Tennis Tips - July 24 - July 30

[CzechPunter]

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[CzechPunter]

Ankita Raina (+5.5) to beat Anna Jodie Burrage at 1.73 with Bet365

Burrage lost an awful match against Bai last time out, while Raina has finally stringed some wins together, and shouldn't be this easy to beat honestly. 5.5 lines are by no means simple to cover, it has to be a one-sided match, and I'm not sure why this should be that.

Aliaksandra Sasnovich (+5.5) to beat Karolina Muchova at 1.80 with Unibet

Of course Muchova is the favourite here, but this is another 5.5 line that might be very tricky to cover. Sasnovich is a classy player with all the experience in the world, and the fact that both could be somewhat rusty favours this bet as well imo.

Linda Fruhvirtova to beat Lucrezia Stefanini at 1.50 with Unibet

My final bet is actually on a favourite, with the talented L. Fruhvirtova taking on Stefanini, who's looking to finally break the top 100 mark. This is a tough spot, though, and I think Linda will have more than enough in the tank here.

[carina007]

I would say Munar vs Albert Ramos @ 1.50 is banker today. Only 2 days after final in Gstaad it would be too much for 35 years old Ramos. I wouldn't be surprised if he withdraws. It worries me only H2H which is 5:0 for Ramos

 

 

[sterziyskii]

Shevchenko against Cecchinato. Coria against Huesler and Vekic are my pick for today. 

[MJT]

Hi all, been reading on the forum for years and thought I would bite the bullet and start to post some plays.

L Musetti -4.5 Games v E Ymer 1.73, Pinnacle (NAP)
Musetti is the defending champion here this week in Hamburg and should be far too good for Elias Ymer. The 186 ranked player has been struggling to string any sort of consistent results together for quite some time now. Despite losing last week to Ruud in the Semi Final in Bastad, Musetti was playing some really good tennis. With points to defend this week he will be highly motivated to get off to a strong start and should win with relative ease.
 
A Rus -3.5 Games v M Timofeeva 1.75, Pinnacle (NB)
Despite losing in qualifying last week Timofeeva turned it around and won Budapest. She played some great tennis but some really long matches (five 3 set matches) which could really have an impact here. It’s a very quick turnaround and she is playing against a player in Rus who has lost just once on clay since May. During that period Rus has won 3 tournaments in a row including a 15 match winning run before she lost in a tight 3 set battle to eventual runner up Paolini in Palermo. Rus will be the fresher player here and the lefty will play her usual aggressive tennis. I am expecting a post title hangover here for Timofeeva and a win for Rus. I was tempted by the 4.5 game handicap at bigger odds but have opted for the slightly lower line.
 
B Nakashima to win 2-0 v M Purcell 1.83, Bet365
I sided against Purcell last week when he lost to Brouwer and I will do the same again here. He has been poor since May and was easily beaten last week on grass. There are also rumours he has been playing with a fractured foot for a while which is one of the main reasons I went against him in Newport. He now transitions to a fast hard court in very humid conditions against Nakashima who he has already lost to 6-3 6-3 last year. During that match Purcell was regularly under pressure on serve and I see the same happening here as well. I was tempted by the –3.5 games but have opted for the straight sets win just in case one of the sets, possibly the first, is a little tighter than expected. Both should hit though.
 
S Wawrinka –3.5 Games v F Misolic 1.95, Pinnacle
I picked Wawrinka last week in Gstaad in his poor loss to Munar but willing to give him another chance here. On a slow clay court in Umag he should have far too much power for Misolic. As long as Wawrinka keeps the errors down this should be a comfortable win for the Swiss.

[CzechPunter]

Hi @MJT, welcome to the forum, and good luck!

[MJT]

Thanks @CzechPunter

Big shout out to you as well as your tipping has been brilliant over the years I have been looking at the forum. 

Keep up the great work 👍

[CzechPunter]

Daria Saville to beat Tamara Korpatsch at 2.00 with Bet365

Back again with Saville, as I feel that Korpatsch is tremendously overrated at the moment, she's very average in all respects, and struggled heavily in R1. Saville has shown a lot of fight and the comeback trail could very well continue here.

