AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th)

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Friday 25 May 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged.">BPP
Fremantle v St Kilda (11:40 BST)	1.38		3.05	106%	Related markets...- - -Match ResultWinning Margin
Saturday 26 May 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged.">BPP
Carlton v Adelaide (05:10 BST)	3.28		1.40	102%	Related markets...- - -Match ResultWinning Margin
Hawthorn v West Coast (05:10 BST)	2.04		1.34	124%	Related markets...- - -Match ResultWinning Margin
Brisbane v Collingwood (10:10 BST)	1.85		1.95	106%	Related markets...Match Result
Richmond v Essendon (10:10 BST)	3.35		1.33	106%	Related markets...- - -Match ResultWinning Margin
Sunday 27 May 2007
	Home	Draw	Away	bookmakers margin on the event. However, they do not take account of commissions that may be charged.">BPP
Western Bulldogs v Sydney (04:10 BST)	1.77		2.04	106%	Related markets...- - -Match ResultWinning Margin
Melbourne v Kangaroos (05:10 BST)	2.40		1.57	106%	Related markets...- - -Match ResultWinning Margin
Port Adelaide v Geelong (07:40 BST)	1.78		2.03	106%	Related markets...- - -Match ResultWinning Margin

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Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th)

Overall Standings
#	Team	P	W	L	D	For	Agt	%	Pts
1	West Coast	8	7	1	0	745	564	132.1	28
2	Port Adelaide	8	6	2	0	764	669	114.2	24
3	Geelong	8	5	3	0	963	652	147.7	20
4	Adelaide	8	5	3	0	650	587	110.7	20
5	Hawthorn	8	5	3	0	703	651	108	20
6	Kangaroos	8	5	3	0	833	780	106.8	20
7	Collingwood	8	5	3	0	740	711	104.1	20
8	W.Bulldogs	8	5	3	0	802	797	100.6	20
9	Sydney	8	4	4	0	694	631	110	16
10	Essendon	8	4	4	0	845	785	107.6	16
11	Brisbane	8	4	4	0	691	703	98.29	16
12	St Kilda	8	4	4	0	636	650	97.85	16
13	Fremantle	8	3	5	0	722	787	91.74	12
14	Carlton	8	2	6	0	794	1009	78.69	8
15	Melbourne	8	0	8	0	602	889	67.72	0
16	Richmond	8	0	8	0	666	985	67.61	0

Match Totals
		Quarters				Halves
#	Team	W	L	D	WR%	W	L	D	WR%
1	West Coast	20	10	2	62.5	12	4	0	75
2	Port Adelaide	15	15	2	46.88	8	8	0	50
3	Geelong	23	8	1	71.88	12	4	0	75
4	Adelaide	18	14	0	56.25	10	6	0	62.5
5	Hawthorn	15	17	0	46.88	9	5	2	56.25
6	Kangaroos	18	13	1	56.25	9	7	0	56.25
7	Collingwood	15	15	2	46.88	9	6	1	56.25
8	W.Bulldogs	12	17	3	37.5	5	10	1	31.25
9	Sydney	15	16	1	46.88	11	5	0	68.75
10	Essendon	17	15	0	53.13	8	7	1	50
11	Brisbane	17	15	0	53.13	6	10	0	37.5
12	St Kilda	17	14	1	53.13	8	8	0	50
13	Fremantle	14	17	1	43.75	7	8	1	43.75
14	Carlton	10	22	0	31.25	5	11	0	31.25
15	Melbourne	11	19	2	34.38	2	14	0	12.5
16	Richmond	10	20	2	31.25	4	12	0	25

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Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th)

