Racing Chat - Wednesday 27th December

[The Brigadier]

Chepstow 1.05

Only four have declared for this 2M 3 1/2F class 2 handicap chase with the Sam Thomas trained Good Risk At All a warm favourite now dropping back to a trip that suits him better having possibly failed to stay over three miles at Cheltenham last time. He should run well but at the prices the consistent top weight First Flow may be the value play. He finished a 4L runner up to Boothill at Ascot last time out, form which has been boosted several times since and Kim Bailey’s eleven year old will appreciate any more rain that falls at the Welsh track.

 

FIRST FLOW 1 point win @ 9/4 William Hill

 

Kempton 1.20

A nine runner introductory juvenile hurdle which features the well touted Nicky Henderson trained Sir Gino who is already a top priced 12/1 for the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham next March. He impressed when winning a listed race on his racecourse debut for his French trainer at Auteuil last April and has subsequently been bought privately by the Donnelly’s and put into training over here with Nicky Henderson. He’s had a wind operation since but the opposition today hardly looks that exacting and he can make a winning British debut at a meeting where his trainer does so well at.

 

SIR GINO, NICKLE BACK (1.55 Kempton) & BURDETT ROAD (2.10 Chepstow) 2 points win treble 8/15, 4/5 & 4/9 Bet Victor

 

Chepstow 1.40

A class 2 2M 7F 131 yard handicap hurdle is up next with a field of eight where I feel there is an excellent each way bet to get stuck into. Many of these can be crabbed for one reason or another but the one who appeals is the Tim Vaughan trained Bells Of Peterboro. He showed up nicely in two handicap chases on his first two starts this season over fences but was disappointing when reverting to hurdles last time but its best to forgive him that run now in a first time visor as he has such a great record in this very race and it may well be that he has been trained for this race. He ran out a very easy 22L winner of this race two years off of a handicap mark 3lb higher than todays ‘s as well as finishing a creditable third in this contest a year ago. He’s well worth chancing under Alan Johns who knows him so well.

 

BELLS OF PETERBORO 1 point each way @ 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 123

 

Kempton 1.55

A small field of just four line up for the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase run over two miles. The one to beat is the Sarah Humphrey trained Nickle Back who followed up two emphatic chase victories at Warwick and Stratford from the front by running a highly creditable 6 1/2L second to the smart Hermes Allen in a Grade 2 Novices’ Chase at Newbury at the beginning of the month. He’s an exuberant front runner who will more than likely set out in front and hopefully run the race out of his three rivals, the best of which may well be Master Chewy.

 

Chepstow 2.10

The 2M grade 2 Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle has only attracted six runners with a very warm favourite in James Owen’s unbeaten juvenile hurdler Burdett Road. He has to shoulder a 5lb penalty for his impressive wins at Huntingdon and in grade 2 company at Cheltenham under today’s rider Harry Cobden. He should win this the with utmost of ease all be it at prohibitive odds.

 

Kempton 2.30

The 2M Desert Orchid Chase has Grade 2 status and for the first time this year is a limited handicap which has attracted six runners. Harry Fry’s Boothill arrives in top form chasing a hat trick of two mile handicap chase wins following a brace of wins at Ascot this season. He may have been a bit fortunate to oblige last time as Saint Segal was a length ahead when tumbling at the last. Only 3lb higher in the weights now he appeals as the one to beat although Joe Tizzard’s Elixir De Nutz, who is also chasing a hat trick, and Nube Negra, who will appreciate the drying ground look dangers.

 

BOOTHILL 1 point win @ 2/1 BetVictor

 

Chepstow 2.50

The 2023 renewal of the 3M 6 1/F Coral Welsh Grand National has attracted a maximum field of twenty dye in the wool stayers. Many have claims including the top weight Iwilldoit who won the race two years ago off of bottom weight but is now 13lb higher in the weights. The trial winner Nassalam is another with a shout although he has to prove his stamina. The race looks wide open and I’ll take a rank outsider to run well at a massive price with extra places. David Pipe’s Only The Bold looked a stayer going places last year when bolting up at Bangor and Hereford but has flopped three times since, twice this year back over hurdles so its impossible to be too confident about his chances but if he can get himself back to the form he showed last year he can give his trainer David Pipe his first win in a race that his father Martin did so well in.

