NFL Week 16 - Predictions

[harry_rag]

This lot takes us through to Boxing Day if we're not all too stuffed with Turkey and all the trimmings!

[harry_rag]

Nothing for me in the opening game.

[PercyP]

Week 15 Results

Week 15 started with a real bang with the raiders demolishing the Chargers 63-21. This fuelled hopes for another profitable week. But three of my teams succumbed to late come from behind defeats.

The Steelers jumped out to a 13-0 lead before allowing the Colts to score 30 unanswered points (13-30).

The Eagles led 17-10 going into the final quarter but failed to hold on losing 17-20 to the Seahawks and the Titans led 16-9 with seven minutes left but  managed to lose (16-19) to the Texans.

Picks 5 Won 1 Drew 0 Lost 4, Staked 30 points, Returned Nil points for a loss of 30.00 points.

ATS YTD record

Picks 75 = W38 D5 L32 – staked 450.00 points – returned 890.54 points resulting in a 2023 seasonal profit of +440.54 points

1. Raiders to win ATS -3.0 points @ 20/23 – THURSDAY NIGHT – Demolition job by the Raiders 63-21 = WON

The Raiders let me down last week failing to score against a Vikings defence ranked in the top 10. Against a Chargers defence ranked 29 out of 32, they should score plenty.

The Chargers have little to play for as their hopes of reaching the play-offs are limited. They are super reliant on Justin Herbert, so without him (out injured for the rest of the season) and against a strong Raiders defence I cannot see them keeping this competitive. This was not competitive and the Raiders did indeed score plenty.

2. Steelers to win Moneyline @ 21/20 – Colts run the ball against the Steelers winning 30-13 = LOST

The Steelers have lost their last two home games, however the money continues to come for the Steelers. Colts QB Gardener Minshew is regressing and will find no rest from the aggressive Steelers defence. Whilst the Colts cannot stop the run, so Harris & Warren will keep the Steelers on the front foot. The Steelers could not stop the Colts running game.

 3. Dallas to win Moneyline @ 23/20 – Poor performance from Dallas lost 31-10 = LOST

A win for the Bills against the Chiefs last week will see the public jumping on the Bills. Since week four, the Bills have only beaten one team by seven points or more. Their games are usually close affairs. The Cowboys rank first in the NFL in scoring. They are also yielding the fourth-fewest points in the NFL and beating their opponents by an average of more than two touchdowns. A win for Dallas is needed as they and the Eagles fight for first place in the NFC East. Was it too cold for Dallas?

4. Titans to win ATS -2.5 points @ 5/6 – Titans lose in Overtime 16-19 = LOST

The Titans pulled off a major shock beating Miami last week. However this selection is more about the Titans home form (4-2) against a Texans team fading as the season progresses. There are also doubts about CJ Stroud playing (right shoulder injury). C.J. Stroud didn't play, but the Texans were able to keep their playoff hopes alive, thanks to an impressive comeback win. 

 5. Eagles to win ATS -4.0 points @ 10/11 – Eagles hit by Flu losing 20-17 to the Seahawks = LOST

The Eagles will be desperate to win the NFC East. After games against the Chiefs (won), Bills (won), 49Ers (lost) and Cowboys (lost) this game against Seattle should be easier. Flu in the camp affected the Eagles performance.

[PercyP]

Week 16 Picks

With strange results often occurring in the last two weeks of the season, this will be my final selections for the 2023 NFL season. So I hope to go out in style.

For my first three selections, I am sticking with three teams I chose last week.

1. Eagles to win ATS -12.0 points @ 10/11

Flu in the Eagles camp last week meant the Eagles have now lost their last three games against the 49Ers, Cowboys and Seattle. Playing against a poor New York Giants team will allow the Eagles to put plenty of points on the board.

