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Racing chat-friday 21st July


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Newmarket. 

Single. 

8.40. Eeh Bah Gum            12/1   unpl

stk 5.00   rtn 65.00

Lucky 15.

6.30.Ham. Up The Jazz        3/1     unpl

6.20.Newm. Out Run The Storm        4/1   1st 

7.05. Ham. Khunan                        5/1      unpl

8.15. Ham. Show me Show me         6/1    unpl

stk 7.50      rtn 839. 50.

Good luck all. 

Edited by kensland
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Killbebbegan 4:30

maiden hurdle

valpresso 

hss had everything possible go wrong that could in running. A slipped saddle did for his well backed chances last time and emptied wallets quicker than a price wise or Hugh Taylor tip.

He has a half stone claimer on board and today he has Sam Ewing riding. Sam is owed a big big favour by Gordon Elliott as he has taken one for the team now about 75 times at the last count. There has not been a longer losing run in the Irish racing since Gordon sat on an unfortunate horse and copped a ban.

There is a cloud of silver lining to the story though as each one of those horses will provide the ammunition for winners this season if you can go through the back catalogue of sam’s runners. The trend may well be bucked today, but at odds on, who cares?

u asking me at 200/1 has placed previously and the second placed third next time out to encanto Bruno. Big big outsider but has run well in point to points.

u askingme

each way 

200/1

ive also used my free fiver to go

28/1 U askingme

to place (six places )

A 28/1 win bet on a horse who could be very ordinary but run on past beaten horses for sixth is a possibility.

Edited by sporting sam
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Giv Us A Sub                                -     7 05 Hml/                  1/40th of a pt ew  16/1

Pjanoo                                          -     7 30 Nmk/                 1/40th of a pt ew  20/1

Edited by black rabbit
selections
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Nottingham 4.40

Eltham Palace

each way

the performance of potorro for John butler at Salisbury  at the weekend came in controversial circumstances in that the jockey who had prepared him to win ala mark Prescott style on handicap debut ( the Same jockey  had ridden him three times over sprint distances and beaten very few rivals) lined up on the beaten favourite who was subsequently beaten 9 lengths, that horse reappears here minus the jockey.

Second  on his last four runs but 3 lengths Clear of the third at Salisbury.

Given he’s been beaten by Rory the cat a subsequent winner again means that runner should go closer again today. More on him later.

 

 

Edited by sporting sam
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3.50 Hay - Prince Alex - 9/4 - Gets Soft going on turf ( 5 of his 6 wins)for the first time since winning at Glorious Goodwood 2 years ago (was rated 89 - today is 85). He won over CD on his only previous visit and is 3/3 in class 4 or lower handicaps. The main danger looks to be the unexposed (only 2 races) Quantum Leap, whose trainer Ed Bethell is in very good form ( 3 wins from 6 runners), and when jockey Callum Rodriguez rides for him they have a combined 43% strike rate ( might have a saver at 11/2).

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Newbury 1.50

Gushing Gold

Win

average winning stall last three years 

7.333

average of placed horses the last three years 

7.88

puts gushing gold right there in stall 8 IF the draw bias remains constant.

Very unlucky and ran green on debut form right up there in a competitive Albany stakes, ninth more than handy.

So with group three form dropping back in level there  may be something better, but with Oisin Murphy on board and the berth, gets every opportunity.

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1 hour ago, Bang on said:

3.50 Hay - Prince Alex - 9/4 - Gets Soft going on turf ( 5 of his 6 wins)for the first time since winning at Glorious Goodwood 2 years ago (was rated 89 - today is 85). He won over CD on his only previous visit and is 3/3 in class 4 or lower handicaps. The main danger looks to be the unexposed (only 2 races) Quantum Leap, whose trainer Ed Bethell is in very good form ( 3 wins from 6 runners), and when jockey Callum Rodriguez rides for him they have a combined 43% strike rate ( might have a saver at 11/2).

It was soft at Newbury but that was after a long lay off.

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9.00 Ponte - Corinthia Knight - 9/1 EW ( 1/5th 4 places with 365 ) Has been dropping in the weights (won off 13lbs higher within the last year).  He is a 5 x CD winner, and although 4 were on Gd/Fm - he won a class 2 ( today class 5 ) on soft over CD in 2021 (rated 88 - today 65 ). This also seems to be his time of year as he has an excellent record in July. Trainer Archie Watson has a 29% strike rate at the track, and Danny Tudhope (2nd top jock at track) takes the ride. Although now 8 years old, he is better class ( has won from as high as 105) and at 9/1 with 4 places available looks a solid EW selection.

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Hay dock 3.50

ravrnscraig castle 

win

touched off the last twice and drops in class here if chance hasn’t gone entitled to win at some stage soon.

de Vegas warrior 

each way

if the penalised runner cannot go on then de Vegas can cash in

 

 

 

Edited by sporting sam
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18 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Newm 620 

Just a,quick one ....OUTRUN THE STORM  is on his own top rated here ....a fair bit in front of rest ....he's onky 4/1 so no ew price  unfortunately I'll try 5pt win 4/1 

Drifted a bit now on Betfair so I have had 5 pts win at 5.23.  The money seems to be going on Jamie Spencer's mount My Mate Ted or should I say Marmite Ted

Good luck to Richard

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9 hours ago, sporting sam said:

Killbebbegan 4:30

maiden hurdle

valpresso 

hss had everything possible go wrong that could in running. A slipped saddle did for his well backed chances last time and emptied wallets quicker than a price wise or Hugh Taylor tip.

He has a half stone claimer on board and today he has Sam Ewing riding. Sam is owed a big big favour by Gordon Elliott as he has taken one for the team now about 75 times at the last count. There has not been a longer losing run in the Irish racing since Gordon sat on an unfortunate horse and copped a ban.

There is a cloud of silver lining to the story though as each one of those horses will provide the ammunition for winners this season if you can go through the back catalogue of sam’s runners. The trend may well be bucked today, but at odds on, who cares?

u asking me at 200/1 has placed previously and the second placed third next time out to encanto Bruno. Big big outsider but has run well in point to points.

u askingme

each way 

200/1

ive also used my free fiver to go

28/1 U askingme

to place (six places )

A 28/1 win bet on a horse who could be very ordinary but run on past beaten horses for sixth is a possibility.

Cheers,I took 35/1 10 places bet365.  It was 7th  😃

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6 hours ago, Bang on said:

3.50 Hay - Prince Alex - 9/4 - Gets Soft going on turf ( 5 of his 6 wins)for the first time since winning at Glorious Goodwood 2 years ago (was rated 89 - today is 85). He won over CD on his only previous visit and is 3/3 in class 4 or lower handicaps. The main danger looks to be the unexposed (only 2 races) Quantum Leap, whose trainer Ed Bethell is in very good form ( 3 wins from 6 runners), and when jockey Callum Rodriguez rides for him they have a combined 43% strike rate ( might have a saver at 11/2).

Prince Alex - Lost

Fortunately the 'danger' Quantum Leap - Won 9/1 - giving me a healthy profit on the race.

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