Quarter Averages
		For				Against
	Team	¼	½	¾	FT	¼	½	¾	FT
1	West Coast	27	22	18	26	19	15	20	17
2	Port Adelaide	21	26	30	19	25	22	17	20
3	Geelong	34	28	31	27	20	22	16	25
4	Adelaide	24	20	21	17	19	16	20	19
5	Hawthorn	15	22	27	25	20	21	21	20
6	Kangaroos	29	24	25	27	18	25	22	32
7	Collingwood	20	25	26	22	25	24	22	18
8	W.Bulldogs	27	26	23	24	31	21	22	26
9	Sydney	25	16	21	25	24	20	21	15
10	Essendon	27	26	26	27	17	27	30	23
11	Brisbane	23	26	17	20	25	20	20	23
12	St Kilda	20	16	24	20	19	17	24	22
13	Fremantle	22	21	26	22	27	19	30	24
14	Carlton	24	28	25	22	31	30	34	32
15	Melbourne	20	15	20	21	29	31	28	23
16	Richmond	23	17	19	25	34	28	30	31

Scoring Statistics
		Avg Score		Avg Margin		Total Score		Round Total
	Team	For	Agt	Win	Lose	High	Low	High	Low
1	West Coast	93	71	31	39	137	70	0	0
2	Port Adelaide	96	84	25	28	122	63	1	0
3	Geelong	120	82	70	13	222	72	2	0
4	Adelaide	81	73	24	19	110	57	0	1
5	Hawthorn	88	81	22	19	131	44	0	1
6	Kangaroos	104	98	19	14	147	70	1	0
7	Collingwood	93	89	18	21	119	66	1	0
8	W.Bulldogs	100	100	22	34	135	62	0	1
9	Sydney	87	79	31	15	118	44	0	0
10	Essendon	106	98	34	19	127	79	0	0
11	Brisbane	86	88	34	37	136	63	1	1
12	St Kilda	80	81	38	41	125	43	0	3
13	Fremantle	90	98	21	25	137	58	1	0
14	Carlton	99	126	10	39	130	39	1	1
15	Melbourne	75	111	0	36	106	57	0	1
16	Richmond	83	123	0	40	100	65	0	0

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Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th)

Margin Breakdown - Basic
		U 15.5		O 15.5		U 39.5		O 39.5
	Team	W	L	W	L	W	L	W	L
1	West Coast	3	0	4	1	5	1	2	0
2	Port Adelaide	1	0	5	2	4	2	2	0
3	Geelong	0	1	5	2	2	3	3	0
4	Adelaide	1	1	4	2	5	3	0	0
5	Hawthorn	1	0	4	3	5	3	0	0
6	Kangaroos	0	1	5	2	5	3	0	0
7	Collingwood	1	1	4	2	5	3	0	0
8	W.Bulldogs	1	1	4	2	5	2	0	1
9	Sydney	0	1	4	3	3	4	1	0
10	Essendon	1	1	3	3	3	4	1	0
11	Brisbane	1	0	3	4	2	3	2	1
12	St Kilda	0	0	4	4	2	2	2	2
13	Fremantle	1	1	2	4	2	4	1	1
14	Carlton	1	1	1	5	2	3	0	3
15	Melbourne	0	2	0	6	0	4	0	4
16	Richmond	0	1	0	7	0	6	0	2

Margin Breakdown - Detailed
		1-19 pts		20-39 pts		40-59 pts		60+ pts
	Team	W	L	W	L	W	L	W	L
1	West Coast	3	0	2	1	0	0	2	0
2	Port Adelaide	4	0	0	2	2	0	0	0
3	Geelong	0	2	2	1	1	0	2	0
4	Adelaide	2	1	3	2	0	0	0	0
5	Hawthorn	1	2	4	1	0	0	0	0
6	Kangaroos	3	2	2	1	0	0	0	0
7	Collingwood	2	2	3	1	0	0	0	0
8	W.Bulldogs	2	1	3	1	0	1	0	0
9	Sydney	1	3	2	1	1	0	0	0
10	Essendon	1	2	2	2	0	0	1	0
11	Brisbane	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	1
12	St Kilda	0	0	2	2	2	2	0	0
13	Fremantle	2	2	0	2	1	1	0	0
14	Carlton	2	2	0	1	0	1	0	2
15	Melbourne	0	2	0	2	0	3	0	1
16	Richmond	0	3	0	3	0	1	0	1

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Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Interesting stat for the Brisbane-Collingwood game. The Pies have never beaten the Brisbane Lions at the GABBA in their history. The Lions have won 7 of the past 9 clashes, so the $1.85 currently available on the Lions could be some value.

