LEE-GRAYS Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Ok my pontefract picks 🤞 tonythepaint and Craig bluenose 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 1 minute ago, LEE-GRAYS said: Top bet @MCLARKE outsiders 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Two L15's & win Accas today 2.15 Hex Pipers cross 10/3 3.35 Ffos Royal dream 3/1 3.45 Pont Mauna Loa 10/3 6.45 Pont Manila Scouse 7/2 1 x 0.10 w L15 = 78.12 and 1 x 0.50 w acc 169.00 = 2 points ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3.05 Ffos Amazonian Dream 9/2 4.15 Pont My Little Queens 17/2 5.15 Pont Cold Henry 7/2 5.45 Pont Tamilla 13/2 1 x 0.10 win L15 318.96 & 0.50 win acca 881.71 = 2 points ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total = 4 points Craig bluenose 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted June 25, 2023 Author Share Posted June 25, 2023 5 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said: Top bet @MCLARKE outsiders At least one came in at 16/1 LEE-GRAYS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted June 25, 2023 Author Share Posted June 25, 2023 8 hours ago, MCLARKE said: System selections A profit of £12.83 on the day with Derry Lad winning at 16/1 and Forceful Speed at 8/1 Total out £ 466.50 Total in £ 1,743.75 Profit £ 1,277.25 LEE-GRAYS, harry_rag, Craig bluenose and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Today’s afternoon picks black rabbit, Craig bluenose and The Equaliser 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 21 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said: Top bet @MCLARKE outsiders 👍 One winner lucky 16/1 snowed in also 16/1 winner on @MCLARKE 👍 Craig bluenose, The Equaliser and MCLARKE 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted June 26, 2023 Author Share Posted June 26, 2023 System selections tonythepaint, Craig bluenose, LEE-GRAYS and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted June 26, 2023 Author Share Posted June 26, 2023 5yo selections tonythepaint, Craig bluenose and The Equaliser 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 One for this eve sorry 31 Craig bluenose and tonythepaint 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig bluenose Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 tonythepaint and LEE-GRAYS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 0.10 L15 + 0.50 w Acca = 98.21 & 320.96 = 2 pts 3.15 Chp Rhubarb 3/1 4.15 Chp Athenas Kiss 7/2 4.30 Chp Coral Reef 9/2 5.00 sou Ivetwiggedit 7/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Libby48 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Wolverhampton 7. 00 pm percale 150/1 Windsor 6:05 pm Eight Fifteen 66/1 Ballinrobe 7:20 pm Angelius Grisso 100/1 19:50 pm Summer Fly 66/1 Lucky 15 LEE-GRAYS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Rollin Rollin Rollin keep that interest rollin. MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Zilzalian said: Rollin Rollin Rollin keep that interest rollin. For those interested in things like this, that cash out went up to over £150 as Cassias price came down to 22/1. MCLARKE, Craig bluenose and LEE-GRAYS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 7.30 Wolv Isle Of Jura 13/2 8.10 Win Mucky Mulconry 13/2 8.30 Wolv Martineo 5/1 9.00 Wolv Kenilworth King 11/2 1 x 0.10 w L15 = poss ret 379.21 and 0.50 w acc poss ret 1096.88 Craig bluenose 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted June 26, 2023 Author Share Posted June 26, 2023 3 hours ago, Zilzalian said: For those interested in things like this, that cash out went up to over £150 as Cassias price came down to 22/1. I'm surprised you had two odds on shots in there after your earlier comments Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 3 hours ago, MCLARKE said: I'm surprised you had two odds on shots in there after your earlier comments Context, "most" of my comments. Well it was one of my systems and its just how it panned out luckily the 50/1 shot was also part of it and gave it a boost but the 11/1 Young Merlin winner was a notebook horse from the past i was surprised it has returned to uk for jumping and its price so included that for a beef up of the bet. interesting that 4 of 5 shortened and 1 remained the same and i don't need to tell you anything about value. Even me if i can get 10/11 about what i consider a 1/2 shot i would be fool not to take it unless i had good reason. the other thing is i advise "newbies" not to do it because it isn't viable unless they know what they are doing. Also i have actually said on here that 50/1 9/2 11/1 and shorties (favs) type of bet is ok, whereas 4 or 5 favs is a disaster on a lucky 15/31. i would suggest to you that if your prices are low for the stakes you are using then it would be wiser to either increase your stakes or move up to Lucky31 but i suppose that your still experimenting and the deviations in stakes/bett ype would bugger your data up a tad. MCLARKE, Torque and Craig bluenose 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted June 27, 2023 Author Share Posted June 27, 2023 4 hours ago, Zilzalian said: i would suggest to you that if your prices are low