slapdash Posted January 30, 2006 Author Share Posted January 30, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Thanks, guys. Hope somebody ignored me and took the prices on Norma Hill and Great as Gold! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted January 30, 2006 Share Posted January 30, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 :clap Mr. S. I'll just insert my standard ' forgot to check my e-mails this afternoon' excuse here, shall I? :spank :cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peejaytwo Posted January 30, 2006 Share Posted January 30, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 correct slapdash, asa well as ignoring adventurist i took the 5/1 and 6/1 on offer with the tote.:D glad i did something ok,lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLH Posted January 30, 2006 Share Posted January 30, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Concerning the decision about SP or fixed odds, perhaps spliting the stake in two halves would be the solution. Especially, in the case of heavy doubts. Just an idea how to diversify the risks. BTW do you have any rule when you make the decision or is it just a common sense and years of experience? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemcin02 Posted January 30, 2006 Share Posted January 30, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Hey Slapdash I think your results on sports-punter are wrong. Anyway welldone today and thanks for helping me to make some great profits. :ok cheers steve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 30, 2006 Author Share Posted January 30, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Concerning the decision about SP or fixed odds' date=' perhaps spliting the stake in two halves would be the solution. Especially, in the case of heavy doubts. Just an idea how to diversify the risks. BTW do you have any rule when you make the decision or is it just a common sense and years of experience?[/quote'] Years of experience? No, more like a blind guess, really! Some things I take into account are: In favour of early price: Other bookies have much lower prices. Betfair's win price is much lower. The odds seem to getting cut at other bookies. The trend of the odds on Betfair seems to be downwards. In favour of SP: Lots of bookies have the best early price. Betfair's win price is higher. Odds on other horses in the race are being cut. The trend of the odds on Betfair seems to be upwards. Plus I've noticed that if there are two clear market leaders, then the other horses seem to tend to drift on-course, although I haven't really tested this, and it didn't work today! But very often it's more or less a toss-up. I try to give some idea of my confidence in the write-ups. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLH Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Thanks for your reply. Sounds quite reasonable to me. We have another chance to try it on this one: Southwell 13:50 Brother Cadfael @10 (Stanjames/Bet365/Betfred) Two favorites in this race... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 31, 2006 Author Share Posted January 31, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Been busy, and looks like I've missed the price on that one. Good luck if you're on it. I'll probably see what the price is just before the race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLH Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 There is another one in the same race (Sthl 1350): Robbie Will @12 (Sportingbet). Very strange race is Folkestone at 1330. I wonder how the prices will change before the start. Classic Role, Sarin and White On Black might go up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLH Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 I still have a lot to learn. Folkestone 1330 had a strong favourite (Straw Bear 1,22) that easily won the race. Bookies 1-3 place prices (SP) were much higher than on Betfair: White On Black 4,6 against 3,4 Sarin 4,4 against 3,1 Classic Role 3,8 against 2,1 The Win prices were much lower (50-70% of Betfair). However I was temted by the huge difference in Place prices so I took these three horses... loss of 11units (Classic Role placed, the other two not). Southwell race went wrong as well so you can be glad you missed it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 31, 2006 Author Share Posted January 31, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Hmm. I had a really busy day today, so didn't get a chance to look at these seriously. Looks like I might have been lucky! The one you noticed in the Southwell race came fourth, I notice. Close! Don't know if you've looked at my "EW Doubles" thread? The type of horse you found in the Folkestone race are the kind I'd put there (but because of the bad win odds, not here). The logic being that as a single, any advantage you have in the place part is likely to be outweighed by the disadvantage you have in the win part. But say you had two horses where you expect a yield of -50% on the win and +50% on the place. If you put them in an EW double, then you'd expect a yield of -75% on the win and +125% on the place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLH Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 I see. I had a feeling these underpriced horses might be useful:-) Next time I will take this idea into account. I also found out that some races have kind of pattern that remains although the prices change so you can find the desirable differences between bookies E-Ws and Betfair even in the rush time before the race. The disadvantage is in the fact you can not take the best prices based on bookies mistakes. The good news is that the risk of NR, big changes and other surprises is reduced to minimum level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 1, 2006 Author Share Posted February 1, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 1.45 Leicester Fight the Feeling (20/1 Bet365) 10 points EW. Each way system. Long odds-on favourite. There are only seven runners and so two places, but we're getting 6.00 for the place, compared to a lay price of 4.70 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price of 22.00 is only a shade more than we're getting. 16/1 is the most common early price, and Bet365 are the only ones offering as much as 20/1, so I'll take that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 1, 2006 Author Share Posted February 1, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Lost, so a 20 point loss. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 1419.40 Total Staked: 1060 W/P/L: 10/15/28 Profit/Loss: +419.40 (Win +242.33, Place +177.07) Yield: +39.57% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 2, 2006 Author Share Posted February 2, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 2.00 Wincanton Art Virginia (SP) 10 points EW. Each way system. Long odds-on favourite. At the best early price of 8/1, we'd be getting 2.60 for the place, compared to a lay price of 1.64 on Betfair. The Betfair win price of 10.50 is a bit higher, but given the huge discrepancy in place prices, I'll accept that. Several bookies have 8/1 and I'll guess to take SP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 2, 2006 Author Share Posted February 2, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 2.00 Wincanton Hill Forts Tommy (SP) 10 points EW. Each way system. Long odds-on favourite. At the best early price of 9/1, we'd be getting 2.80 for the place, compared to a lay price of 1.64 on Betfair. The Betfair win price of 12.50 is a higher than I'd like, but given the huge discrepancy in place prices, I'll accept that. Several bookies have 9/1 and I'll guess to take SP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 2, 2006 Author Share Posted February 2, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Hill Forts Tommy placed at 12/1. NRs cut the race down to 7 runners, so that's a quarter the odds. Art Virginia lost, so I've broken even. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 1419.40 Total Staked: 1100 W/P/L: 10/16/29 Profit/Loss: +419.40 (Win +222.33, Place +197.07) Yield: +38.13% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 3, 2006 Author Share Posted February 3, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 3.20 Wolverhampton Angelina Bankes (100/30 Stan James) 10 points EW. Each way system. Short priced favourite, and all bu the front three in the market at very long odds. We're getting 1.67 for the place, compared to a lay price of 1.44 on Betfair. Also, the Betfair win price is only 4.00. Since Stan James are the only ones offering 100/30 and Betfair are shorter, I'll take the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 3, 2006 Author Share Posted February 3, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 4.20 Wolverhampton Miss Inch (10/1 Stan James) 10 points EW. Each way system. Odds-on favourite. We're getting 3.00 for the place, compared to a lay price of 2.18 on Betfair. The Betfair win price is 12.00: a little higher than we're getting. Since Stan James are the only ones offering 10/1 and other bookies are only offering 8/1, I'll take the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 3, 2006 Author Share Posted February 3, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 3.20 Wolverhampton Bekoning (33/1 Sporting Odds) 10 points EW. Each way system. Short priced favourite. We're getting 7.60 for the place, compared to a lay price of 5.90 on Betfair. Also, the Betfair win price is only 27.00. Sporting Odds' price is a lot better than other bookies, so I'll take the price. It might not last long. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 3, 2006 Author Share Posted February 3, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Sorry, got the race time wrong. Miss Inch is in the 4.50 Wolverhampton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 5, 2006 Author Share Posted February 5, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Angelina Bankes placed, the other two lost. 43.33 points lost on the day. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 1376.07 Total Staked: 1160 W/P/L: 10/17/31 Profit/Loss: +376.07 (Win +192.33, Place +183.74) Yield: +32.42% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 5, 2006 Author Share Posted February 5, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 1.10 Musselburgh Ablastfromthepast (20/1 Sporting Odds) 10 points EW. Large handicap system. We're getting 6.00 for the place compared to a lay price of 4.30 on Betfair. The Betfair win price is 21.00, the same as we're getting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 5, 2006 Author Share Posted February 5, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 1.10 Musselburgh Emerald Destiny (50/1 Sporting Odds) 10 points EW. Large handicap system. We're getting 13.50 for the place compared to a lay price of 9.00 on Betfair. The Betfair win price is 40.00, also less than we're getting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 5, 2006 Author Share Posted February 5, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 5th and 6th, with 4 places paid. :( 40 points lost. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 1336.07 Total Staked: 1200 W/P/L: 10/17/33 Profit/Loss: +336.07 (Win +172.33, Place +163.74) Yield: +28.01% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphex Method Posted February 5, 2006 Share Posted February 5, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Unlucky there Slapdash! Impressive profit/yield figures, best of luck with this long term. Cheers!:beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 7, 2006 Author Share Posted February 7, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 1.50 Market Rasen Slew Charm (5/1 Totesport) 10 points EW. Each way system. We're getting 2.00 for the place compared to a lay price of 1.73 on Betfair. The Betfair win price is 6.20, just slightly more than we're getting. Several bookies have already cut this to 4/1, so I'll take the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 7, 2006 Author Share Posted February 7, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 1.50 Market Rasen Shannon Springs (7/1 Stan James) 10 points EW. Each way system. We're getting 2.40 for the place, compared to a lay price of 2.00 on Betfair. The Betfair win price is 8.40, slightly more than we're getting. Odds seem to be shortening at several bookies, so I'll take the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 7, 2006 Author Share Posted February 7, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Slew Charm won, with Shannon Springs placed. That's a 64 point profit. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 1400.07 Total Staked: 1240 W/P/L: 11/18/33 Profit/Loss: +400.07 (Win +212.33, Place +187.74) Yield: +32.26% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 8, 2006 Author Share Posted February 8, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 1.10 Carlisle Nikola (3/1 Paddy Power) 10 points EW. Each way system. There's an odds-on favourite, and this one is clear second favourite. We're getting 1.60 for the place, compared to a lay price of 1.41 on Betfair. The Betfair win price is 3.85, shorter than we're getting. As Betfait and all other bookies have shorter odds, I'll take the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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