[MJT]

M Arnaldi -2.5 Games v F Cobolli 1.80, Pinnacle (NAP)
I’ve been really impressed with the improvements of Arnaldi over the past 12 months. He has been incredibly consistent and this season has very rarely lost to anyone on clay when favourite this year. He is 2-1 up in the head to head but all matches were close, although they have not played against each other for almost a year so it will be interesting to see how much Arnaldi has now improved. Cobolli had a decent win in the opening round against Cilic but he was coming back from knee surgery and hadn’t played since January so not sure how much you can take from that one. Arnaldi for me is playing the much better tennis at the moment so I am expecting to see an easier win this time around.

Double
M Andreeva 2-0 v Bondar x L Musetti 2-0 v J Kovalik 2.10, Bet365 (NB)
Andreeva looked excellent in her 1st round 6-0 6-2 win back on clay after a great debut Wimbledon. Bondar was lucky to beat Babos last week before being beaten easily 6-3 6-0 to Avanesyan. Andreeva’s movement especially on this surface is so good I just don’t see what Bondar can do to even make this one close really. It would take a massive off day from Andreeva to not win this comfortably. I backed Musetti on the handicap yesterday and he looked good. The defending champion will want another strong performance here against a player who was heavily beaten in qualifying. He may have already known he was going to be a lucky loser but either way I suspect Musetti should win with relative ease.

F Coria -1.5 Games v M Huesler 1.94, Pinnacle
Huesler has had a pretty average year and has barely put together any strong results on clay throughout the season. In fact he has only won two matches on the surface against Edmund (pretty much lost to everyone this season) and Mena (ranked 368). Most of his wins have come on indoor hard so this being a slow clay court will heavily favour Coria who will continue to get balls back and make Huesler play. Coria won the only previous head to head match 2 years ago, also on clay in 3 sets. On Coria’s preferred surface and after performing well last week in Bastad I think he should be confident in his chances to progress.

C Eubanks to beat B Nakashima 2.0, Betway
I was expecting Eubanks to start the favourite in this match given his form over the past couple of months. Nakashima has not had the best of seasons and will have to return incredibly well against the big Eubanks serve in order to try and force the errors. Eubanks went to college in the area so will be used to the conditions as well which could be a big help being so hot and humid. Will likely be a close match with the possibility of a tie break or two but I like Eubanks chances here with his serve and powerful baseline game. Think he should be priced at 1.85/1.90 so happy to have a small play at these odds.

Edited July 26, 2023 by MJT

[sterziyskii]

Delbonis against Vesely is a great match in my opinion at @1.65

[carina007]

"Interesting" how all favorites from yesterday which were leading at ATP Umag magically lost today. 
Betting is the biggest enemy of fair tennis

[MJT]

A Rus -2.5 Games v E Lys 1.85, Pinnacle (NAP)

I backed Rus earlier in the week and I will stick with her again here. She has been playing some great tennis over the past few months on the clay and beat Lys less than 2 weeks ago in straight sets 6-4 6-4. Lys is improving but I think the powerful aggressive game of Rus will once again be too much for her to handle.

 

C Garin +4.5 Games v C Ruud 2.05, Unibet (NB)

Ruud was poor yesterday and was very lucky to get through. He complained during the early stages of the match as to how poor the court was and hated the conditions. Garin has a 3-1 head to head record and beat him earlier this year. Slight concern with the fitness of Garin over the past few months but if he is back to being fully fit then this should be close. Was tempted by the over games but this covers a 6-4 6-4 scoreline.

 

D Koepfer to beat D Evans 2.0, Bet365

Evans has had a very poor season and has not looked at all motivated over the past few months. His grass campaign was pretty shocking having only won against Harris (ranked 319) & McCable (ranked 272). Koepfer has won a couple of titles this season, both on clay, and had a good victory over Isner in the 1st round so has at least played in the difficult conditions. Evans has not played on hard courts since March and has failed to win a match on the surface since the Australian Open in January. He is in no form at all and this alongside the conditions in Atlanta I would favour Koepfer in this match up, although it will likely be tight.

