writeups Posted July 12, 2007 Share Posted July 12, 2007 Well i seem to be losing money backing the guy so i am going to play the dangerous game of laying his rides for the next 7 days and see where we go from there...Pt stake will be less than the Backing as this is more liable. 1pt = £25.00 Newmarket Turf Italia E.B.F. Novice Stakes (Class 2) (2YO only) Harry Bluetooth from the James fanshawe is the first we will take on with Jamie on board, this was a costly purchase as a yearling (525,000 euro's) and is half brother to New Beginning, cost 66,000 euro's as a 2yr old,and on pedigree will want further in time as the dam was a 9-10f specialist, is entered in the Gimcrack at York and the St Ledger at Doncaster, so this is a hard one to oppose,has got a good draw and fanshawe has a 15% here with his 2yr olds, this could give me a bad start, but i am willing to take this on and lay this duely as the jockey seems to be having no confidence on getting winners. 1pt Lay @ 8 Betfair = £25.00 Xplor Conditions Stakes (CLASS 2) Jamie rides the very much inform Eddie Jock who won last time out at Ascot in the Brittania Stakes over a mile on good to firm ground, has again got in his favour the ground and going, but has to compete with a 7lb rise in the Handicap, has gone up 17lb since winning the Shergar Cup at Ascot and i am not convinced that this will get up the hill here and is vunerable of its career highest mark. 1pt Lay @ 2.64 = £25.00 Folkestone 18.20 Jamie travels to the Kent track this evening and gets his first ride for Milanollo for Micheal Bell, despite having a good strike rate here of 1-2 50% cost 105,000gns as a yearling and is from a family that have had winners at 7f-10f, the form shows 1-13 on 2 year old winners this season, and despite this being the most expensive of the bunch and this is not the greatest of maidens might give the lay a sweat, but i think this will be better going over a mile in the future. 1pt Lay @ 10.5 Betfair = £25.00 18.50 Shela House is his next port of call and rides here for James Fanshawe, finished 6th on his debut over a mile going down by 20L to Held Captive from the Ed Dunlop yard.this horse for me is going to be more effective over middle distances of 1m 2f - 1m 4f, and this looks a bit to much on the sharp side this evening. 1pt Lay @ 17 = £25.00 19.20 teams up here with which looks the exchanges favourite, Colwyn Bay won last time out at Kempton on the AW, when beating Mister Completely by one and a half lengths and has to compete with a 7lb weight rise and a 6lb penalty in the handicap. has never won on tuif as both of his wins have been at Kempton on the AW, so this is being apposed 2pt Lay @ 5.1 Betfair = £50.00 Opening Pot : £2000 Outlay : £150.00 Profit / Loss : -£255.00 / +£100.00 Commission 5% : £12.75 / £5.00 Closing Bank : £1828.25 GL Wups Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted July 12, 2007 Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. After his stupid ride upon Spice Route where he switched inside to find a gap that wasnt there I agree with this thread and should have some sucess the way he is riding at the moment. He is just not putting his horses in the race and when he does he manages to find trouble. It almost looks intentional. However, when he is back to his best I wouldnt lay him. I still believe his ride aboard Danish Blues on the PL raceday was superb but recently he should have (10) next to his name. He still would find a way to get beat !!! :lol :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cassius Marcellus Posted July 12, 2007 Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. For a jockey who is 5/4 to win the title, going to two meetings a day, only 10 behind Sanders, and well clear of Moore, I personally wouldn't lay too much of him. He's obviously after quantity not quality to get the title back. Look at what you'd have done if you layed 'no-hopers' at Royal Ascot, a 50-1 winner. Even 1 pt @ £25 takes some clawing back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writeups Posted July 12, 2007 Author Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. For a jockey who is 5/4 to win the title, going to two meetings a day, only 10 behind Sanders, and well clear of Moore, I personally wouldn't lay too much of him. He's obviously after quantity not quality to get the title back. Look at what you'd have done if you layed 'no-hopers' at Royal Ascot, a 50-1 winner. Even 1 pt @ £25 takes some clawing back. I see your point, but a good start 2-2, i will let this go for 7 days and revalueate after the week, but i think over all he is worth laying and some money to be made against him. i will be giving reasoning why evey time i selected one of his rides why i have chosen to lay it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted July 12, 2007 Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. Lay his short priced I'd say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted July 12, 2007 Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. He's a fooking ****** simple as. Ill never back him again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stewartd14 Posted July 12, 2007 Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. I agree Carl, his rides at HQ this week have been nothing short of terrible. From what I can remember, these are some of his rides: Red Evie - Held up stone last, Never put in race Lady Stardust - Held up stone last, Never put in race History Boy - Held up stone last, Never put in race Portal - Held up, never nearer Anyone see a trend emerging Jack Junior - Given every chance, very weak in the finish Spice Route - Prominent, had clear run, switched to where there wasnt a gap, went for a non existant space on rails, badly hampered. Gaspar Van Wittel - Held up, found trouble on rails again, never in race. Harald Bluetooth - Every chance, again, weak in finish Eddie Jock - Never saw race but another beaten fav I dont know whats wrong with him at the moment, I mean the ride he gave Spice Route was just unbelievable. I do not understand him at all. He was riding so well up until not so long ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kev100 Posted July 12, 2007 Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. Ditto Carl:@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writeups Posted July 12, 2007 Author Share Posted July 12, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. well funny enough, J Spencer came in for Frankie to ride Moorhouse Lad to win at 7/2F, this was never played as i had it as frankie riding, phew, but his form shows now...5-42 rides. Wups Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kev100 Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. Should we eat our words? due to the great ride on colwyn bay?. Why does J.S. have to have so much risky flair, if he'd have lost on colwyn bay we would have been hammering him with insults again for his hold up piggot like tacticts. I still say he is a risky jockey to back with confidence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writeups Posted July 13, 2007 Author Share Posted July 13, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. Should we eat our words? due to the great ride on colwyn bay?. Why does J.S. have to have so much risky flair' date=' if he'd have lost on colwyn bay we would have been hammering him with insults again for his hold up piggot like tacticts. I still say he is a risky jockey to back with confidence.[/quote'] I never eat my words, this is a betting game, mistakes are made, but i stick on my views about the guy..6 wins from 48 rides, just over 13%, to win the title as suggested by another member at 5/4 is money in the bookies pockets come at the end of the season if he wins,..i will come on here and apologise to all whom stuck with him...but i cant back this guy no more with his shoddy tactics sitting at the back on nearly every horse he rides thinking he is the beez neez as he is cetainly not, piggott cannot be put in the same catrgory as spencer, piggott is a legend, spencer isn't Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kev100 Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. I never eat my words, this is a betting game, mistakes are made, but i stick on my views about the guy..6 wins from 48 rides, just over 13%, to win the title as suggested by another member at 5/4 is money in the bookies pockets come at the end of the season if he wins,..i will come on here and apologise to all whom stuck with him...but i cant back this guy no more with his shoddy tactics sitting at the back on nearly every horse he rides thinking he is the beez neez as he is cetainly not, piggott cannot be put in the same catrgory as spencer, piggott is a legend, spencer isn't[/quote I agree with you wups, I certainly wasn't putting him piggott' catagory either but, maybe he is trying to emulate the legend and getting things terribly wrong at the moment, I cannot for the life of me understand why sitting at the back in a race where there is no pace on whatsoever, then trying to weave through in the last furlong for popularity points. Ok it looks good when it comes off as in the ride on Colwyn Bay last night, but shocking when it doesn't. If he's under owners or trainers instructions to do so then fair enough, but as I said earlier I cannot back jocks with confidence that prefer these tactics on virtually every ride they have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
