The Oaks & The Derby

[Zilzalian]

Speed figures:-

The Oaks                            1. Nashwa                               126

                                            2. With the Moonlight          125

                                            3. Concert Hall                       122

 

The Derby                          1. Changing of the Guard      131

                                            2. West Wind Blows               125

                                            3. Royal Patronage                 124

 

Edited May 30, 2022 by Zilzalian

[Zilzalian]

@richard-westwood Would you like to use your method to rate to see if we can get a crossover/pointers?

[richard-westwood]

24 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

@richard-westwood Would you like to use your method to rate to see if we can get a crossover/pointers?

I've just this second finished the oaks ?

With the moonlight  9.2 8/1 

Emily upjohn   9.0 

Nashwa  8.5  

Thoughts of June   8.1 

Emily upjohn is most progressive and likely winner but For me the value lies with... with the moonlight ....I'm happy to just back that one ew and I'd be disappointed if she doesn't place and show,a profit 

Edited May 30, 2022 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

Derby 

Changinofguard  9.3  10/1 

Desert crown 9.0 7/4

Walk of stars   8.7 16/1

Star of india   8.7 22/1 

Royal patronage   8.4 33/1 

Some big prices ....again desert crown looks most progressive likely winner but changinofguard looks good value ew so I'm happy to ride on that one ew and an ew double with top rated in oaks ?

[Zilzalian]

31 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I've just this second finished the oaks ?

With the moonlight  9.2 8/1 

Emily upjohn   9.0 

Nashwa  8.5  

Thoughts of June   8.1 

Emily upjohn is most progressive and likely winner but For me the value lies with... with the moonlight ....I'm happy to just back that one ew and I'd be disappointed if she doesn't place and show,a profit 

Going to stick my neck out and crab Emily Upjohn, Not sure if it stays (possibly will), no speed figure of any note, not beat much and is one of the worst prices value wise i have seen this season. Given that is accurate, we have agreement on the forecast ?

[Zilzalian]

15 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Derby 

Changinofguard  9.3  10/1 

Desert crown 9.0 7/4

Walk of stars   8.7 16/1

Star of india   8.7 22/1 

Royal patronage   8.4 33/1 

Some big prices ....again desert crown looks most progressive likely winner but changinofguard looks good value ew so I'm happy to ride on that one ew and an ew double with top rated in oaks ?

For info purposes i have Desert crown in 4th on 123 so i can't crab that one.

[calva decoy]

I've backed at small stakes Charlie Appleby's NAHANNI each way at 25/1 due to the simple fact along with Royal Patronage the only two who've won at the track , NAHANNI has won here over 10f but has also won over 12f at Leicester , hasn't a chance on ratings but this course can upset the best of horses .

[richard-westwood]

10 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

I've backed at small stakes Charlie Appleby's NAHANNI each way at 25/1 due to the simple fact along with Royal Patronage the only two who've won at the track , NAHANNI has won here over 10f but has also won over 12f at Leicester , hasn't a chance on ratings but this course can upset the best of horses .

I think that's a huge plus.....so royal patronage is waaaay overpriced on the whole ....I can see him finishing top 5 so ew to 5th or 6th would be a good bet in my opinion 

[Trotter]

Charlie Appleby has supplemented Nations Pride for the Derby and is now 3rd Favourite at around 7/1

Maybe that's an indication that he's not very confident about his two horses already in the field  ........Nahanni, who won the Epsom derby trial and Walk of Stars who finished 2nd in the Lingfield trial. Neither of those pieces of form would scream 'Derby winner'

Nations Pride has already had 5 runs ...... he lost narrowly on debut and then won small races on the AW and at Meydan before winning a Listed race at Newmarket by 7 lengths in April. Most interest in him stems from a quote from Charlie Appleby where he said the horse is his most likely Derby winner after impressing on the gallops.

[calva decoy]

6 hours ago, Trotter said:

Charlie Appleby has supplemented Nations Pride for the Derby and is now 3rd Favourite at around 7/1

Maybe that's an indication that he's not very confident about his two horses already in the field  ........Nahanni, who won the Epsom derby trial and Walk of Stars who finished 2nd in the Lingfield trial. Neither of those pieces of form would scream 'Derby winner'

Nations Pride has already had 5 runs ...... he lost narrowly on debut and then won small races on the AW and at Meydan before winning a Listed race at Newmarket by 7 lengths in April. Most interest in him stems from a quote from Charlie Appleby where he said the horse is his most likely Derby winner after impressing on the gallops.