 

Long Shot:

M Cecchinato to beat L Sonego 3.50, Bet365

I think these odds should be a little closer than they are currently set. Cecchinato loves the conditions in Umag having won the title back in 2018 and reached the quarter finals last year. These are slow clay courts so if Cecchinato can get plenty of balls back in play there is a chance Sonego could be wayward with his shots and create lot’s of unforced errors. Added to this in Sonego’s last match, his 3 set loss to Ramos in Gastad, Sonego was injured and could barely walk towards the end. It could have been cramps but it did look a little worse than that to me. If fully fit than of course Sonego is still the favourite but at these odds I think it is worth a small play.

[carina007]

I will try today with Lehecka 1.85 against Thiem. This more against Domi because he is challenger player now and I really love Lehecka

Wawrinka 1.55 against Coria. I don't have big opinion about Coria and Wawrinka should win this with experience. 

Munar 1.85 against Maroszan only because good records Spain players in Umag. Specially Carlos Moya

Edited July 27, 2023 by carina007

[carina007]

5 hours ago, carina007 said:

I will try today with Lehecka 1.85 against Thiem. This more against Domi because he is challenger player now and I really love Lehecka

Wawrinka 1.55 against Coria. I don't have big opinion about Coria and Wawrinka should win this with experience. 

Munar 1.85 against Maroszan only because good records Spain players in Umag. Specially Carlos Moya

Easyyyy

[CzechPunter]

Ruud (vs. Fils) + Zverev (vs. van Assche) at 1.56 with Bet365

Going with a small fav combo tomorrow. Ruud showed good fight in his comeback today, while Zverev has been dominant so far as well. Plenty of points and money on the line here, so the motivation should be there.

[sterziyskii]

I feel like I'm in such a black hole currently, always choosing 1 wrong match so I'll trust you today guys. What else to play with Ruud and Zverev? I think Lehecka will beat Arnaldi or Wawrinka?

[Stanimal]

2 hours ago, sterziyskii said:

I feel like I'm in such a black hole currently, always choosing 1 wrong match so I'll trust you today guys. What else to play with Ruud and Zverev? I think Lehecka will beat Arnaldi or Wawrinka?

Wawrinka will smash baena. Good luck! 

[carina007]

Big words but Lehecka for 1.80 seems like a gift today. He is just too much for  Arnaldi who is in very good form recently. 
 

I will add Wawrinka 1.55, Zverev 1.25 and Ruud 1.20 in that combo. 

[MJT]

Double:

A Zverev 2-0 v Luca Van Assche + JJ Wolf +1.5 Sets 1.96 Pinnacle (NAP)

Luca Van Assche has done well to reach his maiden ATP tour quarter final. However, I see his run ending here as I just don’t see what weapons he has to hurt the Zverev game really. Zverev has the upper hand on the serve and will certainly have more power from the baseline. I backed Zverev last week to win in straight sets in Bastad and he let me down but I would be surprised if he did it again here especially with the home crowd behind him. I backed Koepfer to beat Evans yesterday and it was extremely lucky. Evans was in complete control and missed match points as well as failing to serve it out. He also lead 4-1 in the 3rd set as well before losing 5 games in a row. JJ Wolf should be winning this one comfortably really but I will pick him to just win a set here to increase the odds in the double.

 

A Popyrin to beat D Prizmic 2.0, Skybet (NB)

I backed Popyrin earlier in the week and I will stick with him again here. Had a really good result beating in form Ofner 6-4 6-1 last round, winning 76% of service points and only facing 1 break point. He is up against local youngster Dino Prizmic, who looks to have a very bright future at just 17 years old. However, this is a big step up for him from previous opponents and will be facing a player with a massive kick serve which he may struggle to contain. The crowd will certainly be with Prizmic but that sometimes can be added pressure especially for such a young player. Popyrin will need to continue to serve well and avoid large amounts of unforced errors. If he can do that he should have too much power in this one.

 

A Zverev v L Van Assche Under 20.5 Games 1.95, Pinnacle

As per above I see a routine victory here for Zverev. I struggle to see Van Assche being able to reach 5 games in a set with the way Zverev has been playing so far this week. I see something like a 6-4 6-3 at best really.

