slapdash Posted January 19, 2006 Author Share Posted January 19, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 2.20 Ludlow Business Traveller (50/1 Totesport/Ladbrokes) 10 points EW. Large handicap early price system. Lay place price on Betfair is 10.00, compared to the 13.50 we;re getting, and the win price on Betfair is 50.00, a touch less than we're getting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 19, 2006 Author Share Posted January 19, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 3.20 Ludlow Valleymore (12/1 Ladbrokes) 10 points EW. Large handicap early price system. Lay place price on Betfair is 3.15, compared to the 4.00 we're getting, and the win price on Betfair is the same as we're getting. The possibility of a non-runner is a bit as a concern, as there are 16 runners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 19, 2006 Author Share Posted January 19, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 3.20 Ludlow Irish Grouse (14/1 UKBetting) 10 points EW. Large handicap early price system. Lay place price on Betfair is 3.40, compared to the 4.50 we're getting, and the win price on Betfair is a touch less than we're getting, at 14.50. The possibility of a non-runner is a bit as a concern, as there are 16 runners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LebaBezMotike Posted January 19, 2006 Share Posted January 19, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 I followed your tips so !Good luck! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 19, 2006 Author Share Posted January 19, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Topkat was placed at 11/2, but the other four lost, so that's a loss of 79 points. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 1432.90 Total Staked: 680 W/P/L: 8/8/18 Profit/Loss: +432.90 (Win +319.00, Place +113.90) Yield: +63.66% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LebaBezMotike Posted January 19, 2006 Share Posted January 19, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 :wall:wall:wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 20, 2006 Author Share Posted January 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 12.50 Musselburgh Reem Two (6/1 Betfred) 10 points EW. Each way system. Odds on favourite. We're getting 2.20 for the place, compared to a lay price of 1.72 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price of 5.80 is also a touch less than we're getting. I'll take the price as other bookies and Betfair are all shorter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 20, 2006 Author Share Posted January 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 12.50 Musselburgh Fortuna Favente (8/1 >Betfred) 10 points EW. Each way system. Odds on favourite. We're getting 2.60 for the place, compared to a lay price of 1.95 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price of 8.80 is also a touch less than we're getting. I'll take the price as other bookies and Betfair are all shorter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 20, 2006 Author Share Posted January 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 1.20 Musselburgh Comical Errors (SP) 10 points EW. Each way system. Odds on favourite. An early price of 4/1 is available, giving a place price of 1.80, compared to a lay price of 1.52 on Betfair. This is enough to compensate for the Betfair win price being a bit bigger at 5.80. I'll take SP as several bookies have the 4/1, and the win price seems to be drifting on Betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 20, 2006 Author Share Posted January 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 1.20 Musselburgh Parsley's Return (SP) 10 points EW. Each way system. Odds on favourite. An early price of 10/1 is available, giving a place price of 3.00, compared to a lay price of 2.42 on Betfair. This is enough to compensate for the Betfair win price being a bit bigger at 12.00. I'll take SP as the other horses often seem to drift on course in races like this with two clear market leaders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepBlueDevilFish Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Betfred have selected the 1:20 as a "Best Odds Guaranteed" race for anyone following these selections at SP. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 20, 2006 Author Share Posted January 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 3.00 Musselburgh Orang Outan (20/1 Sporting Odds) 10 points EW. Each way system. Odds on favourite. We're getting a place price of 5.00, compared to a lay price of 3.05 on Betfair, which is enough to compensate for the Betfair win price being 27.00. I'll take the price as no other bookie is going longer than 16/1. They have just pushed it out to 33/1 I'll take the price as all other bookmakers are 16/1 or shorter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 20, 2006 Author Share Posted January 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Sorry, ignore the "They have just pushed it out to 33/1" in that ... bad editing and misreading of Sporting Odds prices. The price is 20/1 and that's what I'm taking. That's all for today. Double Vodka in the 3.00 was also almost a selection: the place price on Betfair looks good, but the win price of 7.20 compared to a best early price of 9/2 is just too big a difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 20, 2006 Author Share Posted January 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 The price on Reem Two has gone at Betfred. I would still make it a selection, but at SP. The price on Orang Outan has gone at Sporting Odds, but now Totesport have 20/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 20, 2006 Author Share Posted January 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 That's all for today. Double Vodka in the 3.00 was also almost a selection: the place price on Betfair looks good, but the win price of 7.20 compared to a best early price of 9/2 is just too big a difference. The Betfair prices shortened, but so did the early prices. I won't count this as an official selection whatever happens, but if I can get 9/2 before the race, then I'll take it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 20, 2006 Author Share Posted January 20, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Reem Two won, Parsley's Return and Orang Outan were placed, and the other two were unplaced. I did get 9/2 on Double Vodka, and he gave me a run for my money, but came second for a small loss. That makes a 72 point profit on the "official" selections. