aliando Posted April 13, 2007 Share Posted April 13, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread havent followed the thread so not sure if its been mentioned but thought this may be of some interest to some of you http://embgfx.co.uk/broadcasts/external/victorchandler/2007_03_12/sid_lef.gif" width="17"> Dear Alex, The Grand National takes place this Saturday at 4.15pm and at VC Bet we are running an unbelievable offer on the race: Have a bet on the Grand National and if your selection FALLS, we’ll refund your losing stake as a FREE BET* Plus, we are now NON-RUNNER NO BET on the Grand National so if your selection doesn’t run, we’ll refund your stake. Your VC Bet Account No/ID: 313502 http://embgfx.co.uk/broadcasts/external/victorchandler/2007_03_06/bot_left.gif" height="17" nowrap="nowrap" width="17"> Get the lowdown on the big race with Channel 4 Racing’s Simon Holt. Just click the link below to launch the video. Grand National Free Fall T&C’s 1. Applies to bets placed from Wednesday 11th April 2007. 2. Maximum refund is £50 per person per selection. Maximum total refund per person is £500. 3. Applies to internet and telephone bets only. 4. Also applies to Unseated Rider and Brought Down. 5. Applies to win and each way bets (maximum refund £50 win or £25 each way) 6. Refunds credited to accounts by midday Tuesday and must be used within 7 days. 7. Refunds will appear in customers promo cash balance and must be re-bet once. Promo cash cannot be withdrawn and stakes are not included in any returns. 8. Cannot be used in conjunction with any other offer. If you have any problems or questions regarding your VC Bet account, please contact the Customer Services team on 08000 787879 or e-mail [email protected] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werdnatrebor Posted April 13, 2007 Share Posted April 13, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread LOOK NO FURTHER.THE WINNER COMES FROM THESE FIVE: POINT BARROW SIMON DUN DOIRE MCEVERLEY NUMBERSIXVERVALDE If i had to be pushed i`d go for POINT BARROW to beat SIMON i`m gonna back all for profit...have never been the graetest of tippers so the wiser option may be for you all to lay the lot!!.......but something feels right this time.:nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gregprowt Posted April 13, 2007 Share Posted April 13, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread thanks for the update on the trends again Danny one question does Slim Picking now match that Critera now that he is available at 40-1 (even though he is 33-1 in most places) Greg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tipstar Posted April 13, 2007 Share Posted April 13, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Available @ partypoker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ Posted April 13, 2007 Share Posted April 13, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread So far.... £10 on Simon @ 26 £10 on Point Barrow @ 11 £30 on Joe's Edge @ 10.5 All with Betfair.... Joe's Edge was my original fancy and sadly had the nerves when high odds and then the odds went crashing down so I got in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soloshchenko Posted April 13, 2007 Share Posted April 13, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Well I've backed Point Barrow and Mckelvey E/W and today picked Kelami in the works sweep stake so should pick up something. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted April 13, 2007 Share Posted April 13, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Simon needs the ground to soften up but its worth a small punt. Point Barrow and McKelvey for me as the main bets. Bother Na and The Outlier also for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SecondSight Posted April 13, 2007 Share Posted April 13, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread I know f all about horse racing, but have put a modest each way on McKelvey, before I read the thread where he seems popular ;) . I could only get 16/1 this evening, but Bet365 pay out on first 5 places. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted April 13, 2007 Share Posted April 13, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Yeah SS I tipped him up when he was 33/1 so the money has come in for him and your going to get a good run for your money from him. AP was due to ride him originally but he's on L'Ami god knows why as French Horses dont win the GN Mckelvey (IRE) 8 10-4 P Bowen Has won over 4miles before, won't want it too soft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekendgambler Posted April 13, 2007 Share Posted April 13, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread My bet for the national is hedgehunter at 4.4 to be placed........ Good luck all......:dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted April 13, 2007 Share Posted April 13, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread If HH places Ill give you the money myself;)* * not really but you get my drift. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ Posted April 13, 2007 Share Posted April 13, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread So are Simon's odds moving down just because of it's name? I placed £10 on it earlier and could lay to make £20 profit if it wins or break even if not. I have put £10 on Mckelvey due to the fact that it's talked up so much and odds are falling fast. Managed to get @ 18 whereas earlier think was @ 23+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted April 13, 2007 Share Posted April 13, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread So are Simon's odds moving down just because of it's name? yeah thats how bookmakers make there money;) Na mate he's drifting cus of the ground etc. Lets put it this way Simons connections are doing the rain dance around the fire at the moment with feathers in there hair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted April 13, 2007 Share Posted April 13, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread thanks for the update on the trends again Danny one question does Slim Picking now match that Critera now that he is available at 40-1 (even though he is 33-1 in most places) Greg Good question and the price side of it is entirlely up to you mate. I had to scrub out a 40-1 second (Royal Auclair) purely for price reasons. My bet is already matched so I'm stuck. I