 

L Siegemund -1.5 Games v L Stefanini 1.93, Unibet

I’ve been waiting to go against Stefanini this tournament but the opponents she faced just were not quite good enough for me to feel confident on. However, I now feel she will meet her match in Siegemund who has looked good so far in her opening 2 matches especially when previously beating 4th seed and 38th ranked big hitter Lin Zhu 6-4 6-4. Siegemund is a crafty player and often uncomfortable to play against. Could be some long rallies in this match but I do feel Siegemund will hold the edge with the better serve, although there will likely be quite a few breaks in this one.

 

Long Shot:

A Popyrin 2-0 v D Prizmic 3.30, William Hill

As per above I feel Popyrin will be too strong in this one and will have a small play on the straight set victory. If he plays as well as he did against Ofner this should have a decent chance.

 

I was also leaning towards Arnaldi and Eubanks games handicap today but will just stick with the above.

[carina007]

Munar 2.30 looks like a very nice bet. 
I was not impressed with Sonego yesterday vs Cechinatto.  He was very unsecured. Cechinatto had set ball in second set but he is clown. Sonego too tall for clay. 

[888888]

did anyone watch the 17y/o Prizmic Dino at Umag ??

Considering taking his opponent Popyrin at 1,90 who seeing the results of his last two matches also seems in good form.

[carina007]

1 hour ago, 888888 said:

did anyone watch the 17y/o Prizmic Dino at Umag ??

Considering taking his opponent Popyrin at 1,90 who seeing the results of his last two matches also seems in good form.

Well, Dino is this year Junior Roland Garros winner but it's huge difference between junior and senior tennis. 
i think Popyrin will win 

[sterziyskii]

5 hours ago, MJT said:

Double:

A Zverev 2-0 v Luca Van Assche + JJ Wolf +1.5 Sets 1.96 Pinnacle (NAP)

Luca Van Assche has done well to reach his maiden ATP tour quarter final. However, I see his run ending here as I just don’t see what weapons he has to hurt the Zverev game really. Zverev has the upper hand on the serve and will certainly have more power from the baseline. I backed Zverev last week to win in straight sets in Bastad and he let me down but I would be surprised if he did it again here especially with the home crowd behind him. I backed Koepfer to beat Evans yesterday and it was extremely lucky. Evans was in complete control and missed match points as well as failing to serve it out. He also lead 4-1 in the 3rd set as well before losing 5 games in a row. JJ Wolf should be winning this one comfortably really but I will pick him to just win a set here to increase the odds in the double.

 

A Popyrin to beat D Prizmic 2.0, Skybet (NB)

I backed Popyrin earlier in the week and I will stick with him again here. Had a really good result beating in form Ofner 6-4 6-1 last round, winning 76% of service points and only facing 1 break point. He is up against local youngster Dino Prizmic, who looks to have a very bright future at just 17 years old. However, this is a big step up for him from previous opponents and will be facing a player with a massive kick serve which he may struggle to contain. The crowd will certainly be with Prizmic but that sometimes can be added pressure especially for such a young player. Popyrin will need to continue to serve well and avoid large amounts of unforced errors. If he can do that he should have too much power in this one.

 

A Zverev v L Van Assche Under 20.5 Games 1.95, Pinnacle

As per above I see a routine victory here for Zverev. I struggle to see Van Assche being able to reach 5 games in a set with the way Zverev has been playing so far this week. I see something like a 6-4 6-3 at best really.

 

L Siegemund -1.5 Games v L Stefanini 1.93, Unibet

I’ve been waiting to go against Stefanini this tournament but the opponents she faced just were not quite good enough for me to feel confident on. However, I now feel she will meet her match in Siegemund who has looked good so far in her opening 2 matches especially when previously beating 4th seed and 38th ranked big hitter Lin Zhu 6-4 6-4. Siegemund is a crafty player and often uncomfortable to play against. Could be some long rallies in this match but I do feel Siegemund will hold the edge with the better serve, although there will likely be quite a few breaks in this one.

 

Long Shot:

A Popyrin 2-0 v D Prizmic 3.30, William Hill

As per above I feel Popyrin will be too strong in this one and will have a small play on the straight set victory. If he plays as well as he did against Ofner this should have a decent chance.

 

I was also leaning towards Arnaldi and Eubanks games handicap today but will just stick with the above.

great call on Zverev, followed you. Also went with Popyrin and Lehecka to win a set which is in. 

