Racing Chat - Friday 7th April

[The Brigadier]

A bumper afternoon’s racing with the ITV cameras showing 9 races split between Newcastle (6 races) and Lingfield (3) for the All-Weather Championships with a staggering x on offer to the victorious. Here’s my thoughts on the nine races:-

 

Newcastle 1.50

The North East’s premier all weather track kicks off with a 6F 3 year old conditions stakes which has a good record for favourites with the last five all winning. The one to beat is the Richard Hannon trained Shouldhavebeenaring who’s latest run can easily be forgiven as he was slowly away and held up by Jamie Spencer who also forced him to swing wide around the last bend. He was my nap that day and it was a pretty moderate ride to say the least in my opinion. Back to a straight mile with Sean Levey on board, who’s won on him three times, he looks a decent bet. George Boughey’s Perdika looks the danger having won a listed contest on the turf at Chantilly last month. She’s 4 from 5 on synthetic surfaces so this surface will be no problem for her. She represents decent each way value at the current prices. There’s plenty that are hard to fancy in this ten runner contest although a mention has to be made of Julie Camacho’s Shaquille who is on hat trick following wins at York on the turf last October and at Wolverhampton in December.

 

SHOULDHAVEBEENARING 2 points win @ 9/4 bet365

PERDIKA 1 point each way @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

Newcastle 2.25

Nine go to post for this 2M 56 yard All-Weather Marathon Stakes. It’s an intriguing race and I’m happy to dismiss the progressive and in form Hugo Palmer runner Nolton Cross who hasn’t raced behind 1m 4F and we don’t know whether he’ll see out this trip. The trip may also be an issue with course specialist (2 from 3) Barenboim, whose stamina ran out when runner up at Wolverhampton in January according to his jockey that day Daniel Muscott. Andrew Balding’s Berkshire Rocco has always had a touch of class about him and has shown in two runs at this trip on the all weather this year that he’s all about stamina. He holds several of these on those runs and with Oisin Murphy riding looks the most likeliest winner to my eyes. Last year’s winner Earlofthecotswolds looks the danger. He has the same official rating as Berkshire Rocco but has been behind the selection twice this season and is getting no younger at nine years of age.

 

BERKSHIRE ROCCO 2 points win @ 9/4 bet365

 

Lingfield 2.40

A dozen go to post for this valuable one mile class 3 handicap in which we have a warm favourite in the William Haggas trained, Ryan Moore ridden top weight Brewing. He’s unbeaten in three starts at Newcastle (twice) and Kempton and is trying a mile for the first time. He’s been raised 6lb for his latest success which came last December and there’s a lot to like about him expect his price! Irish challenger Final Voyage is an interesting especially with Billy ‘The Kid’ Loughnane claiming 5lb which is the best value around anywhere at the moment. He’s drawn out wide mind which is a negative. The other Irish challenger is the John McConnell trained Mulgrave who’s chasing a four timer having won three moderate 1M handicap on the sand at Dundalk. He’s hard to assess. At the odds I can’t resist a small each way wager on the old boy of the field Power Of Darkness who’s now in the hands of the in form Charlie Fellowes. He’s had just the three runs for Fellowes and appears to be building up to something with his latest effort when third at Newcastle to Point Lynas already boosted by the subsequent victories of the 4th and 8th. Rated 86 that’s 12lb lower than his career high mark and 4lb lower than his last win. Harry Davies is great value for his 3lb claim and looks the each way value here although it is quite possible that Brewing is a class above these.

 

POWER OF DARKNESS 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Newcastle 3.00

A small but select field of just six line up for the Easter Classic Middle Distance Stakes run over 10F. The highest rated of the sextet is the David Marnane Irish trained Freescape who was last seen racing in Meydan at the Dubai Carnival cutting no ice in three starts. John and Thady Gosden run their two seven year olds Forest Of Dean and Harrovian who both appear to like racing on the all weather surface. The former was last seen running a credible 6th (beaten 5 3/4L) in the Winter Derby, form which has been subsequently boosted by wins for the winner Lord North in the Grade 1 Dubai Turf and the third Foxes Tale easily in a Kempton listed contest. Half a length ahead of him that day was his stable mate Harrovian and there’s likely to be very little between them once more. Base Note is dropping in trip which may not be ideal whilst Notre Belle Bete and United Front have officially 12lb and 14lb to find with the top rated. Not the strongest of Easter Classics but the Gosden’s have a good hand here and it maybe Harrovian’s turn to score today.

