Racing chat-thurs 12th May (york day 2)

[richard-westwood]

150 york 

Jaawaal  8.7  11.0 

Copper Knight  8.5  13/2 

Ready go freddie  8.2 20/1 

3x 4pt wins   12x .5 forecasts 

[The Brigadier]

York 1.50

A typical 5F York sprint handicap with 13 going to post. Michael Appleby saddles the progressive Raasel for The Horse Watchers and he has an obvious favourites chance despite a 7lb rise for his latest win at Goodwood when very well backed. He should be thereabouts but at the prices the bet has to be the course specialist Copper Knight who won the last two runnings of this race and his wins to runs record on the Knavesmire stands at 5 from 14. He looks an excellent each way bet.

 

COPPER KNIGHT 1 point each way @ 6/1 william Hill 1/5^th 12345

 

Salisbury 2.05

There’s also a six runner class 3 0-90 three year old handicap covered on ITV this afternoon with James Ferguson saddling the likely favourite in Viadelamore, a winner at Redcar on his seasonal re-appearance and now 5lb higher. Andrew Balding sends an interesting handicap debutant in Teumessias Fox who could be competitive but it’s the Harry and Roger Charlton trained bottom weight Brayden Star who’s maybe worth a small wager here. He was slowly away on his handicap debut in a decent three year old handicap at Newmarket at the Craven meeting and ran on to finish a 9 1/4L 8th of 15 to Tranquil Night. The 2nd and the 9th have both won since franking the form and with that run behind him he looks a value play here.

 

BRAYDEN STAR 1 point win @ 15/2 William Hill

 

 

York 2.25

Six fillies go to post for this group 2 10F Middleton Fillies Stakes. Sir Michael Stoute saddles a brace in Ville De Grace who was just touched off in the Dahlia Stakes last time out by Dreamloper and the Juddmonte owned Noon Star who stuck on well to win a listed contest on her re-appearance at Nottingham. The former is the preferred of the pair and should be thereabouts today. The trip looks on the short side for the Irish challenger Forbearance trained by Jessie Harrington. The other Irish challenger is the Ger Lyons trained Thunder Kiss who’s officially the highest rated of the sextet here. She impressed winning a listed race at Cork on her re-appearance and is another that should be involved in the finish. Not an easy race to crack but with a run under her belt its Ville De Grace for me.

 

VILLE DE GRACE 2 points win @ 10/3 William Hill

 

York 3.00

A competitive renewal of the 1m class 2 Hambleton Handicap with 15 going to post. Top weight Brunch was just touched off in this last year and is back to avenge that defeat off of a 3lb higher mark. His course figures here read 1127 and comes here on the back of a career best 3rd in the Group 3 Earl Of Sefton at Newmarket. He should run a big race. Nigel Tinkler is slowly getting going with his string (had a winner on Tuesday at Newcastle) and his Isla Kai ran an eye catching 4th on his re-appearance in the Spring Cup and looks to have a good chance if overcoming his wide draw. Trais Fluors got no sort of run in the Thirsk Hunt Cup last time out and is another with claims along with others. I’ll split my stake between Brunch and Trais Fluors.

 

BRUNCH 1 point each way @ 17/2 William Hill 1/5^th 12345

TRAIS FLUORS 1 point each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5^th 12345

 

York 3.35

This year’s Dante Stakes, run over 1m 2F 56yds has attracted a field of 9. Sir Michael Stoute’s Desert Crown has been a Derby gamble over the last week having been backed from as big as 33/1 into 6/1 and looks poor value here having only won a Nottingham maiden on soft ground (all be it in decent style)last November. James Ferguson’s El Bodegon beat the current Derby favourite Stone Age in the Criterium de Saint Cloud on very soft ground last October but has to prove himself on this better ground. The Gosden runner Magisterial did it well enough on his re-appearance at Leicester but this like the favourite this represents a big step up in class. Aidan O’Brien’s representative Bluegrass looks rather exposed and the horse that I’m interested in is the Mark and Charlie Johnstone trained Royal Patronage. Mark Johnstone has won this contest twice in the last five years and his runner is the officially highest rated in the field though can currently be backed at a decent price. He beat this seasons 2000 Guineas winner Coroebus in the Group 2 Royal Lodge at Newmarket last September before bombing out on soft ground in the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster. He made his re-appearance as a 33/1 chance in the 2000 guineas when finishing a credible 8th of 15 beaten 6 1/2L. With that run under his belt and a step up in trip likely to suit with his dam a 10/12F winner in France he looks good each way value.

 

ROYAL PATRONAGE 2 points each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5^th 123

 

York 4.10

8 go to post for this listed Weston Stakes run over the minimum trip of 5F. Aidan O’Brien saddles a interesting runner in King Of Bavaria who’s already had a run this year and although not much ahead of the field on ratings will be hard to beat as a lightly raced son of No Nay Never who has all the future fancy group entries. Kevin Ryan’s Boonie beat subsequent winner Mitbaahy at Nottingham last time and looks the danger.

 

KING OF BAVARIA 2 points win @ 7/4 Ladbrokes/Coral