I regret not trying Noga Akague +1.5 sets at 1.9 as I played against her when she played Hunter. Her shots are so strong but in the Final against Rus it's going to be hard for her

[MJT]

7 minutes ago, sterziyskii said:

great call on Zverev, followed you. Also went with Popyrin and Lehecka to win a set which is in. 

I regret not trying Noga Akague +1.5 sets at 1.9 as I played against her when she played Hunter. Her shots are so strong but in the Final against Rus it's going to be hard for her

A little bit lucky in the 2nd set with Zverev but will take that. Gutted I didn't go with Arnaldi as well as I was very close on that one.

Popyrin has started the match well so hopefully he can win.

Noga Akague certainly looks a good prospect and has improved massively. Like you say I do think Rus and the occasion may get the better of her in the final.

[sterziyskii]

I'll give it a try with Eubanks to win against Vukic at 1.70 in his hometown. Scoring 23 aces in the last match winning 12 out of his 13 matches and being in the form of his life. 

Also I think Rus should win against Noga Akague at 1.40. I really liked watching her last 2 matches but Rus is in a really great form winning the Challenger in France last week.

 

[CzechPunter]

I'll be leaving Saturday alone betting-wise, but good luck to everyone who's getting stuck in!

[sterziyskii]

Eubanks such a match...

[MJT]

U Humber -1.5 Games v A Vukic 1.83, Bet365 (NAP)
Was really impressed with Humbert in his 7-6 6-4 victory over number 2 seed De Minaur. Vukic doesn’t particularly have the greatest return game and in baseline rallies I would favour Humbert to get the better of most. I struggle to see what Vukic can do to hurt Humbert in this match up really. He would have to serve incredibly well and hit a large number of winners which I think he may struggle to do over a sustained period. Even if this was close and went to 3 sets every chance Humbert can cover this line.

A Zverev v A Fils Over 21.5 Games 1.85, William Hill (NB)
I think this could be a little closer than the odds suggest. Fils was excellent yesterday in his crushing 6-0 6-4 victory over the number 1 seed Ruud and is a player with huge potential. He seems to be really enjoying the conditions in Hamburg and playing some great tennis having yet to drop a set this week. The same can also be said for Zverev and he is still the favourite in this match up but I would not be at all surprised if there is either a very close set (7/5 or 7/6) or if Fils even takes this to 3. Although Zverev is playing well he is still not quite at the level yet he was before his injury last year and as long as Fils continues to serve well with his usual aggressive game he will prove to be a real test for Zverev here. 

L Djere v Z Zhang Over 22.5 Games 1.92, Unibet
Both players have been playing some great tennis this week and this should be a very good match. Djere continued his impressive head to head record against Musetti winning 7-5 6-3. Zhang after beating Hanfmann followed up that victory against another German player Altmaier in straight sets 6-4 6-4. The slow and damp conditions in Hamburg have really suited the powerful Zhang game this week as it allows him to hit through his opponents. Zhang often has moments in sets where he is pretty unplayable so I can see this one being either a very close 2 setter or most likely going to 3. Djere is a great player to back on Clay when underdog but he is never really someone I would trust as favourite.

[carina007]

I will try todaj with Arnaldi 1.65 because he is in very good form, beat yesterday Lehecka who was my first favourite to win Umag

Second pick is Wawrinka 1.90 because i really don't like Sonego tennis.  I am only worried because od Stan's fitness. 
 

we will see, yesterday's day is to forget asap. 

[MJT]

M Arnaldi -1.5 Games v A Popyrin 1.93, Pinnacle
I wasn’t going to get involved in this match as I thought the lines set were about correct. However, Pinnacle have increased the odds on this one from 1.81 this morning to 1.93 so it is now a play for me. This will likely be a very close match but Arnaldi has improved so much over the past 12 months I just give him the edge in this match up. He will get a lot of balls back and there is a potential that Popyrin will start to over hit his shots in frustration which he can do sometimes. Even in a close 2 setter or 3 sets and there is every chance he can cover such a small line.

M Arnaldi v A Popyrin OVer 22.5 Games 1.85, Coral
As per above I do think this match will be close. I also think there is a potential for at least a tie break here so the overs is very much in play. Both players have been serving well this week so there may not be many break opportunities in this one.