[koi_saisei]

Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) I think you might have the wrong odds down for Hawks vs West Coast. Sportsbet has them at Hawks 2.20 West Coast 1.67 Thats pretty good odds on a west coast win. Played in Launceston which is the major factor in the odds I imagine... and possibly Kerrs suspension. Port and Brisbane for me. I would have liked Richmond except Richo is gone. So no way I'm on them now.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Looks like we could in opposition on all those three koi. Good luck. :ok Kerr accepted the two weeks is what I've heard. Anyone else fancy the price on Hawthorn? No Kerr, still no Embley. It should make a big difference IMO. Other bet shapes as Freo for me. May even go HT/FT.

Friday, 25th May
Fremantle v St. Kilda	Subiaco (N)	2/9	1.36	WinBet		3.35		Domebet	103.4%
Saturday, 26th May
Carlton v Adelaide	Telstra D (D)	3/1	3.5	Norm Short		1.34		Portland	103.2%
Hawthorn v West Coast	Aurora (D)	Ev	2.3	Centrebet		1.7		Global	102.3%
Brisbane v Collingwood	Gabba (N)	5/4	1.83	Portland		2.05		Hurley	103.4%
Richmond v Essendon	M.C.G. (N)	11/4	3.4	Sportingbet		1.36		Centrebet	102.9%
Sunday, 27th May
W Bulldogs v Sydney	Manuka (E)	Ev	1.95	Acumen		1.95		Domebet	102.6%
Melbourne v Kangaroos	MCG (D)	6/4	2.42	Winbet		1.64		Betfair	102.3%
Port Adelaide v Geelong	AAMI (T)	5/4	1.8	SportsBet		2.08		Sportingbet	103.6%

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Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th)

Looks like we could in opposition on all those three koi. Good luck. :ok Kerr accepted the two weeks is what I've heard. Anyone else fancy the price on Hawthorn? No Kerr, still no Embley. It should make a big difference IMO.

I fancy the Hawks myself Ash, they are playing some great footy at the moment (despite last weeks shocker, even though they won) and i think they would fancy themselves at Tasmania where they have some good form in recent years. Koi Saisei, i copied and pasted the odds from the odds comparison site link down the bottom of PL so not sure where they get their odds from? But if odds are $2.20 then i reckon ill be all over that, very good value

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th)

