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Rugby League Bets 2022


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Some random musings on the player markets for St Helens v Catalans later.

Saints hotshots are priced at 43-44 and my "true" value is 43.3. Catalans are 28-31 and 29.36. So, in both cases, my "true" price (based on the player try minutes quotes) is within the spread. On that basis, I'd say the hotshots prices look "technically correct". I'd be interested to see if that's usually the case throughout the season as, in my experience, it certainly isn't when it comes to Rugby Union hotshots.

In terms of anytime trycorer prices, I can't find a single price that looks too big compared to the spreads. (To be fair, I don't do that well selecting bets in that way, but if no prices even look like they might be value on that basis then I'd say it's not a backer's market in tonight's game.)

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4 minutes ago, Labrador said:

Saints new full back Jack Welsby is a dynamic attacking player who could get a few opportunities this evening. Just about worth a dabble to score a try at 13/8.

Good luck. His try minutes might be better value at 19 but all about when and how many he scores. Given it’s a marathon not a sprint I’ll play the “no bet” card for the curtain raiser. 

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Cheers?.

Have had a small buy of Joey Lussick at 8. Has been signed as cover for hooker James Roby who often plays for the whole game. However, it may be that Roby will be increasingly "preserved" given his advancing years. It's conceivable that Lussick might have nearly 40 mins on the pitch or at least play against tiring opponents in the last quarter of the game. Has a decent try-scoring record - notably for Salford. Could well have some darts from dummy half near Cats' line.

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In tonight's TV game conditions look good ahead of the weekend's forecast heavy rain. Hoping that Hull KR will play their usual expansive, attacking style and that their visitors Wigan will not yet have adapted to several personnel changes and one or two key absentees through injury. Perhaps worth a buy of Hull KR's multi-points at 87.

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53 minutes ago, Labrador said:

With Blake Austin making his debut for a depleted Leeds at Wigan this evening in very windy conditions it looks as if 40/20's could be on the cards. Worth a crack at 100/30 for a successful 40/20 if anyone can bet with Hills.

Having googled what exactly a 40/20 is (probably not for the first time) I'm conclusively in agreement with you! :$

I've had 15 points at 10/3.

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26 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Having googled what exactly a 40/20 is (probably not for the first time) I'm conclusively in agreement with you! :$

I've had 15 points at 10/3.

The same firm also have 16/1 for both a successful 40/20 and a successful drop goal. That bet is only 9/1 with skybet. Given a potentially close game in tricky conditions, that could be worth a dabble.

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Just now, Labrador said:

The same firm also have 16/1 for both a successful 40/20 and a successful drop goal. That bet is only 9/1 with skybet. Given a potentially close game in tricky conditions, that could be worth a dabble.

Saw that and had 4 points (2 points of it a freebie) but was shy of posting it! :lol

Sky only 6/4 for the DG I think, versus 3/1 Hills.

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3 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Saw that and had 4 points (2 points of it a freebie) but was shy of posting it! :lol

Sky only 6/4 for the DG I think, versus 3/1 Hills.

I was permitted 1.5 "points" at the 16/1 - generous by Hills' standards?. I was allowed more than expected on the 40/20 bet (6 "points") so have topped up with skybet at 3/1. Good luck with Cust (who could also come to our aid on the 40/20 front).

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Having watched a fair bit of the televised RL so far this season I have been particularly impressed by the attacking flair of Hull KR's half-back, Mikey Lewis. This evening Rovers entertain Castleford in what should be very good playing conditions suitable for an attacking game. Lewis is a bit of value for me to score a try at 3/1 with Hills and Unibet.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Kay to score a try for Wakefield looks big at 5/4 in a few places. Him and Johnstone are both quoted in the 40s for try minutes which would usually correspond with an odds on quote for anytime. Johnstone is indeed 4/6 best so I can't resist an interest in Kay at the bigger price.

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  • 2 months later...
  • 3 weeks later...

Clash of the top 2 teams in the Championship on Premier Sports TV this evening with Leigh hosting Featherstone Rovers. Although the home side are favourites, I reckon there must be value in Fev's half-back, Ryley Jacks to score a try. In 8 games since the start of April Jacks has only failed to touch down in one of them and has amassed 13 tries, including two hat-tricks and two braces. Obviously he's up against the toughest opponents this evening but for me is still worth a bet to score at 7/2 (Hills, Bet 365).

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  • 3 weeks later...

It's worth checking out the weather around Sydney over the weekend. Forecast for torrential rain and very high winds.

Should point to some unders bets in the NRL. The one I favour is Rabbitohs v Eels at the Accor Stadium which kicks off at 5.35 Aussie time to coincide with the worst of the weather. I've sold match multi-points at 376 (SX). SPIN only 2 points lower at 374.

[Pity the RU International is in Perth].

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Annoying that the game I quoted as most favourable had a multis make up of 432 despite being played on a quasi-paddy field, when the other Sydney match (Bulldogs v Sharks) made up at only 144.

The weather is not relenting tomorrow so I'm also having a crack at the game at Wollongong between Dragons and Raiders. I've backed under 37.5 match points at evens (skybet) and split stakes with sells of multi-points at 317 (SPIN) and cross-points at 316 (SX). With neither side yet reaching 300 points scored for the season to date, hopefully the terrible weather will mean they have to wait another two or three games to reach that milestone.

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Well I was on the verge of posting a "shoot me next time you see me considering a RL tryscorer bet" when Armitage pops up with Toulouse's 7th try right at the death. Still a market best played in moderation though I think.

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Gone for McQueen to score a try in the Huddersfield v Salford game at 23/10 PP (12/5 if you're that mythical beast that can get a bet on with Boyles).

SPIN have his try minutes at 27-30 implying they rate him at around a 6/5 shot while SX are only 16-19 which is more like 9/4. You could combine their prices and say that pitches him around the 6/4 mark.

Personally I'd say that I don't think he should be any bigger than 2/1.

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:ok 26 minutes a more acceptable time to wait for a winner! Might end up regretting not playing the brace again though, in the long run, I think there's a better chance of a positive return from sticking to anytime.

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On 7/10/2022 at 12:35 PM, harry_rag said:

Gone for McQueen to score a try in the Huddersfield v Salford game at 23/10 PP (12/5 if you're that mythical beast that can get a bet on with Boyles).

SPIN have his try minutes at 27-30 implying they rate him at around a 6/5 shot while SX are only 16-19 which is more like 9/4. You could combine their prices and say that pitches him around the 6/4 mark.

Personally I'd say that I don't think he should be any bigger than 2/1.

5/1 PP or 9/2 Hills tonight v St Helens. Far too big for me even allowing for the more exalted opposition. Half those odds or less in most places. I've accidently overstaked this by typing a 9 instead of a 0! Luckily it was the final digit!

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  • 2 weeks later...

Leeds Rhinos Hotshots (Fusitu'a, Hardaker, Handley, Newman) might be worth a buy at 39 with SPIN later.

Only SX have priced up the try minutes and they suggest a "true" value of 47.7 and a minimum of 44.2.

Over Leeds last 9 games (May-July) I make it that the lowest total you'd have seen would've been 16 (2 non-participants) and the highest 158 with an average of 42.3.

Admittedly you'd have only won 3 times and lost 6 but, all in all, I'd say the price looks a few points too low.

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  • 3 weeks later...
  • 1 month later...
2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Grand Final time, it would be rude not to have an interest on a quiet International weekend.

...................................

Drop goal scored at 13/5 with Lads

...................................

 

Very unlucky with Lomax hitting upright with a drop goal attempt near the end.

Roll on the World Cup in a few weeks.

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