 

HARRIOVIAN 1 point win @ 11/4 bet365

 

Lingfield 3.15

A dozen sprint handicappers turn up here for this class 3 6F sprint handicap. The race is wide open with many holding claims on their best efforts. Ryan Moore is on board Adrian Keatley’s Shaka Asker who’s picked up a 5lb penalty for his Chelmsford victory earlier in the week. Tolstoy looks like there’s a handicap in him but he’s very tricky and has to be mounted in the chute as he’s so headstrong. Richard Fahey’s Adeb arrives in good form having won two of his four starts this season and is yet another with claims. I’ll just take a chance, small each way, on the under rated Yorkshire trainer Grant Tuer and his ultra consistent four year old Walking On Clouds. He’s not been out of the frame on his last ten starts and the booking of the excellent Billy ‘The Kid’ Loughnane may sway things in his favour.

 

WALKING ON CLOUDS 1 point each way @ 17/2 Unibet 1/5 1234

 

Newcastle 3.35

Only six go to post for the All-Weather Mile Championships Stakes run over a straight mile. The best treated of the sextet at todays weights is the Andrew Balding trained four year old Berkshire Shadow. His best run as a three year old was when finishing 6th beaten just under 2L in the St James Palace at Royal Ascot and returned following a gelding operation to win a listed contest at Wolverhampton last month by 1 3/4L from the smart Angel Bleu. He’s sure to run well stepping back up to a mile here today. Clive Cox’s six year old Positive is in a rich vein of form currently winning his last two starts in one mile handicaps and is only rated 5lb behind the favourite Berkshire Shadow. The Irish challenger San Andreas trained at Kilkenny by Joseph O’Brien may turn out the biggest threat to the favourite. Last seen winning a weak one mile contest at Dundalk easily he has to be respected as does Stan Moore’s The Wizard Of Eye who has always been held in high regard by his trainer and looks a bit overpriced in double figures today.

 

BERKSHIRE SHADOW 2 points win @ 11/8 bet365

 

Lingfield 3.50

A very competitive class 3 1M 2F handicap is up next with a maximum field of fourteen going to post. A real puzzle of a race with many holding chances. Top weight Diderot from the upwardly mobile stables of James Ferguson is a possible along with George Boughey’s Queen Of Ipanema especially with William Buick booked to ride. Only raised 4lb for her Newcastle victory last month she’s on my short list along with Obsidian Knight who’s well berthed in stall one and likes this Sussex course winning here three times from six runs. Simon Pearce’s Storm Catcher is chasing a hat trick but is up 4lb whilst War Of Heaven is two from two at the track for trainer Mick Appleby. A minefield of a race but my pin falls on the Kevin Phillapart De Foy trained Million Thanks who is actually two pounds well in today having run well at Kempton last Saturday when positive in the market in finishing runner up to Bear Force One under Richard Kingscote. Top apprentice Benoit De La Sayette, fresh from his win last weekend in the Lincoln on Migration has been booked and his 3lb claim could be invaluable in a tight finish.

 

MILLION THANKS 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Newcastle 4.10

The All-Weather Fillies’ And Mares’ Championships Stakes is up next with just seven going to post. This looks a straight match between the four year olds, Roger Varian’s Manaafith and William Haggas’s Queen Aminatu. It will be quite a surprise if one of this pair doesn’t take this valuable prize. Manaafith, owned by Shadwell and ridden here by their retained rider Jim Crowley is six from six on the all weather putting up his best effort when beating Sir Busker easily in a listed race at Lingfield last time out. Queen Aminatu is actually officially rated a 4lb better horse of the pair and although she hasn’t been seen since winning a listed race at Deauville on their synthetic surface (making it 4 wins from 6 starts on all weather surfaces) will be a big threat to Manaafith. It’s a tough call but my preference is for the Varian horse who has impressed me in her short career so far. The others all have plenty to find with Irish raider Hodd’s Girl maybe the best of the rest.