Hawthorn v West Coast

2.3

Centrebet

1.7

Global

102.3%

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Yeah...crazy Hawthorn odds really... I saw 2.20 first up, figured they'd come in with Kerr out...now 2.30 out there!! The one negative is that WC have won 2 of their 3 games in Tassie (all v. Hawks)...although, interestingly enough, lost all 3 ats. Either way, I think it looks a lot like a 15.5 either way bet...hopefully 3.00 available. WC are way worse away from home...nearly -7 I50's per game!!...although still solid D keeping them right in games. Speaking of home/away form...St. Kilda!! Av. just 43 I50's per game outdoors (inc. MCG)...and score at just every 2.31 entries...and that's counting the 1.70 v. Melbourne straight up!! Think they av. something like 63 ppg...no real surprise I guess. Their midfield doesn't kick a lot of goals at the best of times...let alone this depleted...Gehrig and Milne don't even seem to be interested outside the dome (esp. interstate!), and Riewoldt can't kick goals from the wing. But, Freo certainly haven't been great either...score every 2.20 entries at home (2.11 overall) and no real midfield advantage either way. Clear under for me...but I guess it'll be LOW given the Saints' game last week. Freo should win, but 1.30 seems a bit tight. Crows are a definate ML bet for me. Carlton 1-9 last 10 in the dome, allowing over 20 goals a game. Crows won 6 of last 7 (losing only the 'infamous' Richmond chip-a-thon) and have kicked at least 103 in each of their last 8! (beside the Tiges game) Surprisingly not a great deal in the midfield numbers...but one team can play defense, and one clearly can't. Adelaide 7.00 for the highest score too...def worth consideration. (Did we ever go back and find out how many this year have been v. Carlton?)... ...never mind, I just did. 4 out of 9 have been against Carlton. First week was Port v. Freo. Rd. 3 was actually Carlton v. Ess...but Ess had second highest score! :D Rd. 4. Freo over Melbourne...Carlton played WC in the rain. (allowed 30 shots) Rd. 6 was the Geelong/Richmond free for all. Blues allowed 3rd highest behind Ess. Hawks will be +10 or so...or 3.15 for either under 15.5 on TAB...wouldn't think WC can win by much more?? Kerr out, Embly out...maybe Jacobs back for Hawks... I'll seriously be considering playing Richmond + the points. Essendon this season outdoors are a disaster! Nearly -11 I50's per game and allow a shot every 1.87... ...throw out the Geelong disaster and Richmond are 'only' -9 @ 1.74. No Richo, but will that hurt too much? Done nothing really...Kingsley kicked 6 in the VFL last week. Tigers won the last 3 H2H, 2 as dogs...and Ess haven't won a game by more than 13 in their last 10 @ MCG! Collingwood, Dogs and WC are al lfar better than Essendon and Tiges have lost to those 3 by 35, 32 and 23. +20 or so will be a definate. Actually leaning to Collingwood...but Brisbane have been superb defensively at home...allowing just 45 I50's @ 2.15 (av. score against is about 67!)... ...given the Pies tend to not convert the chances they do get they may struggle to get too much on the score board here. Not sure Brisbane can score much either with teams obviously double teaming Brown...Clement back? Low scorer? Not sure I'm too convinced either way. Doggies/Sydney...said what I had to say in last week's thread. Initial reaction was to jump all over the Swans at that price...stats say odds are about right. Go DOGGIES!!!...WOOF WOOF!... :lol Kangaroos @ 1.65??!! Good Lord!! Melbourne -10 I50's a game, allow scores every 1.76 entries. Kangas had at least 27 shots in all but 1 game this year... ...bit of a concern that they have allowed 30 shots in each of their last 2. But they do appear to be far too good for Melbourne. 1.65 is pretty huge... ...will be on the over too. Should be a shoot-out. Kangas 5.00 for highest score *** (Melbourne @ 26.00 wouldn't be the worst bet ever either!!) I can only assume there's being too much credit given to Melbourne for winning the last 4 meetings...but they have been biggish favs in all 4...in fact the Kangas have only been favs in 3 of the last 10 meetings, and have won all 3. Port/Geelong is another hairy one...home/away stats are very telling...Port av. 56 to 44 I50's in 4 home games this year!! Geelong gain only 42 outdoors (including at home) (-7)!! Cats' D has been very good tho, and keeping them in games...and Port have played what you'd have to suggest is a pretty soft home schedule...Kangas early (although, looking now, that was a pretty big belting!!), Crows (lost), Saints and Richmond... Not too sure. I just get the feeling (esp. after looking at this weeks stats) that port's D is nowhere near as good as it makes out!! Sydney scored every 1.39 entries!!!...and really, it's only been 2.14 v. Crows (who can't score well), 2.24 v. Collingwood (in the rain) and 2.85 v. Saints that is really skewing the legder. One of those games where you can probably throw the stats out, considering! Fine day, Geelong...give Port the edge in the wet. (Very long range forecast says 'early showers'... ...which reminds me...expecting probably slippery conditions down here on Saturday...WC far better clearance stats (although minus Kerr will definately hurt them you'd think)...but teams pretty even in contested ball... Not too sure if weather favours either team. *** Highest scoring team...does look to be a good market this week. I think we can safely throw out St. Kilda and Freo...Hawthorn/Eagles, Brisbane, Collingwood, Sydney, Doggies, Port and Geelong... ...Essendon rarely score big at the MCG... ...Carlton clearly won't score big on Adealide... ...leaving Crows, Kangas as obvious picks and Melbourne as a half decent smokey at a huge price. Will probably find better odds than those available aswell. Either way, effectively geting 3.00 for either Crows or Kangas at present seems a nice little earner. Good luck as always gang.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th)

...which reminds me...expecting probably slippery conditions down here on Saturday...WC far better clearance stats (although minus Kerr will definately hurt them you'd think)...but teams pretty even in contested ball...