2. Dallas to win Moneyline @ 10/11

Last week I thought the Cowboys would be competitive with the Bills and wrote “The Cowboys rank first in the NFL in scoring. They are also yielding the fourth-fewest points in the NFL and beating their opponents by an average of more than two touchdowns. A win for Dallas is needed as they fight for first place in the NFC East”.

This still applies and with injuries to Miami’s offense I think Dallas can make up for last week’s poor performance.

3. Raiders to win ATS +10.0 points @ 10/11

The Chiefs have not looked “the super bowl” champions for much of this season. Their wide receivers are well off the pace. They only beat the Patriots last week by 10 and the Raiders are much better than the Patriots and are still trying to win matches. The Raider's confidence will be high following last week’s sizable win.

4. Jets to win ATS -3.0 points @ 10/11

Last week I took the Raiders to win following a shut out the previous week. They won scoring 63 points. A similar bet is available this week. The Jets could not score against a top five Miami defence, but they will score against a Washington defence ranked worst in the NFL.

5. Rams to win ATS -4.0 points @ 10/11 - THURSDAY NIGHT

The Rams offence is hot with Cooper Kupp receiving and Kyren Williams rushing giving Matthew Stafford plenty of options. The Saints recently beat the Giants and Panthers however prior to this their defence looked leaky allowing the Lions 33, the Falcons 24 and the Vikings 27 points. In a shoot-out I will take Stafford over Carr.

 

Bet:

10 x 1 point trebles

5 x 3 point 4 timers

5 point accumulator

30 points staked

All prices Bet365

[fd1972uk]

Going Rams tonight with a td for kamara and kupp, 888 mb offer. 23/4

[fd1972uk]

Any TD lot.

[harry_rag]

Mixon 5/4 and Boyd 11/4 the prices that appeal to me tonight; nothing in the "overnight" game.

[yossa6133]

I don't know anything about American football but I sometimes watch Mike Matusow's youtube show and he normally puts up his 2 best bets of the week. He seems to get a lot of winners so I thought I would follow them for a bit and see how I get on.

This week his best bet was the Vikings +3. I've taken them +2.5 @ 10/11.

[MinellaWorksop]

Here is my odds boosted bet builder of the week with Hills three legs to this one as follows:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers To Win

Baker Mayfield Over 1.50 Total Passing Touchdowns

Trevor Lawrence Under 253.50 Total Passing Yards

Odds boosted to 9.25

 

Interesting matchup this one, as Trevor Lawrence the Jaguars QB has been an injury doubt all week after having to pass a concussion test. This added to the fact that he has been carrying a high ankle sprain injury the last few weeks which has clearly affected the Jags form as they have lost their last three games in a row.

[harry_rag]

3 hours ago, MinellaWorksop said:

Here is my odds boosted bet builder of the week with Hills three legs to this one as follows:

Played mine in Arizona at Chicago. Moore and Conner TDs and Fields to throw for >1.5 passing TD at 12.25. On the two TD scorers at 6/4 and 7/5 respectively.

Done Hunt (Cleveland) at 39/20, Mostert (Miami) at evens and Sutton (Denver) at 6/4. Would've done Taylor (Indianapolis) if I could've got the even money available in one place.

Let's see if having more time to study due to the lack of "soccer" delivers any tangible benefit!

Probably find a bet with Lads to trigger a matched freebie.

 

[harry_rag]

28 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Would've done Taylor (Indianapolis) if I could've got the even money available in one place.

Walker (Seattle) at 5/4 falls into the same bracket, I can't get on at odds against though. Both with 365, have a fiver on the double as there's a sense of inevitability about them both scoring when free from the weight of my dosh!

[fd1972uk]

Another any td acca

Montgomery (lions)

Hall (jets)

Henry (titans)

White (tampa)

Etienne (jags)

 

Betting on falcons game, texans game and Dolphins game.

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

Probably find a bet with Lads to trigger a matched freebie.

Prescott & Tagovailoa both to throw for 3+ TD at 16/1 (double odds boost). Ambitious but it'll do!