think I may do a small bet on Royal Auclair too at the price, maybe e/w - he has been tipped up my a few sources, also might do Carl's Outlier seeing as it also fits the criteria and I've never backed a 100-1 winner before :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted April 13, 2007 Share Posted April 13, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Fook off ya cnut dont be following me you just watch Headhunter piss it by 10 L's;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted April 13, 2007 Share Posted April 13, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread If I'm going down, you're coming down with me brother....:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodie Posted April 13, 2007 Share Posted April 13, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Been keen on Point Barrow all week for reasons later. Can't have Dun Doire or Simon with the ground. I agree on Hedghunter about a place can't see him winning again though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonny1723 Posted April 13, 2007 Share Posted April 13, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread My ante-post picks are (in no particular order): Point Barrow @ 33/1 Liberthine @ 59/1 Bothar Na @ 28/1 Bewley's Berry @ 31/1 Mckelvey @ The only ones that'ves really moved are Point Barrow and Mckelvey. However, now the day is here I' m not too sure about a couple of them. Point Barrow hasn't run for 90 days, which according to Carl's (I think) post, isn't good. Bewley's Berry and Bothar Na have been off the track for even longer, so again I'm not too confident. Liberthine looks like he won't get the trip. This leaves me with Mckelvey really, although now the day is almost here, I have a fancy for Silver Birch. I might have a few quid on him tomorrow. What are peopl's opinions on the days off the track stat - it seems to rule a lot of horses out this year ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted April 13, 2007 Author Share Posted April 13, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread MCKELVEY - He will definitely get in now. He has course form, has distance form, he is in form, beating some good horses over hurdles last week, he is a good jumper, appears to have been trained for this race all season, has a superb racing weight of 10stone 4 and even though his price has shortened this week, still rates the best value in the race at 38.0. Lots and lots in his favour and looking at some of the horses trading at half his price is baffling. NUMBERSIXVALVERDE - last years winner gets in off a great racing weight of 11 stone 3lbs. Would this extra burden have stopped him from winning last year? I personally dont think so and his preparation this season has gone like clockwork. Looks nailed on to run a big race. KELAMI - French breds dont stay? This one does! Classy type with form at very high levels over extreme distances. Goes on any going, good jumper, Stable buoyant and despite a no-show at Cheltenham, returned to form in a hurdle prep race in france last time out. 10 stone 11lbs is ideal. ROYAL AUCLAIR - Outstanding effort 2 years ago to finish 2nd to Hedgehunter off top weight. Races off 9 lb's lower this year as he slipped down the ratings as a result of a very average season last year. Signs this year that he is returning to something like his old form, which would give him a huge chance if he finds it. Paul Nicholls is openly buoyant about the weight he has been alloted and should run a big race. Im also green on PHILSON RUN, but I cant remember why I backed it now :lol Not without a chance though with endless stamina to call on. Not sure if he's classy enough though. I had LORD OF ILLUSION at a silly price (180/1 i think :eek) unfortunately he's been pulled out. Others I considered are IDLE TALK but I had doubts about his jumping - unseated last twice. LONGSHANKS - Not convinced this one is classy enough, a bit too lighly raced for my liking too JOES EDGE - Appeared to peak when winning at Cheltenham. Will do well to follow up with another peak performance here. I agree with Carl that POINT BARROW has a massive chance but is a touch too short for me. SILVER BIRCH keeps catching my eye as well and I might have a saver on him although he had a tough race at Cheltenham too and would prefer soft ground, which he is highly unlikely to get. One that has seen bundles of money this week is OSSMOSES. If the ground was soft, this would be my main bet but ive just checked the forecast for the next 10 days for Liverpool and there is no sign of rain between now and then, which brings us to 3 days before the big race. Its shame as I like this horse and there wouldnt be many more worthy winners. Still, weather forecasters can be wrong cant they! Well they were my thoughts a couple of weeks ago and not a great deal has changed. I've managed to lay off to get my stake back on Royal Auclair, Numbersixvalverde and McKelvey, who nevertheless is still my biggest winner and with the stable winning the Topham chase today, he should be in prime condition. I'm still quite big green on Kelami as his price drifted and I couldnt lay off so that plan went a bit pear shaped :( Still, there are worse outsiders than him in the race. Of the others, I have had a bit of a change of heart on Joes Edge. Yes, its entirely possible that he peaked for Cheltenham, in which case this race could be a big ask. However, you cant get away from the fact that his breeding is littered with out and out stayers (2 scottish national winners and a English National winner amongst his family), he ran a good race in 7th last year when the ground went against him, he has his ground this year and is off a lower weight and is in form. I owe Billyhills one for pointing me in this ones direction - Bewleys Berry is one who will be seeing my money tomorrow at around 22/1. Followed Eurotrek home earlier this season over the Aintree fences, he jumped impeccably that day. He has form in top class races so looks to have the talent. He was found out last time on heavy ground which has led to some doubting his ability to last the trip but he looks an out and out stayer and his low weight will help. Simon is another one with big each way claims. He was mightily impressive in winning the Racing Post trophy last time, showing no signs of slowing down at the finishing line and wont be penalised for that win either. The ground is a big concern