Jump to content
** March Poker League Result : =1st Bridscott, =1st Like2Fish, 3rd avongirl **
Download the PL Forum App!
** Cheltenham Tipster Competition Result : 1st Old codger, 2nd sirspread, 3rd Bathtime For Rupert **

Gingertipsters Tips

Gingertipster
 Share

Recommended Posts

Gingertipster

Gingertipster

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Gingertipsters Tips Previous page error Should be £281.46 profit 2:55 Newbury Half of these seem inconsistant or are at least hard to win with. The exceptions are King Charles, Gulf Express, Warm Embraces and Woodcraft. If the reason a slightly below par run last time was the softish ground, King Charles may well rule. Had been progressing well prior to that. Gulf Express is on the up as well but with him the question is, was the improvement last time down to the ground (soft). Had run well earlier in the year at Chester on good-firm. Warm Embraces has been running well but his brilliant trainer is in a lull at present. Woodcraft on the other hand is from the in form Barry Hills yard, below form last time when pulling hard. Was in good form before, lightly raced so may be able to improve and more importantly usually races up with the pace. Woodcraft might be able to get a soft lead. 3:30 Newbury Genki is deservedly favourite but probably does not warrant being so short. There are other improvers (Beaver Patrol, Barney McGrew) and some possibly well handicapped horses coming back to form (Greenslades, The Kiddykid, Obe Gold). I like Greenslades in particular with Ryan Moore on board. The Kiddykids form can be picked holes in. Obe Gold dissapointed last time but had only 3 days to recover. Ran well on penultimate start and thrown in on Stewards Cup form of 2006. Barney McGrew has a similar profile to the fav but is at much bigger odds (did take some 13/1). Beaver Patrol is improving but possibly at a slower rate than some. Looks short enough. 4:05 Newbury Home Sweet Home won’t stay. Capitana not good enough. Ronaldsay possible but too short. Voliere not in good enough form. Royal Fantasy possible if recapturing early season form or improved by the trip, though stable not in great form. Viva La Flag very possible especially at the price (14/1). Failed to get home over todays trip but very soft going made too much of a test of stamina. On a firm surface with a probable slowly run race, with stable in form…. Josephine Malines possible at a big price if ignoring last run (possible ground against her there). She raced prominently on good run at Salisbury. Arabian Treasure has pulled hard at shorter, needs to settle. Going To Work Consistant, stays trip but stable in doldrums. Gib in fine form, stable in fine form, made all in last two runs, probable to get another soft lead, will be difficult to peg back. Acts on firm and soft. Value bet. Viva La Flag 1st Gulf Express 1st

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 174
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

stewartd14

stewartd14

Posted
Posted

Re: Gingertipsters Tips

Thurs Profit £525 Total Profit £271.46 Sept 7th 2:55 Newbury £26 @ 14.5/1 Woodcraft £30 @ 2.4/1 Gulf Express £15 @ 3.8/1 King Charles 3:30 Newbury £50 @ 6/1 Greenslades £20 @ 18/1 Obe Gold £7 @ 12/1 Barney McGrew 4:05 Newbury £50 @ 5.2/1 Gib £25 @ 14/1 Viva La Flag :clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap £12 @ 7.2 Royal Fantasy Analysis to come
Superb mate :clap:clap:clap
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gingertipster

