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Racing chat -thurs 21st sept

richard-westwood
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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

Posted
Posted

7.00 chelm 

Ehraz. 8.5 3/1 

War in heaven. 8.3 16/1 

Misty grey. 8.0 

Difficult race . .bookies have the lightly race kinta as short fav but 300 day layoff and stepping up in trip means he's no value at all ....ehraz has same problem stepping up in trip but has been running some very strong races at 6f so worth a try at 7f ......if he fails then I think war in heaven could spring a surprise at a big price .    I'll try 5pt win top rated ...2pt Ew war in heaven 

 

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Sporting Sam

Sporting Sam

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

7.00 chelm 

Ehraz. 8.5 3/1 

War in heaven. 8.3 16/1 

Misty grey. 8.0 

Difficult race . .bookies have the lightly race kinta as short fav but 300 day layoff and stepping up in trip means he's no value at all ....ehraz has same problem stepping up in trip but has been running some very strong races at 6f so worth a try at 7f ......if he fails then I think war in heaven could spring a surprise at a big price .    I'll try 5pt win top rated ...2pt Ew war in heaven 

 

Good morning Richard hope we can get our heads together on this race. War in heaven for Micheal Appleby is a big favourite of mine and has performed above and beyond the call of duty many times. I haven’t looked at anything as yet but hope we can come up with something special today.

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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

Posted
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Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, Sporting Sam said:

Good morning Richard hope we can get our heads together on this race. War in heaven for Micheal Appleby is a big favourite of mine and has performed above and beyond the call of duty many times. I haven’t looked at anything as yet but hope we can come up with something special today.

It's a very open race actually ....the fav with will Buick on is a huge unknown quantity ....he could win easily or finish nowhere ...there are others with squeaks too ....but I've made an addition to the way the computer finalises bets and it's been hugely successful this past month during testing so it's made it easier for me because the rules are strict and I just go ahead and back the top 2 Ew preferably .......I do like war in heaven though ...only negative is he's gone up 3lb but he loves Chelmsford and a lot of these have questions over going ...fitness ...dist etc so I'll be a bit disappointed if he doesn't place...4 places 

*Edit ...he's already as low as 10/1 😮 

Edited by richard-westwood
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kensland

kensland

Posted
Posted (edited)

Ayr.

Single 

5.17. Rory            6/1

Double. 

1.50. Offer and Receive         10/3

4.10. Dark Desire                      6/1

singles  & double 

Yarmouth. 

2.10. St Lukes Chelsea        7/4

3.20. Mayo  Neighs        10/3

singles & double 

Good luck all. 

Edited by kensland
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Tedthewolf

Tedthewolf

Posted
Posted
LUCKY 15 (EACH WAY)
REUSE SELECTION
 
 
 
6(13)
 
Honour Your Dreams10/1
Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4,5
14:25 Ayr
14:25, Today
 
 
Extra Place
Best Odds Guaranteed
PAYING 5 PLACES INSTEAD OF 4
 
 
 
9(7)
 
Fools Rush In16/1
Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3
15:00 Ayr
15:00, Today
 
 
Best Odds Guaranteed
 
 
 
 
2(11)
 
Hortzadar9/1
Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3,4
16:10 Ayr
16:10, Today
 
 
Extra Place
Best Odds Guaranteed
PAYING 4 PLACES INSTEAD OF 3
 
 
 
1(2)
 
Golden Apollo10/1
Win or Each Way, 1/5 odds - places 1,2,3
16:45 Ayr
16:45, Today
 
 
Best Odds Guaranteed
 
0.1 e/w L15 = 3pts invested
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Brahmin

Brahmin

Posted
Posted (edited)

Like Easterbys / Goldie / Fahey / Midgely  today at northern courses! 

Ayr 1.50     Bust a move  28/1 EW            Spirit of Aklam 9/2    WON 

Pont 2.00   Havana Pursuit  11/2   WON           Rhythm 9/2

Ayr 2.25      American Affair  8/1 EW    3RD           Sir Maxi  11/1 EW              Refuge 22/1EW               5 places

Yarm 2.45  Francesco Baracca  13/8   WON

List 2.50     Water Nymph  9/2    WON               Randall poets lass   11/2    

 

             4 quick WINS 🏆 🏆🏆🏆 and EW place so taking this profit 👍

Edited by Brahmin
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Sporting Sam

Sporting Sam

Posted
Posted (edited)

Chelmsford 18:30

monadil is the top weight and returned to form with a long awaited win latest. He has never backed up a win before and carries a penalty. He has gone close to doing so twice but winning under a penalty means more grief from the assessor and I’m looking elsewhere for someone to take advantage of the situation. Physics says the horse weighted under the favourite is a prime candidate as does my adjusted draw data

bluebell boy

win

draw data horse after an anomaly adjustment . 
down from a rating of 79 following maiden win at fairyhouse over six furlongs. Runs off low 50s here and expert jock David Probert on board 

kodi Nhor 

each way

 

Both of these are strong  fancies.

Bluebell boy was not far behind coast who stole a March on the field last time over six furlongs. Anyone who follows my rambling was  on  coast at 14/1.

This race won from stall 1 last year occupied by kodi here.