Edited December 24, 2023 by harry_rag
3+ not 2+

[fd1972uk]

Need Robinson to score td in falcons game, had went 2 bets on it with Taylor 1 in 1st td, other on reverse 1st td.

Need hunt td for browns, had with njoku and 20 pts total. 

Cant see singletary and hunt tds coming off now. 

Need Henry to score a td instead of bloody throwing for one to keep my acca alive 

[MinellaWorksop]

1 hour ago, fd1972uk said:

Need Robinson to score td in falcons game, had went 2 bets on it with Taylor 1 in 1st td, other on reverse 1st td.

Need hunt td for browns, had with njoku and 20 pts total. 

Cant see singletary and hunt tds coming off now. 

Need Henry to score a td instead of bloody throwing for one to keep my acca alive 

Hunt and Henry score Touchdowns 👍 Top work indeed.

[fd1972uk]

Bummer thought that 1 liner for texans would have been singletary zone but not to be.

 

[yossa6133]

The Vikings QB kept throwing the ball to the Lions...I'm not an expert, but that seems sub optimal.

[fd1972uk]

Need cowboys 14 pts and Dolphins 20 pts, had Lamb 1st td, 9/1 via 888. Is a mb offer. Did have wh epic on hill and also bet on mostert, but they're away.

Will wait till after midnight and try another acca on next couple of days games too.

[fd1972uk]

Looks like Etienne is going to beat my acca, will get bet back but still. Jags look way off. Just noticed Ridley scored, was between him and Etienne too, lol.

Need a few tds dolphins game.

 

 

[Snoopdog]

Red Zone:

Call me an old fogey, but the loud heavy metal guitar they are imposing on top of Scot Hanson's voice is driving us nuts. I'm sure it never used to be this loud and unpleasant.

[fd1972uk]

Well got 888 up in dolphins game, bonus was dolphins winning and winning my bet at same time.

Took courtland Sutton for td and he gets injured and pulled 2nd qua, meh.

[fd1972uk]

Another acca attempt, lol

Also on chiefs, pacheco 1st td and also same with rice.

 

[MinellaWorksop]

5 hours ago, fd1972uk said:

Well got 888 up in dolphins game, bonus was dolphins winning and winning my bet at same time.

Took courtland Sutton for td and he gets injured and pulled 2nd qua, meh.

Not good for my Fantasy football squad either, as he was a good points earner for my ramshackle squad was young Courtland.

Got lucky and was pleasantly surprised with the bet builder win. I saw the Jags threw 268 passing yards but luckily Trevor Lawrence only threw for 211 of those yards before leaving the game injured. This time with a shoulder injury. He's not having a smooth time of it t'old Trev at the moment bless him. Nonetheless I will greatly take the luck, and hope you are all enjoying the festivities. I've certainly had my years worth supply of turkey compressed into one meal and now laid out watching that Kevin McCallister wreak havoc on those poor old Wet Bandits lol.

[fd1972uk]

Chiefs getting a bit of a pasting, need 20 pts and -4.5 chiefs, but looks a tall order. 

[fd1972uk]

Meh, acca beat too. Not sure why I stick with kelce, more chance of his brother scoring a td than him now.

Will wait till weekend now for next nfl bets.

[MinellaWorksop]

36 minutes ago, fd1972uk said:

Meh, acca beat too. Not sure why I stick with kelce, more chance of his brother scoring a td than him now.

Will wait till weekend now for next nfl bets.

Kelce not been the same player this season. Taylor Swift, although a very nice distraction, has definitely been a distraction to his game.

Fair play to the Raiders, under this new coach, have pulled out some impressive results for sure.

[harry_rag]

Hunt, Mostert and Conner makes for an ok-ish Christmas Eve; had the day off yesterday.

Taylor scored but Walker didn't so would've just broke even on the two bets where I couldn't get the prices.