Labrador Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 I feel the bookies may be pretty light on the handicaps for Wales v Cook Islands on 19th October. The Cook Islands World Cup squad here: https://www.loverugbyleague.com/post/cook-islands-rugby-league-world-cup-squad/ The Welsh: Caleb Aekins (Leigh Centurions), Bailey Antrobus (York City Knights), Gavin Bennion (Rochdale Hornets), Joe Burke (West Wales Raiders), Chester Butler (Bradford Bulls), Mike Butt (Swinton Lions), Connor Davies (Workington Town), Curtis Davies (Whitehaven), Ben Evans (Bradford Bulls), Kyle Evans (Wakefield Trinity), Rhys Evans (Bradford Bulls), Will Evans (Whitehaven), Dan Fleming (Featherstone Rovers), Matty Fozard (Widnes Vikings), Dalton Grant (London Broncos), Tom Hopkins (Barrow Raiders), Elliot Kear (captain – Bradford Bulls), Rhodri Lloyd (Swinton Lions), James Olds (Valley Diehards), Ollie Olds (Valley Diehards), Josh Ralph (Mounties), Luis Roberts (Leigh Centurions), Anthony Walker (Bradford Bulls), Rhys Williams (Salford Red Devils). Seems to be generally a large gulf in class so the -14 (Hills) and -16 (general) handicaps seem rather generous regardless of weather conditions a week next Wednesday. My hunch is the handicap could be nearer 30 come the day. Wales v Cook Islands (-14) at 10/11 (Hills). harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Labrador Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Looking for a bit of value in the Greece top tryscorer market? it might be worth throwing a few quid at Lachlan Ilias who is 16/1 with skybet and Bet365. Greece are up against France, Samoa and England. They could conceivably get nilled against Samoa and England, although complaceny by Samoa and England might give Greece a chance to score a try or two if they fail in their opening (easiest on paper) match v France. Ilias plays at half back for South Sydney Rabbitohs and managed to cross 6 times last season. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 17, 2022 Author Share Posted October 17, 2022 On 10/13/2022 at 6:34 PM, Labrador said: Looking for a bit of value in the Greece top tryscorer market? it might be worth throwing a few quid at Lachlan Ilias who is 16/1 with skybet and Bet365. Greece are up against France, Samoa and England. They could conceivably get nilled against Samoa and England, although complaceny by Samoa and England might give Greece a chance to score a try or two if they fail in their opening (easiest on paper) match v France. Ilias plays at half back for South Sydney Rabbitohs and managed to cross 6 times last season. 6/1 anytime and 8 to buy with SPIN tonight, I've ventured a split stakes approach for an interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Labrador Posted October 17, 2022 Share Posted October 17, 2022 ??? Should be decent conditions at Doncaster this evening for France v Greece with the likelihood that the French might run in several tries. For me I think their quicksilver half-back Arthur Morgue is worth a punt to score a try at 6/4 (Hills). Also forward Mickael Goudemand has crashed over a few times for Catalan Dragons this season and is perhaps a bit of value at 5/1 (Spreadex) and 9/2 elsewhere. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 17, 2022 Author Share Posted October 17, 2022 Morgue 7/4 Unibet; have followed you on him. Won't risk jinxing you on Goudemand as I'd struggle to get much on at the decent prices. Labrador 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 18, 2022 Author Share Posted October 18, 2022 Mourgue try enough for a profit on the game. Unusual situation with tonight’s game between Tonga and Papa New Guinea, with the latter being 26 point underdogs despite holding a 7-0 head to head record. The RP tip Johnston for a try at 13/5 and I’ve followed at 3/1 (available with 365 and Fred). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Labrador Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 PNG hooker Edwin Ipape and Championship player of the year has been scoring for fun for Leigh Centurions this season so have bought his try minutes at 10. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 18, 2022 Author Share Posted October 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, Labrador said: PNG hooker Edwin Ipape and Championship player of the year has been scoring for fun for Leigh Centurions this season so have bought his try minutes at 10. I'd say that beats the best anytime prices par the standout 7/1 with PP or BFS. I'd favour the 7/1 for anyone able to get better than, ooh say, £1.43 on! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Labrador Posted October 18, 2022 Share Posted October 18, 2022 1 minute ago, harry_rag said: I'd say that beats the best anytime prices par the standout 7/1 with PP or BFS. I'd favour the 7/1 for anyone able to get better than, ooh say, £1.43 on! £1.43 with Sportsbook for me . I think there's a strong chance he'll play the full 80 mins so I'm happy with a bet on the spreads. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Labrador Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 Ipape awarded man of the match and manages a touch down - but 3 inches short . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Labrador Posted October 19, 2022 Share Posted October 19, 2022 I'm already backing Cook Islands on the handicap this evening with the tentative expectation that they will dominate their inferior (on paper) Wales opponents in the last quarter. For further interest I've looked at tryscorer prices for an impact Cook Islands forward to come off the bench and perhaps run through a tired Wales pack. At 9/1 (Spreadex) I've backed Mahahesi Makatoa who is signed up with Parramatta Eels until the end of 2024 so must be held in some regard. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 22, 2022 Author Share Posted October 22, 2022 A couple of interesting prices with Lads for players to score a try in each half for New Zealand v Jamaica later. New Zealand are pretty much 75 point favourites for this game although the RP think the trend for the dogs to win with the start will continue. I've backed Watene-Zelezniak at 9/4 and Kris at 5/2. If you only wanted to follow on one then the spread prices suggest Kris is by far the better bet (he's 108-112 while W-Z is "only" 80-86). My "magic calculator" suggests true odds of more like 2.8 and 2.05 respectively. By comparison, Lads go 10/11 and evens for the hat tricks (best prices on Odds Checker being 8/5 and 7/4) where my true prices are 3.6 and 2.3. Even allowing for reasonable doubt about the accuracy of my spreadsheet I'm happy with the W-Z price and delighted with the Kris one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 22, 2022 Author Share Posted October 22, 2022 W-Z hat trick after 19 minutes (save one for later mate) and Kris dots down just before the break so both bets still live for the 2nd half. Hopefully one or both have got another try up their sleeve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Labrador Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 15 hours ago, harry_rag said: W-Z hat trick after 19 minutes (save one for later mate) and Kris dots down just before the break so both bets still live for the 2nd half. Hopefully one or both have got another try up their sleeve. Good shout with W-Z and unlucky with Kris. The Samoan who impressed me most against England was full-back, Joseph Suaalii who is something of a prodigy with Sydney Rooster in the NRL. He is still only 19 and has scored 16 tries in 24 appearances in the NRL. He consistently broke through English tackles but frequently ended up dropping the ball or losing control. He should have far less difficulty against the Greeks this evening. The Met Office suggest conditions should be decent by 5pm KO time, and I reckon the Samoans will be all out to make up for their drubbing by England. Suaalii's fixed odds prices to score even a hat-trick are prohibitive in my view, so I've bought his try minutes at 53 with Spreadex. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 23, 2022 Author Share Posted October 23, 2022 54 minutes ago, Labrador said: Suaalii's fixed odds prices to score even a hat-trick are prohibitive in my view, so I've bought his try minutes at 53 with Spreadex. Good luck. Lads go 6/4 for him to score a 1st half try which looks at least fair to me compared to his try minutes prices. Might dovetail nicely with your buy given the possibility of him only scoring early and landing below the spread. I could make a case for the 5/4 they offer for To'o being ok (my "true" odds being more like 11/10) but I think I'll just go with the one bet on a player who the spreads have at a similar price to To'o : Ken Sio to score a 1st half try at 7/4 with Lads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Labrador Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 Unfortunately cannot bet with Ladbrokes but have found a modest bet at 5/2 (skybet) for Joseph Suaalii to score a try in each half. Good luck with Ken Sio, harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 23, 2022 Author Share Posted October 23, 2022 2 hours ago, Labrador said: Good luck with Ken Sio, Not starting so bet should be void. Not bad for my sell of their hotshots at 142 (down to 115-125 now). Feagai his replacement if I'm not mistaken. Market seems to have reacted mostly but I've taken 14/1 for him to get a hat-trick with Betway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 24, 2022 Author Share Posted October 24, 2022 Sio bet void, small loss on the Feagai hat trick (he just got the one) and an 84 point profit on the hotshots sell (made up at 58 for 2 tries and a "non-runner"). 3 bets on the 2 big guns for Tonga v Wales: Katoa first half try at 6/4 with Lads and a try in both halves at 11/4 with Sky Bet Tupou first half try at 13/8 with Lads (both halves is also 11/4 with Sky Bet but doesn't look quite big enough for him) Their spread prices are 70-72 and 62-64 respectively. I'd make the true odds for the 1st half tries 2.02 and 2.18 and the both halves bet 3.46 and 4.02. I'm also a seller of Tongan hotshots at 113 (those 2 plus Penisini and Kouala) so there are a variety of ways this one can play out! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Labrador Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 Well played with sell of Samoan hotshots - I think it's very brave to sell this market against a team like Greece. Having said that, Joseph Suaalii barely registered in an attacking sense - very strange! Good luck with Tonga bets. Wales were better than expected against Cook Islands and Tonga were fortunate in my view to come out on top against PNG. However, like Samoa last night, I feel they may keep the foot on the jugular this evening and rack up a big score. I've just kept things simple with a bet on Tongan (and St Helens) juggernaut Konrad Hurrell to score a try at 5/6 (Bet 365). Also had a modest dabble on Hurrell to score 3+ tries at 12/1. New ground broken in this game with the first time a woman has reffed a men's test match. She is Kasey Badger who has NRL experience. [No doubt she will enjoy the SETTS? of six]. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 24, 2022 Author Share Posted October 24, 2022 17 minutes ago, Labrador said: Well played with sell of Samoan hotshots - I think it's very brave to sell this market against a team like Greece. I know what you mean, though it's not that often you will see such a high price. I just sell where my criteria are met, it takes all the subjectivity out of it. At that sort of price a non-runner being worth 8 points is obviously a nice bonus. 21 minutes ago, Labrador said: New ground broken in this game with the first time a woman has reffed a men's test match. She is Kasey Badger who has NRL experience. [No doubt she will enjoy the SETTS? of six]. I was already formulating my own gag before I reached then end of the sentence! Something like I imagine she'll be all sett! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 25, 2022 Author Share Posted October 25, 2022 Tupou 1st half try makes it pretty much break even on the fixed odds bets (backed the wrong horse in terms of scoring in both halves unfortunately). 30 points profit on the hotshots sell. On 10/18/2022 at 5:45 PM, Labrador said: PNG hooker Edwin Ipape and Championship player of the year has been scoring for fun for Leigh Centurions this season so have bought his try minutes at 10. RP tip for 1st tryscorer e/w tonight, the 12/5 anytime with PP looks interesting and, bearing in mind your comments and theirs, I've had the small stake allowed. Will see if anything else appeals now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 28, 2022 Author Share Posted October 28, 2022 New Zealand v Ireland: Mulitalo to score a 1st half try at 31/20 with Lads. More like an 11/10 shot for me. 3/1 for a try in both halves looks ok too (I'd go 11/4) but a bigger edge on the selection so I'll stick to that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Labrador Posted October 29, 2022 Share Posted October 29, 2022 Difficult to find any value in today's seemingly one-sided matches. Mike McIlorum is not in the England squad against Greece which suggests that Andy Ackers will have a long stint at hooker/dummy half. Have split stakes between a buy of his try minutes at 27 and his super minutes at 43 (Spreadex). Very striking for Fiji both for his dyed blonde hair and his try-scoring has been Viliame Kikau. Have backed him to score 2 or more v Scotland at 13/5 (Spreadex). [He may conceivably be rested and kept for the quarter final against the Kiwis]. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 29, 2022 Author Share Posted October 29, 2022 1 hour ago, Labrador said: Difficult to find any value in today's seemingly one-sided matches. Mike McIlorum is not in the England squad against Greece which suggests that Andy Ackers will have a long stint at hooker/dummy half. Have split stakes between a buy of his try minutes at 27 and his super minutes at 43 (Spreadex). Good luck, I'm ploughing a familiar furrow with these 3 bets (all with Lads). Hall 1st half try at 7/5 Young 1st half try at 5/4 Young try in both halves at 5/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 29, 2022 Author Share Posted October 29, 2022 And again for Fiji (the Sivo prices look particularly good). Sivo 1st half try 33/20 Sivo try in both halves 9/2 Naiqama 1st half try 11/4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 29, 2022 Author Share Posted October 29, 2022 Well done on the nice late brace of Ackers tries @Labrador Done the later game as well, Australia v Italy: Taulagi 1st half try at 6/5 Taulagi try in both halves at 11/4 Graham 1st half try at 6/5 Burton 1st half try at 7/4 Labrador 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Labrador Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 Well done with Graham and (first) Taulagi bets. I'm a bit surprised that the handicaps are so high for Samoa v France. At evens (Coral) I've taken France (+28). harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 30, 2022 Author Share Posted October 30, 2022 24 minutes ago, Labrador said: I'm a bit surprised that the handicaps are so high for Samoa v France. At evens (Coral) I've taken France (+28). Will have a look at that one as it does look high. Just enlisted the 1st game starts soon. A couple of the usual for the Lebanon likely lads: Mansour and Miski first half try at 9/5 each and try in both halves at 9/2 each. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 30, 2022 Author Share Posted October 30, 2022 2 hours ago, harry_rag said: Just enlisted the 1st game starts soon. A couple of the usual for the Lebanon likely lads: Mansour and Miski first half try at 9/5 each and try in both halves at 9/2 each. Assuming sources are correct the last gasp Miski try would appear to have landed the full house! Labrador 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted October 30, 2022 Author Share Posted October 30, 2022 Sorry to be predictable but let's go to the well again for the top two Tongans! I'm on both Tupou and Katoa for 1st half tries at 9/5 and 21/10 Tupou TBH is 9/2 but that looks about right rather than a bit too big. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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