 

Edited by Sporting Sam
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Sporting Sam

Sporting Sam

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

It's a very open race actually ....the fav with will Buick on is a huge unknown quantity ....he could win easily or finish nowhere ...there are others with squeaks too ....but I've made an addition to the way the computer finalises bets and it's been hugely successful this past month during testing so it's made it easier for me because the rules are strict and I just go ahead and back the top 2 Ew preferably .......I do like war in heaven though ...only negative is he's gone up 3lb but he loves Chelmsford and a lot of these have questions over going ...fitness ...dist etc so I'll be a bit disappointed if he doesn't place...4 places 

*Edit ...he's already as low as 10/1 😮 

Hi Richard 

this is one of those races where anyone could win. I’m going with those who’ve been in higher grade races and done  well.

that means

iconic moment

kinta

both win

Alzahir

each way

kinta has to be of interest here while iconic moment won well in a class 1.

but some of these have run in group three I really want war in heaven to win he’s progressive and on a hat trick so best of luck. Some of these have good form abroad it is pretty wide open….

Edited by Sporting Sam
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Sporting Sam

Sporting Sam

Posted
Posted


Chelmsford 19:30

Spritzin
each way

just failed on  seasonal reappearance and bounced when near seen and clear this one needs to step up in trip and knowing the trainers mo sure to be well handicapped now on “true” handicap debut. Interesting with the “whirling dervish” riding who appears to be whipping the life out of his horse in the closing stages but  the stewards believe he is “air guitaring” them  with his persuader in hand.

BODYGROVE

Win

already proved to handle marathon trips and the most likely winner here.

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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

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Posted
19 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

7.00 chelm 

Ehraz. 8.5 3/1 

War in heaven. 8.3 16/1 

Misty grey. 8.0 

Difficult race . .bookies have the lightly race kinta as short fav but 300 day layoff and stepping up in trip means he's no value at all ....ehraz has same problem stepping up in trip but has been running some very strong races at 6f so worth a try at 7f ......if he fails then I think war in heaven could spring a surprise at a big price .    I'll try 5pt win top rated ...2pt Ew war in heaven 

 

2nd and 3rd ...war in heaven ran well ...can't complain 😁

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Sporting Sam

Sporting Sam

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Sporting Sam said:

This is an Alexander bet.

 

chelmsford 8:30

EL ROYALE 

steps up in trip and will be hard to beat  based on touched off by the fast finishing daisy roots recently.

our land

each way 

is the draw data horse

Alexander or not only a fourth place to end the day.( I’m waiting on a french team who are rampant against uraguay to see if they can score five more tries to match their eight first half efforts. If they do I’m on for a hundred quid profit.) it has been a good year on here and nice to collaborate with  @richard -Westwood on the seven on race together we got four of the first five home. Kodi noir was a 6/1 winner tonight along  with a 66/1 fifth in the aforementioned race. Alhizar.

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The Equaliser

The Equaliser

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Posted
5 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

2nd and 3rd ...war in heaven ran well ...can't complain 😁

Not complaining at all but I think that one has to be very careful with multiple each way bets in the same race.  I know that I recently backed four horses in a big handicap and a 25/1 shot placed.  However, even though that this was the highest priced return I think I still lost money.  Also, it could be argued that it is easier to find a 9/4 winner than a 16/1 ew place bet that yields almost the same return should the selection only get placed.  Good to see that you almost came out at B/E though

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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Not complaining at all but I think that one has to be very careful with multiple each way bets in the same race.  I know that I recently backed four horses in a big handicap and a 25/1 shot placed.  However, even though that this was the highest priced return I think I still lost money.  Also, it could be argued that it is easier to find a 9/4 winner than a 16/1 ew place bet that yields almost the same return should the selection only get placed.  Good to see that you almost came out at B/E though

Ehraz was win bet ..... so outlay was 9 ....return. about 8.2.... I was unlucky.  Could easily have been a profit ....normally I do Ew both if they are both over 11/2 so then there the chance if both place to make a profit off both and that happens a lot ....plus you get 2 high rated shots at win ...like a brill tag team in effect .....if the ratings are accurate  then the winner will usually be in top 3 .....you can't account for the sudden improver on the day like today ....it's more a loss control really to claw back a few  points when you don't win like today ...didn't win but almost broke even ...so I'll fight another day ...and sometimes one wins the other places and you get a win and a bonus win  ....and psychologically the little Ew wins keep up morale so it's win/win lol

Someone on here does all my horses Ew all the time especially in big races and when I've won 60 PTS they've annoyingly ended up with 80-90 cos of all the little Ew wins ..they've been doing that to half stakes Ew for years and are well in profit.overall ......and they get loads fun ....it's just personal choice

😂

Edited by richard-westwood
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MCLARKE

MCLARKE

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Not complaining at all but I think that one has to be very careful with multiple each way bets in the same race.  I know that I recently backed four horses in a big handicap and a 25/1 shot placed.  However, even though that this was the highest priced return I think I still lost money.  Also, it could be argued that it is easier to find a 9/4 winner than a 16/1 ew place bet that yields almost the same return should the selection only get placed.  Good to see that you almost came out at B/E though

I normally don't bet more than 1 horse in a race but for extra place races I am happy to back up to 6 in 6 place races. It has proved to be one of my most profitable systems.

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