 

ONLY THE BOLD 1 point each way @ 33/1 William Hill 1/5th 123456

 

Kempton 3.09

A valuable 3M class 2 Handicap Chase is up next with eight going to post. The form horse is arguably the top weight Tea Clipper who should go well here following two decent efforts in 3M handicap chases this winter when runner up at Chepstow and Ascot. He is only a pound higher than his latest run and there appears little depth to this contest. The bottom weight Strictlyadancer looks interesting but his trainer Christian Williams is badly out of sorts at present and can’t be fancied until he’s shows some improvement in his form.

 

TEA CLIPPER 1 point win @ 9/4 bet365

 

 

[richard-westwood]

3.00 leopard Paddy power chase 

Ontheropes  8.7 33/1 

Fakir dalene.  8.6 20/1 

Amirite.    8.4 12/1 

These three are a bit clear of rest so with limited race interests due to field sizes I'll try 3pt Ew all 3 ....and forecasts all 3 

[White Feather]

Blade Runner 40/1 Bet 365 - 14:50 Chepstow - 6 places - each way

James Du Berlais 33/1 Bet 365 - 15:00 Leopardstown - 6 places - each way

Each way double

[Tedthewolf]

3.oo Leop- 1pt e/w DOIL KER 40/1 6places- In poor form but 2nd in this year just beaten less weight this time around and 40/1 6 places will do for me.

From welsh nation thread....

1pt e/w WAYFINDER 25/1 6places

1pt e/w DIDERO VALLIS 66/1 6places

4pts invested

 

Total 6pts invested

Edited December 27, 2023 by Tedthewolf

[black rabbit]

46 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

3.oo Leop- 1pt e/w DOI KOIR 40/1 6places- In poor form but 2nd in this year just beaten less weight this time around and 40/1 6 places will do for me.

From welsh nation thread....

1pt e/w WAYFINDER 25/1 6places

1pt e/w DIDERO VALLIS 66/1 6places

4pts invested

 

Total 6pts invested

love the prices ted "just my cup of tea" 😀

[Sporting Sam]

Welsh national 1450

Chepstow

Super survivor

win

Placed each run so far.

 

laid out for this. Only seen twice since landing the novice chase on this card last year by five lengths.
Laying out horses mean you are relying on lots to fall into place on the day as race fitness has to be attained another way. But form has been well franked at both Cheltenham and Aintree in the national and with jockey of the moment Gavin Sheehan on board again anything can happen here. 
Sean Bowen rode him recently and everything seems in place for a bold bid here. Fitness and stamina may be an issue but Chepstow only ever comes up soft or heavy and connections have taken all precautions save racing him regularly. Carries little weight as a consequence and as a seven year old looks unexposed.

[MCLARKE]

5yo selections

[Brahmin]

Good Afternoon all, we stopped yday when Daily Nap / main bet won, so took our 100pt+ profit...............

Betfair jockey special, N de Bonville rides 2 winners Kempton @ 4/1.....😱 Tweed Skirt wins, he not ride it as injured after 1st winner soooo R Dunne does and cost us £40 profit!

 

Leop 12.05        Mordor   22/1 EW      3rd                  Evenings Empire     33/1  EW     

Chep 12.30        Imperial Saint   3/1                            Ito Ditto      4/1      WON

Leop 12.35         Ho my Lord    5/1                               Firm Footings   8/1 EW     2nd       

Chep 1.05           First Flow  3/1 

Leop 13.10         DinoBlue    15/8    WON  9/4

Chep 13.40         Tanganyika    16/5                              Classic Concorde       13/2  EW    WON  7/1

Chep 14.50         Super Survivor   13/2 EW           Autonomous Cloud  11/2  EW           Chambard  11/1  EW        Truckers Lodge  12/1 EW              6 places

Leop 15.00         Jody Ted  13/2 EW        Watch house Cross   20/1 EW             Idas Boy     30/1 EW             Embittered  50/1 EW                        6 places

 

 3 WINS 🏆 🏆 🏆 & 2 EW places  👍....BUT profit wiped out by the 2 big races, Welsh National / Paddy power chase & N de bonville miss 2nd winner 😱

Edited December 27, 2023 by Brahmin

[Sporting Sam]

Punchestown 1235

MARINE NATIONALE

to win by 3 lengths or more @ 5/6

last seen winning the supreme novices easily. This drop in class even though he’s yet to jump the fences could go well for this horse here. Either way it’s the first step towards the arkle in march.