Gingertipster

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Gingertipsters Tips Have included the % chance I believe each horse has of winning the race on good-firm going. The price is the price to beat (what the % is equivalent to). Came up with a 14/1 winner of the Nunthorpe, hopefully can do it again. 3:10 Haydock Sakhees Secret is obviously the one to beat, best form and still improving. One of my favourite horses, backed it ante-post for the July Cup. Bred only a mile away from me and owned by a lady who has put a lot into the sport. However, I make him a 41.25% chance (almost 11/8), so am unable to back it. Some interesting horses oppose the favourite. Advanced (0.2% 500/1) is not good enough. Al Qasi (2.25% 40/1) probably better on a softer surface but that is not conclusive, possible more improvement in him (at best at the back end 06). Have taken a big price on Betfair, think it was around 66/1. Amadeus Wolf (3.5% 28/1) Has always looked to me as though better at 6f than 5f so it was an encouraging run in the Nunthorpe. However, seems exposed now anyway, place chance. Asset (9% 10/1) Has always run his best races fresh, either first time out or after an absence. But the application of headgear could be significant. His Newmarket was impressive. Balthazaars Gift (11% 8/1) Would do my September Tote Ten To Follow chances some good, only 34 lists have him and I have 2 of those. Ignore last time out (slowly run not suit). Good win at Ascot / Stewards Cup form under top weight give him a good each way chance. Fortunes no nonsense style may suit the horse better than McEvoys tender handling. Fayr Jag (worse than 0.05% chance) No chance. Marhand d’Or (10.5% 17/2) 3rd in the July Cup may be even better than it looked (possibly on the worst ground, far side). Then beat a supposedly below form Dutch Art. Can get warm beforehand. Mutawaajid (1.25% 80/1) Pulled too hard last time (7f). His Aussie form would not be good enough. Red Clubs (5.75% 16/1) Very consistant but seems unlikly to improve, place prospects. Somnus (worse than 0.05%) Best on soft, too old, no chance. Hellvellyn (10% 9/1) Coventry winner, needs to improve but capable of doing so. Encouraging run at what looked beforehand too short a distance (5f). Each way possibilities. Per Incanto (1% 100/1) Top Italian horse. Back at best trip after running over 7f in Hungerford, but surely has too much improvement to make. Usually races up with the pace. Sakhee’s Secret (41.25% 11/8) Best form and still improving. Hold up horse with terrific turn of foot (saw it at Salisbury). May be drawn poorly 2 (also best pace in stalls 11, 13 and 10). Can not take shorter than 6/4. Wi Dud (2.25% 40/1) Run really well in the Nunthorpe but needs to improve again. Suspicion best with a bit of give underfoot. Still was bigger than 40/1 on Betfair. Sierra Vista (1.5% 66/1) Has improved this year, Temple Stakes still does not look good enough. Will probably lead at the 3 furlong pole and her chance depends on the others giving too much rope. Bigger than 66/1 on Betfair. Scarlet Runner (0.05% 2000/1) looks outclassed, races prominently. Conclusion: There are some other horses that are just about value but Balthazaars Gift looks much too big at 14/1 (will be surprised if he is not Pricewise). £25 each way Balthazaars Gift 14/1 (Bet Direct). 3rd

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gingertipster

Gingertipster

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Gingertipsters Tips 2 late bets 2:35 Haydock The Barry Dennis bismark Olympian Odyssey has now gone out to a backable price. Saw him and Caldra at Salisbury, both were having their first run for a while. The Godolphin horse not given a hard ride and Caldra was burly in the paddock. Both could improve. Caldra had a bad injury after his 2 year old season and needs to prove he is as good in 07. Olympian goes well on a firm surface. The main bet though is an outsider, saw Harvest Queen win at Goodwood. She is a big type that should improve as a 4 year old (needs to to win this). Always runs poorly on a soft surface (as last 2 runs). Winged Cupid is a danger but has been disappointing recently. The others are either out of form, not good enough or both. £15 @ 1.86/1 Olympian Odyssey £14 @ 31/1 Harvest Queen £7 @ 4.9/1 Harvest Queen (place) 3:50 Leopardstown Dylan Thomas will win if at his best. Finscael Beo’s form looks on the downgrade. Red Rocks slightly below form last time and being trained for Breeders Cup Maraahel finds at least one too good in Group 1 company. Duke Of Marmalade ran a much better race in the International than it appeared. His rider seemed more concerned with letting Dylan Thomas out than winning the race. Not put under pressure until inside final furlong and made up a good deal of ground. Should have been a good 3rd as is the sought to need the whip. Capable of improvement. £33 @ 9.5/1 Duke Of Marmalade £14 @ 2.4/1 Duke Of Marmalade (place)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gingertipster

Gingertipster

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Gingertipsters Tips

Followed you at Harvest Queen mate! Only got it at 14's but £20 ew adds up. :ok On the Duke next too.
Fantastic! :nana:nana:nana Great to know someone got on Cunni, thought I left it a bit late there. Probably will not have another bet until Doncaster. Hope my ante-post bet Honolulu does the bizz :hope :drums Ginge
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gingertipster

