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Racing chat-tues 3rd Oct


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Flat goes downhill now in Oct ..with many horses going over the top after a hard season so I draw a line and start the all weather season now .....

7.00 wolv 

Destined  8.5 14/1 

Surprise picture 8.0 13/2 

Chalk mountain 7.9 5/1 

Very interesting race to rate... surprise and chalk are well fancied but computer is screaming Ew value on destined at a very tasty 14/1. ...who am I to deny .......let's have a bash at a big prize .....10pt Ew 💪😁...cmon beauty !!

 

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4 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Flat goes downhill now in Oct ..with many horses going over the top after a hard season so I draw a line and start the all weather season now .....

7.00 wolv 

Destined  8.5 14/1 

Surprise picture 8.0 13/2 

Chalk mountain 7.9 5/1 

Very interesting race to rate... surprise and chalk are well fancied but computer is screaming Ew value on destined at a very tasty 14/1. ...who am I to deny .......let's have a bash at a big prize .....10pt Ew 💪😁...cmon beauty !!

 

Is it worth rating and adding in "how many runs the horse has had" less is more sort of thing? Might be worth just looking at it Rich paper trading even.

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27 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Is it worth rating and adding in "how many runs the horse has had" less is more sort of thing? Might be worth just looking at it Rich paper trading even.

Some horses can take more runs ....some all weather horses can run every 2 weeks and hold form quite well but the higher grade flat horses have tougher races so don't hold form past the point of the arc .....I've learnt by past mistake ..profits seem to tumble in Oct Nov because a lot of horses just won't run anywhere near their best .....some will of course ...probably the lighter raced ones as you say but unless a particular race grabs me it's time to start panning for gold in The all weather pit 

I'm looking forward to the all weather season though  this year...more so than normal ... ....I've upgraded the ratings for all weather so it should provide an lot of fun now ......I'm really hoping a few good wins are forthcoming 😂......

Like ...destined ..today ....even if only 1 in 6 go on to win ...if you get 14/1 each time your gonna be laffin in the long run ...it just ramps up the excitement and makes me wanna try harder 😀

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Ayr 1342

the defection of Chinese spirit throws a few plans up in the air now and class dropper in stall seven 

Tele Red

win

may feel the benefit. I was expecting to be extolling the virtues of another runner  but this one has collaborative form superiority by a long way over the two top course winners here. A five pound claim is the clincher and a last win over the trip was in the grade above.

 

Galway 1350

Les pour filles  @ evens

win

armed and fabulous 

each way

at the current prices these two are of interest.

gordon Elliott may have a horse here.

Jack Kennedy rides and this one was finishing to very good  effect in good company to take fifth in a grade one bumper at Liverpool in the spring.
With a comfortable staying on performance over a Willie Mullins horse at the Boxing Day festival and a point to point win, this horse is unbeaten over two miles and also unbeaten outside of class 1 company. Armed and fabulous makes most appeal of the Mullins horses and switches from Mags Mullins here.

olympic man the mount of Patrick Mullins who gets the pick of the rides, is  hugely respected, especially as the yard’s regime of training and nutrition brings about marked improvement in horses which few yards are able to replicate legally. He hasn’t lit up the world as yet but has to be the main danger given the riding arrangements.

Obviously with a point to point pedigree He’s going to be a good novice hurdler this year and clearly wants much further so needs every yard of the extra 160 available here before chasing beckons at the end of next year.

Edited by Sporting Sam
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Flash Bulb                                                           4 32 Ayr                    1/40th of a pt ew    66/1

Rock Melody                                                       3 22 Ayr                    1/40th of a pt win   8/1

Edited by black rabbit
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8 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Some horses can take more runs ....some all weather horses can run every 2 weeks and hold form quite well but the higher grade flat horses have tougher races so don't hold form past the point of the arc .....I've learnt by past mistake ..profits seem to tumble in Oct Nov because a lot of horses just won't run anywhere near their best .....some will of course ...probably the lighter raced ones as you say but unless a particular race grabs me it's time to start panning for gold in The all weather pit 

I'm looking forward to the all weather season though  this year...more so than normal ... ....I've upgraded the ratings for all weather so it should provide an lot of fun now ......I'm really hoping a few good wins are forthcoming 😂......