[tonythepaint]

Welsh National

Chambard

The Big Breakaway

The Galloping Bear

Singles, combination exacta and trifecta 

3 times £1 singles

12 times 50p combination bets

Edited December 27, 2023 by tonythepaint
Added stake

[Sporting Sam]

Punchestown 1310

Captain Guinness

win

thus race has gone Mullins / de Bromhead the four last years and Mullins runs nearly all the field to break the cycle this year.

Previous Years
2022 Blue Lord 7 11-12 D A Jacob 2/1 (W P Mullins) 
2021 Envoi Allen 7 12-0 Rachael Blackmore 2/5Fav (Henry De Bromhead) 
2020 Chacun Pour Soi 8 12-0 P Townend 4/7Fav (W P Mullins) 
2019 A Plus Tard 5 11-12 Rachael Blackmore 4/1 (Henry De Bromhead) 

[Sporting Sam]

Limerick 1402

No time to wait

win

Gordon Elliot and Sam Ewing are not a match made in heaven. This Sam takes all the falls literally for the yard with no steering jobs,  his win to run ratio does not tally with his record racing for other yards.

a small covering win bet on

SA MSJESTE

Just in case…

Edited December 27, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

Leopardstown 1420

Call Me Lyreen

each way

fortunedeafottunata

win

[Sporting Sam]

Limerick 1437

from the ashes

each way

farmix

win

off for over a thousand days since winning at punchestown two Februarys ago. From the ashes has a rating a stone lower than his chase mark.

from the ashes trainer renowned for pulling off stunts like leaving his horses unattended, breaking down on the motorway and sending his companion horses in different vehicles and having a back up vehicle to take his horses home in case of breakdown ready for every eventuality.

Edited December 27, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Tedthewolf]

Will add THE BIG BREAKWAY in the welsh National now that it has drifted to 18/1 bog 6places 1PT e/w

[White Feather]

21 hours ago, White Feather said:

Blade Runner 40/1 Bet 365 - 14:50 Chepstow - 6 places - each way

James Du Berlais 33/1 Bet 365 - 15:00 Leopardstown - 6 places - each way

Each way double

James Du Berlais went off 12/1, ran a gallant race. Blade Runner was amongst the 8 horses that was still running coming to the 5th last fench but unfortunately PU.

Anyway still in profit 👍

 

 

[Sporting Sam]

 

Wolverhampton 5pm
Red walls
Win
escapes a penalty for win last week at Southwell and should go very close especially as unpenalised and claimer removes half a stone. So the weight advantage goes into double figures. problem is, in 72 runs this horse has yet to win back to back. Has been 2nd back to back twice and won’t get a better chance here.

Monitola
Each way
Ex Ger Lyons and raced over a variety of trips in Ireland 🇮🇪. Lowest career mark here and good jockey on board. Still a maiden but remains versatile and unexposed.
Draw data horse
Coast
Each way
Ran a stunner to make all recently and hovering in the right place since.  No suprise if went well from this draw.

[Sporting Sam]

Wolverhampton 5:30

kitbag

win

 

[Sporting Sam]

Wolves 1930

ICE SHADOW

Win

Boujee Gold

each way

big price for lto winner.

[Sporting Sam]

Wolverhampton 2000

Benoit De La Sayette

rides for alan king

outrun

win

 

each way

ex Johnny murtagh 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

Wolverhampton 2030

rhubarb

eachvway

Gustav Graves

win

very low win to run rate even when knocking at the door.

but close second to Rhubarb latest gives hope as does booking of Joanna Mason. Last two book of rides has produced a winner. Only ride tonight. Has ridden horse three times at Beverley hopefully with today in mind.

Rhubarb

each way

Gina Mangan’s claim takes the penalty down to just two pounds here and it may be that these two horse being the best form into the race.

Edited December 27, 2023 by Sporting Sam

[Sporting Sam]

Marine Nationale Made a very confident statement on chase debut and looks an arkle  horse. Unbackabke at odds on he returned 5/6 with a winning distance bet of three or more lengths. He duly ran away by 8.5 lengths and had been schooled well. There looks to be more to come before Cheltenham.

Sa majeste came to Willie Mullins on the back of a decent hurdles win in France but flopped on debut. Given a second chance for JP Macmanus, the Mullins horse won in some style at a decent price.

Joanna Mason remains the best one trick jockey in the business, particularly when riding for Mick Easterby. She’d ridden Gustav Graves three times on the trot at Beverley  in the summer almost certainly with last night in mind. JOMO had just come off a Christmas stint where her last two day’s  work had produced winners. Coast & Rhubarb both ran well for their placed each way returns.

Edited December 28, 2023 by Sporting Sam