Cheltenham 2023 Thoughts and Ideas.

[Zilzalian]

Thought it would be good to have a topic to get conversations going for the upcoming festival feel free to contribute.

I will start of with an observation from previous years. Venetia Williams always seems to do well with big price winners and places, i think you could do worse than back Royale Pagaille at the current 66/1 available on bet365 ran well last year making mistakes and this years race doesn't to these eyes look any stronger. One good round of jumping will see this beast on the premises.

[calva decoy]

38 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Thought it would be good to have a topic to get conversations going for the upcoming festival feel free to contribute.

I will start of with an observation from previous years. Venetia Williams always seems to do well with big price winners and places, i think you could do worse than back Royale Pagaille at the current 66/1 available on bet365 ran well last year making mistakes and this years race doesn't to these eyes look any stronger. One good round of jumping will see this beast on the premises.

Any rain forecast for the tip ?

If so , cracking bet though her yard bang out of form atm .

Some quality racing in Ireland this weekend may throw up a couple of clues but personally  I've not got Cheltenham fever & when it arrives I'll be bored of it by Thursday .

Edited February 1, 2023 by calva decoy

[Zilzalian]

33 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Any rain forecast for the tip ?

If so , cracking bet though her yard bang out of form atm .

Some quality racing in Ireland this weekend may throw up a couple of clues but personally  I've not got Cheltenham fever & when it arrives I'll be bored of it by Thursday .

Yes i get your point about rain but 66/1 negates that for the anti post bet purpose, ie i wouldnt touch it at 20's until the day before. VW is out of form when she wants to be or when it suits, she will have them ready by march 14th and she had a winner yesterday i think it was. I prefer the flat myself and i never have Cheltenham fever but there are lots of opportunities and at least all the horses are "on".

[calva decoy]

53 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Yes i get your point about rain but 66/1 negates that for the anti post bet purpose, ie i wouldnt touch it at 20's until the day before. VW is out of form when she wants to be or when it suits, she will have them ready by march 14th and she had a winner yesterday i think it was. I prefer the flat myself and i never have Cheltenham fever but there are lots of opportunities and at least all the horses are "on".

Unfortunately jumps racing along with the climate is changing rapidly hence lots of poor grass growth start of season saw lots of small cards & even now the term ' good ' in the going is prevalent from the North West downwards at lots of meeting which has put me off betting as much this season , as for Cheltenham , I always book a week off work though not this year , it's becoming more of a commercial hype meeting with Mullins , Elliott , Nicholls & Skelton this upcoming March taking home a large share of the £ available , still a decent watch though .

[Zilzalian]

10 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Unfortunately jumps racing along with the climate is changing rapidly hence lots of poor grass growth start of season saw lots of small cards & even now the term ' good ' in the going is prevalent from the North West downwards at lots of meeting which has put me off betting as much this season , as for Cheltenham , I always book a week off work though not this year , it's becoming more of a commercial hype meeting with Mullins , Elliott , Nicholls & Skelton this upcoming March taking home a large share of the £ available , still a decent watch though .

I agree in large part with what you are saying, i have been to the festival many times it is a special atmosphere, saw all best mates gold cups the last one, i backed sir rembrandt (without best mate) off course at 20/1 before i went i couldnt believe that price, i backed it on course and best mate just held on but i had the reverse forecast and exacta happy day although i didnt have the same spending power i have now than back then. happy days indeed. Mullins, elliot, henderson and nicholls are ruining it to a large degree like you say mopping up the dosh. I dislike ew but at cheltenham i back ew for that very reason last year i did really well on the ew. funnily enough royale pagaille let me down for a serious ew Lucky15.

[Zilzalian]

Interesting that it was said that Galopin Des Champs was being "taught" hmmm that does not sound like a gold cup winner to me or looked like one to be honest.

i like the looks of Gentleman De Mee for the champion chase at 9/1 nrnb it beat Edwardstone back end of last year and that one is 13/8

[Trotter]

I think one thing to bear in mind when you look at the Cheltenham races is to beware of horses who have been impressive in 5 or 6 runner trials with maybe  one serious rival and a few no-hopers.......... different story at the Festival with bigger fields and plenty of decent horses in every race

I like to see some evidence that my selections can cope in competitive fields, either just number of runners or number of decent quality opponents

 

[Zilzalian]

17 minutes ago, Trotter said:

I think one thing to bear in mind when you look at the Cheltenham races is to beware of horses who have been impressive in 5 or 6 runner trials with maybe  one serious rival and a few no-hopers.......... different story at the Festival with bigger fields and plenty of decent horses in every race

I like to see some evidence that my selections can cope in competitive fields, either just number of runners or number of decent quality opponents

 

Yep its a valid point, some silly results every year to leave you scratching your bonce, and for me far too much to bear in mind so i just go with instinct and what i know based on previous festivals. Last year for eg i totally changed track and just decided to go ew on big prices and i did really well even though i dislike EW with a vengeance but sometimes you have to put your prejudices aside and use common sense which as we know is not common.