as he has never run on good before but im hoping the fact he is 10lb well in will help counteract that. I saw an interview with Andrew Thornton today and he said the horse had been acting on the ground in training so shouldnt be a problem. I dont think we'll know if he acts on the ground until the race is actually underway to be honest. I still like the rejuvenated Silver Birch who despite the common feeling he wants it soft, has some very useful form on firmer ground earlier in his career. He rates a great each way bet and as he's a grey, you will be able to easily spot him in the big field so thats an added bonus! :lol I honestly cannot remember a more competitive Grand National than this one. I hope McKelvey proves me wrong but I fancy Bewleys Berry to pip him. 1. Bewleys Berry 2. McKelvey 3. Joes Edge 4. Simon 5. Silver Birch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted April 13, 2007 Author Share Posted April 13, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Point Barrow hasn't run for 90 days, which according to Carl's (I think) post, isn't good Point Barrow ran 21 days ago mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted April 13, 2007 Author Share Posted April 13, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread sorry about the bold type, i cant switch it off :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted April 13, 2007 Share Posted April 13, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Never looked at the race to be honest. I take every day as it comes. At first glance... Point Barrow and Bewleys Berry. Let's see what will be my thoughts when I go through the card :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonny1723 Posted April 13, 2007 Share Posted April 13, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Oops - so it did - my card must be wrong.:$ Guess I'm quite happy with the 33's then. ;) Cheers AK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 13, 2007 Share Posted April 13, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread down to 4 to win Point barrow Simon Dun Doire Joes Edge all 3 have question marks over the ground, however they have been watering it for last 3 days to ensure it is not fast. ew selections are Slim pickings & Graphic approach I only want 1 to win & 1 ew. I will narrow these down tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodie Posted April 13, 2007 Share Posted April 13, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Just a quick write up on some of the fancied runner of top of my head. I would recomend no bet but thats no fun ;) Hedgehunter loves the course hasn't had the best prep for this years race despite top weight he is sure to run his race wouldn't surprise me if he sneaked a place. Eurotrek very lightly raced, has a big weight but no questions about his talent. Won over the national course early in season with a big weight, has been aimed at this race all season. L'ami mount of A P McCoy is one of the top 3mile+ chases around, always there or there about in his races, questions about will he stay. French bred horses have a terrible record in this race so does AP! Monkerhostin like L'ami French bred, lightly raced this campaign big weight, others preferred. Numbersixvalverde last years winner 11lbs higher now but did win nicely last year. If ground was on soft side would have a great chance of following up, still has great chance today but would prefer softer ground. Royal Auclair 2nd 2 years ago when 6lbs higher, fell at the first last year. Looks to be coming back into form worse 40/1 shots for sure. Point Barrow great jumper yet to fall in all his starts, Irish national winner last year on similar ground as today, fits all trends for this race has huge chance. Simon a few fancy Simon 9 pounds well in today won last two nicely enough, just worried about the ground being to firm for him. Bewleys Berry 2nd to Eurotrek here in the breechers is 6lbs better of today, very good jumper, stays and loves the ground 22/1 nice price. Longshanks few whispers for this hasn't run for some time but has won before from a break. Ground no worries could go well at a price. McKelvey fits into a lot of the trends has a nice weight, trainer in superb form had a winner yesterday over the national course. Stays forever and ground no problem has a great chance for a jockey with his first national ride. Joes Edge has no weight to worry about, won at the cheltenham festival just a month ago. Connections had a nice winner yesterday stable in flying form. But did have a hard race at Cheltenham. Is current favourite but favs have horrid record in this race. final top 3 imo 1. Point Barrow 2. Bewleys Berry 3. McKelvey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted April 14, 2007 Share Posted April 14, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Ill just bump this up to the top for our 22 guests;) c'mon guys dont be shy tell us what you think Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gregprowt Posted April 14, 2007 Share Posted April 14, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread OK here goes, heres the 1st time Ive named any horses on here, because I leave that to you wise people :) after what Ive read on here and all the work on the trends by Dannycash and Carl and also my own thoughts Im going for 1. McKelvely 2. Monkerhostin 3. Bewley Berry 4. Longshanks Longshanks is in there more on hope :hope as I have an ante post bet at 33-1 on this, and am a bit gutted it's not shorter, howver I will be laying some of it for a slight margin best of luck to everyone!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekendgambler Posted April 14, 2007 Share Posted April 14, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread How many places do betfair give in the national? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodie Posted April 14, 2007 Share Posted April 14, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Think it's 4 matey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted April 14, 2007 Author Share Posted April 14, 2007 Re: Grand National Discussion Thread Yes, betfair pay 4. try to find the right balance between the better place odds on betfair, who only pay 4 places and slightly worse odds with the bookies, most of whom will pay out on the first 5 home. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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