Crouch Potato Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) I've had a rather crazy bet on both teams to score over 120pts in this upcoming game. Makes no sense to me based on what I've seen of Port this year but Geelong are attracting high scoring games and we've lacked some goals this weekend so I'm going to look to pull one out of my ass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punto Banco Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) I've had a rather crazy bet on both teams to score over 120pts in this upcoming game. Makes no sense to me based on what I've seen of Port this year but Geelong are attracting high scoring games and we've lacked some goals this weekend so I'm going to look to pull one out of my ass. If that happens can you record it and post it up.... should be good 4 a laugh :lol :lol :lol :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Demons have just hit the front at the MCG with 4 minutes to go Melbourne: 11-11-77 Kangaroos: 9-18-72 The Fat Lady had sung when the Roos were 5 goals up, but great comeback by the Demons Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) One minute to go and Roos hit the front! Melb: 11-17-78 Roos: 10-19-79 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) It's all over and just like last night the Demons have snatched defeat from the brink of success, just like Richmond last night. Roos by a point and I now need Geelong to get up to give me a rare 8 winners :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted May 27, 2007 Author Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Damn, 1 point off a big collect with Melbourne going down :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grip n' rip Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) One for Sunday: Broncos ML / Kangaroos ML (+102) --------- 1 unit gl Broncos by a mile, Roos by a finger nail ... win :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Damn' date=' 1 point off a big collect with Melbourne going down :wall[/quote'] Now...all emotion aside...and I don't mean to be a smart-arse... ...but I would like to hear one reason...one reason...why you'd pick Melbourne to win this game?? Disclaimer: The totally illogical "Kangaroos are due for a loss", will not be accepted... ...nor will the after event..."I had a feeling that Kanga's would kick at 34% (Not including the OOF's)"... Bjv...I've got a much better program that gives you live DT and SC scores if anyone's interested. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punto Banco Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Now...all emotion aside...and I don't mean to be a smart-arse... ...but I would like to hear one reason...one reason...why you'd pick Melbourne to win this game?? Disclaimer: The totally illogical "Kangaroos are due for a loss", will not be accepted... ...nor will the after event..."I had a feeling that Kanga's would kick at 34% (Not including the OOF's)"... Bjv...I've got a much better program that gives you live DT and SC scores if anyone's interested. :ok I am interested... depending on what exactly you mean by "if anyone is interested" :lol :lol :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) ...but I would like to hear one reason...one reason...why you'd pick Melbourne to win this game?? Disclaimer: The totally illogical "Kangaroos are due for a loss", will not be accepted... I backed Richmond +20.5 and Melbourne Under 39.5... "Kangaroos are due for a loss" is not an illogical response Taz. I do a lot of my betting based on "gut feeling". I can see you laughing as you read this probably :lol but it often comes off. I knew Richmond would win or come close, and that meant it would be likely the other winless team would have a go too. Plus they has some bigger names back in the team. Of course, I'm no expert on the game, but sometimes that's what's needed - an ignorant fresh approach - just felt Melbourne were gonna get close or win...just p!ssed that I didn't do +8.5...but at the time I thought there's much better value in the U39.5 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted May 27, 2007 Author Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Now...all emotion aside...and I don't mean to be a smart-arse... ...but I would like to hear one reason...one reason...why you'd pick Melbourne to win this game?? :ok Ill give you a few Taza: - Melb had won 6 of the past 7 clashes - Despite Melbs loss last week to WCE, their form in previous week hasnt been to bad - Kangaroos are overated to buggery - Melbourne had alot of players returning from injury who i thought would make a difference - While Kangaroos ended up beating Carlton last round, they didnt look too impressive for large parts of the game - Melbournes record at the MCG is excellent - Kangaroos hadnt beat Melbourne at this venue since 2003 Just a few reasons why i fancied Melbourne, and the value on the Under 39.5 margin was excellent at about $2.80 for a team which is getting most of its players back and should have more depth now. They showed in the last quarter what they are capable of and actually lead in the final minute before a goal by the Roos killed the game. They got so close, so thats basically why i picked them... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted May 27, 2007 Author Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Of course, I'm no expert on the game, but sometimes that's what's needed - an ignorant fresh approach - just felt Melbourne were gonna get close or win...just p!ssed that I didn't do +8.5...but at the time I thought there's much better value in the U39.5 :ok I hear ya Mark, i was so close to taking the +8.5 handicap on offer but i didnt think it would make a difference in the end and took the Under 39.5 points purely for the value. Unfortunate in the end, but you have gotta take risks sometimes. Sometimes the biggest risk of all is not to take a risk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) I backed Richmond +20.5 and Melbourne Under 39.5... "Kangaroos are due for a loss" is not an illogical response Taz. I do a lot of my betting based on "gut feeling". I can see you laughing as you read this probably :lol but it often comes off. I knew Richmond would win or come close, and that meant it would be likely the other winless team would have a go too. Plus they has some bigger names back in the team. Of course, I'm no expert on the game, but sometimes that's what's needed - an ignorant fresh approach - just felt Melbourne were gonna get close or win...just p!ssed that I didn't do +8.5...but at the time I thought there's much better value in the U39.5 :ok I am the one who should be betting on a gut feeling, cos I have a big gut :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) I hear ya Mark, i was so close to taking the +8.5 handicap on offer but i didnt think it would make a difference in the end and took the Under 39.5 points purely for the value. Unfortunate in the end, but you have gotta take risks sometimes. Sometimes the biggest risk of all is not to take a risk What was the Melb +8.5 playing compared to the Melb Under 39.5? Was it a calculated risk? In essence there was only one kick in it and your bet nearly got up, so your stats backed up your thinking to some degree, so was worth a shot in your eyes. Having said that, logic (in hindsight) would deem that two margin bets with points in for two winless teams would have been better than picking a team with an 0-8 win record to actually win, as opposed to losing with points in. Oddly enough, Richmond and Melbourne were both in winning positions only to lose, and that is because they don't know how to win. Roos and Bombers do. As for the Roos, wouldn't say they are overated. Have a look back through their form. Lost to Collingwood first round when Grant missed sitter, they could have been 7-2. Not many AFL teams win 7 games in a row, so has to be respected, especially when many of the teams they have beaten were in the Top 8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Bjv...I've got a much better program that gives you live DT and SC scores if anyone's interested. :ok Always interested in something if it is of benefit Taza :ok What have you got in mind? As we type... Almost Half time ------------------- Port 17 Geelong 89 Looks like Ash and mine's gut feeling was right, the cats are purring along nicely. The cats may be the real deal this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Ill give you a few Taza: - Melb had won 6 of the past 7 clashes - Despite Melbs loss last week to WCE, their form in previous week hasnt been to bad - Kangaroos are overated to buggery - Melbourne had alot of players returning from injury who i thought would make a difference - While Kangaroos ended up beating Carlton last round, they didnt look too impressive for large parts of the game - Melbournes record at the MCG is excellent - Kangaroos hadnt beat Melbourne at this venue since 2003 Just a few reasons why i fancied Melbourne, and the value on the Under 39.5 margin was excellent at about $2.80 for a team which is getting most of its players back and should have more depth now. They showed in the last quarter what they are capable of and actually lead in the final minute before a goal by the Roos killed the game. They got so close, so thats basically why i picked them... Kangas had (without exactly knowing...) about 65 I50's to 50...and obviously 6 more shots (more actually given the sprays...)... - Melbourne were big favs in each of those wins. (1.75 or better)...the one they lost they were underdogs... - They've allowed 27 shots pr game...but if you're talking form, Kangas won 5 straight...2 over certain finalists. - Point in case. Why are Kangas over-rated? How are Kangas over-rated? One of the highest scoring teams. THE best team for contested ball...right up there in clearances and I50's... - Robbo back, McLean back half fit. Ok IN's...I guess... - Yeah...fair point...but Carlton actually look alright in most games they play (ie. they'll kick 4-5-6 goals in a row at one stage)...could Melbourne beat Adelaide next week?? (Actually a legit question...MCG they probably have to be a chance!! :D ) - Melbourne have lost ALL 5 games at the MCG this year. - See answer 1. Yeah...sorry dude...maybe I am just slightly bitter! :D Poor kicking at goal I just can't handle at all!! Besides Shannon Grant being the biggest goal hog I've seen in a long time, they missed so many chances to put the game away, only to give that illusion of a chance late. Pisses me off. Can't wait to see the officialy stats to see how bad Melbourne really were. :( (Side Note: Judd highly (IMO) likely to get suspended this week...Kangas have to be a huge chance next week in Perth!! Looking forward to seeing the opening price. :ok ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
888 Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) HOLY SH*T!!! nice tipping on Geelong guys :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