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 1504.90 Total Staked: 780 W/P/L: 9/10/20 Profit/Loss: +504.90 (Win +339.00, Place +165.90) Yield: +64.73% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 21, 2006 Author Share Posted January 21, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 4.15 Wincanton Storm of Applause (SP) 10 points EW. Each way system. Odds on favourite. We'd get a place price of 2.60 at the best early price of 8/1, compared to a lay price of 1.90 on Betfair. The Betfair win price is a bit higher at 9.80, but that's close enough given the difference in place prices. It's more or less a toss up whether to take SP or the early price at SportingOdds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 21, 2006 Author Share Posted January 21, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 1.25 Wolverhampton Coastal Breeze (8/1 Stan James) 10 points EW. Each way system. Odds on favourite. We're geting a place price of 2.60, compared to a lay price of 2.26 on Betfair. The Betfair win price is a bit higher at 9.40, but that's close enough given the difference in place prices. The price seems to be shortening, so I'll take the early price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 21, 2006 Author Share Posted January 21, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 The 8/1 on Coastal Breeze has gone at Stan James, but Paddy Power and William Hill still have that price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 21, 2006 Share Posted January 21, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 1.25 Wolverhampton - I took 7-1 on bet365 the odds on betfair are now 2.2 - :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 21, 2006 Author Share Posted January 21, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Sorry about Coastal Breeze, Kanga. Why is it that whenever anybody says they're on one of my selections, it decides to hang around at the back of the field, out of sight of the TV cameras? Maybe if anybody backs any of these in the future they should keep quiet about it until after the race. :) Still, Storm of Applause was placed at 10/1, which restricts the losses to 10 points. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 1494.90 Total Staked: 820 W/P/L: 9/11/21 Profit/Loss: +494.90 (Win +319.00, Place +175.90) Yield: +60.35% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted January 21, 2006 Share Posted January 21, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Great Strategy - Good Selection - Horse just didn't listen :loon I've noticed a strike rate of around 50% so far ( I know it's early days) But in the past has this been about average ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 21, 2006 Author Share Posted January 21, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Just looked at my strike rate on sports-punter.com from last year. It's 33.70%. However, that doesn't include horses at low prices that were placed, but made a loss because the price was too low for the place return to cover the win stake, and during the flat season I had a lot more horses at longer prices in large handicaps, which of course had a lower strike rate. 50% placed outside the flat season is probably about what I managed last year, but the strike rate for winners has been a lot higher so far this year. That's just lucky, and please don't expect it to last! My yield so far this year is about 60%. By the end of the year it will be nothing like that. I'd be happy with 15%, and not too disappointed with 10%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highlander61 Posted January 21, 2006 Share Posted January 21, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Hi Slapdash. Having read through this thread I've decided to give your system a go. Started yesterday with the race after the 9/2 winner :wall . You say that the win part showed a loss last season. Have you considered/researched laying the win part of the bet on Betfair? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted January 21, 2006 Share Posted January 21, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Wouldn't one 14/1 lay that won wipe out the 13 winning lays before it? Sod that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 21, 2006 Author Share Posted January 21, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Hi Slapdash. Having read through this thread I've decided to give your system a go. Started yesterday with the race after the 9/2 winner :wall . You say that the win part showed a loss last season. Have you considered/researched laying the win part of the bet on Betfair? I'm not saying that wouldn't work. However ... With the horses from the "each way system" the Betfair win price is more often than not higher than the bookies' prices, so laying them on Betfair would guarantee a loss on the win half of the bet. It may still lead to a smaller loss, but I think it would be marginal. With the horses from the "large handicap system", the Betfair price is usually shorter, and this is where your idea is most likely to work. But there's a practical difficulty that the horses from this system are usually at quite long prices, and the amounts available to lay on Betfair at reasonable prices can be quite low and if you do lay them then you need to keep quite a lot in your Betfair account to cover the possibility of a win, especially if you have several of them at once. E.g., if you bet £X each-way on a 50/1 shot, then to lay the win half on Betfair, you need to have £50X in your Betfair account. Having said this, I have done this occasionally: usually when the Betfair price is a lot lower and usually only for a proportion of my stake. FleetFanatic: Yes, but if I understood Highlander, he was considering backing the horse each-way at a bookie and laying the win part of the bet on Betfair. So if the lay price and bookie's price were similar, there would be little net gain or loss on the win half of the bet, and you'd just have the place haf of the bet left which, we hope, would be profitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highlander61 Posted January 21, 2006 Share Posted January 21, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Yep, that's exactly what I meant Slapdash. I should have said I was referring to the "each way system". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 23, 2006 Author Share Posted January 23, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 1.10 Ayr Van Cleef (SP) 10 points EW. Each way system. A long odds on favourite. We'd be getting 2.60 for the place at the best early price of 8/1, compared to a lay price of 1.86 on Betfair. The Betfair win price of 10.50 is bigger than I'd like, but with such a large discrepancy in the place prices I'll accept that. More or less a guess whether or not to take the early price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 23, 2006 Author Share Posted January 23, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 One loser today, for a loss of 20 points. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 1474.90 Total Staked: 840 W/P/L: 9/11/22 Profit/Loss: +474.90 (Win +309.00, Place +165.90) Yield: +56.54% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted January 24, 2006 Author Share Posted January 24, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 1.40 Sedgefield Ornella Speed (9/1 Betfred) 10 points EW. Each way system. Only seven runners, but a long odds-on favourite, and we're getting 3.25 for the place, compared to a lay price on Betfair of 2.84. The win price on Betfair is 10.5, a little higher than we're getting. Other bookies go 8/1 at best, so I'll take Betfred's 9/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.