 

MANAAFITH 2 points win 5/4 BetVictor

 

Newcastle 4.45

The final race of the bonanza of afternoon racing from ITV is the 6F All-Weather Sprint Championships Stakes. There’s officially not a great deal between many of these although I have a fancy in the shape of the Mick Appleby trained Annaf. He’s looked an improved performer this year winning at Lingfield (twice) and Kempton beating his main opponent here Diligent Harry by a neck. Obviously those victories have been racing around a bend and todays contest is on the straight track although with track figures of 1142 that really shouldn’t be an issue. James Doyle is in the saddle and he looks the one to be with. Diligent Harry has flopped since over 6 1/2F in France at Chantilly where he may not have seen out the extra half a furlong. Vadream bolted up in the heavy ground at Doncaster last weekend but this will be a totally different exercise. It’s Annaf for me.

 

ANNAF 2 points win @ 10/3 Betfred

[richard-westwood]

I've just passed Monday's irish national through the computer and it threw back 2 horses clear ..   

Defi bleu    9.0 33/1 

Angels dawn    8.8  12/1 

Next horse is 8.2 !.....so I'm gonna try and get some early value bets and try for a coup .....could be 400pt payday .especially if defi bleu wins for gordon elliot .  !!.....10pt ew both 

Edit ...And just saw this .....

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/irish-grand-national-tips-best-antepost-value-bets-for-fairyhouse-on-monday-april-10/208193

That'll do for me !!

Edited April 6, 2023 by richard-westwood

[kensland]

Couple of Patents. 

Newcastle. 

1.15. Arabian Storm      7/2    unpl 

2.25. Berkshire Rocco     15/8    unpl 

3.55. Berkshire Shadow     11/8  1st 

stk. 3.50        rtn. 35.46.

__________________

1.30. Ling. Muzaffar        11/1   unpl

3.15. Ling.  Adeb                 11/2   unpl

1.40. Bath. Captain Shadow   11/2   unpl

stk..3.50            rtn. 365.13.

Good luck all. 

Edited April 7, 2023 by kensland

[Sporting Sam]

Japanese experiment

9 am Kawasaki

Natsu Hayate

Each way

Idealist

Win

Edited April 7, 2023 by sporting sam

[calva decoy]

1.50 Newcastle - SHOULDHAVEBEENARING 3/1 Sky ( cash back if 2nd or 3rd ) 2nd 

Bath each way Lucky 15 

215- SARAHS VERSE 10/1 ( 5 places )  1st 👍

400- DAPHNE MAY 9/2 ( 4 places ) 1st 👍

435- LITTLE HELEN 20/1 ( 4 places ) 2nd 👍

510- SEATTLE KING 5/1 ( 4 places ) 👎

Prices bet365 , I don't normally do multi's & not sure if I get b.o.g. with these taken after 8am ?

Good luck to all today , thought that the AWC's weren't that strong compared to years gone by quality of runners etc...

Edited April 7, 2023 by calva decoy

[Sporting Sam]

Japanese experiment

1st and 2nd for the previous race.

Crystal laurel win as well at the price of 4/1

Kawasaki

Crystal laurel 

And

Big parade (win)

Reverse forecast

bring strong form potentially into this race.

Big parade twice runner up to the  unbeaten idealist in last two runs.

 

Small stakes as form is of course subjective as there are lots of imponderables here but eventually once bedded down this will throw up some nice winners. (but not at these prices!)

 

Edited April 7, 2023 by sporting sam

[Sporting Sam]

Final selection

1030

Kawasaki

Higashi Brave

Each way

Good luck.

Regularly a beaten favourite here but loves this track and good third previous run here.

Well beaten elsewhere latest run.

Edited April 7, 2023 by sporting sam

[The Equaliser]

To @TheBrigadieror any other administrators:

Just to let you know that the FREE tips on the main PL home page are still not showing for today.  They were supposed to be there by 7 pm last night.  I know that you posted up your selections yesterday around 8.30 am but visitors to PL may not be aware of the Racing Chat thread.

[The Equaliser]

Lucky15

 

1.50 NC Shouldhavebeenaring 10/3

2.05 Lin Ehteyet 4/1

2.15 Bath Kensington Agent 6/1

2.25 Nc Noltons Cross 15/2

 

1 x 0.10 L15 = 1.50 poss ret 243.10

Back soon with singles bets

 

[The Equaliser]

30 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Lucky15

 

1.50 NC Shouldhavebeenaring 10/3

2.05 Lin Ehteyet 4/1

2.15 Bath Kensington Agent 6/1

2.25 Nc Noltons Cross 15/2

 

1 x 0.10 L15 = 1.50 poss ret 243.10

Back soon with singles bets

 