koi_saisei Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Yeah if Judd gets suspended I think Kangas are huge chance... and talk about setting yourself up for a top 4 spot if that happens! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) I seen the footage on Judd and can't see him getting suspended if Holland didn't get suspended the other week. Another player got off a few weeks ago for something similar. Not sure how Farmer got 6 weeks for his to be honest. From what I seen there were two players on Judd, he was sandwiched in between them and you couldn't really see him under the 2 players. He is entitled to get players off him, and doubt he even had the vision to see where his hands were in relation to what happened. As far as the actual incident goes it doesn't look so good for him though to be honest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Can't agree Bjv...The eyes are "sacred"...you can belt a bloke in he face...even hit a guy from behind in a contest (gutless, but kind of acceptable in football...)...but to claw at someone's eyes is the lowest of any low that I can possibly imagine. Anyone can spend a week out with concussion...2 weeks with a bad cork...but to even contemplate damaging somebody's vision is worth 6 weeks minimum every time...no doubt in my mind. I think Carey summed up most people's thinking on the Fotty Show this morning...anyone else, trouble...but Judd will get off. Hope not. Hs to go IMO. "Duty of care" (as much as I hate that term!) applies to the bump to the head...so it should to a scratch to the face...nasty!! Seriously nasty. 6 tips...missed Doggies and Richmond :( Bjv...not sure if it's of any benefit at all in betting/picking terms...not even benefit for Fantasy players...just handy I guess to see fantasy scores as they happen rather than waithing 'til Monday. I'm just a sad-arse who likes to kow these things before hand! :D...most of you others have lives.... ;) :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) I've had a rather crazy bet on both teams to score over 120pts in this upcoming game. Makes no sense to me based on what I've seen of Port this year but Geelong are attracting high scoring games and we've lacked some goals this weekend so I'm going to look to pull one out of my ass. I was half there, but as it turns out the only thing I pulled out of my ass was a big giant pile of sh!t :rollin:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Yeh I seen Carey this monring and guess you are right regards the eyes. Be interesting to see what happens, cos he did have the fingers in the eyes. As far as the dream team figures, yeh they were only for people who wanted to know who got how many points in the dream teams. I am a bit like you, I like to know how many I have too. Had a spreadsheet last year for AFL dreamteam, enter stats from AFL site and it totalled it up for me :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
koi_saisei Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) The problem is, Brown himself said he was playing for a free kick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BURNTUA CRISP Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Highlights - Hawthorn beating teams that have been pumping them for the last 5 years. They have another hoodoo to break next week. - Collingwood exposing Brisbane for the fraud that they are. - Indigenous round promotion. - Brett Kirk is still the best run-with player in the comp. Lowlights - Another 6 goal effort by St.Kilda. - Hands in the back debacle. - If you are going to slow down the play, make sure you can’t be beaten first. - Fox Sports coverage of footy is showing no signs of improvement. It looks like they spent so much on the rights, that the coverage itself looks and is cheap. Thumbs Up Geelong – Best 1st half this season, including their 20 goal 1st half against Richmond. Collingwood – Play better outside Victoria. Perhaps they should play all 6 non-Victorian teams away, for a change. Sydney – Raise their performance against contenders who are really pretenders. The Bookies – Thanks for lengthening Sydney’s price when you discovered Kennelly and Davis wouldn’t play. Much appreciated. Thumbs Down West Coast – Overusing the footy, giving their already impotent forward line no chance of kicking a winning score. Bulldogs – Another home game outside Victoria and another loss. It could mean the difference between finishing 4th and 7th. Or even 8th and 9th. Spend those dollars wisely. Chris Judd – Ouch! Will he get charged with eye-gouging or negligent contact to the face? I’m guessing the latter and he will cop the reprimand. The Wash-Up Predictor – 5 from 8 Tips – 5 from 8 Bets – 2 from 5 (could so easily have been 4, but happy nonetheless) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Joel Selwood plays like a 75-gamer. He's going to be top shelf. Don't know why I should bring that up :unsure, guess I'm just putting off saying Kangas were due a loss (good win considering) and am very quietly kicking myself (very hard) for forgetting to take the 301.oo Bartel (see my market I posted pre-season) given what's transpired lately. Maybe Harvey gets the vote today tips Bartell out of the medal, for the fairy tale finish for myself - yeah right :spank, although he's a chance for votes, right? Very juicy -16 @ 1.85 Cats 1/4 time for some nice desert (sorry about AE). Good work/input by everyone in here, win, lose or draw. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted May 27, 2007 Author Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Kangas had (without exactly knowing...) about 65 I50's to 50...and obviously 6 more shots (more actually given the sprays...)... - Melbourne were big favs in each of those wins. (1.75 or better)...the one they lost they were underdogs... - They've allowed 27 shots pr game...but if you're talking form, Kangas won 5 straight...2 over certain finalists. - Point in case. Why are Kangas over-rated? How are Kangas over-rated? One of the highest scoring teams. THE best team for contested ball...right up there in clearances and I50's... - Robbo back, McLean back half fit. Ok IN's...I guess... - Yeah...fair point...but Carlton actually look alright in most games they play (ie. they'll kick 4-5-6 goals in a row at one stage)...could Melbourne beat Adelaide next week?? (Actually a legit question...MCG they probably have to be a chance!! :D ) - Melbourne have lost ALL 5 games at the MCG this year. - See answer 1. Yeah...sorry dude...maybe I am just slightly bitter! :D Poor kicking at goal I just can't handle at all!! Besides Shannon Grant being the biggest goal hog I've seen in a long time, they missed so many chances to put the game away, only to give that illusion of a chance late. Pisses me off. Can't wait to see the officialy stats to see how bad Melbourne really were. :( (Side Note: Judd highly (IMO) likely to get suspended this week...Kangas have to be a huge chance next week in Perth!! Looking forward to seeing the opening price. :ok ) All good points Taza :ok Guess i took a risk as i saw value. Melbourne pretty much just turned up for 1 quarter (the last) and only went down by 1 point, so was a gallant effort. I explained my reasoning behind why i tipped them and i reckon it was a good bet purely because of the value, and only 1 point off. But a loss is a loss I do reckon the Kangas are overated still. Theres a team that over performs each season early on and then fades away as the season progresses. It was Richmond in 2005, it was Collingwood in 2006 and i believe it will be Kangaroos in 2007. If the Roos are still in the top 8 come Round 22 then i will be very supprised. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beejayville Posted May 27, 2007 Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Theres a team that over performs each season early on and then fades away as the season progresses. It was Richmond in 2005' date=' it was Collingwood in 2006 and i believe it will be Kangaroos in 2007. If the Roos are still in the top 8 come Round 22 then i will be very suprised.[/quote'] There is also a team that under performs each season... Carlton in 2005 Carlton in 2006 Carlton in 2007 :rollin:rollin:rollin Pssst...Collingwood finished 5th after Round 22 last year...I wouldn't mind fading like that every year :moon Apparently all the Carlton players are going into the Big Brother house as intruders...They reckon it won't matter if they are in the house or on a footy ground, they still won't win...Media reckon Carlton will look like winning Big Brother at some stage but they will somehow stuff that up too :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted May 27, 2007 Author Share Posted May 27, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) There is also a team that under performs each season... Carlton in 2005 Carlton in 2006 Carlton in 2007 :rollin:rollin:rollin Pssst...Collingwood finished 5th after Round 22 last year...I wouldn't mind fading like that every year :moon Apparently all the Carlton players are going into the Big Brother house as intruders...They reckon it won't matter if they are in the house or on a footy ground, they still won't win...Media reckon Carlton will look like winning Big Brother at some stage but they will somehow stuff that up too :dude Carlton 2005 = Mark Murphy, Carlton 2006 = Bryce Gibbs Carlton 2007 = Matt Krezuer (likely no.1 pick) We are the ones laughing... :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted May 28, 2007 Share Posted May 28, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Just not quite yet, ay... ;) Look, sorry ads...Really bad form for me to call out what anyone else is betting on. It ceratinly wasn't anything personal...the frustration of watching an 'easy' win disappear before my eyes got to me. I do apologise. ...hang on...Carlton v. Dogs next week...maybe things will get personal after all ;) :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ads25 Posted May 28, 2007 Author Share Posted May 28, 2007 Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Just not quite yet, ay... ;) Look, sorry ads...Really bad form for me to call out what anyone else is betting on. It ceratinly wasn't anything personal...the frustration of watching an 'easy' win disappear before my eyes got to me. I do apologise. ...hang on...Carlton v. Dogs next week...maybe things will get personal after all ;) :lol Nothing to apologise about mate, i didnt take it too serious. I see what you were getting at though. I actually joked with Jeffers and Beejay right before I put the bet on that two of my main bets this week were on teams that had lost 9 straight games this year :eek Carlton will shit on the Dogs this week though im afraid mate :dude (with a 50 point handicap line that is) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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