Good points albeit I think Hurricane Lane & One Ruler were far higher in Godolphin's thoughts than Adayar last year & he won well , I've had a very small each way punt on NAHANNI & ROYAL PATRONAGE , horses for courses , of all the tracks I've been to Epsom is a " blimey " from going underneath the course to get to Poormans Hill to seeing the camber where TV cameras don't do it the injustice they may both finish last & last but one but previous course winning form isn't something to be sniffed at around here  .

Edited May 31, 2022 by calva decoy

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Good points albeit I think Hurricane Lane & One Ruler were far higher in Godolphin's thoughts than Adayar last year & he won well , I've had a very small each way punt on NAHANNI & ROYAL PATRONAGE , horses for courses , of all the tracks I've been to Epsom is a " blimey " from going underneath the course to get to Poormans Hill to seeing the camber where TV cameras don't do it the injustice they may both finish last & last but one but previous course winning form isn't something to be sniffed at around here  .

Agreed! If we can't say Epsom isn't a quirky track that many horses can't/don't handle then that in itself negates all form line analysis that include "course" specifics  in ratings. Simply put if an argument is made that Epsom doesn't affect a horses chance then no track in the country affects one.

[Trotter]

Definitely see the point about track suitability which plays a big part in my form study 

But just for the sake of debate ........ 

I think as regards top class horses, ie potential Derby winners, they will probably have the attributes to handle Epsom by virtue of being top class, that is well balanced and straightforward as far as going where the jockey wants them to go and not being quirky. Ticking all the boxes is what makes them top class horses. Derby winners also win at York, Ascot, Curragh, Longchamp ...... different tracks requiring different attributes, but they win becuae they've got all the attributes.

I think the 'unusual track' argument is much more relevant to handicappers who have a wide range of attributes more likely to be suited to some tracks and not others

Finally .... the Epsom Derby Trial. If Epsom form was such a big factor you'd think the race would be the premier Derby trial but it isn't ...... trainers don't run their Derby horses in the Epsom trial and no horse has won both races for over 80 years

 

 

[calva decoy]

Looking at last year's top 3 with sp's of 16/1 , 50/1 & 6/1 all 3 very good previous course form , it's just a think outside the box jobby than backing a favourite etc... albeit Desert Crown looked superb in The Dante .

I don't fancy anything in the Oaks .

[Trotter]

5 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Looking at last year's top 3 with sp's of 16/1 , 50/1 & 6/1 all 3 very good previous course form , it's just a think outside the box jobby than backing a favourite etc... albeit Desert Crown looked superb in The Dante .

 

not sure what you mean there Calva, ....... none of last year's first 3 had ever run at Epsom before the Derby !

[Trotter]

Aidan O'Brien has 4 of the 11 runners in the Oaks 

When Aidan chucks lots of ammunition at a race I usually reckon it's because he hasn't got one that he's pretty sure is going to win ..... or he's got one that needs a real test of stamina and he wants to throw pacemakers at the race one after the other. If he had one that he was fairly confident of he'd save the other 3 for other races in the near future like the Ribblesdale, Diane, etc. And maybe it's just my aging memory playing tricks but I think O'Brien's lesser regarded runners often run much better than expected and sometimes win or place

So I quite like the 2 outsiders of the 4 .....

Thoughts of June won the Chehire Oaks, a race which Aidan normally sends one of his best ones to and the 2nd that day, Above the Curve, won a Group One race in France last weekend so that form looks solid and you know she'll get the trip

And at huge odds you've got The Algarve .... now this one ran in the Musidora and finished 9 lengths behind the Oaks favourite, Emily Upjohn. There's reason to expect her to be closer to that rival tomorrow as she was on seasonal debut whereas Emily had already had a run........... and any horse that's within a few lengths of the favourite might be placed and then if you're thereabouts you never know !

So a couple of EW punts .....

Thoughts of June - EW at 14/1 Wm Hill and others

The Algarve - EW at 100/1 bet365