Kanga Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well another draw but also another win for the "lay the away" ChampionshipTPBGMWResultSheff Utd v Crewe61.6%52%3-20-0 :unsure I'll post the running totals tomorrow morning :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swagman Posted March 4, 2006 Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. That's strange Kanga. I'm assuming i'm checking the right figs - I'm launching the predictor and checking the weekly predictions [not the game simulations]. I've just checked again and come up with the same figs as before:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 4, 2006 Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Yep, Weekly predictions and home % figures - I've deleted my cookies and internet files, rebooted and even tried accessing the site from the times home page rather than direct from my favourites but I still get the same figures - I have noticed this before - I wonder if it's regional ????? Can anybody else check and confirm any changes please - as it's concerning :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 4, 2006 Author Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. .... already checked Andy, and I confirm the same figures as you gave above.I do know that they usually change on a daily basis, but have not encountered the differences Swagman suggests.I note lots of matches posponed today,that will reek havoc with a few punters today.:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swagman Posted March 4, 2006 Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Perplexing. I've rechecked and also run simulations , as I've noted that as a general rule these concur with predictions and I get the same results [apart from P.Vale still been 48 but this is because the sims round to the nearest whole #]. Like Kanga suggests , it would be really helpful for a few people to help out by checking to see whether the anomaly lies with me alone, I'm lost as to a reason as I can't see there been any regional issues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laying larry Posted March 4, 2006 Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Gents I will have a look if you want, I think that I could really confuse the issue. :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laying larry Posted March 4, 2006 Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Swagman, I have just checked on the predictor and the results were identical to those that Kanga posted on post #276 :\ . Hope this helps. Cheers LL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 4, 2006 Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Thanks for all the inputs :- Just to confirm these are the selections for today originally 7 now down to 5 because of the 2 postponements :- DatePremiershipTPBGMWOdds04/03/06Aston Villa v Portsmouth48.2%55%2-01.72:hope 04/03/06Liverpool v Charlton79.7%61%1-01.50:hope DateChampionshipTPBGMWOdds04/03/06Cardiff v Sheff Wed52.8%72%2-01.66:hope 04/03/06Southampton v Coventry61.0%56%2-02.00:hope 04/03/06Watford v Derby66.6%70%3-11.57:hope The 2 Postponements are :- DatePostponedTPBGMWOdds04/03/06Port Vale v Milton Keynes Dons49.3%56%3-2P-P04/03/06Preston v Ipswich55.8%59%2-1P-P I'm looking for some good things from these 5, and 4 wins would do nicely :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laying larry Posted March 4, 2006 Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. another cracking day for the layers 5 out of 5. Not so good for the backers but I do think that the overall quality of matches today was little on the poor side. Cheers LL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 4, 2006 Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Yep LL a great system for picking home wins & draws but the odds were very short this week (or long depending how you look at it) SelectionsTPBGMWResultsAston Villa v Portsmouth48.2%55%2-01-0:clap Liverpool v Charlton79.7%61%1-00-0:unsure Cardiff v Sheff Wed52.8%72%2-01-0:clap Southampton v Coventry61.0%56%2-01-1:unsure Watford v Derby66.6%70%3-12-2:unsure Will update the progress after Man City tomorrow :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 5, 2006 Share Posted March 5, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well another winner - so 3 wins & 3 draws from a difficult weekend. DatePremiershipTPBGMWOdds05/03/06Man City v Sunderland73.9%70%3-02-1:clap 05/03/06Tottenham v Blackburn45.2%47%1-13-2 Home Win only ARB 1x Lay the Away 64% Strike Rate 93% Strike Rate 93% Strike Rate 5.83% Yield4.59% yield12.88% Yield4.43 Points Profit 3.49 Points 9.77 Points (after commission) 15 consectutive matches without losing for the arb 1x and lay methods - currently 71 selections with only 5 losses (including a Chelsea AWAY match that I shouldn't have selected) The arb 1x is low because it includes odds below 1.40 in which case even a win or draw equals a loss. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 7, 2006 Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. 3 matches for tonight but no system selections - thought I'd post the tables for those who maybe running their own systems off them DateChampionshipTPBGMWOdds07/03/06Wolves v Stoke43.4%64%1-0 DateLeague 1TPBGMWOdds07/03/06Yeovil v Brentford46.2%27%1-2 DateLeague 2TPBGMWOdds07/03/06Bury v Stockport46.7%32%0-1 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted March 7, 2006 Author Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. ... at least all of the MW predictions are correct now Andy!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 9, 2006 Share Posted March 9, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well it turns there were more matches played that night than TP had listed :spank I'm now working on the weekends tables but as yet it doesnt look like there are any selections for Friday. Bring on the weekend :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted March 9, 2006 Share Posted March 9, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 10, 2006 Share Posted March 10, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well no selections for tonight although league leaders Southernd come mighty close. DateLeague 1TPBGMWOdds10/03/06Hartlepool v Huddersfield 42.5%33%0-110/03/06M K Dons v Bristol City 38.1%48%2-110/03/06Southend v Scunthorpe 47.7%48%2-1 DateLeague 2TPBGMWOdds10/03/06Northampton v Carlisle39.6%35%1-0 I'll post later with the weekends selections :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted March 10, 2006 Share Posted March 10, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Some interesting stuff here guys ..... but I'm