Racing Chat-Wednesday 1st March.

[kensland]

Kempton. 

Single. 

8.00. Alternative      4/1       1st 

stk 5.00      rtn       25.00.

Lucky 15.

4.15. Winc.  Noble Savage      8/1          1st       correction     2nd .

3.55. Muss. Garde De Champ      3/1      2nd 

2.30. Ling. Expert Agent            9/4       1st 

6.00. Kemp.  Roscioli               13/2           3rd 

stk 7.50.         rtn   902.63.

Good luck all. 

 

 

Edited March 1, 2023 by kensland

[kensland]

Double. 

2.00. Ling. Kenstone      15/2        unpl

7.00. Kemp.  Papa Stour     9/2

singles & double. 

stk. 6.00.  rtn  121. 50.

Good luck all.  

Edited March 1, 2023 by kensland

[calva decoy]

12.55 Chantilly - BACCHILDE 10/1 eway sky ( 5 places ) 

1.30 Chantilly - BALSAMAND 4/1 Bet365 .

6.00 Kempton - ROSCIOLI 8/1 eway bet365 ( 4 places ) .

[MCLARKE]

Odds on selections

Wincanton	2.40	Toothless	2/5
Wincanton	4.45	Ivetwiggedit	5/6

[The Equaliser]

It is clear that once again my enthusiasm for the multiple bets has altogether consumed me. My loss in Feb was about 72 points versus a loss of around 24 points in January.  I suddenly thought last night what if I did two 3 pt L15's each day throughout March.  If they all lost I would take a hit of 186 points!!  That probably wouldn't happen but it made me think that I must make an adjustment.  What I have decided to do is limit my L15s to 1 or max 2 per week.  Mostly, an L15 will be placed on a Saturday but mid-week we do see some big meetings take place so I may be tempted by one of them.  This immediately cuts my monthly loss between 12 - 24 points which seems to be much more palatable.

I have gone for just some singles today:

2.30 Lin Talamanca 1 pt win at 15.00 with Oisin Murphy aboard

3.55 Muss Cuban Cigar 1 pt win at 6.2 to beat the hot pot favourite

6.00 Km Fat Gladiator 0.50 ew at 16/1 with Betfred 4TBP

Total points = 3 staked today

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oisin Murphy couldn't pull it off as he did so in the 8.00 at Southwell last night on Forever Dreaming at 12/1 and came 3rd.  Cuban Cigar did beat the favourite but unfortunately there were two other horses in front of it.  I do love Betfred.  Not only did I get paid out on a 4th place with Fat Gladiator but they also adjusted the odds to 25/1.  Marvelous.  This yielded a return of 3 pts so I broke even on the day.  YTD = -95.27

Skybet chat is still off line so it looks like when I use up the balance of £3.30 I may give them the elbow.  It is one thing to possibly miss out on a promotion but quite another to never be able to contact a bookmaker over a genuine query

Edited March 1, 2023 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[Sporting Sam]

 

Happy valley

1.45

 

Atomic force has been a major disappointment since coming over to Hong Kong from Kevin Ryan.

He won his maiden at Mussleburgh before winning a two year old group two race at Chantilly. He has been placed on the rock but otherwise has been unspectacular since in about seven starts.

Harry Bentley rides for the first time and the resultant seven pound drop means he just might post a decent run at last.

The main interest to me in this race is Zac Purton's runner. Season's wit 

This horse win a maiden in Australia on last run and has gone through three barrier trials winning latest by five or six lengths. 1 on turf two on awt.

The fact that it was on the all weather tempers high hopes but the preparation has been thorough and an opening mark of 63 looks about right.

 

 

Zac Purton puts up overweight by two pounds here and that will prove significant one way or the other.

Atomic force

Each way

Season's wit 

Win 

I've been wrong a few times recently so don't shoot the messenger.

https://www.thoroughbrednews.com.au/news/story/live-streaming-of-hong-kongs-meetings-116841?section=livestreaming

 

 

Edited March 1, 2023 by sporting sam

[Bang on]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

It is clear that once again my enthusiasm for the multiple bets has altogether consumed me. My loss in Feb was about 72 points versus a loss of around 24 points in January.  I suddenly thought last night what if I did two 3 pt L15's each day throughout March.  If they all lost I would take a hit of 186 points!!  That probably wouldn't happen but it made me think that I must make an adjustment.  What I have decided to do is limit my L15s to 1 or max 2 per week.  Mostly, an L15 will be placed on a Saturday but mid-week we do see some big meetings take place so I may be tempted by one of them.  This immediately cuts my monthly loss between 12 - 24 points which seems to be much more palatable.

I have gone for just some singles today:

2.30 Lin Talamanca 1 pt win at 15.00 with Oisin Murphy aboard

3.55 Muss Cuban Cigar 1 pt win at 6.2 to beat the hot pot favourite

6.00 Km Fat Gladiator 0.50 ew at 16/1 with Betfred 4TBP

Total points = 3 staked today

A win for common sense. Have a lucky 15 or trixie ... when you feel strongly enough about the selections, not because the day in question ends in a Y.