softie Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. Reckon it could be a good in running play, coz if he holds the horse out the back it gets beat - his winners have come when he actually puts the horse into the race. I watched him at Epsom earlier in the year - one of the smaller meetings, he had 4 rides on the day, 3 he dropped out and was never sighted, the 4th he did put in the race and was touched off on the line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cassius Marcellus Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. LOSERS 2 Colwyn Bay LOSERS 2 Moorhouse Lad LOSERS 28 Hoh Mike LOSERS 0 Hoh Watanite LOSERS 5 Surwaki LOSERS 3 Shaker LOSERS 8 Sir Gerry LOSERS 2 History Boy LOSERS 0 Danish Blue LOSERS 2 Arc Bleu LOSERS 0 Gold Prospect LOSERS 9 Phreeze Last 71 rides as per Racing Post website gave him 12 winners, which is 16.42% LOSERS denotes the amount of losing rides between winners Only once has Spencer gone more than 8 consecutive mounts without a win since Phreeze won on the 29th June. Now, with some patience, somebody can dig up another top jockeys stats and compare them. I agree that his style is not good to watch if you've backed him, If you've layed him at a large price in-running you would be made to pay dearly now and again. It remains to be seen what his stats are like at courses where you have problems coming from behind, like Chester and York. Imo, they could be the places to lay him. I may search later, but right now, I'm off out to the garden for a cigar.. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writeups Posted July 13, 2007 Author Share Posted July 13, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. Todays rides to Lay for Mr Spencer. 14.00 Lets us Prey comes from the Neville Callaghan yard and showed promise on his debut when finishing third to Swiss Franc over the optimal trip on good to soft ground,and with being by Hawk Wing the going will not be of any problem, but is taking on serious improvers here and stepping up to 7f without being schooled to do so might leave this out in the cold. 1pt Lay @ 10's = £25.00 14.35 king of Argos is coming here off the back of a win when beating Audience by a short head at Goodwood over a mile on good ground and had Ordnance Row back in third who has won two on the bounce recently has only gone up 3lb in the Hcp and could be a dangerous play here, but the drop back in trip looks to much on the short side and could struggle to get home here 1/2pt Lay @ 11 = £12.50 16.20 Irving place from the Micheal Bell yard has got a touch of seconditis and comes here probably looking the best horse in the race besides not getting his head in front,again is another ride for spencer who has to contend with a 2f rise this afternoon, Jaimie did ride this on his debut at Nottingham when finishing second to Grand Fleet, but that has not turned out as a hot maiden and can be opposed. 1pt Lay @ 15/2 = £25.00 Well these are todays lays for Mr Spencer Opening Pot : £1828.25 Outlay : £62.50 Profit / Loss Commission 5% : Closing Pot : GL Wups Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writeups Posted July 13, 2007 Author Share Posted July 13, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. Todays rides to Lay for Mr Spencer. 14.00 Lets us Prey comes from the Neville Callaghan yard and showed promise on his debut when finishing third to Swiss Franc over the optimal trip on good to soft ground,and with being by Hawk Wing the going will not be of any problem, but is taking on serious improvers here and stepping up to 7f without being schooled to do so might leave this out in the cold. 1pt Lay @ 10's = £25.00 14.35 king of Argos is coming here off the back of a win when beating Audience by a short head at Goodwood over a mile on good ground and had Ordnance Row back in third who has won two on the bounce recently has only gone up 3lb in the Hcp and could be a dangerous play here, but the drop back in trip looks to much on the short side and could struggle to get home here 1/2pt Lay @ 11 = £12.50 16.20 Irving place from the Micheal Bell yard has got a touch of seconditis and comes here probably looking the best horse in the race besides not getting his head in front,again is another ride for spencer who has to contend with a 2f rise this afternoon, Jaimie did ride this on his debut at Nottingham when finishing second to Grand Fleet, but that has not turned out as a hot maiden and can be opposed. 1pt Lay @ 15/2 = £25.00 Well these are todays lays for Mr Spencer Opening Pot : £1828.25 Outlay : £62.50 Profit / Loss : +£59.38 Commission 5% : £3.12 Closing Pot : £1887.63 GL Wups Results Above Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. :clap well done Daz, money for old rope :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
