slapdash Posted February 25, 2006 Author Share Posted February 25, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 4.55 Chepstow Regal Term (22/1 Stan James) 10 points EW. Each way system. Slightly odds on favourite, and also a short-priced second favourite. We're getting 5.40 for the place, compared to a lay price of 4.40 on Betfair (and there's been trading at much lower prices than that). The win price on Betfair is 26.00, a bit higher than I'd like, but the difference in place prices is enough to compensate. Since there's a lot of variation in early prices, with some bookies as low as 14/1, I'll take the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 25, 2006 Author Share Posted February 25, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 4.55 Chepstow Blue Splash (22/1 Stan James) 10 points EW. Each way system. Slightly odds on favourite, and also a short-priced second favourite. We're getting 5.40 for the place, compared to a lay price of 4.70 on Betfair. The win price on Betfair is 24.00, a touch higher than we're getting. Since there's a lot of variation in early prices, with some bookies as low as 16/1, I'll take the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 25, 2006 Author Share Posted February 25, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 5.05 Newcastle Kilmackilloge (9/2 Stan James) 10 points EW. Each way system. Odds on favourite. We're getting 1.90 for the place, compared with a lay price of 1.57 on Betfair. The win price on Betfair is 6.00, which is higher than we're getting, but not too much. Only Stan James has 9/2, with other bookies offering 4/1 or 7/2, so I'll take the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLH Posted February 25, 2006 Share Posted February 25, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Welcome back. What about Lingfield 5.15 - Countrywide Luck @11 (Stanjames, Sportingbet)? Bet365 cut the price to 9. One NR in this race already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 25, 2006 Author Share Posted February 25, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Welcome back. What about Lingfield 5.15 - Countrywide Luck @11 (Stanjames, Sportingbet)? Bet365 cut the price to 9. One NR in this race already. Lay price on Betfair is currently 3.25, compared to the 3.50 you'd get at 10/1. A bit too close for me, although the win price on Betfair is also significantly lower, but maybe there was more of a difference when you looked? I've never really looked at races like this (no short-priced favourite and not a 16+ runner handicap), mainly because they rarely seemed to have horses where the Betfair place price was a lot lower. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 25, 2006 Author Share Posted February 25, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 3.20 Fairyhouse Kymandjen (9/1 Bet Direct) 10 point EW. Each way system. Odds on favourite. We're getting 2.80 for the place, compared to a lay price of 2.20 on Betfair. The win price on Betfair is the same as we're getting. Only Bet Direct offer 9/1, with some other bookies as short as 6/1, so I'll take the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 26, 2006 Author Share Posted February 26, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Killmackilloge was placed, with a 10p rule 4 deduction, and the other three lost. That's a 61.9 point loss. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 1387.17 Total Staked: 1780 W/P/L: 12/29/48 Profit/Loss: +387.17 (Win +152.33, Place +234.84) Yield: +21.75% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 27, 2006 Author Share Posted February 27, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 2.00 Ayr Love That Benny (7/1 Stan James) 10 points EW. Each way system. Favourite's around even money. We're getting 2.40 for the place, compared to a lay price of 2.10 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is only just higher, at 8.20. I'll guess to take the early price, with no real conviction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 27, 2006 Author Share Posted February 27, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Love That Benny was a winner. So 84 points profit. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 1471.17 Total Staked: 1800 W/P/L: 13/29/48 Profit/Loss: +471.17 (Win +222.33, Place +248.84) Yield: +26.18% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemcin02 Posted February 27, 2006 Share Posted February 27, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Hey slapdash Another great selection, welldone :ok I watched the odds on betfair and that benny went all the way out to 50. unlucky for some poor sod who layed him at that! Stemcin01 (steve) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 27, 2006 Author Share Posted February 27, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Thanks, Steve. By the way, I've finally got around to sorting out a spreadsheet with last year's results in, and one thing that stands out is that on the really long-priced selections (bigger than 20/1) I lost money betting in singles. I made a good profit on the place bets, but lost a packet on the win bets. From 266 selections I had only two winners at 25/1 and 28/1. So unless they seem really outstanding selections, I won't post these any more here or on Sports Punter. But I'll continue to include them in my EW Doubles thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 28, 2006 Author Share Posted February 28, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 3.20 Leicester Castle Frome (20/1 Sporting Odds) 10 points EW. Large handicap system. Were getting 6.00 for the place compared to a lay price of 4.40 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is 20.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 28, 2006 Author Share Posted February 28, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 3.20 Leicester Carl's Boy (12/1 Totesport/Paddy Power) 10 points EW. Large handicap system. We're getting 4.00 for the place compared to a lay price of 3.10 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is the same as we're getting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peejaytwo Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 hi slapdash, that stat of only 2 wins from 266 bets seems strange.surelya random sample would produce more wins yet the horses are running well enough to show a place profit. im no good with spreadsheets/computer models but it was just my first thought. good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted February 28, 2006 Share Posted February 28, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 The figure of only 2 wins is almost 3 standard deviations away from the expected result. Therfore significant to over 99%. This is clearly indicative of the known favourite/longshot bias in the market. The win on the place market clearly indicated that value did exist in that market. But did it overcome loses on the win market? From a personal perspective at the moment I only bet in the non-handicap market with E/W systems. Have you got any figures for other price bands for the E/W Handicaps system? Thanks for nice touch yesterday at Ayr. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 28, 2006 Author Share Posted February 28, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Two losers today, so a loss of 40 points. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 1431.17 Total Staked: 1840 W/P/L: 13/29/50 Profit/Loss: +431.17 (Win +202.33, Place +228.84) Yield: +23.43% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 28, 2006 Author Share Posted February 28, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Have you got any figures for other price bands for the E/W Handicaps system? I've not yet got organized enough to separate the E/W handicaps ones from the rest, I'm afraid. But I think the majority of the long-priced ones were from that system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLH Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 I've found this one: Newbury 1.30, The Castilian @13 (Sportingbet) - other bookies have 8-9. The win price at BF is the same and around 3 for place (we get 4). A bit strange thing is that SB has two NRs but Betfair has only one (Before Time). The other one (French Direction) is neither on a betting list nor NR. Any clues? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLH Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Did I miss anything? Sportingbet lift up The Castilian to 15! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted March 3, 2006 Author Share Posted March 3, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 A bit strange thing is that SB has two NRs but Betfair has only one (Before Time). The other one (French Direction) is neither on a betting list nor NR. Any clues? Maybe that just means that French Direction was already declared as a NR when Betfair put up the market? The Castilian looks like a good selection at Sporting Bet's 14/1, so long as there are no more NR's. I'm never quite sure what to make of it when they push the price out like that, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted March 3, 2006 Author Share Posted March 3, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Back in to 12/1 now! 3.35 for the place lay, so I think I'll leave it now, especially because of the risk of another NR. Good luck if you backed it at 14/1! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLH Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Maybe that just means that French Direction was already declared as a NR when Betfair put up the market? The Castilian looks like a good selection at Sporting Bet's 14/1, so long as there are no more NR's. I'm never quite sure what to make of it when they push the price out like that, though. There are other horses with similar prices in this race that would be possible too. Last time when I did this kind of race, prices changed radically so I am waiting right now (I took only The Castilian which is back at 13 now). The other race I am looking at is: Newbury 2.30 -Buster Collins. The price at Sportingbet has just fallen from 5 to 4,5 but with two favorites in this race, SP might be good choice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted March 3, 2006 Author Share Posted March 3, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 The Castilian placed and Buster Collins (SP 5/1) second to a 20/1 shot, beating the 11/8 favourite and 15/8 second favourite. Well spotted, SLH! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLH Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 The Castilian placed and Buster Collins (SP 5/1) second to a 20/1 shot, beating the 11/8 favourite and 15/8 second favourite. Well spotted, SLH! Still learning. The changes in price really confused me and I must admit I was really lucky cause I was thinking about Penny Park, Barclay Boy and Flirty Jill as well (none of them was placed). Races with so equal horses are probably too dangerous for this system. http://members.chello.cz/slh/mar03.htm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLH Posted March 4, 2006 Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 My selection: Newbury 4.20 (it's again a big race...) Champions Day @11 (Sportingbet) - while B365 cut the price from 12 to 9, SB has put it up from 10 to 11... Betfair: win/place 11/2,8 (we get 3,5 for place) Possibly: Arry Dash @17 (Sportingbet) - I missed 21 so I am waiting right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted March 4, 2006 Author Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 4.55 Newbury Mount Sandel (18/1 Bet365) 10 points EW. Each way system. An odds on favourite. We're getting 4.60 for the place, compared to a lay price of 3.90 on Betfair, and the Betfair is 20.00, just a little higher than we're getting. Other bookmakers are as short as 14/1, so I'll take the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted March 4, 2006 Author Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 My selection: Newbury 4.20 (it's again a big race...) Champions Day @11 (Sportingbet) - while B365 cut the price from 12 to 9, SB has put it up from 10 to 11... Betfair: win/place 11/2,8 (we get 3,5 for place) Possibly: Arry Dash @17 (Sportingbet) - I missed 21 so I am waiting right now. I think the place price on Champions Day must have lengthened since you looked. Arry Dash looks possible, but with the Betfair win price a bit higher than the 16/1 available and down to 16 runners, I'll also wait. But there's one in that race that I'll go for: 4.20 Newbury Vengeance (20/1 Stan James) 10 points EW. Large handicap system. We're getting 6.00 for the place, compared to a lay price of 4.30 on Betfair. The Betfair win price is the same as we're getting. The fact that another non-runner would cut it down to 15 runners and only 3 places is a bit of a concern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLH Posted March 4, 2006 Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Mount Sandel and Vengeance were right horses in wrong races... What happened in the last race? Seven non-runners! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted March 5, 2006 Author Share Posted March 5, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Both were losers, so 40 points lost. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 1391.17 Total Staked: 1880 W/P/L: 13/29/52 Profit/Loss: +391.17 (Win +182.33, Place +208.84) Yield: +20.81% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted March 5, 2006 Author Share Posted March 5, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 3.15 Leopardstone Mister Buttons (16/1 Totesport) 10 points EW. Each way system. An odds on favourite. We're getting 4.20 for the place, compared to a lay price of 3.25 on Betfair. The Betfair win price is the same as we're getting. No other bookmaker is offering more than 14/1, so I'll take the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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