Have to agree with you here. I watched the West Coast vs Carlton game on tv a few weeks back when it pissed down rian for the whole game. It was absolutely bucketing down, but the thing i noticed were how well West Coast played in these conditions. Their disposals were excellent and the most amazing thing was every single Eagles player reached double digits in their possessions. They had 469 touches to Carltosn 293, which is unheard of Even without Kerr, I think if the weather is wet and slippery, then i wouldnt take the Hawthorn bet despite how interested i was in it last night.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Showers on Friday and "early showers" forecast on Sat... ...doesn't tend to rain a lot during the day here...but overnight rain won't surprise me. But...long way off yet still!

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Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th)

Showers on Friday and "early showers" forecast on Sat... ...doesn't tend to rain a lot during the day here...but overnight rain won't surprise me. But...long way off yet still!

Plus its an early kick off too i think, at 1pm. Overnight rain could make an impact

[Crouch Potato]

Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Some very good insights there Taza and I couldn't agree more re: highest team score of the weekend. Do you keep any first qtr stats? Centrebet's first to 25 in the 1st qtr market is one that interests me and I would think that Adelaide and the Roos are very good looks for that this week. I imagine Crows would be somewhere around 1.90 and the Kangaroos 2.15, both of which would suck me in nicely. On a sidenote, I must say I was surprised and somewhat alarmed to see that in the past 10 games, the Lions have only scored more than 70pts on 3 occassions, though each time they did they scored 100+.

[koi_saisei]

Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Anyone fancy Carlton for the wooden spoon. They are at 6.50, which I consider superb odds. Theres a long way to go, and Richmond can come from 2 games behind.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th)

Anyone fancy Carlton for the wooden spoon. They are at 6.50, which I consider superb odds. Theres a long way to go, and Richmond can come from 2 games behind.

I dont fancy it :lol

[koi_saisei]

Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Another note. Jack Riewoldt to make his debut. Lets see if his as good as they say he is...if they ever said anything...because I forget :D

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Josh Carr appeal dismissed. Lasseters have posted Hawthorn at +7.5 Koi, I can't really say until i go to trouble of framing WS market. Carlton are 8.00 at Lasseters though.

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Great stats Ads and very helpful :ok Was wondering if the Match Totals could be sorted by highest WR% so the better teams stand out And the Scoring Statistics sorted by highest points for, so the highest points scorers are in order. Love reading your early analysis of the games too Taza :clap Quality stuff in here :dude

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th)

Interesting stat for the Brisbane-Collingwood game. The Pies have never beaten the Brisbane Lions at the GABBA in their history. The Lions have won 7 of the past 9 clashes' date=' so the $1.85 currently available on the Lions could be some value.[/quote'] That is an interesting stat Ads and one that can't be taken too lightly. Many of those losses were when Brisbane outmuscled the Pies, as the black and white were full of squibs when it got tough. Pies are playing much better football now and the loss last week will do them good, and they did play pretty well against the Doggies, but they have to start coverting better. Something like a 41% conversion in their last 5 games or so, 61 goals and 90 behinds. Good thing about the loss to the Bulldogs was that we had James Clement our best defender missing, and also Paul Licuria. Clement will straighten the defence up when he gets back. Hey anyone see old Presty run down the wing trying to bounce the ball on Sunday? Priceless :rollin I will be on the Pies at those odds as we are playing better footy than the Lions, even at the Gabba. Pies play well away from Melbourne.