Like ...destined ..today ....even if only 1 in 6 go on to win ...if you get 14/1 each time your gonna be laffin in the long run ...it just ramps up the excitement and makes me wanna try harder 😀

I do agree with you and concur that my ratings also take a hit here on in but like you say don't dismiss all horses/races/meetings being selective can produce the odd nice butty. I think @MCLARKE is also looking forward to the AW, although the horses are of a lower standard they seem to be tough and reasonably consistent. and it gets us through the winter, look out for the Breeders cup and my favourite Meydan, year on year i make good money at Meydan starts December thru March so the horses are worth tracking. 😀

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1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

I do agree with you and concur that my ratings also take a hit here on in but like you say don't dismiss all horses/races/meetings being selective can produce the odd nice butty. I think @MCLARKE is also looking forward to the AW, although the horses are of a lower standard they seem to be tough and reasonably consistent. and it gets us through the winter, look out for the Breeders cup and my favourite Meydan, year on year i make good money at Meydan starts December thru March so the horses are worth tracking. 😀

Only thing I find at meydan is I don't have a set of decent standards and the form from there seems inflated and doesn't seem to translate to other courses etc ....it's something I've got to look into this season .......that's why I tend to avoid it currently but I agree it's a potential untapped goldmine as it's no diff from the other aw courses 

This season I'm trying to get a few pars together for our aw courses ...for eg I noticed at say wolv for example in some races a TS of 41 plus is usually required to win a class 5 .... in some races you might have 6 horses that have only achieved say 32 ....then 2 horses only that have ever gone 40 plus so already your off to a flyer .. and I know there's many more so that's my goal this season lol 😆

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les pour filles non runner

quote

Obviously with a point to point pedigree He’s going to be a good novice hurdler this year and clearly wants much further so needs every yard of the extra 160 available here before chasing beckons at the end of next year.”….

Typically main runner in Ireland has been pulled and left with a slashed 8/1 ticket ( armed and fabulous) which will barely pay without winning.

Sedgfield 2pm
That’s jet
Win
Ran well behind a subsequent next time out winner who lost that race in the stewards afterwards.
No great shakes on the flat but transformed over hurdles and brings good form from Ireland and the experience might just be enough on debut for Scottish yard. Other flat horses have more scope with more runs to come but this one has the hurdle runs on the cv already.

Edited by Sporting Sam
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20 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Only thing I find at meydan is I don't have a set of decent standards and the form from there seems inflated and doesn't seem to translate to other courses etc ....it's something I've got to look into this season .......that's why I tend to avoid it currently but I agree it's a potential untapped goldmine as it's no diff from the other aw courses 

This season I'm trying to get a few pars together for our aw courses ...for eg I noticed at say wolv for example in some races a TS of 41 plus is usually required to win a class 5 .... in some races you might have 6 horses that have only achieved say 32 ....then 2 horses only that have ever gone 40 plus so already your off to a flyer .. and I know there's many more so that's my goal this season lol 😆

If you need past results for Meydan Racing | Latest Results (dubairacingclub.com) says latest but you can go back years. good luck with that. 👏

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17 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Flat goes downhill now in Oct ..with many horses going over the top after a hard season so I draw a line and start the all weather season now .....

7.00 wolv 

Destined  8.5 14/1 

Surprise picture 8.0 13/2 

Chalk mountain 7.9 5/1 

Very interesting race to rate... surprise and chalk are well fancied but computer is screaming Ew value on destined at a very tasty 14/1. ...who am I to deny .......let's have a bash at a big prize .....10pt Ew 💪😁...cmon beauty !!

 

As low as 8/1 with pp....maybe we will get a run ...😃

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Ayr 1522

draw data horse

Abduction

win

 Abduction  Has a record of 3-4 over C&D, including a win in this contest last year carries six pounds more this time and could be why his jockey is on the other runner.

Rock Melody

win

impossible to second guess this yard. Lasts year’s winner won this from stall 10 and again has the outside draw.
After two ‘anomalies’ in the five year draw data the adjusted stall taking that into account is stall 7. There are only seven runners and Paul mulhrenan jumps across to ride  Rock melody in stall 1. the traverse stall here to Abduction. Goldies runners have faced stiff opposition here and this is going to be tough. In form Richard Fahey has to be feared.

Edited by Sporting Sam
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Ayr 1557

draw data 

Burning the bails

win

Kracken power

each way

Goes over seven for yard for first time.

not disgraced for Ian Jardine in a group race over this trip at goodwood.

last win under this jockey, who he doesn’t seem to like! the rider put up five pounds overweight.

Edited by Sporting Sam
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Ayr 1737

draw data horse 

heatherdown hero

each way

aigheir

each way

cantalupo Bella 

win

jim goldie has the draw data horse as well as last years winner.

aigheir Won this of a pound higher mark an off 9:1 and runs off 8:13 before the jockeys claim

Heatherdown hero 

last won off a two pound higher mark for previous yard and is notable jockey gets off last year’s winner as he did with Abduction.

Canterlupo Bella is the springer horse

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