Gingertipster

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Gingertipsters Tips 3:25 Longchamp Was not going to have a bet here but the rediculously short pricr of Gorgeous George makes it a good betting race. George is temperamental, it is not an ego Mr. O’brian it is temperament. If back to 2006 form then he will probably win this but will he be? Some experts on the TV said it was a very good reapearance at Ascot but to my mind he lacked the old turn of foot. Connections obviously thought so to, stepping him up to 1m2f. Going well 2f out in the Eclipse, in a similar position to 1m4f winner Authorised, he could not get past him. Possibly did not stay, but not exactly weakening. More likely the horse did not want to do it. In all of his races GW has resented the use of the whip. If he can win today under hands and heels then he will win, but up against 2 street fighters in Ramonti and Darjina….. Ramonti does not win his races by far but judged on the Goodwood run is still improving. His main worry may be the gang of three Ballydoyle runners. If they back the race up (like in the Eclipse) Ramonti may not like it. Capable of making the running but if going up to join Archimpenko will be made to go too fast. However, coped well in the Sussex under similar conditions. Darjina takes on the colts and older horses, might even be made fav by the french. Capable of improvement (needs to) and acts well on the going. At 5/1 Corals, looks a little over priced. Astronomer Royal is probably exposed as a good horse but not genuine Group 1, fortunate winner of the French Guineas. Excellent Art would have won with a clear run. Will need the run of the race to win, but that is possible. Turtle Bowl also looks just below good Group 1 class. The others not good enough. Thought about laying George but… £100 @ 11/4 Ramonti £22 @ 5/1 (Corals) Darjina £6 @ 21/1 Astronomer Royal

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gingertipster

Gingertipster

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Gingertipsters Tips 2:40 Doncaster Crystal Clear’s best run was when a lucky winner at York (2nds apprentice took it a bit easy and 3rd unlucky in running). Stable could be in better form and opposable at current price. Royal Confidence has the assistance of William Buick and is sure to run well if staying the trip. Crystany is very well bred and showed improvement last time when beating Hawk Eyed Lady. Could well step up again today for Henry Cecil, entered in 2 group 1’s. Hawk Eyed Lady should not be an outsider, not shown much before stepping up markedly on her third start under a 7lb claimer. Now in her first handicap, can improve again for an in form astute trainer. The 7lb claimer puts me off Sophies Girl who is upped in trip. Excellent 5lb claimer Luke Morris is on another possible improver (needs to) Dresden Doll. She is by Ravens Pass’s sire from the family of Group 1 mile winner Crimplene. One at a very big price who could yet improve is Jennifers Joy. Like Crystany by Green Desert out of a mile family. Yet to run further than 5 furlongs she should be suited by an extended 6. 4:20 Doncaster Only 9 runners but no fewer than 5 like to blaze a trail in front, namely Peace Offering, Galeota, Drayton, Morgiana and Perfect Paula. Although Drayton ran a very good race when held up in the Jublilee and may benefit from similar tactics today. The others all seemingly need to dominate to produce their best. Unless the Racing Post “tips off” jockeys with their previews about the abundance of pace this is surely going to go to a hold up horse. Watching a replay of the Nunthorpe yesterday Green Manalishi wasn’t knocked about once beaten (outclassed). Should be able to come back to form and if so will go close. Hogmaneigh worryingly as a 4 year old, is yet to race on a firm surface. Paternal grand sire Indian Ridge can be an influence for soft going, though sire Namid did act on good-firm. Then again recently watered going turn out to be softer than the official anyway (not just Haydock). Unlike most of his rivals he could yet improve as is comparatively lightly raced. Has had excuses last couple of starts (given plenty to do last time). Won a good handicap on Derby day before that. Conquest is a dog and has a Group 2 penalty. Pivotal Princess is out of form. 4:55 Doncaster Unlike the previous race there does not seem to be much pace on here, something that may count against the likely favourite Red Gala who has form over further. Stable companion Ladies Best is another that probably wants more of a test, although by 2000 Guineas winner is out of a 2 miler. Possible he might go from the front but has not done so before. Red Gala is progressive and from the Stoute yard. Like Godolphin’s Fairmile comes here after a long lay off so presumably had an injury. Fairmile ran well on his reappearance in Dubai but poorly afterwards. Progressive for W.R. Swinburn in 06, if fit (stable do quite well with their older horses after time out) could yet improve again. All The good may want a test at this trip to show his best and Chantaco ran an awful race last time to be last of 12. If Star Of Light settles better he may have more speed than most if it turns into a sprint. Benanddonner may not have the improvement in him of some but is the most likely leader might get an easy lead. Stays 10 furlongs but has speed for a mile so could be difficult to peg back. Heaven Knows is possibly the most interesting of them all. Lightly raced, won on soft and good-firm. If he takes after his half brother Notnowcato can improve as a 4 year old. Royal Confidence 1st Crystany 2nd Sept 12th £220 Loss Total Profit £798.86