Singles bets

1.50 NC Perdika 1 pt win at 9.8

2.25 Nc Nolton Cross 1 pt win at 9.6

4.45 Nc Harry's Bar 1 pt ew at 9/1 4p

1.30 Lin Buxted Too 0.50ew at 12/1

2.05 Lin Diamond Bay 0.50 ew 14/1 4p

3.15 Lin Rattling 0.50 ew at 20/1 4p

3.50 Lin Dembe 0.50 ew 12/1 4 p (won the race last year)

2.15 Bath Kensington Agent 1 pt win at 10.0

2.50 Bath Hill station 0.50 ew at 17/2 4p (the Doc)

3.25 Bath Sword Beach 0.50 ew 14/1 4p

4.00 Bath Well Prepared 0.50 ew at 25/1 4p

Total stakes = 15 today

 

 

[MCLARKE]

4 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Prices bet365 , I don't normally do multi's & not sure if I get b.o.g. with these taken after 8am ?

Yes you should, the new rules are BOG is from 8 am

[MCLARKE]

AW selection

Lingfield 2.40

FINAL VOYAGE

[kensland]

Can Osin Murphy,  win on the last two race or at least get placed.

 

L15     10p ew.........with a 11/1  & 8/1.winners.

Fingers crossed.

Good luck all. 

[The Equaliser]

11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Singles bets

1.50 NC Perdika 1 pt win at 9.8

2.25 Nc Nolton Cross 1 pt win at 9.6

4.45 Nc Harry's Bar 1 pt ew at 9/1 4p

1.30 Lin Buxted Too 0.50ew at 12/1

2.05 Lin Diamond Bay 0.50 ew 14/1 4p

3.15 Lin Rattling 0.50 ew at 20/1 4p

3.50 Lin Dembe 0.50 ew 12/1 4 p (won the race last year)

2.15 Bath Kensington Agent 1 pt win at 10.0

2.50 Bath Hill station 0.50 ew at 17/2 4p (the Doc)

3.25 Bath Sword Beach 0.50 ew 14/1 4p

4.00 Bath Well Prepared 0.50 ew at 25/1 4p

Total stakes = 15 today

 

 

Missed some Oisin Murphy winners, Grrrrr.  All is not well with my bets today with just a couple of placed winners

Just one last go in the 5.00 at Lin 2 pts win on Huberts Dream at 7/2 this time with Will Buick aboard

17 pts staked today

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

One big screw up today with only 2 placed winners.  Makes my MTD now -39.75 and YTD -89.57

 

Edited April 7, 2023 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[Zilzalian]

Last year we had a notebook horses thread that did pretty well, one ofthe most successful/profitable of those highlighted was Harrys Bar who won 4 times.

[kensland]

Harry Barr & Hadd's Girl,  both ran a decent race, put them both in my tracker , will the notebook selections be brought back any time.

Cheers Ken.

[calva decoy]

4 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Yes you should, the new rules are BOG is from 8 am

It is on bet365 but not with all firms with multi's is why is asked & then read the T&C's albeit they're are a few non b.o.g .bet with them .

[MCLARKE]

36 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

It is on bet365 but not with all firms with multi's is why is asked & then read the T&C's albeit they're are a few non b.o.g .bet with them .

Yes I think some are 8, some are 9 and some are 10. I don't get out of bed till 10 so I'm alright !

[calva decoy]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

Yes I think some are 8, some are 9 and some are 10. I don't get out of bed till 10 so I'm alright !

No , what I meant is for instance I did a multi via Sky bet then there is no b.o.g.even after their 9am threshold , even bet365 have changed some of their rules with enhanced winnings / bet boosts etc... with some not b.o.g . .

Lay in until 10am 😱 oh dear 😆

[Zilzalian]

59 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

No , what I meant is for instance I did a multi via Sky bet then there is no b.o.g.even after their 9am threshold , even bet365 have changed some of their rules with enhanced winnings / bet boosts etc... with some not b.o.g . .

Lay in until 10am 😱 oh dear 😆

they wont give you 2 Calva if you take the boost/enhanced  you lose the BOG.

[MCLARKE]

On 4/7/2023 at 1:45 PM, MCLARKE said:

AW selection

Lingfield 2.40

FINAL VOYAGE

A welcome winner after a run of 11 losers at BSP 7.37

Total 41 from 168, LSP 12.23