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Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Thought id take this time to write out a few interesting stats from the season so far: - Kangaroos & Geelong both won 7 out of 8 First Quarters - Geelong won 7 out of 8 Third Quarters - Carlton lost 7 out of 8 Final Quarters - Melbourne yet to lead at half time - Western Bulldogs have only won 1 of 8 Second Halfs - Sydney won 7 of 8 Second Halfs - 6 of Richmonds 8 Losses have been Under 39.5 - 5 of West Coasts 7 Wins have been Under 39.5 - Geelongs avg winning margin is 70 from 5 wins - Geelongs avg winning margin away from home is 105 - St Kilda have scored the lowest score of the Round 3 of 8 times - Geelong have only lost 8 quarters - The only team with single digits - West Coast are the only team not to be in bottom half of ladder - Fremantle, Melbourne & Richmond only teams not to appear in top 8

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th)

Form Ladder after Round 8

Interestingly enough the bottom 6 sides all lost

Blue = WIN Red = LOSS

Pos	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8
1	Eagles	9	7	13	14	16	8	3	15	Travelling nicely
2	Power	13	6	4	7	12	15	16	9	First loss to team outside the 8 this round
3	Cats	8	14	15	5	6	16	1	13	Four wins against bottom four sides, and Eagles at home
4	Crows	10	8	2	9	13	7	11	16	Able to beat any team on their day
5	Hawks	11	15	6	3	8	10	13	12	Beaten 2 of the top 6 teams, going along ok
6	Roos	7	2	5	11	3	9	10	14	Only lost to teams in the Top 7
7	Pies	6	1	16	2	10	4	14	8	Three losses to teams in the 8
8	Dogs	3	4	12	16	5	1	15	7	Beaten three teams in the eight, including 3rd and 5th team
9	Swans	1	16	11	4	15	6	12	2	First win against top 8 team on the weekend
10	Bombers	4	13	14	12	7	5	6	11	Still only beaten one team in the Top 8
11	Lions	5	12	9	6	14	13	4	10	Only team it has beaten in the Top 8 was Hawks R1
12	Saints	15	11	8	10	2	14	9	5	Competitive considering their injuries
13	Freo	2	10	1	15	4	11	5	3	Enigma
14	Blues	16	3	10	1	11	12	7	6	Like a 60's Band, The Easybeats, but have a crack
15	Demons	12	5	3	13	9	2	8	1	Looked set to improve but spineless against the Eagles
16	Tigers	14	9	7	8	1	3	2	4	Played Top 4 teams last four weeks, plays 10th team this week

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Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th)

16

Tigers

14

9

7

8

1

3

2

4

Played the Top 4 teams last four weeks, plays 10th team

The Tigers have only been playing teams above them on the ladder all this year, be hard for any team to do :lol

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Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) That table is a good tool Beejay, but i think the data from Round 1 to about Round 5 are irelivent. From now onwards it will become much more accurate as the positions become more static rather than early in the season where teams move around quite alot, wins against teams in the top 8 will mean alot more than they did in Round 1 or 2 now. Also another thing, it says Brisbane lost agaisnt the 10th ranked side (Essendon) but Essendon were ranked 12th before the game was played. Same thing with the Power, they lost to Sydney when the Swans were ranked 11th, not 9th. Do you think it would be more accurate if you figure in the position of the teams before the round rather than after? Just a thought. Great stuff though, will be a very handy tool in coming weeks :cheers

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Yeah I see your point Ads. I basically adjust it for the positions on the Ladder after the round that has played. Round 8 has finished and all teams have played teams according to the position on the ladder after round 8. Am thinking over a period of time the ladder sorts itself out and stays much the same, so figures more relevant then. Only using it as a guide to be honest, another way to look at how teams are actually going. Take Geelong for interest...Sitting third and in great form, but 2 home wins against the teams from Perth, rest of their wins are all against the 3 bottom sides...High averages For/Against due to flogging 2 of the bottom 3 teams. When Geelong face a team in top 4 or top 8 they will be way under the odds, especially at Skilled, that's when us guys in here can pounce, when the Cats are really short against one of the better teams...We will get value about the other team if anything.