writeups Posted July 13, 2007 Author Share Posted July 13, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. How do you know my name ? ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. not much I dont know mate;) but still well done :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted July 13, 2007 Share Posted July 13, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. How do you know my name ? ? not much I dont know mate;) but still well done :clap Carl is the Man , He knows all.:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kev100 Posted July 14, 2007 Share Posted July 14, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. Frank Spencers ride on Braddock last night was appauling allthough he did try to make all allbeit at break neck speed which totally knackered the horse and soon tailed off. his last ride of the night allthough he won was still poor IMO weaving left and right it seemed the jock did not know where to go? I feel there is something amiss with him perhaps ill? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kev100 Posted July 14, 2007 Share Posted July 14, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. changed my mind the mans a muppet i would not let him ride my bike:@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geraldo Posted July 15, 2007 Share Posted July 15, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. Spencer might well have some bad rides but his 19% win ratio is better than anyone currently riding a handful every day. Last season it was 18% overall, only bettered by Dettori and in 2005 it was 15%, only bettered by Dettori and Fallon. He's looking a bit thin on the AW, though, with "only" 14% and there may be more laying opportunities there. Thought he did well on Cesare, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodie Posted July 15, 2007 Share Posted July 15, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. He hasn't has the best of weeks I think everyone can admit that. But he's now only 6 behind Seb now and bookies have him as fav to get the jockeys title back WINS-RUNS 2nd 3rd 4th WIN PRIZE TOTAL PRIZE £1 STAKE Seb Sanders 80-461 (17%) 63 46 33 406,043 587,092 -7.86 Jamie Spencer 74-416 (18%) 65 41 51 785,204 1,158,899 +1.40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 15, 2007 Share Posted July 15, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. Lets face it guys if you looked deep enough into any of the top 10 jockeys that ride something like 1000 horses a season you would find fault with a lot of them. Even Ryan Moore had a bad one yesterday and we all have had a moan about Fallon in the past. I personally think Seb Sanders is way over rated but you cant argue with his figures. The list goes on and on and many bad rides do happen, its all part of the pitfalls of betting i'm afraid. We had a thread like this on Richard Hills once, until he rode a couple of big priced winners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted July 15, 2007 Share Posted July 15, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. Added to that, we do not know what instructions these jockeys are given do we? I'm personally a fan of Jamie's and as Billy says, every one is due a bad ride, day or even week/month. His figure's speak volumes. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cassius Marcellus Posted July 17, 2007 Share Posted July 17, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. J.S. is having a blinding run lately. Now 8-13 for the title on Betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteg40 Posted July 17, 2007 Share Posted July 17, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. Well what ever you think of Spencer barring injuries or a long suspention he's going to be Champion Jockey this season. ;) Does make mistakes but hey he is only human:loon tell me who doesn't make them and they are a fcuking liar :@ :@ Like any sport people or teams go through form loss:ok At the moment he can do no wrong:eek :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted July 17, 2007 Share Posted July 17, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. Forgot to mention (following my last post) that I looked up the guy's stats using Adrian Massey's database. If you'd backed all his rides at SP since 2000, you'd lose (about a 9% loss) but laying his rides using the exhange prices would've cost you money too(14%). The best thing to do with Spencer is back his bigger priced rides - if you'd backed all his rides over 8-1 for any trainer since 2000 on the exchanges the ROI is 132% :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted July 17, 2007 Share Posted July 17, 2007 Re: Laying Spencer Thread. Infact his figures are that good for August and September it's worth running a fun system in the lounge when August comes around... I'll add one or two little tweaks, put the rules up for all to see and let's see if we can make a but of profit eh? Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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