[LEE-GRAYS]

4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Yep its a valid point, some silly results every year to leave you scratching your bonce, and for me far too much to bear in mind so i just go with instinct and what i know based on previous festivals. Last year for eg i totally changed track and just decided to go ew on big prices and i did really well even though i dislike EW with a vengeance but sometimes you have to put your prejudices aside and use common sense which as we know is not common.

E/w??

[MCLARKE]

12 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Yep its a valid point, some silly results every year to leave you scratching your bonce, and for me far too much to bear in mind so i just go with instinct and what i know based on previous festivals. Last year for eg i totally changed track and just decided to go ew on big prices and i did really well even though i dislike EW with a vengeance but sometimes you have to put your prejudices aside and use common sense which as we know is not common.

When the bookies offer extra places then the ew bet becomes the obvious choice

[MCLARKE]

On 2/1/2023 at 3:21 PM, Zilzalian said:

I will start of with an observation from previous years. Venetia Williams always seems to do well with big price winners and places, i think you could do worse than back Royale Pagaille at the current 66/1 available on bet365 ran well last year making mistakes and this years race doesn't to these eyes look any stronger. One good round of jumping will see this beast on the premises.

Her record over the last 9 years is 2 winners from 84 runners.

[MCLARKE]

20 hours ago, Trotter said:

I think one thing to bear in mind when you look at the Cheltenham races is to beware of horses who have been impressive in 5 or 6 runner trials with maybe  one serious rival and a few no-hopers.......... different story at the Festival with bigger fields and plenty of decent horses in every race

I like to see some evidence that my selections can cope in competitive fields, either just number of runners or number of decent quality opponents

It would appear logical that previous runs in small fields would not be ideal as a prep run for Cheltenham. The stats show the opposite.

Horses that last ran in fields of 7 or less have recorded 134 wins from 1,819 runs and show a level stakes profit. AE is 1.06

Horses that ran in bigger fields have a record of 107 from 2,183 and a big level stakes loss. AE is 0.91

[harry_rag]

56 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Horses that last ran in fields of 7 or less have recorded 134 wins from 1,819 runs and show a level stakes profit. AE is 1.06

Horses that ran in bigger fields have a record of 134 from 1,819 and a big level stakes loss. AE is 0.91

Is there an edit needed there (copy and paste error perhaps) or have both groups got exactly the same number of wins/runs?

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

Her record over the last 9 years is 2 winners from 84 runners.

Prices? and places? now here is where we differ or i should say "Pure (historical) data and how you use it" v "recent empirical data and how you use it."

[Zilzalian]

2 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Is there an edit needed there (copy and paste error perhaps) or have both groups got exactly the same number of wins/runs?

Eyes like a sh*t house rat you Harry well spotted.

[harry_rag]

1 minute ago, Zilzalian said:

Eyes like a sh*t house rat you Harry well spotted.

Was it Disraeli who spoke about "lies, damned lies, statistics and typos"? 

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Is there an edit needed there (copy and paste error perhaps) or have both groups got exactly the same number of wins/runs?

Indeed there is, the larger fields should be 107 from 2,183

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Prices? and places? now here is where we differ or i should say "Pure (historical) data and how you use it" v "recent empirical data and how you use it."

40/1 and 9/4. On soft and heavy going. It will be interesting to see what the going is like in a few weeks time. Just 4 others placed at 40/1, 6/1, 66/1 and 33/1

Thats the beauty of horse racing, so many different angles to approach it from, you use your eyes and I use stats

[Zilzalian]

17 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

40/1 and 9/4. On soft and heavy going. It will be interesting to see what the going is like in a few weeks time. Just 4 others placed at 40/1, 6/1, 66/1 and 33/1

Thats the beauty of horse racing, so many different angles to approach it from, you use your eyes and I use stats

I had to check how i made so much money last year out of VW. The flaws in your data approach are as follows they do not show 1. Early Prices & 2. extra places. eg christopher wood race paid 6 places the frustrating one for me the one that let me down on a huge ew L15 placed over the last 2 days was Royale Pagaille paid first 4 but it got collared for that and finished 5th. Pink legend 66/1 (ep) Green Book 50/1 (ep) Didaro Valis 80/1 all 1/4 the odds so 16.5/1, 12.5/1, 20/1 places just over 4000/1 with Royale Pagaille it would have returned 20,000/1 (ouch) on my 50ew lucky 15.

 

[MCLARKE]

Yep 6 or 7 places has probably been my most profitable bet over the years.