[Beejayville]

Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Quick Teams Summary Fremantle V St Kilda At Subiaco Last 10 played Freo W7 L3 Last 3 games all won by Fremantle, including one at York Park Tasmania in Round 5, 2006 Hawthorn V West Coast At York Park Last 3 played Hawks W1 L2 West Coast have won the last 5 games against the Hawks, including 2 at York Park Tasmania. Carlton V Adelaide Appears to be the first time Blues have played Adelaide at the Dome. Last 5 games played Carlton W1 L4 Adelaide has won 4 of last 5 matches between these two teams Brisbane V Collingwood At the Gabba Brisbane W7 L0 Brisbane have won 4 of the last 5 meetings, tho Pies won most recent meeting at the MCG roud 10, 2006 Richmond V Essendon At MCG Richmond W21 L25 Last 5 games Richmond W3 L2 Richmond has won their last 3 games against Essendon and may be value this week as they may believe they can win and play accorddingly. Bulldogs v Sydney No games played between these 2 at Manuka Oval Most meetings have been at the SCG. Sydney have won the last 4 meetings spanning 2003-2006 Prior to that the Doggies won 5 in a row Melbourne V Kangaroos At MCG Melbourne W54 L29 Last 7 played Melbourne W6 L1 Melbourne have won 6 of the last 7 meetings, and loss was by only 7 points. the last time the Kangaroos beat the Demons at the MCG was in 2003. Port vs Geelong At AAMI Last 9 played Port W6 L2 D1 Geelong won the last 3 matches, 2 at home and won at AAMI Roud 5, 2005. What have we learnt? Tigers and Demons are losers but have very strong head to head records against their opponents and will be at good odds. Cats are away to Port and play at a ground where they have only won 2 from last 9 Brisbane have a 100% record at home to Collingwood as pointed out by Ads earlier. Sydney have the wood on the Bulldogs, especially away from Melboune. West Coast seem to have no trouble beating the Hawks, even in Tasmania. That is why Hawks are paying over $2-20. The West Coast have covered Ben Cousins this season, so they can cover Daniel Kerr.

[vagabund]

Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) You guys are making me interested in your national sport (I assume) more and more. It sounds a lot of fun and it seems more if it involves potential to make $$. How do I learn about the sport better? Any suggestions for books/websites? I am particularly interested in pursuing it from stats' point of view. Ads25, When will your computer generated predictions for this week come out? Can you share your method as Burntua Crisp or is it a secret recipe?

[ads25]

Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th)

You guys are making me interested in your national sport (I assume) more and more. It sounds a lot of fun and it seems more if it involves potential to make $$. How do I learn about the sport better? Any suggestions for books/websites? I am particularly interested in pursuing it from stats' point of view. Ads25, When will your computer generated predictions for this week come out? Can you share your method as Burntua Crisp or is it a secret recipe?

AFL would probably be our National sport when I think about it. More people play soccer (football) overal, but there is alot more interest in the AFL, especially in lower Australia. It expanded into a National competition in 1987 and has grown very strong to the point where tv networks here in Australia paid nearly $800M for the TV rights deal only last year. The game itself is kind of difficult to explain. Its sort of like a cross between Rugby, Basketball and American Football i guess. There are 4 posts at either end with the two middle posts being larger than the outside ones, if you kick the ball through the middle ones you are awarded 6 points for a 'goal', while if you kick in between the outer ones your rewarded 1 point for a 'behind'. Think its the only sport in the world which awards points for inaccuracy :lol Wikipedia is usually a good source for info, check out this link below for example, should help explain it a bit more :ok http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Football_League

[ads25]

Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th)

Ads25, When will your computer generated predictions for this week come out? Can you share your method as Burntua Crisp or is it a secret recipe?

In regards to this, ive actually set up a thread on PL in the Other Sports forum. Keeping track of all the results and have explained in detail how i worked it out. Click here to have a look mate :ok I usually update it at the end of each round with the results (although ive been a bit slack this week). Im not currently at home at the moment so cant post this weeks predictions, but will so later on ;)

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Not sure where you live vagabund but don't several OS TV networks have a weekly highlights or best game package? Bjv's table is best useful as is IMO. To display it in relation to current ladder position gives the best feel. Of course such a table will always be useless if we don't individually look deeper. I.e. Game was long time ago, team strength at time, team form at time, venue, etc. E.g. Geelong - at a glance the table tells us to take a deeper look. Soccer played more than Aussie Rules? is that right?? :unsure