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gingertipster

Gingertipster

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Gingertipsters Tips Park Hill. 3:10 Doncaster Although All My Loving ran well on god-firm at Chester that (and Ribblesdale) is nowhere near the form of her soft ground form (Light Shift improved since). Hi Calypso has a rounded action and is by soft going influence In The Wings. Won on good-firm at Newbury but has improved dramatically since. If acting on the ground will be a threat. Synopsis is a danger but yet to run on a firm surface. Has come a long way in a short time (lightly raced) and improving rapidly. Her price has gone now. Turbo Linn is the only one of the principals to be certain of acting on good-firm (law of averages suggest one of the others will act on it). Form is very good, is still improving and bred to be even better at todays trip. Penalty the only negative. Wannabe Posh is an admirable filly but is held by Hi Calypso on Goodwood form and exposed. If it is a crawl Brisk Breeze could run well from the front and is from an in form yard. Mussourie is an interesting filly and could run well at a price. Had her first run for John Gosden (in form) at York and could improve (needs to) for three reasons, the run (first for some time), change of stables and going up in trip. The others do not look good enough and are exposed, probably running in hope of black type. 2:40 Doncaster Difficult race to work out. Kirklees had good form last season for Mark Johnston and will run well if fit for his reappearance. Dettori’s choice and stable do quite well first time out. Should stay but is too short a price. Stable companion Gravitas has one very good run to his name in Dubai and if able to reproduce that can win this. However, ran poorly afterwards and has had a long lay off (injured). Worth taking a chance on at the price. Salford Mill ran poorly last time but that was on a soft surface. Much better when he can feel fis feet rattle. Consistent on a firm surface but may prefur further nowadays and stable seem out of form. Don’t Dili Dali ran very well last time in the Nassau, genuine but exposed. Possible winner only if big three are not at their best. The others are not good enough. More bets possible later. Brisk Breeze 2nd Stubbs Art 2nd (winner on his side) Sept 13th £105 Loss (incl. 2 bets below) Total Profit £693.86

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gingertipster

Gingertipster

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Gingertipsters Tips Concentrating on the group races missed this one, did not realise it was running until mentioned on ATR as a market mover. Saw Stubbs Art run at Salisbury and it went into the notebook as a possible Nursury winner. Ridden by Mark Walford he was tenderly handled and would probably finished a gosecond if asked for everything. Now with Quinnie on board... Can not say I have worked the form out so do not know if value but will take the chance. The 20/1 has gone but. £12 each way 16/1 (corals) Stubbs Art

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gingertipster

Gingertipster

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Re: Gingertipsters Tips Answer for Billy These are recommended bets. It would be wrong of me to give a price I know is no longer available. I wish it were me that had the early 3/1 about Fleeting Spirit. In the case of Fleeting Spirit I have had around £50 at 1.22/1, some at a bit less than that and some a bit more. Around £140 so far. Will probably have another £60 later if there seems no confidence in anything else. Most of my bigger bets are done like this. In most cases though I have had the full stake on but often at varied prices. The 1.22/1 was the price available (do not know how much for) when I last looked before getting on to PL and writing the advice. I feel that is the only fair way of doing things. Sometimes I am on at bigger than the price I advise, sometimes less. If I put every bet I make on here it would take all night, £20 at this price £5 at that, £4 something else etc. I would work in points instaed of pounds but it is difficult to work out having 2, 3, 4 or more bets in the same race and with savers. Had 11 bets in the Grand National. IMPORTANT Anyone following my tips should obviously bet within their means. As I said at the beginning anyone who normally has a max bet of say £20 should divide my stakes by 10 for their own use. Just because I tip a horse does not mean I think it has the best chance of winning, or even a good chance, all it means is I think it is value at the current price. If a horse I believe has the worst chance of winning is in my opinion value I will still back / tip it. After studying a race I do not know who I am going to back until I see the prices. Hope that is what you wanted to know Billy. Ginge

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...