compiler for a bookmaker) Blue Ksar 800/1 (200/1) Cesare 15/2 (6/1) Dunelight 500/1 (125/1) Ramonti 4/1 (7/2) Stormy River 200/1 (66/1) Nannina 33/1 (22/1) Duke Of Marmalade 11/1 (17/2) Excellant Art 7/2 (3/1) Vital Equine 33/1 (22/1) Darjina 2/1 (7/4) The first price is to 100% the bracketed to 119.8%

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Gingertipsters Tips 4:20 Ascot There are 5 pace horses here, that is those who are usually ridden to lead or at least track the pace. Blue Ksar, Dunelight, Ramonti, Duke Of Marmalade and Vital Equine. Blue Ksar is probably in as pacemaker, possibly The Duke aswell but I expect him to harry Ramonti wherever his rival goes. Dunelight and Vital Equine run their best races from the front so this could be a strongly run race favouring those held up. Excellant Art may be favoured more here than his Goodwood conqeror Ramonti. Though why he is shorter than Darjina is beyond me. The french filly beat Ramonti fair and square in France showing improved form. There is a slight doubt whether Godolphin's charge ran to form but I do not see why not. She may improve again. Cesare is another that might be favoured by the pace (held up). It was no disgrace being unable to give 6lbs to subsequant Group 1 winner Echelon at Goodwood. Only has just over a length to find on Ramonti when 5th at Royal Ascot. Probably improved since but will not want much rain. Another not wanting rain is Nannina, she is best on a firm surface. Ran poorly at Goodwood, beaten when hampered last time. Will have to improve even on her best to win this but is getting too big a price (64/1). Will wait though until I know the going. Stormy River's is not consistant or good enough. Dulke Of Marmalade is interesting if not sacrificed for his stable companion. Has seemed suited by being upped in trip last two starts (2nd to Dylan Thomas). However, is a lazy type so might still be able to show his form at 1 mile (only a neck behind Excellant Art in St James's). Is over priced on form. Vital Equine looks over priced on form but he may be best able to dominate, with so many front-runners I will take him on. Stable fear a firm surface but has run well on it before. Not raced since Irish 2000 Guinees.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: Gingertipsters Tips New prices for soft going 4:20 Ascot Blue Ksar 125/1 Cesare 10/1 Dunelight 2000/1 Ramonti 100/30 Stormy River 200/1 Nannina non-runner? Duke Of Marmalade 11/1 Excellant Art 11/4 Vital Equine 33/1 Darjina 5/2 Darjina's form at Royal Ascot (good-soft) was not that far removed from her earlier form. Improvement last time came on good. It is though a worry and have reduced her chance by 5%. Cesare may be better on a sound surface, though he has some form on it improvement has come on a sound surface. Dunelight is best on a sound surface. Do not expect Nannina to run on it. Blue Ksar's soft going form is much better and could run well but still has an awful lot to find. I see The Racing Post think Ramonti is best on a sound surface. Do not know where they get that idea from. In my opinion he is best on an easy surface. May be suited by the increased test of stamina. Excellant Art can go on anything. Vital Equine is said to like it but in fact has never run on it and may not be suited by the increased test of stamina. Duke Of Marmalade has never run on it and must be a slight doubt there. However, if he does act then will be suited by an increased test of stamina.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...