jtw1 Posted October 22, 2006 Author Share Posted October 22, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results SETUBAL game currently 1-2 :cry 1-1 in CZECH match with 5 mins to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted October 22, 2006 Author Share Posted October 22, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results 3 goals in both afternoon games :( 1-0 at h-t SP.LISBON Now for apology time . I fell for that old enemy yesterday - GREED .By posting 3 games and not the ONE MOST LIKELY TOO as i usually do , i lost the discipline needed to make a profit in this game. Of course this done with hindsight and i suppose if the 2 games played had ended UNDER i would sitting here one right smug git , but that does not alter the fact that i lost the plot and got greedy. I'm pretty sure this happpened last season with the same outcome. IT WON'T RE-OCCUR - 1 GAME PER DAY FROM NOW ON. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted October 22, 2006 Author Share Posted October 22, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results 1-1 f-t Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted October 26, 2006 Author Share Posted October 26, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results FRIDAY ------ Time to trust the FRENCH i beleive The 2nd Div is now up to 56% UNDERS and i think i've found one thats worth investing in. CAEN v AJACCIO has ended 1-1,1-1,2-0,1-1,2-2 over previous meetings in this fixture. CAEN have had 5 out of 6 homes end UNDER [only 6/12 h/a] AJACCIO have had 5 out of 5 aways end UNDER [8/12 h/a] Stake 20pts @ 1.57. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted October 27, 2006 Author Share Posted October 27, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results What can i say 4-0 !!!!!!!!!! staring bank = 100pts current bank = 170.36pts SERIE B tomorrow and ALBINOLEFFE v NAPOLI is the choice to get back on tracks and with UNDERS standing at a VERY IMPRESSIVE 72% in Serie B , you can see why i've chosen this game even though they've only played each other twice with scores of 1-0+0-0 ALBINOLEFFE have had 3 out of 3 homes finish 0-0 [6/8 unders h/a] NAPOLI have had 3 out of 4 aways end UNDER [6/8 H/A] Stake 20pts on UNDER 2.5 goals @ 1.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted October 28, 2006 Author Share Posted October 28, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results ALBINOLEFFE 1-0 :nana RETURNS = 30PTS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Nader Posted October 29, 2006 Share Posted October 29, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results Nicely done jtw Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted October 29, 2006 Author Share Posted October 29, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results Cheers DARTH :ok With 59% UNDERS in Serie A todays selection is CAGLIARI v SAMPDORIA ,this is a fixture that has ended 1-1,0-2,1-0,0-0 2-0 in the last 5 meetings. CAGLIARI have had 3 out of 4 homes end UNDER [5/8 H/A] SAMPDORIA have had 2 out of 3 aways end UNDER [4/8 H/A] STAKE 30PTS @ 1.65 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted October 29, 2006 Author Share Posted October 29, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results CAGLIARI 1-0 . RETURNS = 49.50PTS ENGLISH PREMIERSHIP ------------------- Monday night see's MAN CITY v MIDDLEBORO which has a previous record of 0-1,2-0,1-1,0-0,0-1,1-1,0-1. MAN CITY have had 4 out of 4 homes end UNDER , [6/9 H/A] M'BORO have had 2 out of 4 aways end UNDER , [4/9 H/A] STAKE 49.50pts @ 1.61 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted October 30, 2006 Author Share Posted October 30, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results 1-0 F-T RETURNS = 79.70PTS BANK IT !! STARTING BANK = 100PTS CURRENT BANK = 230.06PTS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 2, 2006 Author Share Posted November 2, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results Got to go to ITALY and SERIE B on FRIDAY night. MODENA v PIACENZA has previous results of - 1-0,1-0,1-0. MODENA have had 4 out of 4 homes end UNDER 2.5 [8/9 h/a] PIACENZA have had 4 out of 4 aways end UNDER [7/9 h/a] STAKE 20PTS @ 1.53. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 3, 2006 Author Share Posted November 3, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results 1-2 F-T Disappointing start to the weekend i'm afraid But what about the FRENCH 2nd DIV !! ALL UNDERS Maybe the novelty of the bonus for goals scheme has worn off as we get further into the season and it's only winning or losing that matters ? FULHAM v EVERTON has ended 2-0,2-0,2-1,2-0,1-0 in previous meetings at Craven Cottage. FULHAM have had 4 out of 5 homes end UNDER [6/10 h/a] EVERTON have had 4 out of 5 aways end UNDER [ 6/10 H/A] STAKE 20PTS @ 1.66 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XAN Posted November 3, 2006 Share Posted November 3, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results He,good strategy. By the way I used it in France championship last year. But now they score too much to win with unders:\ Ill follow your tips, mate. GL:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 4, 2006 Author Share Posted November 4, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results 1-0 f-t RETURNS = 33.20PTS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 4, 2006 Author Share Posted November 4, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results It's off to GREECE tomorrow and what looks like a promising game in XANTHI v IONIKOS This fixture has ended 0-1,1-0,0-0,2-0,2-0 and 1-1 in previous seasons. XANTHI have had 3 homes from 3 end UNDER [7 /8 h/a] IONIKOS have had 4 out of 4 aways end UNDER [6/8 h/a] STAKE 33.20PTS @ 1.6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 5, 2006 Author Share Posted November 5, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results XANTHI 2-0 RETURNS = 53.12PTS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 10, 2006 Author Share Posted November 10, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results So to Saturday's pick and it's MAN CITY v NEWCASTLE Previous results = 0-1,-,1-0,1-0,1-1,3-0. MAN CITY have had 5 out of 5 homes end UNDER [8 OUT OF 11 H/A]. NEWCASTLE have had 5 out of 5 aways end UNDER [8 OUT OF 11 H/A]. STAKE 50PTS @ 1.61 STAKE 2PTS on 2-1 home win @ 9.0 STAKE 1.12PTS on 2-2 @ 17.0 with B,Square. If we're lucky to collect with the main bet then we'll bank it. If, however, we lose or collect on one of the 'insurance 'bets comes in then we'll have 20pts on the SERIE B game between VERONA v TRIESTINA Previous results = 1-0,0-1,0-0,0-2. VERONA have had 5 homes out of 5 end UNDER [10/10 H/A] TRIESTINA have had 4 aways out of 5 end UNDER [8/10 H/A] ODDS = 1.47 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 11, 2006 Author Share Posted November 11, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results MAN CITY 0-0 Returns = 80.50pts STARTING BANK = 100PTS CURRENT BANK = 270.56PTS 20PTS on VERONA , Result - 0-1 Returns = 29.40pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 12, 2006 Author Share Posted November 12, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results Morning all ,Well i've had a good look at he fixtures for today and using my selection process there's not too many to choose from , but i've eventually settled for XANTHI v ATROMITOS over in the GREEK 1st Div. Previous results - 2-1,2-0,1-0. XANTHI have had 4 out of 4 homes end UNDER [8/9 H/A] ATROMITOS have had 2 out of 4 aways end UNDER [4/9 h/a] Not ,i admit, stats to really give a confident bet but i honestly can't find any better. It's really the XANTHI stats that clinch it so it's fingers crossed time. STAKE 29.40PTS @ 1.57 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 12, 2006 Author Share Posted November 12, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results XANTHI 1-0 RETURNS = 46.16 PTS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yomica Posted November 12, 2006 Share Posted November 12, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results I played last couple years almost only under/over but without your discipline and I like your way and your selection. Excellent work! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 12, 2006 Author Share Posted November 12, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results CHEERS yomica :ok MONDAY ------ Our good friends in SERIE B have provided us with the next selection. BARI v NAPOLI Previous meetings - 1-1,2-0,0-1,0-1,0-1,0-0 since 1995. BARI have had 5 out of 5 homes end UNDER [8 /10 h/a]. NAPOLI have had 4 out of 5 aways end UNDER [8/10 HA/] STAKE 46.16PTS @ 1.53 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squelch Posted November 13, 2006 Share Posted November 13, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results Agree with this one. Hopefully wont put the kiss of death on it! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 13, 2006 Author Share Posted November 13, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results BARI 0-1 STARTING BANK = 100 pts CURRENT BANK = 321.18 pts BANK TREBLED :drums Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ls1 Posted November 14, 2006 Share Posted November 14, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results Well Done JTW. Great work. I like your discipline,its so easy to get carried away and greedy as i know to my cost. Will follow with interest. All the best. Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted November 14, 2006 Share Posted November 14, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results :clap Excellent :clap Just a quick question have you ever calculated the results using different staking plans ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 14, 2006 Author Share Posted November 14, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results No ,to be honest mate. With the odds being so short and trying to get a decent return i just stuck with the progressive staking method. If you can see a way to improve the returns please feel free to post :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted November 15, 2006 Share Posted November 15, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results Thanks - Something interesting I've noticed :- (>1.50) 40 selections = 25 winners & 15 losers 62.5% (1.50) 16 selections = 11 winners & 5 losers 68.75% ( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted November 16, 2006 Share Posted November 16, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results I've run 3 staking methods over all the 82 posted selections. 1) Flat £20 stake = profit of £ 92.20 2) Comparible Fixed return = £ 107.70 3) Rolling 5% percentile of 1000 point bank = £ 87.64 Whereas your rolling treble/quad has doubled even these returns :ok I'm just trying to get my head around an equation to run similar through excel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted November 16, 2006 Share Posted November 16, 2006 Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results Following on with this rolling stake Doubles = £ 80.73 Trebles = £ 122.45 Quads = £ 38.17 I was stumped by the difference in banks but a superb 2-1 cover allowed for a nice banking that isn't included in these. 8 of the 25 losers were 2-1 home victories. 4 of the 25 were 2-2 draws 3 were 1-2 away wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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