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, calva decoy said:

12.55 Chantilly - BACCHILDE 10/1 eway sky ( 5 places ) 

1.30 Chantilly - BALSAMAND 4/1 Bet365 .

6.00 Kempton - ROSCIOLI 8/1 eway bet365 ( 4 places ) .

Well Calva the theory was correct with Balsamand,ended up 8/5fav got leathered, just shows ?

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

It is clear that once again my enthusiasm for the multiple bets has altogether consumed me. My loss in Feb was about 72 points versus a loss of around 24 points in January.  I suddenly thought last night what if I did two 3 pt L15's each day throughout March.  If they all lost I would take a hit of 186 points!!  That probably wouldn't happen but it made me think that I must make an adjustment.  What I have decided to do is limit my L15s to 1 or max 2 per week.  Mostly, an L15 will be placed on a Saturday but mid-week we do see some big meetings take place so I may be tempted by one of them.  This immediately cuts my monthly loss between 12 - 24 points which seems to be much more palatable.

I have gone for just some singles today:

2.30 Lin Talamanca 1 pt win at 15.00 with Oisin Murphy aboard

3.55 Muss Cuban Cigar 1 pt win at 6.2 to beat the hot pot favourite

6.00 Km Fat Gladiator 0.50 ew at 16/1 with Betfred 4TBP

Total points = 3 staked today

Your cutting your losses before actually losing, now that's amazing. I'm sat here curious as to why you actually stake money, why not just bet "theoretically"? (example- many on here don't actually back their naps) that way you can still participate here and do your write ups.

[The Equaliser]

2 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Your cutting your losses before actually losing, now that's amazing. I'm sat here curious as to why you actually stake money, why not just bet "theoretically"? (example- many on here don't actually back their naps) that way you can still participate here and do your write ups.

Well, having done quite a bit of work, I like to stake some money on my selections.  I can't paper trade.  I would rather not look at racing at all and go do something else.  However, whilst I am only putting up a few bets during most race days in March, I am looking at various races to try and find out what it is that makes a winner.  In the 2.30 at Lin Expert agent had an extra 8 lbs but still did the business.  All fascinating stuff. 

[Zilzalian]

1 minute ago, The Equaliser said:

Well, having done quite a bit of work, I like to stake some money on my selections.  I can't paper trade.  I would rather not look at racing at all and go do something else.  However, whilst I am only putting up a few bets during most race days in March, I am looking at various races to try and find out what it is that makes a winner.  In the 2.30 at Lin Expert agent had an extra 8 lbs but still did the business.  All fascinating stuff. 

And Balsamand at Chantilly was a nailed on certainty i got 4/1 it ended up 8/5 fav and got murdered into 5th of seven beaten 5 1/2L (Trainer in red hot form, moderate race, drawn right ground okay, 7lb claimer,) @calva decoy was of a similar opinion i bet he is sat there scratching his swede just like me. Losing is part of betting right alongside winning you cant back horses and just have winners it just does not work like that as much as we would like it too.

[azzybear]

follow your heart 7.00 

[azzybear]

choisya 7.30 

[MCLARKE]

4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I can't paper trade.

Again probably another reason you lose money.

I never place a bet unless I have tested the logic of that bet over a large sample size.

[The Equaliser]

18 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Again probably another reason you lose money.

I never place a bet unless I have tested the logic of that bet over a large sample size.

Yes, I guess I'm destined to give money to the bookies so that players like yourself can make some money on the side ?

Can you please tell me how I can check what the rule 4 was on a race after the race has been over for a few hours? I couldn't seem to find by using odds checker last week.  many thanks

[MCLARKE]

Online Sports Betting & Odds ⇒ Bet Online at William Hill™

[MCLARKE]

5 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Yes, I guess I'm destined to give money to the bookies so that players like yourself can make some money on the side ?

You are right, for every winner there have to be many losers !

[Sporting Sam]

9 hours ago, sporting sam said:

 

Happy valley

1.45

 

Atomic force has been a major disappointment since coming over to Hong Kong from Kevin Ryan.

He won his maiden at Mussleburgh before winning a two year old group two race at Chantilly. He has been placed on the rock but otherwise has been unspectacular since in about seven starts.

Harry Bentley rides for the first time and the resultant seven pound drop means he just might post a decent run at last.

The main interest to me in this race is Zac Purton's runner. Season's wit 

This horse win a maiden in Australia on last run and has gone through three barrier trials winning latest by five or six lengths. 1 on turf two on awt.

The fact that it was on the all weather tempers high hopes but the preparation has been thorough and an opening mark of 63 looks about right.

 

 

Zac Purton puts up overweight by two pounds here and that will prove significant one way or the other.

Atomic force

Each way

Season's wit 

Win 

I've been wrong a few times recently so don't shoot the messenger.

https://www.thoroughbrednews.com.au/news/story/live-streaming-of-hong-kongs-meetings-116841?section=livestreaming

 

 

Group horse in a handicap.

Atomic force won @ 28/1 sp in Hong Kong 25

while other selection (season's wit) was second on Hong Kong debut.  Winner slipstreamed Season's wit and once he took the rail pulled through into the gap and won well readily.