for the stakes you are using then it would be wiser to either increase your stakes or move up to Lucky31 but i suppose that your still experimenting and the deviations in stakes/bett ype would bugger your data up a tad. I've now had 263 L15s since I started analysing my data so I might start to have a 20p L15 on those odds which are proving most profitable (10/1 to 20/1). I am still a little nervous about the benefits of L15s despite all the evidence (I am showing a ROI of 74% compared to a loss at LSP). It appears the only logical bet to make with standard bookmakers but I have never read anybody advocating it apart from you, indeed most "experts" advise betting singles only. I will stick to lucky 15s because I think the edge on these is better than the edge on L31s (although I haven't done the maths to prove it). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 1 hour ago, MCLARKE said: I've now had 263 L15s since I started analysing my data so I might start to have a 20p L15 on those odds which are proving most profitable (10/1 to 20/1). I am still a little nervous about the benefits of L15s despite all the evidence (I am showing a ROI of 74% compared to a loss at LSP). It appears the only logical bet to make with standard bookmakers but I have never read anybody advocating it apart from you, indeed most "experts" advise betting singles only. I will stick to lucky 15s because I think the edge on these is better than the edge on L31s (although I haven't done the maths to prove it). I would suggest you have had too many in a short time frame. It would take a very long reply to outline all my reasons and logic and it would need to be quite thorough but i will sit and see if i can highlight how i do things and the various criteria i use. But one thing i will say is the "experts" advice of singles only goes back to pre computers where a winning gambler would wait at the station for the Sporting Life to come off the train then do his analysis, Job one would be which race to bet in, then go to the track where he would avoid the tax because his margins would always be much less than 10% as you know, with computers we now have the luxury of being able to analyse more races with double, triple and or more time frame with tonnes more data so it seems logical that if you have a good day on singles (think about your successful L15, class races, class horses it wasn't just luck was it? ) then that directly tells you what you would have missed out on with singles only. Just one other thing, Ask yourself. What is your strongest data point for selecting a successful horse to back in a single? As for L15 v lucky 31/63 depends on how "few" horses you come up with on a given day. Craig bluenose 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 Here’s my lossers for today The Equaliser, Craig bluenose and tonythepaint 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted June 27, 2023 Author Share Posted June 27, 2023 2 hours ago, Zilzalian said: As for L15 v lucky 31/63 depends on how "few" horses you come up with on a given day. I am "lucky" in that I normally have a lot of selections each day (30 today) although I only have serious bets on a few of them. 3 hours ago, Zilzalian said: (think about your successful L15, class races, class horses it wasn't just luck was it? ) My biggest win so far was a treble at Leicester. A lot of my bets tend to be in lower class handicaps. My ROI since I started doing L15s is 268%, long term I would be happy to achieve anything above 3% so there has been a fair slice of luck so far. Again, though, I am grateful to you for opening my eyes about L15s. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted June 27, 2023 Author Share Posted June 27, 2023 System selections tonythepaint, Craig bluenose and The Equaliser 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted June 27, 2023 Author Share Posted June 27, 2023 5yo selections The Equaliser and tonythepaint 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 1 hour ago, MCLARKE said: My ROI since I started doing L15s is 268%, long term I would be happy to achieve anything above 3% so there has been a fair slice of luck so far. What's your current overall ROI for level stakes singles and the average odds? I'll run it through the spreadsheet to see what you're return would be from L15s with average luck. As you say, I suspect you're doing better than average due to the frequency of decent wins you've experienced so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted June 27, 2023 Author Share Posted June 27, 2023 ROI is -5% and average odds is 8/1 harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 (edited) 1.45 Bev Global Effort 17/2 2.45 Bev Sunny Orange 17/2 3.15 Bev Hondo 4/1 4.00 Bri Ideal Guest 10/1 1 x 0.10 L15 793.70 & 0.25 ew acca 1251.87 = 2045.57 for 2 points Edited June 27, 2023 by The Equaliser Craig bluenose and tonythepaint 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig bluenose Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 Mine too ! tonythepaint and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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