going to give it the kiss-of-death, because every system I've tried has always started very badly on day one, and continued for a week or more, with some heavy losses:cry Can you just summarise the system. I've read the thread (phew!!) and I think I know the rules. Using the Times Predictor you identify all home games with a %'age equal to or greater than 48%; all away games with a %'age equal to or greater than 48%, and then you've 'Dutched' the Home & Away Odds ..... yes??? Anyone have any idea if it's possible to copy the data from the Times Predictor into EXCEL (I have EXCEL XP Professional) ..... without hand typing?;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 10, 2006 Share Posted March 10, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Thunderfoot :welcome to the thread. You've almost got it these are all home win selections with TP >=48% BG >= 48% and an MW indicated home win. The straight home win method is still proving profitable or you can double chance the 1x or "Lay the Away" "Lay the away" is proving a far more profitable return with a 93% strike rate over the last 75 selections. You can't cut and paste the data from TP - I do it all by hand. But there may be a way if you know about computer programming - there are a number of programmers on the site, mcgin , datapunter, georgej who may be able to help you with this. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laying larry Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Kanga, thanks again for doing the business with the tables all the teams look a lot better than last week. Off to work now and hoping to come home to some nice profits :ok . All the best LL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi LL, Always glad of your support, things went quiet for a while with no midweek selections, still no selection is better than picking a loser :loon I'm confident of these, so :hope for a good weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. ....... I do it all by hand. Uuuummmmmm Eeeerrrrr! I'm sure there's a comment to made here ;) :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laying larry Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Evening gents, another cracking day for the slayers out there, Cheers LL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. How much might the BG & MW influence be 'diluting' possible selections? Todays selections, using just The Predictor, would have given 21 selections over the 48% Home figure, and returned just 1 'losing' Away Lay .... Bristol Rovers v Notts County. I don't have past results that The Predictor would have thrown-up, so can't justify this, but would be interesting to know ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. TF, The problem with using just 1 engine is that 1 week it can look successful the next not quite so good - by using all 3 engines in conjunction it evens out their individual statistical bias - and the combined results have been very good. Predictor Engines#WinsDrawsLossWin Only %Win & Draw %TP (48%+)10257301556%85%BG (48%+)11563331955%83%MW (3 goal)1282267%83%MW (2 goal)392113554%87%MW (1 goal)8539252146%75%MW (overall)13668402850%79%TP & BG (both 48%+)664117862%88%TP & MW (overall)724122957%88%BG & MW (overall)9051241557%83%TP + BG + MW (overall)553615465%93%TP + BG + MW (2 goal+)29189262%93% I've asked before about just posting the selections by the current method but the census at the time was to publish the full tables as people use the tables in different ways - I've asked / requested people look at the tables and post thoughts on the selection method your input would be greatly appreciated - nobody here is saying that it can't be improved but I think we have a good balance at the % rate and the number of selections picked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Well on to Sundays matches and another selection for you :- DatePremiershipTPBGMWOdds12/03/06 Man Utd v Newcastle71.3%76%3-11.40 :hope 12/03/06Charlton v Middlesbrough55.3%41%1-112/03/06Arsenal v Liverpool36.9%54%2-1 DateLeague 1TPBGMWOdds12/03/06Swansea v Walsall49.1%44%2-0 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted March 11, 2006 Share Posted March 11, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Thanks Kanga, Your analysis table proves the point. Next question is, where do you get the BG figures (free I hope;) )? I've only just started to look at the MW files .... first impression is that they are big 'n bulky with a lot of un-neccessary graphics & worksheets. Willing to be corrected though ;) . I'm still trying to find my way around them, so any directions greatly appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted March 12, 2006 Share Posted March 12, 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderfoot Posted March 12, 2006 Share Posted March 12, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Kanga, Went to LAY the Away in the Man Utd v Newcastle. By the time I opened Betfair, 20 mins after the start of the game, Man Utd were 2 - 0 up and the LAY odds on Newcastle were 100!!!:wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 12, 2006 Share Posted March 12, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Cavelloman, Great results again :clap of course you can continue to post on this thread but if your system continues to be successful as it is - it might be an idea to start a new system & strategy thread where you will get more of a specific coverage rather than as an addition to this. Thunderfoot - I can appreciate your frustration - I left a bet on betfair early this morning as I was travelling away to play a golf match (a 5hr round trip and I'm only just home) - the lay price at the time was 8.4 and I placed at 8.2 - On the drive home I heard the expected good news on the Radio only to find that my bet wasn't matched :wall There's a moral to this story somewhere :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted March 12, 2006 Share Posted March 12, 2006 Re: Times Newspaper Predictor. Hi Kanga, At the moment I'm just experimenting with the Times predictor and floating ideas. If my present idea works till the end of the season I will run a full system from my own thread from next season starting in November. Like you I feel with football system betting a high strike is essential to avoid long losing runs that can cause a loss of confidence in the selection criteria. Keep up the good work and discovering the power of the Times Predictor is certainly been the best thing I got from the Punterslounge this year. By the way who is BG? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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